I am pretty sure won't have the cap room to:
Sign Moss - $4 years, $30M, could be much higher
Sign Samuel - 5 years , $55M, could be higher
Sign Dansby - $5 years, $30M
Take on a veteran salary (Suggs will get way over $50 on the market and why would Dallas trade Ware? he is a very good player signed for cheap money)
Draft a top 5 pick - $6 years, $45- $60M
It is a cruse of being a good team, very hard for rookies to come in and take a veterans job. Ideally young guys can come in and fil the 48-53 spots on the roster and eventually work their way from special teams into a backup role, if you get lucky some will become starters.
Next year 2 of the top3 CBs are FAs and 2 of the top 5 LBs are free agents. In both cases there is really no one on the current roster who could fill these roles and have anywhere near the production of the players who may leave.
All the talk of the Colts being in cap hell, but they generally do a good job of preparing for losess (Addai for James, Jackson as a CB, Ugoh for Glenn). They generally run lower on depth than the Patriots but the front level positions are usually covered.
In 2008 there will be a lot of turnover on the Patriots roster, maybe the most since 2001 and it looks like a lot of young players or scrap heap veterans will be in key positions on the defense. Maybe I talked myself into it, if we have to (gun to head) draft a player in the top five and McFadden is available it could make sense, having an offense the consistently scores over 35 PPG covers up a lot of issues on defense.
Exactly, if NE has to worry about resigning Moss, keeping Stallworth, and others than what the heck makes people think they'd use that money on McFadden?
Here's something I recently posted on the subject of NE's first round pick:
The Patriots won't worry about getting full market value, as they'll consider the drop in contract prices part of the value. I think they would easily get a 2nd rounder in return for a trade down from 2-3 to 6-8, and if they wanted another 2nd for trading down to the 12-16 range. That's why I say if the Cowboys came calling with those two likely late first rounders, the Patriots would ask for an additional 2nd, but they wouldn't let fair market value get in their way. Again, the Patriots consider those type of picks and contracts to be gold. This is a lot different than some other teams, which is why NE can still keep making trades every year.
Some of us worry "Well, the Patriots are a potential championship team, and they've done very well with past trades, so teams aren't going to want to trade with them". Sorry, but that isn't the correct mindset. Think about it, if I thought someone like Glen Dorsey or McFadden were among the best college players to come out for a long time at their position and I had a need at that position, do you think I'd let NE's previous track record get in my way? All most teams are worried about is getting better, and selling tickets. If it takes giving up a top 10 pick plus their 2nd to move up for someone they really want they'll do it. If I thought that player was special, and I had a need for him I'd also see keeping him away from the Patriots as an added plus.
Remember, these guys have jobs on the line, and drafting one of the more well known players in the draft can provide you with a little job security, even if your team doesn't improve right away. Why? Because that well known player can pull in more ticket sales, and help revive the popularity (at least short term) of a losing team.
Getting back to the top 2-4 contracts. They will be substantially more than what NE has given players like Adalius Thomas, Rosevelt Colvin, Ty Warren, and others. A.D. Thomas received a $12M signing bonus, and his total take over five years will be $35.04M (including that signing bonus). Rosevelt Colvin signed a 6 year $25.85M contract which wasn't high at all when you realize he was among the top free agents that year. NE has since restructured that contract, which has increased his current and 2008 cap hit, but the overall deal when signed wasn't high. Ty Warren signed a 5 year $36M contract extension with $18M guaranteed.
Someone in the top 2-4 (especially McFadden) IS NOT going to get a contract simular in figures to those. Top 2-4 contracts are bringing in $50-59M+ with guaranteed money anywhere from $24-30M. For example, RB Reggie Bush received $24M guaranteed as part of his six year $54M contract. People who know contracts will tell you guaranteed money is the key, and these top picks are getting a ton of guaranteed money. This is why as Patriots fans we should realize Pioli and BB aren't likely to draft someone for that money.