Chris Long (merged x2)

[mcbee]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

That's not true. The odds may not be worth the risk but don't overstate it; while the big money busts are mentioned a lot, there's a lot of big money high picks who are studs. Very slim is way overstating it.

Personally I like Long, I'm just not sure how we would get him the playing time a pick that high would need.

I saw a list of past #2 picks for the past 10 years. About 2 were studs, most mediocre and a couple outright busts.

All that for 8M per year? No thanks, I don't like those odds.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

I saw a list of past #2 picks for the past 10 years. About 2 were studs, most mediocre and a couple outright busts.

Looking at #2 picks is silly. There's no inherent difference between them and #3. I just happened to look at two years and saw Robert Gallery and Charles Rogers as #2 picks. But the #3 picks were Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. The #2 picks were busts, the #3 picks weren't. You're severely limiting your sample size by looking just at #2.

Additionally, most high picks go to crappy teams which undoubtedly increases the bust rate.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

Here's a list of #2 picks.
81 Lawrence Taylor
82 Johnnie Cooks lb Chip Banks went 3 another lb and good one...
83 Eric ****erson
84 Dean Steinkuhler Carl Banks lb went 3
85 Bill Fralic
86 Tony Casillas
87 Cornelius Bennett
88 Neil Smith
89 Tony Mandarich...oops...Could have been B.Sanders or D.Sanders
90 Blair Thomas...Cortez Kennedy went 3
91 Eric Turner - s - Pro Bowler...died tragically..
92 Quentin Coryatt - lb ...God what an awful draft..Top 10 was Emtman,Coryatt, Gilbert, D. Howard,T.Buckley,D.Klingler,T.Vincent,B.Whitfield,T.Vardell,R.Robers...Pats drafted immortal E.Chung at 13..maybe our worse pick ever
93 Rick Mirer ...G.Hearst went 3rd...I'm sure he was 2 on most boards behind Bledsoe
94 Marshall Faulk
95 Tony Boselli
96 Kevin Hardy
97 Darrell Russell
98 Ryan Leaf
00 Donovan McNabb
01 Lavar Arrington
02 Leonard Davis
03 Charles Rogers
04 Robert Gallery
05 Ronnie Brown
06 Reggie Bush
07 Calvin Johnson

Seems OL is the biggest position for mistakes. Scratch J.Long from my list. Def. players seem like safer bets.

 

[mcbee]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

Here's a list of #2 picks.
81 Lawrence Taylor
82 Johnnie Cooks lb Chip Banks went 3 another lb and good one...
83 Eric ****erson
84 Dean Steinkuhler Carl Banks lb went 3
85 Bill Fralic
86 Tony Casillas
87 Cornelius Bennett
88 Neil Smith
89 Tony Mandarich...oops...Could have been B.Sanders or D.Sanders
90 Blair Thomas...Cortez Kennedy went 3
91 Eric Turner - s - Pro Bowler...died tragically..
92 Quentin Coryatt - lb ...God what an awful draft..Top 10 was Emtman,Coryatt, Gilbert, D. Howard,T.Buckley,D.Klingler,T.Vincent,B.Whitfield,T.Vardell,R.Robers...Pats drafted immortal E.Chung at 13..maybe our worse pick ever
93 Rick Mirer ...G.Hearst went 3rd...I'm sure he was 2 on most boards behind Bledsoe
94 Marshall Faulk
95 Tony Boselli
96 Kevin Hardy
97 Darrell Russell
98 Ryan Leaf
00 Donovan McNabb
01 Lavar Arrington
02 Leonard Davis
03 Charles Rogers
04 Robert Gallery
05 Ronnie Brown
06 Reggie Bush
07 Calvin Johnson

Seems OL is the biggest position for mistakes. Scratch J.Long from my list. Def. players seem like safer bets.

Thanks for your very good post. I think they have to play more 4-3 if they take Long...he seems kind of like Jarvis Green. So Jarvis Green at twice the money basically.

The 'value' of a draft, defined by what you get minus what you pay is highest late 1st to 3rd, I've heard the Pats FO say.

I think I'd trade the #2 pick this year straight up for the #18 pick. 6M per year cap savings. Less risk. I know, I know, it's crazy.

 

[Ishdul]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

I think the thing is that you have to trust your scouting staff. With the Patriots, no problem, why wouldn't we? Meanwhile, a lot of the league's bottom feeders basically make their draft based on Mel Kiper's board, so yeah, teams like that are going to make bad picks.

A team like the Browns is going to suck when they pick Tim Couch, Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren with top 3 picks back-to-back-to-back. Coincidentally, they're now looking like a playoff team because of the exploits of Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr. and Joe Thomas.

The top of the draft is still something of a crapshoot, but we've shown superior scouting and that should only be amplified in the top 5, and the fact is that you can win big with such a pick.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

I think crappy teams reach too much in the first round. Drafting a QB because you need one or whatever position. We have a luxury here where most teams do not. The absolute safest pick is Dorsey. I'm not saying we should take him. He is the least likely to bust IMO.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

As others have said, it's silly to look at picks of perennial losers like the Cardinals or Lions and expect the same results from the Patriots. We have a better organization, structure, veteran leadership, coaching. The exact same player who was a bust for Detroit might have been an allstar for us. Additionally, as I said, you need to look at top five picks, not just #2.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

Good Player, but I don't see him as a top five selection. Can't wait for the combine.

