How's this for a trade re: Santana

[groundgame]

If the Red Sox were to trade RHPs C. Bucholtz and J. Tavarez, CF Coco Crisp and hitting prospect Chris Carter to Minnesota Twins in exchange for star pitcher Johan Santana?

 

[dalero]

Theo would be arrested for rape.

 

[BradyManny]

Theo would be arrested for rape.

I wouldn't even do that deal. Santana is a year away from the open market. He's going to cost $25 mill a year. To me, that alone is a high enough price to consider passing, then when you're talking about giving up some of your best prospects who are MLB ready (some who are already contributing, Buccholz/Ellsbury), that just makes no sense when you're team is just coming off winning the WS.

I don't understand this mindset that we have to snatch up every great player available at all costs. Let Santana continue being one of the best MLB pitchers on another team and we can continue to win World Series.

 

[Patti37]

I think it would be a great deal. However, I think the Twins will won't more than that...I think you would have to throw in Lester.

The sox won't make this deal unless they sign Santana to a long term deal before making the trade.

Santana is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has won two Cy Youngs. I don't see how you pass on him if you can work out a deal.

 

[BradyManny]

Santana is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has won two Cy Youngs. I don't see how you pass on him if you can work out a deal.

You'd pass if your team is already good enough to win a World Series and you'd be trading at least 3 (cost-controlled) contributors from your team just to get him, not too mention the effect of having a guy earning $25 mill a year on your payroll (if they'd extend him).

Repeat after me: It's OK for other teams to have great players. It's OK.

 

[Real World]

That deal would get laughed at. They have ZERO interest in Tavarez, and Crisp is borderline worthless when talking Santana type talent. The Twins would take him, but not in a deal like that. You'd have to pay a lot more. They'd start with two out of the Buckholz, Ellsbury, Lester trio, and add pieces from there. Miguel Cabrera is allegedly going to fetch Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, & Clayton Kershaw from the Dodgers. That's 10 times better than the Sox deal proposed in here. Santana will cost a pretty penny.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I wouldn't even do that deal. Santana is a year away from the open market. He's going to cost $25 mill a year. To me, that alone is a high enough price to consider passing, then when you're talking about giving up some of your best prospects who are MLB ready (some who are already contributing, Buccholz/Ellsbury), that just makes no sense when you're team is just coming off winning the WS.

I don't understand this mindset that we have to snatch up every great player available at all costs. Let Santana continue being one of the best MLB pitchers on another team and we can continue to win World Series.

I'd be interested in hearing your theory as to why the Twins would choose to let Santana get to free agency and walk away without getting ANYTHING of value in return, as opposed to trading him this season.

It'd be great if #1 pitchers were allowed to go to free agency so teams like the Red Sox wouldn't have to give up any prospects - but I don't think that's happened in recent memory.

How did we get Josh Beckett? Why didn't Tampa Bay just let him run out his contract and let him go to free agency? There's a good reason. I think you're living in the past when it comes to #1 pitchers making it to free agency.

So to say I'd be shocked if Santana doesn't get traded is an understatement. He's either going to re-sign long term with the Twins (which I don't think anyone views as a realistic scenario) or go out to the highest bidder in terms of players, and will negotiate an extension with his new team.

Once again, this is a situation where BOTH the Yankees and the Sox have played their offseason cards to position them to go after a starting pitcher via trade - i.e. they took care of their position needs by paying salary, and did not give up players in trade - so that they had players that they could trade for starting pitching.

That's great strategy on both teams parts... but only one team will be able to get Santana - and I'd much prefer it be the Sox than the Yankees.

I know everyone around here thinks I'm crazy for factoring in the Yankees roster when advocating for Red Sox moves, but I think its pretty clear that the Red Sox front office has been keeping that in mind as well

One reason they went after Dice-K as agressively as they did was because they wanted to prevent the Yankees from bolstering their pitching. It will be the same with Santana.

Who do the Yankees have as an Ace right now? They desparately want and need Santana, and the Sox know this.

Getting Santana will require the sox to give up position players as well as pitchers - but when all is said and done, Ellsbury is the only one who I'd hate to see made part of the deal - but I think that's going to be a demand of the Twins.

