TMQ on Pats running game

[SVN]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/071127

For the game, New England coaches called 60 passes (attempts plus sacks and scrambles) versus 13 rushes. Why do the Patriots pass so much? It's not because the team cannot run; New England is seventh in the league in rushing yards per game (11th in yards per carry). Bill Belichick might simply figure that because passing plays gain on average more than rushing plays, might as well pass. On Sunday night, New England averaged 6.3 yards per called pass, 2.5 yards per rush; for the season, the only undefeated team is averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 4.1 yards per rush. Belichick might reason: If my average pass gains twice as much as my average rush, why not call pass after pass after pass? Of course, you need a magnificent offensive line for this strategy.

 

[holyredeemer]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/071127

and we all know that the right side of our o-line is far from magnificent.

People in the media are over reacting to our offensive gameplan against the eagles. I mean, how do these guys get paid money to be analysts? Doesn't everyone know by now that this coaching staff prepares for each game differently? We can pass it 60 times one week, then the next week go out there and pound the ball all night. BB and company are going to do whatever they believe is going to give us the best chance to win.

I had to go to work last night and listen to my boss banter on and on for over 20 minutes about how the eagles have created a "blueprint" for playing against this team. That's ridiculous. After one game? The Colts almost beat us too. Where's their "blueprint"?

 

[Oswlek]

While NE's OL has certainly been magnificent over the entire season, I'm not sure that they lived up to those standards against Philly.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Honestly, I worry about a high wind game or a game like Pitt-Fish.

Yes, the Pats have the 11th best ypc avg. But how much of that is because of a great RB and o-line and how much of that is because nobody defends NE rush? Other teams def coordinators know that the Pats throw the ball a lot more than they run and also know the Pats get a lot more yards on passes than runs.

So they triple team Moss and double team Welker, that doesn't leave many folks left to defend the rush.

But I don't know if b/c of weather the long pass was eliminated if the Pats could move the ball well if the other team was actually focused on defending the rush. Getting a few yards rushing when the entire defense is focused on the pass is not the hallmark of a great rushing offense.

 

[Brownfan80]

While NE's OL has certainly been magnificent over the entire season, I'm not sure that they lived up to those standards against Philly.

I don't think they did. But then they were handicapped by the defense knowing what to attack over and over and over.

Our pass protection is not going to be helped by defenses being able to tee off on play after play.

Brady paid the price vs Philly, IMO.

 

[Oswlek]

Honestly, I worry about a high wind game or a game like Pitt-Fish.

Yes, the Pats have the 11th best ypc avg. But how much of that is because of a great RB and o-line and how much of that is because nobody defends NE rush? Other teams def coordinators know that the Pats throw the ball a lot more than they run and also know the Pats get a lot more yards on passes than runs.

So they triple team Moss and double team Welker, that doesn't leave many folks left to defend the rush.

But I don't know if b/c of weather the long pass was eliminated if the Pats could move the ball well if the other team was actually focused on defending the rush. Getting a few yards rushing when the entire defense is focused on the pass is not the hallmark of a great rushing offense.

Actually, if anything, the opposite is true. Because NE plays Faulk on passing downs regularly, when Maroney is in the game he runs on a higher percentage of plays than most RBs. Pay attention to just how often teams send a run blitzer when Maroney is on the field. Teams most certainly don't ignore the run when he is in there.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Actually, if anything, the opposite is true. Because NE plays Faulk on passing downs regularly, when Maroney is in the game he runs on a higher percentage of plays than most RBs. Pay attention to just how often teams send a run blitzer when Maroney is on the field. Teams most certainly don't ignore the run when he is in there.

I hope you are right, but you can't defend everything and it seem like most team are focusing on Moss and welker and not the run def.

Only one way to find out bad weather game. We will find out then.

 

[Metaphors]

Simply amazing. You all seriously think that Belichick works 20 hour days to get homefield advantage in the playoffs but hasn't considered the weather might be bad in Foxborough in January? If these things seem obvious to you with 15 seconds of thought, you think the Pats coaching staff will be caught by surprise when it counts the most?

These are just battles. You can't win the war until February.

 

[patsox23]

Simply amazing. You all seriously think that Belichick works 20 hour days to get homefield advantage in the playoffs but hasn't considered the weather might be bad in Foxborough in January? If these things seem obvious to you with 15 seconds of thought, you think the Pats coaching staff will be caught by surprise when it counts the most?

These are just battles. You can't win the war until February.

Thank you for posting something SANE. The idea that somehow Bill Belichick doesn't know more than us, and more than the mediots, on what it takes to WIN in this league, and how good and/or important the running game is, is downright ABSURD. People need to wake up.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Simply amazing. You all seriously think that Belichick works 20 hour days to get homefield advantage in the playoffs but hasn't considered the weather might be bad in Foxborough in January? If these things seem obvious to you with 15 seconds of thought, you think the Pats coaching staff will be caught by surprise when it counts the most?

These are just battles. You can't win the war until February.

