For Those Advocating The Selection of Darren McFadden

[dryheat44]

One thing is imagine a backfield of Mcfadden and MAroney at the same time on the field defenses won't know will get the ball and who to respect.

Are you advocating the Pats changing their whole offensive system when they look to have the greatest offense in history right now? Who are you going to sit in order to put another back in the backfield? Welker? Watson? Moss? Are you going to bring in one to use as a fullback in goalline situations? I can see the dual RB set used for gimmicky stuff a few times a year, but that's about it.

 

[Crazyeechrispats1]

Well there is no promise that Stallworth's option get's picked up, I hope to god Randy Moss stays.
I'm just saying if BB decides Maroney hasn't been that guy, and i'm not saying he's not.
If BB and SP say were gonna take the best player available and hurt the jet's in the process.
Then can it really be a bad thing?
I know the cap hit would be incredibly high especially with all the hype this guy is getting, but if he is head and shoulders in the eyes of the front office that much better than every rb in the draft or they decide he's better than alot or any rb in the league.
I think they could make that move.
I guess I just don't wanna see Seau Bru and Vrabs chasing this guy wearing gang green, Like BB did with Wes Welker instead of defending the guy bring him in.
If they think he can be that special I can see the Patriots either trading with a team what wants him just to get him out of the division or choose him themselves.
Now assuming we lock up Samuel and Moss then really we can afford to add best player available or trade the pick for a known stud like a Suggs or Ware.
Or maybe we could get Dansby who really wants to resign i the desert?
Having 2 explosive backs i'm sure we could add a few wrinkles on the offense to scare the heck out of teams and just something extra to prepare for.
Although I think the RB on Illinois looks impressive as well and maybe he's there in the second or third round.
I'm not giving up on Maroney at all matter of fact I expect him to be a big part of what we do this sunday night in Buffallo.
I guess I just want to get the most game changing player available in the spot we take.
It's not every year in the BB dynasty that we have the change of a top 5 or 10 draft pick.

 

[cstjohn17]

Now assuming we lock up Samuel and Moss then really we can afford to add best player available or trade the pick for a known stud like a Suggs or Ware.
Or maybe we could get Dansby who really wants to resign i the desert?
Having 2 explosive backs i'm sure we could add a few wrinkles on the offense to scare the heck out of teams and just something extra to prepare for.

I am pretty sure won't have the cap room to:
Sign Moss - $4 years, $30M, could be much higher
Sign Samuel - 5 years , $55M, could be higher
Sign Dansby - $5 years, $30M
Take on a veteran salary (Suggs will get way over $50 on the market and why would Dallas trade Ware? he is a very good player signed for cheap money)
Draft a top 5 pick - $6 years, $45- $60M

It is a cruse of being a good team, very hard for rookies to come in and take a veterans job. Ideally young guys can come in and fil the 48-53 spots on the roster and eventually work their way from special teams into a backup role, if you get lucky some will become starters.

Next year 2 of the top3 CBs are FAs and 2 of the top 5 LBs are free agents. In both cases there is really no one on the current roster who could fill these roles and have anywhere near the production of the players who may leave.

All the talk of the Colts being in cap hell, but they generally do a good job of preparing for losess (Addai for James, Jackson as a CB, Ugoh for Glenn). They generally run lower on depth than the Patriots but the front level positions are usually covered.

In 2008 there will be a lot of turnover on the Patriots roster, maybe the most since 2001 and it looks like a lot of young players or scrap heap veterans will be in key positions on the defense. Maybe I talked myself into it, if we have to (gun to head) draft a player in the top five and McFadden is available it could make sense, having an offense the consistently scores over 35 PPG covers up a lot of issues on defense.

