As The Ball Bounces: Week 11

[PatsFans.com Article]

Pittsburgh is so not an elite team.

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[PatsFan#37]

I don't agree with your take on Denver. Are we to avoid those who may be a challenge only to fight those who we dominate? I think not. Bring them on so there is no doubt about wether we are worthy or not.

 

[bobgeorge]

I don't agree with your take on Denver. Are we to avoid those who may be a challenge only to fight those who we dominate? I think not. Bring them on so there is no doubt about wether we are worthy or not.

This subject was raised on the Cold Hard Football Facts.com website, I saw it just after I posted this article. A writer there suggested the same thing, that perhaps Denver is the one team that could derail a possible 19-0 season because of all the success they have had against the Patriots over the years.

You know, if you asked everyone on this board if they would 1) love to play Denver and run up 50 points on them to get back at them for all the losses they have inflicted on us or 2) avoid Denver because of their tendencies to match up well and outplay/outcoach us over the years, I wonder which would prevail. In 2003 it took Denver having to play a 3rd string QB and a freak intentional safety to beat them. Other than that, a NE-Denver playoff matchup would be the last thing most of us would want to see. I like us beating Indy better than I like us beating Denver, even in this great year.

Of course, with the incredible team we have, we could clobber them just like we have everywhere else except Indy. I'd just rather not put us in a position to see if we could do it.

Bob G

 

[TruthSeeker]

Thanks for the article; much appreciated.

I see the Colts very differently than you do. It took a record setting number of penalties on the Patriots (many bad calls) along with many missed calls on the Colts for the Patriot/Colts game to be close in Indy. With the Colts hurting more than ever and the Patriots appearing to get even stronger, I would envision a standard blowout against the Colts in Foxboro should they meet in the playoffs.

Likewise, I have no fear of Denver. As was discussed in earlier threads, the Redskins and the Dolphins in Miami also seemed to have the Patriots number over the years. Not this year.

Finally, Vince Young looks to me like a poor man's Michael Vick. Will he grow into a good passing NFL QB or stay mired near the bottom in completion percentage? I don't know, but I don't ever see him as a top 5 QB - or even a top 10 QB for more than a season or two.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Nice article Bob, as usual!

But I have to say "Not This Year" against any fears/apprehensions against teams that beat us solidly in the past. In addition to an amazing offense, our ST has been doing exceedingly well, the defense continues perform well - though a bit shaky in the beginning - and best, the coaches have the spygate charges act as a incredible motivation tool. All four put together makes a splendid formula to attempt blowing away any team this year.

Hope it does result in a 19-0 season this year whether or not we play Denver or Colts or both of them combined...

Go PATS!!

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

It would also bother me that the Patriots didn't have an answer for Addai.

Try looking up Addai's numbers in the SECOND half. You know the half during which the Colts offense was stymied and the Patriots scored twice to come from behind an actually, you know, WIN the game.

Post his 2nd half numbers here. I'm waiting.

 

[Oswlek]

Because even without Dwight Freeney, they are the one team that not only could ruin the Patriots' quest for a perfect season, but even worse, keep them out of the Super Bowl.

I beg to differ. The defense that Indy used to slow NE down the last time was predicated on Brady never having more than 3 seconds to scan the field. Once Indy's DL tired out, NE had guys open just as much as against any other team.

Without Freeney, the key to this goes away. Did you see just how little pressure Indy got on KC? And KC's OL was overwhelmed by Denver just the week before that.

Without Freeney, NE can feel free to leave Light 1:1 with whoever Indy puts out there a RDE and can use a RB or TE to either double or chip Mathis. The reason Mathis had such a big game last time is that NE directed most of this extra help Light's way and Mathis was able to face Kaczur by himself all night.

If Indy plays the same defense as they did a few weeks ago, NE would put up 40, weather permitting. NE has never had trouble with Indy's traditional cover two either.

For Indy to win, they would need their offense to be completely lights out. Freeney is a huge loss.

 

[Oswlek]

Try looking up Addai's numbers in the SECOND half. You know the half during which the Colts offense was stymied and the Patriots scored twice to come from behind an actually, you know, WIN the game.

Post his 2nd half numbers here. I'm waiting.

Addai had a very nice game. but NE aided him tremendously by being too excited and not staying disciplined in their gaps.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Addai had a very nice game. but NE aided him tremendously by being too excited and not staying disciplined in their gaps.

In the FIRST half

 

[FrontSeven]

Finally, Vince Young looks to me like a poor man's Michael Vick.

And Vick is a poor man's Randall Cunningham.

 

[TruthSeeker]

You're looking at the game one sided. Does Harrison drop any of those passes that Gonzalez(TD) or Moorehead drop? Will the Colts go 1-4 in the red zone again? Don't think so. Would the Patriots rotated coverage to Wayne and Clark leaving Harrison singled up? Don't think so. Alos, it's not the number of penalties. It's when they are called. If I remember correctly, the Colts had a huge 1st Down taken away with 5 minutes left before they had to punt on a questionable holding. It would also bother me that the Patriots didn't have an answer for Addai.

I agree with you, my view was one-sided.

However, the arguments I advanced were all about changes in the independent referees. I made no assumptions about Patriots making better plays or Colts making worse plays. I made no assumptions about someone playing that was actually injured or vice versa. In that sense, I believe the argument had some balance.

The what-if game you are playing assumes that an injured Marvin Harrison is able to go 100% or nearly so. (If he had played, it is not unlikely that he would not have been much of a factor due to his injury.) You can always cherry pick certain statistics that were below average (in this case, 1 out of 4 in the red zone) and argue that they will likely resort to the norm. I could do that for the Patriots statistics as well very easily (e.g. how improbable was the Addai TD at the end of the half for multiple reasons that I could talk about for 3 paragraphs) - especially since this was their only game scoring under 30 points this year. But I don't think that's a fair argument either.

The basic point I was making stands. The Patriots were in a hostile environment, got absolutely no breaks on the field and yet still won the game playing convincingly well on both offense and defense in crunch time. Since that time, the Colts have had a very significant injury and have looked very beatable whereas the Patriots came back with a totally dominating performance. If they were to meet again, it would surely be in Foxboro in less than ideal weather conditions (certainly rather cold) which are conditions that have historically favored the Patriots and the Colts have historically performed poorly in.

That is why I feel confident about the Patriots beating the Colts; I just don't feel worried about them should we meet up in the playoffs.