I am sure he is aware of it. And I am sure he will have a game plan to cope with it. But, I am not sure if he has the personnel to execute an all ground game.

Will the Pats rollover and die? - NO. But a very windy day against a very good team, that also has an excellent game plan could be the doom of the Patriots.

And even if BB had concluded that the Pats would be better off in a dome in January than at the Razor, what is he going to do, tell the team to throw the game against the Colts? That would be insane.

I expect that the Pats will come out with great game plans each game, but I am more worried about a high wind game then any other scenario. And the Pats are a great team, but not invincible.

 

[primetime]

Maybe because if Laurence Maroney carries the ball all of 100 times in the regular season, he'll be running on super-fresh legs in the playoffs?

 

[Oswlek]

I don't think they did. But then they were handicapped by the defense knowing what to attack over and over and over.

Our pass protection is not going to be helped by defenses being able to tee off on play after play.

Brady paid the price vs Philly, IMO.

But NE passed a lot to open the Buffalo game as well.

I don't think it is that much of an issue. I just think they didn't play as well as they have most of the year.

 

[FrontSeven]

People need to wake up.

Don't hold yer breath.

 

[RayClay]

If my average pass gains twice as much as my average rush, why not call pass after pass after pass? Of course, you need a magnificent offensive line for this strategy.

I can't believe this guy actually gets paid to write about sports.

 

[Fencer]

Yes, the Pats have the 11th best ypc avg. But how much of that is because of a great RB and o-line and how much of that is because nobody defends NE rush? Other teams def coordinators know that the Pats throw the ball a lot more than they run and also know the Pats get a lot more yards on passes than runs.

So they triple team Moss and double team Welker, that doesn't leave many folks left to defend the rush.

... Getting a few yards rushing when the entire defense is focused on the pass is not the hallmark of a great rushing offense.

Well-argued. And 11th isn't that great anyway.

Although -- it they're higher in total yards than in YPC, then the percentage of their plays that are runs is HIGHER than the league norm. Weird ... I guess it comes from being ahead big so much. But then many of their runs are when teams know the run is coming, so that DEPRESSES their YPC.

It's all connected.

 

[apricissimus]

f my average pass gains twice as much as my average rush, why not call pass after pass after pass?

You need some kind of running threat to keep the defense honest. Football 101. Even the Patriots offense isn't good enough to throw on every down.

 

[bbabin]

You need some kind of running threat to keep the defense honest. Football 101. Even the Patriots offense isn't good enough to throw on every down.

Except we did that and won. Maybe our offense is good enough for that. I don't really understand the complaints about our lack of running. In what football tome does it say that there must be a balance between running and passing. I understand that running keeps defenses honest, but we ran very few times in the first half, and scored on all three possessions.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Except we did that and won.

Barely. Unless you define a 3 point win as complete domination.
A balanced attack keeps the defense honest.
I think the Pats will try to go back to a more balanced attack against Baltimore.
The only question is can Maroney step up and answer the call?

 

[Denzera]

Just for grins, TMQ's note about needing a magnificent offensive line was a follow-up to the immediately preceding paragraph, also splooging about New England:

The Patriots defense seemed to relax a little with Donovan McNabb out, so the Flying Elvii are not totally, absolutely perfect. Philadelphia was the first team this season to do what TMQ keeps calling for -- jamming Randy Moss -- and the tactic worked, with Moss looking human and making no big catch. Philadelphia blitzed the Patriots far more than any team has in 2007, sending six on perhaps two-thirds of New England downs, and this tactic somewhat rattled Tom Brady, who was sacked three times. Though note the magnificent New England offensive line mostly handled the heavy blitzing, and guard Stephen Neal -- an undrafted perennial first-teamer on TMQ's All-Unwanted All-Pros -- had a perfect downfield block on a third-and-long screen pass to Wes Welker. What was the New England offensive line's secret for handling the blitz? Each lineman just picked the guy directly in front of him and blocked like crazy. New England offensive linemen never take a down off or brush their guys then stand around passively watching, which is common among offensive lines of many NFL teams. That New England offensive linemen always maintain contact till the whistle is one of the keys to the Patriots' success.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Well-argued. And 11th isn't that great anyway.

Although -- it they're higher in total yards than in YPC, then the percentage of their plays that are runs is HIGHER than the league norm. Weird ... I guess it comes from being ahead big so much. But then many of their runs are when teams know the run is coming, so that DEPRESSES their YPC.

It's all connected.

Well, that part doesn't naturally follow because the Pats have a total of more offensive plays than any other team. So above avg number of total running plays doesn't automatically translate into a higher than league norm of the Pats plays being run vs. pass.

So I did some number crunching, 55% of all plays are passing plays. 18th highest in the league so slightly less than avg. The most was the Lions who throw 64% of the time, the least Steelers 44%.

I would dispute you claim that teams know the run is coming when we are up. See multiple discussions on "running up the score" the Pat continue to throw the ball when they are up by a large lead.