50% of the top ten

[Pedrorocks458]

I dont get what your saying

It's skewing the numbers. Playing us is practically a guarantee that a schedule ranks in the top 10 DVOA of difficulty. In this case, the stat isn't doing its job. Its being skewed by an outlier.

 

[makewayhomer]

It's skewing the numbers. Playing us is practically a guarantee that a schedule ranks in the top 10 DVOA of difficulty. In this case, the stat isn't doing its job. Its being skewed by an outlier.

ok, but I'm saying the Patriots have a similar affect b/c we had to play 2 teams with incredibly high DVOA's

I'll buy that some opponents schedules may look harder b/c of the 1 game vs us, but our schedule also is "inflated" b/c of 2 games we had to play

 

[Deus Irae]

ok, but I'm saying the Patriots have a similar affect b/c we had to play 2 teams with incredibly high DVOA's

I'll buy that some opponents schedules may look harder b/c of the 1 game vs us, but our schedule also is "inflated" b/c of 2 games we had to play

So, in other words, the vaunted DVOA is not the right way to go, and the right way to go is actually strength of schedule, as others have pointed out.

 

[makewayhomer]

So, in other words, the vaunted DVOA is not the right way to go, and the right way to go is actually strength of schedule, as others have pointed out.

no, DVOA is still superior, b/c SOS ironically doesn't take into account the SOS of the teams you have played

so by SOS if you played Detroit you get credit for playing a good team; but by DVOA you correctly are credited for playing a below average team

 

[FrontSeven]

Is this really an important issue? .

No, it's not. It's an observation that has no meaning or importance.

 

[BTTA]

The 2007 Pats would bury that Phins team by 40 points. The Steelers made that happen during their run, when they jumped ahead of the rest of the league with "strength enhancing technologies." From that point, no team from the past would have had a chance; the size, strength, speed, and healing capabilities of the modern teams made the comparison into Apples and Oranges.

 

[Pedrorocks458]

ok, but I'm saying the Patriots have a similar affect b/c we had to play 2 teams with incredibly high DVOA's

I'll buy that some opponents schedules may look harder b/c of the 1 game vs us, but our schedule also is "inflated" b/c of 2 games we had to play

No, not incredibly high. Those are only good. Our DVOA is incredibly high. Nobody else's is. Others don't skew it like we do.

 

[Deus Irae]

no, DVOA is still superior, b/c SOS ironically doesn't take into account the SOS of the teams you have played

so by SOS if you played Detroit you get credit for playing a good team; but by DVOA you correctly are credited for playing a below average team

This is what's known as complete nonsense.

 

[reflexblue]

Steelers yes, Colts no. Colts have played the hardest schedule in the league

They should they'er the champs.

 

[makewayhomer]

No, not incredibly high. Those are only good. Our DVOA is incredibly high. Nobody else's is. Others don't skew it like we do.

both Dallas and Indy have sky high DVOA's, higher than any recent SB winner or any team since the 1999 Rams

 

[makewayhomer]

This is what's known as complete nonsense.

lol, next time just say "I don't understand what metrics you're using saying so I'm going to mock it"

 

[Deus Irae]

lol, next time just say "I don't understand what metrics you're using saying so I'm going to mock it"

Why would I do that when I understand completely? Don't get all silly just because I realize that you have chosen to cherry pick a statistical formula to suit your needs. I understand the formula, I simply realize its limitations.

 

[Pedrorocks458]

both Dallas and Indy have sky high DVOA's, higher than any recent SB winner or any team since the 1999 Rams

Ours is 30% higher than theirs. It's the difference between them and a team like Seattle. They're not in the stratosphere with us.

 

[makewayhomer]

Why would I do that when I understand completely? Don't get all silly just because I realize that you have chosen to cherry pick a statistical formula to suit your needs. I understand the formula, I simply realize its limitations.

which are?

 

[makewayhomer]

Ours is 30% higher than theirs. It's the difference between them and a team like Seattle. They're not in the stratosphere with us.

throw out each teams 2 hardest games (INDY,DALLAS for us, PATS, TB) for them and Indy's schedule is still a bit harder

even so, I don't know why you would want to do this. Indy had to play what may be the best team of all time, their schedule should reflect this

 

[godef]

Well, given that there are 16 games a year, and 31 other teams to play against, 50% is not off the mark.

 

[Nordy]

throw out each teams 2 hardest games (INDY,DALLAS for us, PATS, TB) for them and Indy's schedule is still a bit harder

even so, I don't know why you would want to do this. Indy had to play what may be the best team of all time, their schedule should reflect this

LOL yeah and Tampa Bay is almost as good as Dallas. Let's not act like Tampa Bay is a hard game. The Patriots have played the harder schedule. Let's also not forget that in the Jags game Garrard left early and they got to beat up on Quinn Gray.

 

[makewayhomer]

LOL yeah and Tampa Bay is almost as good as Dallas. Let's not act like Tampa Bay is a hard game. The Patriots have played the harder schedule. Let's also not forget that in the Jags game Garrard left early and they got to beat up on Quinn Gray.

huh? I didn't say TB was as good as Dallas, I said it was their 2nd hardest game.

both teams have played plenty of games against hurt teams as well. JP Losman got injured in the very first series of the Buffalo game

 

[spacecrime]

DVOA is a better predictor of team strength than W/L

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff.php

scroll down for the "Past Sched" ranks

Bull.

Like any algorythm, the DVOA will compute based on the assumptions made in preparing the formula. Had different assumptions been made, you would get different results.

Using an artibrary calculation yields arbitrary results.

OTOH, there is nothing assumed, pre-judged, arbitrary or controversial about W's and L's.

Or Win-Loss record vs. common opponents.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Lets just face it, the Pats have the tougher schedule than Indy. The Pats played the Browns, WAS, and Indy and Dallas on the road. We have to face the Steelers, PHI, and the Giants.

The Colts have really only played one tough game, the Pats at home.
They first faced a NO team that couldn't score any points and had a terrible defense. NEXT
They then faced TEN, a team that has Vince Young at QB... NEXT
They then faced HOU, um, what has HOU ever done? NEXT
They then faced TB, ok, Jeff Garcia, but a very average FB team. NEXT
They then faced JAX. JAX, without Garrard. So JAX didn't a defense or QB, and for some strange reason decided to stop running the ball... NEXT
Indy at CAR. Vinny T was starting that game. 'Nough said. NEXT
Indy vs PATS. The game of the century, they FINAL faced a great team (actually, unbeatable team).
Indy at SD. SD is a terrible team. We beat the **** out of them, and then nobody gave us credit for beating a good team. Coming into the game at 4-4, there is no reason Indy should get the credit for LOSING to a good team... NEXT

Now they have to play KC, ATL, JAX, BAL, HOU, OAK, and TEN. So the only good team in that bunch is... I don't even know. BAL has an old defense and no offense, JAX still doesn't have a QB, and TEN still have Vince Young. So three average teams and 4 ****ty teams.

The Pats have BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, and NYG left. PHI is an average team right now, PIT is a top 3 team, and the NYG are a good team. So that leaves us with an 4 Average Teams (I gave INDY credit for BAL as an average team) 1 great team, and 2 ****ty teams. One seems harder than the other.