 

[sebman2112]

I am pretty sure won't have the cap room to:
Sign Moss - $4 years, $30M, could be much higher
Sign Samuel - 5 years , $55M, could be higher
Sign Dansby - $5 years, $30M
Take on a veteran salary (Suggs will get way over $50 on the market and why would Dallas trade Ware? he is a very good player signed for cheap money)
Draft a top 5 pick - $6 years, $45- $60M

It is a cruse of being a good team, very hard for rookies to come in and take a veterans job. Ideally young guys can come in and fil the 48-53 spots on the roster and eventually work their way from special teams into a backup role, if you get lucky some will become starters.

Next year 2 of the top3 CBs are FAs and 2 of the top 5 LBs are free agents. In both cases there is really no one on the current roster who could fill these roles and have anywhere near the production of the players who may leave.

All the talk of the Colts being in cap hell, but they generally do a good job of preparing for losess (Addai for James, Jackson as a CB, Ugoh for Glenn). They generally run lower on depth than the Patriots but the front level positions are usually covered.

In 2008 there will be a lot of turnover on the Patriots roster, maybe the most since 2001 and it looks like a lot of young players or scrap heap veterans will be in key positions on the defense. Maybe I talked myself into it, if we have to (gun to head) draft a player in the top five and McFadden is available it could make sense, having an offense the consistently scores over 35 PPG covers up a lot of issues on defense.

Exactly, if NE has to worry about resigning Moss, keeping Stallworth, and others than what the heck makes people think they'd use that money on McFadden?

Here's something I recently posted on the subject of NE's first round pick:

The Patriots won't worry about getting full market value, as they'll consider the drop in contract prices part of the value. I think they would easily get a 2nd rounder in return for a trade down from 2-3 to 6-8, and if they wanted another 2nd for trading down to the 12-16 range. That's why I say if the Cowboys came calling with those two likely late first rounders, the Patriots would ask for an additional 2nd, but they wouldn't let fair market value get in their way. Again, the Patriots consider those type of picks and contracts to be gold. This is a lot different than some other teams, which is why NE can still keep making trades every year.

Some of us worry "Well, the Patriots are a potential championship team, and they've done very well with past trades, so teams aren't going to want to trade with them". Sorry, but that isn't the correct mindset. Think about it, if I thought someone like Glen Dorsey or McFadden were among the best college players to come out for a long time at their position and I had a need at that position, do you think I'd let NE's previous track record get in my way? All most teams are worried about is getting better, and selling tickets. If it takes giving up a top 10 pick plus their 2nd to move up for someone they really want they'll do it. If I thought that player was special, and I had a need for him I'd also see keeping him away from the Patriots as an added plus.

Remember, these guys have jobs on the line, and drafting one of the more well known players in the draft can provide you with a little job security, even if your team doesn't improve right away. Why? Because that well known player can pull in more ticket sales, and help revive the popularity (at least short term) of a losing team.

Getting back to the top 2-4 contracts. They will be substantially more than what NE has given players like Adalius Thomas, Rosevelt Colvin, Ty Warren, and others. A.D. Thomas received a $12M signing bonus, and his total take over five years will be $35.04M (including that signing bonus). Rosevelt Colvin signed a 6 year $25.85M contract which wasn't high at all when you realize he was among the top free agents that year. NE has since restructured that contract, which has increased his current and 2008 cap hit, but the overall deal when signed wasn't high. Ty Warren signed a 5 year $36M contract extension with $18M guaranteed.

Someone in the top 2-4 (especially McFadden) IS NOT going to get a contract simular in figures to those. Top 2-4 contracts are bringing in $50-59M+ with guaranteed money anywhere from $24-30M. For example, RB Reggie Bush received $24M guaranteed as part of his six year $54M contract. People who know contracts will tell you guaranteed money is the key, and these top picks are getting a ton of guaranteed money. This is why as Patriots fans we should realize Pioli and BB aren't likely to draft someone for that money.

 

[mcbee]

Exactly, if NE has to worry about resigning Moss, keeping Stallworth, and others than what the heck makes people think they'd use that money on McFadden?

