Re: Under Pressure

[xmarkd400x]

The Boston Globe this morning ran an article about how the Patriots passing attack performed, as well as how many blitzed. (http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2007/11/27/responding_to_pressure/)

My additions are in bold.

Three-man rush
3 of 3 for 26 yards 8.6 YPA, 5.2% of passes
Add one dropback for a Tom Brady 12-yard scramble

Four-man rush
13 of 26 for 168 yards 6.5 YPA, 44.8% of passes
Brady sacked once (seemed to be coverage-based more than a result of pressure)
Randy Moss offensive pass interference call came against four-man rush

Five-man rush
11 of 17 for 88 yards 5.2 YPA, 29.3% of passes
Brady sacked once (Nick Kaczur didn't hold block on Juqua Thomas)
16-yard pass to Jabar Gaffney, which sealed game, came against five-man rush

Six-man rush
4 of 7 for 40 yards5.7 YPA, 12.1% of passes
Add one dropback for a Brady 5-yard scramble

Seven-man rush
3 of 5 for 58 yards 11.6 YPA, 8.6% of passes
Gaffney's 19-yard touchdown came against seven-man pressure
Brady sacked once when Eagles overloaded left side

Some notes:

• New England averages 8.73 YPA this year
• New England averaged 6.7 YPA against Philly
• Against a 4 man rush (~45% of the time), the Pats averaged just about their game average.
• The Pats suffered the greatest drop-off in passing production against 5 and 6 man rushes (~41% of the time).
• The Pats passing production increased against 3 and 7 man rushes (~13% of the time).
• Only against a 7 man rush did NE fare better than their YTD YPA.

It seems to me, that against a 3 man rush, Brady will sit back and pick you apart. Against a 7 man rush Brady will throw more incompletions, but the passes he hits will be for longer gains. Against everything in between, it seems that it is possible to disguise who is rushing and who isnt. This may surprise Brady, and lead to more sacks/hurries/knockdowns.

My conclusion is that Philly did a pretty good job with the blitz. Big rushes and little rushes did not generate favorable results (for the Eagles) and heavy, but not all out rushes generated more favorable results (for the Eagles).

 

[patsox23]

It's worth mentioning that, I think anyway, the Patriots did worse against 5- and 6-man rushes v. the Eagles than they normally have this season. No?

 

[Oswlek]

It's worth mentioning that, I think anyway, the Patriots did worse against 5- and 6-man rushes v. the Eagles than they normally have this season. No?

Exactly. There is no way to draw any conclusions from those numbers unless you know how it relates to other games.

 

[xmarkd400x]

I just meant this as notes for this game. I did not mean to imply any overarching season trends.

 

[Oswlek]

I just meant this as notes for this game. I did not mean to imply any overarching season trends.

That's fine, just watch how you word things because season-long is just how your post implied.

 

[Ring 6]

The Boston Globe this morning ran an article about how the Patriots passing attack performed, as well as how many blitzed. (http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2007/11/27/responding_to_pressure/)

My additions are in bold.



Some notes:

• New England averages 8.73 YPA this year
• New England averaged 6.7 YPA against Philly
• Against a 4 man rush (~45% of the time), the Pats averaged just about their game average.
• The Pats suffered the greatest drop-off in passing production against 5 and 6 man rushes (~41% of the time).
• The Pats passing production increased against 3 and 7 man rushes (~13% of the time).
• Only against a 7 man rush did NE fare better than their YTD YPA.

It seems to me, that against a 3 man rush, Brady will sit back and pick you apart. Against a 7 man rush Brady will throw more incompletions, but the passes he hits will be for longer gains. Against everything in between, it seems that it is possible to disguise who is rushing and who isnt. This may surprise Brady, and lead to more sacks/hurries/knockdowns.

My conclusion is that Philly did a pretty good job with the blitz. Big rushes and little rushes did not generate favorable results (for the Eagles) and heavy, but not all out rushes generated more favorable results (for the Eagles).

I dont think there is a large enough sample to be significant. You would need to factor in drops,yards after catch, down and distance. If they are rushing 3 on 1st and 10, and rushing 6 on 3rd and 2, the numbers arent comparable.
Not saying the numbers are worthy of noting, just that I dont think we can draw conclusions.

The fact is more pressure will almost always result in less completions for more yards, and more coverage result in more completions for fewer yards. A couple of plays can change the ypa numbers drastically within one game.

 

[BadMoFo]

Sounds like some people are afraid that this might actually be the blueprint.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Sounds like some people are afraid that this might actually be the blueprint.

Rushing 4 or 5 men every down? That's what I would do to pressure Brady.
The numbers dont lie. The Pats offense has been least efficient vs 5 man rush.
Some people call it Big Nickel Defense.
That's what the Colts employed against the Pats most of the game.
I'm not sure what defense the Eagles ran but they blitzed a lot and it worked for the most part.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Statistics show (all NFL teams over many years) that 6 man blitzes tend to be by far the best number of people to bring. 7 and 8 man blitzes tend to be the worst.

 

[Oswlek]

Rushing 4 or 5 men every down? That's what I would do to pressure Brady.
The numbers dont lie. The Pats offense has been least efficient vs 5 man rush.
Some people call it Big Nickel Defense.
That's what the Colts employed against the Pats most of the game.
I'm not sure what defense the Eagles ran but they blitzed a lot and it worked for the most part.

The "Big Nickle" has nothing to do with how many people rush. It just means that you sub another safety on the field to replace either a DL or a LB, depending on the defense.

Not only that, but the Colts used their extra DB to cover Welker in the slot man-to-man. They almost never - if not completely never - rushed more than their 4 DLs.