And I think I'd still do it... we'd have 2 #1 pitchers, plus a Dice-K who hopefully will have improved given a year to adjust (just like Beckett) and the Yankees will be scrambling to find another trading partner - either that or they'll offer Roger Clemens $30 million to play one more season!

 

[Foley]

So to say I'd be shocked if Santana doesn't get traded is an understatement. He's either going to re-sign long term with the Twins (which I don't think anyone views as a realistic scenario) or go out to the highest bidder in terms of players, and will negotiate an extension with his new team.

Santana re-signing is a very realistic scenario, and most people around baseball expect thats what it going to happen. 15 GMs/assistants were asked about Santana, and 14 expect him to remain a Twin next season.

The Twins are getting a new stadium and should be under a lot of political pressure to re-sign Santana. Trading away their best player would be a slap in the face to everyone who just agreed to fund their new stadium, and would make it a lot more difficult for them to get anything done that involves city approval. The reason they wanted a new stadium is to increase revenue, and the reason they want to increase revenue is to re-sign their marquee players like Santana. And they're also losing their most expensive player to Free Agency: No Hunter + Increase in revenue = More money for Santana.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Santana re-signing is a very realistic scenario, and most people around baseball expect thats what it going to happen. 15 GMs/assistants were asked about Santana, and 14 expect him to remain a Twin next season.

The Twins are getting a new stadium and should be under a lot of political pressure to re-sign Santana. Trading away their best player would be a slap in the face to everyone who just agreed to fund their new stadium, and would make it a lot more difficult for them to get anything done that involves city approval. The reason they wanted a new stadium is to increase revenue, and the reason they want to increase revenue is to re-sign their marquee players like Santana. And they're also losing their most expensive player to Free Agency: No Hunter + Increase in revenue = More money for Santana.

This really comes down to a money issue if Santana is looking for the top payday, that's going to be from Boston or New York, not the Twins.

Whether folks realize it or not Santana IS CURRENTLY A FREE AGENT for all intents and purposes.

For all the reasons you point out, the last thing the Twins are going to do is let him walk for nothing next season. It's re-sign him in the offseason or trade him

And bringin in Ellsbury, Bucholtz, Lester and others in a trade with the Sox isn't exactly chopped liver for the Twins... further more, seeing as the team finished with a losing record WITH Santana on it this year and out of the playoffs often during his tenure might lead some to believe that that's not enough to bring in more fans - and that the best idea is to rebuild with young pitchers and position players.

But letting Santana walk for NOTHING next season? I don't see that happening under any circumstances and would love to know why anyone thinks it would.

 

[patriotspride]

This really comes down to a money issue if Santana is looking for the top payday, that's going to be from Boston or New York, not the Twins.

Whether folks realize it or not Santana IS CURRENTLY A FREE AGENT for all intents and purposes.

For all the reasons you point out, the last thing the Twins are going to do is let him walk for nothing next season. It's re-sign him in the offseason or trade him

And bringin in Ellsbury, Bucholtz, Lester and others in a trade with the Sox isn't exactly chopped liver for the Twins... further more, seeing as the team finished with a losing record WITH Santana on it this year and out of the playoffs often during his tenure might lead some to believe that that's not enough to bring in more fans - and that the best idea is to rebuild with young pitchers and position players.

But letting Santana walk for NOTHING next season? I don't see that happening under any circumstances and would love to know why anyone thinks it would.

they might think they have a chance of getting to the playoffs .and they might want the draft picks that they would get if Santana left after his contract expired .billy bean does that all the time .he just lets his players walk and gets the draft picks instead of trading his soon to be free agents.

 

[Foley]

This really comes down to a money issue if Santana is looking for the top payday, that's going to be from Boston or New York, not the Twins.

Whether folks realize it or not Santana IS CURRENTLY A FREE AGENT for all intents and purposes.

For all the reasons you point out, the last thing the Twins are going to do is let him walk for nothing next season. It's re-sign him in the offseason or trade him

And bringin in Ellsbury, Bucholtz, Lester and others in a trade with the Sox isn't exactly chopped liver for the Twins... further more, seeing as the team finished with a losing record WITH Santana on it this year and out of the playoffs often during his tenure might lead some to believe that that's not enough to bring in more fans - and that the best idea is to rebuild with young pitchers and position players.