Here's something I recently posted on the subject of NE's first round pick:

The Patriots won't worry about getting full market value, as they'll consider the drop in contract prices part of the value. I think they would easily get a 2nd rounder in return for a trade down from 2-3 to 6-8, and if they wanted another 2nd for trading down to the 12-16 range. That's why I say if the Cowboys came calling with those two likely late first rounders, the Patriots would ask for an additional 2nd, but they wouldn't let fair market value get in their way. Again, the Patriots consider those type of picks and contracts to be gold. This is a lot different than some other teams, which is why NE can still keep making trades every year.

Some of us worry "Well, the Patriots are a potential championship team, and they've done very well with past trades, so teams aren't going to want to trade with them". Sorry, but that isn't the correct mindset. Think about it, if I thought someone like Glen Dorsey or McFadden were among the best college players to come out for a long time at their position and I had a need at that position, do you think I'd let NE's previous track record get in my way? All most teams are worried about is getting better, and selling tickets. If it takes giving up a top 10 pick plus their 2nd to move up for someone they really want they'll do it. If I thought that player was special, and I had a need for him I'd also see keeping him away from the Patriots as an added plus.

Remember, these guys have jobs on the line, and drafting one of the more well known players in the draft can provide you with a little job security, even if your team doesn't improve right away. Why? Because that well known player can pull in more ticket sales, and help revive the popularity (at least short term) of a losing team.

Getting back to the top 2-4 contracts. They will be substantially more than what NE has given players like Adalius Thomas, Rosevelt Colvin, Ty Warren, and others. A.D. Thomas received a $12M signing bonus, and his total take over five years will be $35.04M (including that signing bonus). Rosevelt Colvin signed a 6 year $25.85M contract which wasn't high at all when you realize he was among the top free agents that year. NE has since restructured that contract, which has increased his current and 2008 cap hit, but the overall deal when signed wasn't high. Ty Warren signed a 5 year $36M contract extension with $18M guaranteed.

Someone in the top 2-4 (especially McFadden) IS NOT going to get a contract simular in figures to those. Top 2-4 contracts are bringing in $50-59M+ with guaranteed money anywhere from $24-30M. For example, RB Reggie Bush received $24M guaranteed as part of his six year $54M contract. People who know contracts will tell you guaranteed money is the key, and these top picks are getting a ton of guaranteed money. This is why as Patriots fans we should realize Pioli and BB aren't likely to draft someone for that money.

Exactly. It's gotten so bad that it's almost worth it to pay to trade down. You have to guarantee a guy huge money when he might not even be that good. The difference between the price you pay and the player you get is the worst at the top of the first round, unless you're talking about an Elway or Marino and sure-thing QBs bust all the time. The best place to add value is the 3rd-5th rounds...if you've done your scouting well, you can add a good player for peanuts.

Draft McFadden to keep him out of "gang green colors"? Yeah, that makes sense. Because they'd be unbeatable with him. OK.

 

[Crazyeechrispats1]

All I'm trying to say and I agree with everyone's points,
Is we have to at least look at the possibility that Mcfadden could be the highest rated player on their draft board.
Would it be a huge risk to draft him?
It definitely could blow up in our face, could it also make our ground game considerably better?
I see no instance in how it couldn't.
Do we have 3 solid rb's in Faulk, Maroney, and Morris?
Definitely could Mcfadden take the roster spot of Evans and possibly another player?
No question and it would be a huge upgrade at least in evans spot.
Now I know we could draft a guy in the second, third, fourth heck fifth sixth and seventh rounds and could possibly be a upgrade.
The draft is a inexact science.
The fact his coaches one who seen Barry Sanders first hand said he is like a Barry sanders clone show's this guy is special.
My preference would be to trade the pick for a kings ransom, only if we can get it.
It's almost like New Orleans with Reggie Bush, teams wanted to trade there was no offers they saw that appealed to them enough so they took him.
My draft dream scenario is that were picking ahead of the Jet's and BB holds Mangini over the fire for him giving up multiple picks in multiple years and or players.
Conventional wisdom is Mangini would draft a lineman or trade down.
Although we have to look at the prospect of Mangini being a desperate man and risking the future of the Rats for a guy who could be a potential AP clone.
I think that would be the sweetest victory ever to win the superbowl, I don't put much thought in the undefeated talk it be a incredible task.
Have Mangini give up the next 2 or 3 drafts for a guy he thinks can be his savior of his precious job in New York.
You know BB would just sprank wittle Eric so bad in a trade, that he'd never take the tinfoil hat off even on tv.
So these are some of my thoughts shoot I know the season isn't even over yet but what the niners are doing for the Patriots is beautiful so far and can't thank them enough.