Can you elaborate on this because everything I've seen tells me he's a top 5 guy.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

I think crappy teams reach too much in the first round. Drafting a QB because you need one or whatever position. We have a luxury here where most teams do not. The absolute safest pick is Dorsey. I'm not saying we should take him. He is the least likely to bust IMO.

He's already got a contract waiting for him in Miami which could be voided by a trade which in all likelihood would cost a team their entire draft to acquire Miami's #1.

Sorry, he's ours.

 

[mcbee]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

As others have said, it's silly to look at picks of perennial losers like the Cardinals or Lions and expect the same results from the Patriots. We have a better organization, structure, veteran leadership, coaching. The exact same player who was a bust for Detroit might have been an allstar for us. Additionally, as I said, you need to look at top five picks, not just #2.

Some truth to that, but some guys are head cases. Bethel Johnson? Not a head case but they couldn't make it work here. Dexter Reid, Guss Scott. I mean this organization may have good coaching but you can't turn dross into gold...and some of those guys were seen as "can't miss".

#2 pick is very risky. He's coming in and getting more than any veteran except Brady and Moss (assuming they sign him for next year). That's a little crazy.

It's easy to get excited about guys watching their college films, but the pro game is so different sometimes it just doesn't translate.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Howie Long's son DE Chris Long - Top 5 Pick

Some truth to that, but some guys are head cases. Bethel Johnson? Not a head case but they couldn't make it work here. Dexter Reid, Guss Scott. I mean this organization may have good coaching but you can't turn dross into gold...and some of those guys were seen as "can't miss".

#2 pick is very risky. He's coming in and getting more than any veteran except Brady and Moss (assuming they sign him for next year). That's a little crazy.

It's easy to get excited about guys watching their college films, but the pro game is so different sometimes it just doesn't translate.

I don't disagree that the size of the contract may not be worth the risk of the player being a bust. I just didn't like your wording of a "slim" chance of hitting on a Seymour. I think if you look at top five picks historically, then factor in the somewhat increased chance of the player doing well by going to an established, good team, I think there's at least a 50-50 chance of him being a close to pro bowl caliber player. 50-50 chance and 100% chance at the big contract may not be worth it but I don't think it's a "slim" chance either.

 

[marty]

OT - Please BB can you draft Cris Long????

Great little mention in the Herald this am on Howie Long's son Cris. Sounds like he'd be a great fit for the Pats. A DL, with a huge motor, smarts, great character, and possible good conversion to LB. As admittedly Howie is one of my favorite NFL alumni from the NE area, and since we already missed on Tatupu, can we please, please draft Cris????? If he's anything like his dad, I'm sold!!!

 

[RussFrancis]

Re: OT - Please BB can you draft Cris Long????

I really like Long alot, but DLine is a strength of the team. And Im not sure he's gonna have the NFL quickness to make the conversion to 3-4 OLB. I dont see him covering TEs and backs. He's in the 280ish range now already. And he's growing. He's more of a 4-3 Dend. He'll make a great pro somewhere. I doubt it will be in New England.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

Re: OT - Please BB can you draft Cris Long????

I really like Long alot, but DLine is a strength of the team. And Im not sure he's gonna have the NFL quickness to make the conversion to 3-4 OLB. I dont see him covering TEs and backs. He's in the 280ish range now already. And he's growing. He's more of a 4-3 Dend. He'll make a great pro somewhere. I doubt it will be in New England.

Seymour may be gone in a few years. Especially if we win another SB. Never too late to start looking @ a replacement. (In no way am I saying Long is a Seymour, but you gotta plan ahead).

 

[RussFrancis]

Re: OT - Please BB can you draft Cris Long????

Seymour may be gone in a few years. Especially if we win another SB. Never too late to start looking @ a replacement. (In no way am I saying Long is a Seymour, but you gotta plan ahead).

I just dont know if he has the dominant size that Seymour has to play the Dend position in the 3-4. Seymour's position is basically Tackle in a 4-3. And he came into the league that size. 6'6, 310. I think he was 5 lbs lighter. But Long will never be big enough to play tackle. He's imo the perfect 4-3 Dend. Seymour is imo, the perfect 3-4 Dend. Those couple of inches and about 30lbs of natural size make a big difference.

 

[PantsB]

Re: OT - Please BB can you draft Cris Long????

I'd like Chris Long on this team to work behind our current DL. I would not want to make him either the highest or second highest paid player on the team to get him.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Re: OT - Please BB can you draft Cris Long????

Article made it seem that he can play ROLB in our scheme. Opposite Vrabel. Not as a dl in a 3-4. If you project that, then I think we will consider him. If he doesn't appear to have the quickness necessary. Maybe someone else.

On a side note. The Fox guys will love us. Unlike the ball washing Costas gives Dungy every week and open dislike for us. I gave up on ESPN pre-game show a long time ago. CBS show is really a clown act. They're like recess at the middle school. Jimmy Johnson and Howie already give us props. Would be even better having Howie's kid.