But letting Santana walk for NOTHING next season? I don't see that happening under any circumstances and would love to know why anyone thinks it would.

The Twins have won their division in 4 of the last 6 years, so I think 2007 was more likely a bad season than the signs of a team in need to be rebuilt. If the Twins believe that they have a shot at competing next year with Santana than they'll keep him. Oakland thought they could compete in 2006 with Zito so they kept him instead of trading him away for the big package of prospects everyone expected them to get. A team isn't going to trade away their best player if they think that they can compete with them.

The Twins have added about $15M in payroll over the past two seasons, and should add more with the extra revenue from the stadium. They've already offered him $93M, so expecting them to offer however much more it needs to bring him back isn't out of the question.

 

[scout]

How's this one, we don't trade Ellsbury, who is one of the most promising players in baseball. This is a player, who may become bigger then Santana. I'll take that gamble and not trade him. We don't trade the southpaw Lester, who is a warrior and with a great upside. We don't trade Buckholtz who has done nothing, but did throw a no-hitter in his second start of his career. Currently, we have an ace in Becket and possibly one in Dice K. Excluding Schilling, we then have Lester who was the world series game winner and was still working back from his health dilemmas. As great as Santana is, I don't trade these players to keep the Yankees from deleting their farm in acquiring him.

 

[BradyManny]

I'd be interested in hearing your theory as to why the Twins would choose to let Santana get to free agency and walk away without getting ANYTHING of value in return, as opposed to trading him this season.

Oh, don't get me wrong, he won't HIT free agency in a year, I just meant that he will require getting some serious cash from whatever team he lands with via trade, or if he stays with the Twins. But I agree, no way will the Twins let him walk without getting something for him.

And I think I'd still do it... we'd have 2 #1 pitchers, plus a Dice-K who hopefully will have improved given a year to adjust (just like Beckett) and the Yankees will be scrambling to find another trading partner - either that or they'll offer Roger Clemens $30 million to play one more season!

We'd be leaving holes in CF & at least one spot in the rotation to do it though, and both those spots would have been filled cheaply indefinitely, as well as the fact we'd be earmarking roughly $150 million (I've read somewhere in the 7 x 20 mill a year range) for one guy. Theo's track record shows he wouldn't be willing to make that signing even disregarding the trade.

It's just too much for one guy when you're already a WS caliber team. It'd make sense if their franchise was in a different place right now. They already made a somewhat similar deal in getting Beckett. At this point, doing a 3+ good, cheap players for 1 great, expensive player deal will just weaken them.

 

[Real World]

they might think they have a chance of getting to the playoffs .and they might want the draft picks that they would get if Santana left after his contract expired .billy bean does that all the time .he just lets his players walk and gets the draft picks instead of trading his soon to be free agents.

Beane traded Mulder & Hudson, while he let Zito go. He let Giambi go, but they were a contender and lacked a replacement for Giambi's production. A guy like Santana isn't getting to free agency via the Twins. Maybe, and I stress maybe, he could get there after a team aquires him, and he doesn't extend. I doubt that happens though. The Twins have offered Santana a 5 year $94 million extension. My guess is he wants much more. If Zito got 7 years and $126, I think Santana will get more. The Twins aren't paying that, and Santana wants to win, which he knows the Twins might never do if they are paying him that much.

 

[groundgame]

That deal would get laughed at. They have ZERO interest in Tavarez, and Crisp is borderline worthless when talking Santana type talent. The Twins would take him, but not in a deal like that. You'd have to pay a lot more. They'd start with two out of the Buckholz, Ellsbury, Lester trio, and add pieces from there. Miguel Cabrera is allegedly going to fetch Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, & Clayton Kershaw from the Dodgers. That's 10 times better than the Sox deal proposed in here. Santana will cost a pretty penny.

The Golden Glove Crisp is very highly valued by the Twins. Tavarez, a dependable 4-5th starter at a very manageable $4M salary, can be flipped to another team to fill a need position. Bucholtz, the stud in the Sox part of the equation, could be an 18 game winner by 2009. Carter, the throw-in, could groove his power hitting skills in AAA prior to hitting the bigs in '09. This proposed trade of 4 salary-light players for one $25M player is not laughable.