 

[cstjohn17]

Getting back to the top 2-4 contracts. They will be substantially more than what NE has given players like Adalius Thomas, Rosevelt Colvin, Ty Warren, and others. A.D. Thomas received a $12M signing bonus, and his total take over five years will be $35.04M (including that signing bonus). Rosevelt Colvin signed a 6 year $25.85M contract which wasn't high at all when you realize he was among the top free agents that year. NE has since restructured that contract, which has increased his current and 2008 cap hit, but the overall deal when signed wasn't high. Ty Warren signed a 5 year $36M contract extension with $18M guaranteed.

So essentially the Pats signed AD and Ty Warren for the same money as a top 5 pick.

Here is a breakdown of the Salaries from last year's first round (2007):
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=627871&postcount=1

 

[Crazyeechrispats1]

Yes I see a trade down I guess I just hope we spank the team we trade with in the deal and I hope it's the Jet's who make that deal with the devil so to speak.

 

[sebman2112]

All I'm trying to say and I agree with everyone's points,
Is we have to at least look at the possibility that Mcfadden could be the highest rated player on their draft board.
Would it be a huge risk to draft him?
It definitely could blow up in our face, could it also make our ground game considerably better?
I see no instance in how it couldn't.
Do we have 3 solid rb's in Faulk, Maroney, and Morris?
Definitely could Mcfadden take the roster spot of Evans and possibly another player?
No question and it would be a huge upgrade at least in evans spot.
Now I know we could draft a guy in the second, third, fourth heck fifth sixth and seventh rounds and could possibly be a upgrade.
The draft is a inexact science.
The fact his coaches one who seen Barry Sanders first hand said he is like a Barry sanders clone show's this guy is special.
My preference would be to trade the pick for a kings ransom, only if we can get it.
It's almost like New Orleans with Reggie Bush, teams wanted to trade there was no offers they saw that appealed to them enough so they took him.
My draft dream scenario is that were picking ahead of the Jet's and BB holds Mangini over the fire for him giving up multiple picks in multiple years and or players.
Conventional wisdom is Mangini would draft a lineman or trade down.
Although we have to look at the prospect of Mangini being a desperate man and risking the future of the Rats for a guy who could be a potential AP clone.I think that would be the sweetest victory ever to win the superbowl, I don't put much thought in the undefeated talk it be a incredible task.
Have Mangini give up the next 2 or 3 drafts for a guy he thinks can be his savior of his precious job in New York.You know BB would just sprank wittle Eric so bad in a trade, that he'd never take the tinfoil hat off even on tv.
So these are some of my thoughts shoot I know the season isn't even over yet but what the niners are doing for the Patriots is beautiful so far and can't thank them enough.

Darren McFadden is absolutely NOT a Barry Sanders clone. His running style and physical build are completely different. I'm a big time fan of Sanders, so I already know, but for the younger members of the board here's a video highlighting his ability. Someone's just trying to sell McFadden high. If anything he's more like a combo of Marcus Allen and the USC OJ Simpson. That's not a bad thing at all mind you, I'm just saying that comparison is completely off the mark.

The Jets and Patriots likely WILL NOT trade with eachother, as their is to much bad blood between the two franchises.

Mangini might be that stupid, but I doubt the Jets would make that kind of trade with NE. Plus, the Jets suck, so they are likely going to pick ahead of the Patriots anyways.

 

[dryheat44]

Darren McFadden is absolutely NOT a Barry Sanders clone. His running style and physical build are completely different. I'm a big time fan of Sanders, so I already know, but for the younger members of the board here's a video highlighting his ability. Someone's just trying to sell McFadden high. If anything he's more like a combo of Marcus Allen and the USC OJ Simpson. That's not a bad thing at all mind you, I'm just saying that comparison is completely off the mark.

He reminds me most of former Buckeye/Viking Robert Smith.

 

[sebman2112]

He reminds me most of former Buckeye/Viking Robert Smith.

I can see that comparison too, but to compare him to Barry Sanders? Seems pretty insane to me.

 

[DaBruinz]

Pardon me, but this is one of my pet peeves. BB absolutely drafts for need! When has he ever used a 1st or 2nd on a guy who wouldn't be counted on to start by his 2nd season? On the rare occasion that there's a hole in the starting lineup -- e.g. LG in 2005 -- he drafts to that position. You just might not notice it because he carefully tries to avoid leaving those obvious holes, thus giving the team more flexibility on draft day.

You cannot talk about "value" independent of need. Brady Quinn would have been a "value" pick for a lot of teams at #24 last year, but not for the Patriots.

NEED is only part of the package with how the Patriots draft. Its part of the equation they use. But NEED is not the driving force behind their picks. This has been discussed ad nauseum and Belichick and Pioli have confirmed they don't draft by NEED. The equation the Pats use is composed of 3 categories. Tangibles, Intangibles, and Team need. Tangibles and intangibles are a much bigger driver than need. And the Pats have shown that. Otherwise, the Pats wouldn't have taken Kareem Brown over a LB.

Drafting by NEED means you draft based on what is plaguing your team NOW. It means you REACH for picks that may not be the best value at the time.

 

[ayjackson]

Otherwise, the Pats wouldn't have taken Kareem Brown over a LB.

To suggest this as a deduction from Patchick's argument is ridiculous. She stated that need was a component of value, and an important one, not that the Patriots only draft by need.

 

[Remix 6]

if any RB would fit this team best it would be Stewart because his power and size...and he plays @ a spread offense ..sort of...at Oregon

 

[dryheat44]

if any RB would fit this team best it would be Stewart because his power and size...and he plays @ a spread offense ..sort of...at Oregon

I would agree...but I would rather wait a round or three and pick up James Davis.

 

[cstjohn17]

Stewart is good, he is shiftier than you would expect for a 230+ pounder, showed pretty good hands in the games I saw.

Although I have only seen him in glimpses the Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall has been very impressive.

 

[patchick]

Drafting by NEED means you draft based on what is plaguing your team NOW. It means you REACH for picks that may not be the best value at the time.

Umm...ok, if you write your own narrow, extreme definition of "drafting for need," then the Pats don't do that thing. All I'm saying is that the oft-repeated statement that the Pats have a BPA-type philosophy doesn't fit their history. Meriweather, Maroney, Mankins and Wilfork all filled obvious needs fans could see on the team.

To suggest this as a deduction from Patchick's argument is ridiculous. She stated that need was a component of value, and an important one, not that the Patriots only draft by need.

Thanks!

 

[DaBruinz]

To suggest this as a deduction from Patchick's argument is ridiculous. She stated that need was a component of value, and an important one, not that the Patriots only draft by need.

Its not ridiculous and you clearly didn't read what she said or you ignored how she started off. She started off saying that :

BB absolutely drafts for need!

Just because she contradicts herself by describing how the Pats draft on VALUE and that NEED is part of that Value equation doesn't change the fact that the Pats don't draft based on NEED.