 

[BradyManny]

The Twins have offered Santana a 5 year $94 million extension. My guess is he wants much more. If Zito got 7 years and $126, I think Santana will get more. The Twins aren't paying that, and Santana wants to win, which he knows the Twins might never do if they are paying him that much.

Unless Santana is infatuated with Minnesota, that's just not going to get it done. Considering the ridiculous contract Zito got last season, if I were Santana, I would start the bidding at 8 x $25 for $200 million. Ultimately, I think he signs for something in the 7 for 150 range, I've read that in a few places, seems reasonable. Still too much and too long for the Sox to pay, IMO.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Santana re-signing is a very realistic scenario, and most people around baseball expect thats what it going to happen.

they might think they have a chance of getting to the playoffs .and they might want the draft picks that they would get if Santana left after his contract expired .billy bean does that all the time .he just lets his players walk and gets the draft picks instead of trading his soon to be free agents.

I think you're working on old information... they've been talking all year with Santana and made an offer and Santana wasn't interested - it seems pretty much accepted in the baseball world that the Twins are actively shopping Santana with an interest in proven players and proven prospects rather than draft picks that will need 3-5 years to develop.

They have a need at center and could be sold on Crisp rather than Ellsbury. If there's not a deal to their liking they can hold him and not trade him til they see how the season shapes up - but the fact that the Twins are shopping him is very real.

 

[maverick4]

The Twins just lost their center fielder, it looks like they may be interested in a guy like Crisp plus a stud prospect (either Bucholtz or Lester, and keep Ellsbury off the table). The Twins are definitely unloading Santana this offseason, it's stupid to let him walk and not get value back.

I have no problem giving 19M/yr to Santana, he's the best pitcher in the game, he won't flop like Zito. You have to pay up for the best talent. If Torii Hunter just signed for 16M/yr, it's not crazy to give Santana around 19M/yr. [edit] on ESPN right now Buster Olney just said Santana wants what Zito got, 7 years for 126M, I would trade Crisp+Lester/Bucholz and give Santana that in a heartbeat.

As I said in the other thread, it's a slightly different situation but remember when we traded 'aces' Pavano and Armas for Pedro? Young guys are always unknowns, look at how great Kerry Wood and Mark Prior looked early in their careers, you just never know what will happen.

Plus... wouldn't it just be HILARIOUS to steal another Minnesota gem away? Garnett, Ortiz, Moss, etc etc...

 

[Real World]

The Golden Glove Crisp is very highly valued by the Twins. Tavarez, a dependable 4-5th starter at a very manageable $4M salary, can be flipped to another team to fill a need position. Bucholtz, the stud in the Sox part of the equation, could be an 18 game winner by 2009. Carter, the throw-in, could groove his power hitting skills in AAA prior to hitting the bigs in '09. This proposed trade of 4 salary-light players for one $25M player is not laughable.

It's beyond laughablemy friend. There isn't a chance in hell that the twins answer the phone if they know that's the Sox offer. Again, Tavarez is worthless, Crisp is a throw in at best, and Carter isn't a high level prospect. When teams likethe Dodgers are going to offer payers like Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw, or the Yankees are going to offer some part of a Cano/Melky/Kennedy/Tabata/Hughes combo, Buckholz and some diarea aren't going to be considered. The twins want 3-4 young, high end, mlb ready players. They won't waste their time with a 30+ year old mop up guy, a 4A 1B, and a center fielder who can't hit.

 

[Real World]

Unless Santana is infatuated with Minnesota, that's just not going to get it done. Considering the ridiculous contract Zito got last season, if I were Santana, I would start the bidding at 8 x $25 for $200 million. Ultimately, I think he signs for something in the 7 for 150 range, I've read that in a few places, seems reasonable. Still too much and too long for the Sox to pay, IMO.

I agree. He's not signing for what Zito got. This is his big payday, and I think he's going to cash in. It'll take $20-$25 per for 5-8 years. That's going to restrict the interested teams to 4-5 serious contenders.