Drafting for NEED means that you pick the player at a position where they are going to be starting immediately. Drafting for NEED is not drafting a player that you will slowly work into the starting line-up in a year or two.

Had you actually read the entirety of my post, you'd have understood the difference between drafting by NEED and drafting by VALUE.

 

[DaBruinz]

Umm...ok, if you write your own narrow, extreme definition of "drafting for need," then the Pats don't do that thing. All I'm saying is that the oft-repeated statement that the Pats have a BPA-type philosophy doesn't fit their history. Meriweather, Maroney, Mankins and Wilfork all filled obvious needs fans could see on the team.

Its not MY own narrow, extreme definition. Its the COMMON definition of drafting by NEED. Anyone who has participated in the draft discussions over the past few years knows this.

Also, anyone who knows a thing about the Pats knows that they don't draft based on BPA. In fact, the oft-repeated statement by Pats fans who discuss the draft is that the Pats draft on VALUE. Not on NEED and not on BPA.

While Wilfork, Meriweather, Maroney, and Mankins were drafted to fill needs, they were NOT drafted solely based on NEED. They were drafted based on value.

Meriweather- Prior to the draft, the Pats had Harrison, Sander, and Wilson at Safety. Drafting based on NEED would have led the Pats to take HARRIS, a LB. Since the Pats depth there was thinner than at Safety.

Maroney - The Pats already had Dillon, Faulk and Evans. Why would they draft Maroney? Not out of NEED. Because the Pats didn't NEED Maroney last year. They drafted him on VALUE.

Mankins - Again, another VALUE pick. Not a NEED pick as they could have put Yates, Gorin or Hochstein there.

Wilfork - Only one that could be considered a NEED pick as they didn't have a legit NT at the time.

What BB has tried to do pretty regularly is to add players so they can get a year of experience in the system before they are NEEDED. That way they can be more productive in the system at crucial times.

What you described was the Patriots drafting by VALUE, of which NEED is a component. Its not the PRIMARY factor though.

 

[patchick]

Its not MY own narrow, extreme definition. Its the COMMON definition of drafting by NEED. Anyone who has participated in the draft discussions over the past few years knows this.

Hold on a second. You entered a thread that had already been going on for a week and supplied your own definition of a term that others in the thread had been clearly using very differently. Then using your newly supplied definition, you went back and said the people who posted before you made false statements. Not kosher, DaBruinz. You may not like my definition, but don't pretend I was following yours! Take a look at an example of my usage of "need" posted in this thread a week before you joined in:

"After the FA signings, including A. Thomas, the Pats had no real need at ANY position for 2007. They did have a glaring need at safety for 2008."

Yet you took me to task based on the following definition--which is completely antithetical to my actual statements:

"Drafting for NEED means that you pick the player at a position where they are going to be starting immediately. Drafting for NEED is not drafting a player that you will slowly work into the starting line-up in a year or two."


Come on, no need (err..."reason" ) to put words in my mouth. Nobody thinks the Pats have a knee-jerk, short-term draft philosophy. Here's what I'm actually trying to say.


It's often suggested on the board that the Pats draft the best player available regardless of need, which I strongly disagree with. I think that BB/SP's history suggests that:

- They try hard to configure their roster with FA signings to avoid any glaring holes in the lineup heading into the draft. This helps them avoid getting backed into a corner, and gives them the flexibility to scoop up a sliding player at a "luxury" position or to trade away picks when good offers come along. But...

- On the rare occasions that a starting position does remain unfilled, they tend to draft aggressively toward it (e.g. Logan Mankins, Stephen Gostkowski), and...

- A Patriots 1st-round pick should be looking at a starting opportunity by year 2, virtually no exceptions. A 2nd-round pick should be the same, unless you're talking about a rare physical specimen who you wouldn't normally expect to find at that point in the draft (e.g. Marquise Hill). By the middle rounds you have a lot more leeway.


Nothing radical, I think.