Don't take them lightly

[Gumby]

Well we know BB and company wont; but it seems like the PatsFans poster board is starting to overlook the Jills. There is a curious and unusual lack of current game commentary threads and opinions this week.

Since it is a Divisional game (always dangerous) and the Jills when their front office and coaching staff don't make idiot decisions (like starting Losman instead of Edwards) they can be a solid and dangerous team. Especially on their own home field. I don't expect the first half to be a cake walk and if the Pats have any kind of bye-week lethargy it could turn into a trap game.

But it got me to thinking; rank ordering the next opponents: Who has the best chance to trip up the undefeated season. Because I intuitively thought buffy should be #2. So laying them all out here is where I came out.

SCHEDULE:
18 Nov (Sun-NT) @ Buffy
25 Nov (Sun-NT) PHI (home)
3 Dec (Mon-Nt) @ BAL
9 Dec (Sun-4pm) PITT (home)
16 Dec (Sun-1pm) NYJ (home)
23 Dec (Sun-1pm) MIA (home)
29 Dec (Sat-NT) @ NYG

MOST LIKELY TO STOP 16-0 RECORD CHASE:
1. Pitt: big, bruising lines; spoiling for a fight and want to ace out indy for the bye week. coming after 2 other physical teams on a short week.

2. Buffy: Div opponent at home. Especially tough if we take losman out again and the backup comes in.

3. NYG: good team at home with most likely a playoff spot on the line; Also on a short week. but I dont think their secondary can stop NE and NYG offense is too inconsistent. So I think Buffy is more dangerous.

The rest are really also rans - I don't think they have much chance other than the any given sunday argument.
4. PHI: I dont buy Donovan hype that much and we always say BB can take away 1 player. after westbrook what do they have?
5. BAL: In their weak divison they may have something to play for; but QBs for them dont scare anyone.
6. NYJ: toss up to flip them and Bal. Plus game is in NE.
7. MIA: ricky williams make a difference? naah. also in NE.

 

[spacecrime]

a solid and dangerous team. Especially on their own home field. I don't expect the first half to be a cake walk and if the Pats have any kind of bye-week lethargy it could turn into a trap game.

Pats are well-known for lethargy and lack of focus. We're doomed.

 

[tombonneau]

I'd say rank them to scale as such:

Pitt



NYG

Philly
Bills








Bal





Mia







































































NYJ

 

[alamo]

1. Nyg
2. Pit
3. Buf

 

[Oswlek]

I don't expect the first half to be a cake walk and if the Pats have any kind of bye-week lethargy it could turn into a trap game.

NE 29
Buf 6

NE 35
Buf 7

NE 28
Buf 6

These are the scores of the second Buffalo games in the past couple years. The last of which was after a bye and after Buffalo nearly beat NE at home.

This game may be close, but it won't be because of lethargy.

 

[letekro]

I'll take them lightly, thank you very much. Their offense consists of Marshawn Lynch and throwing it in the general direction of Lee Evans. Option #1 is off the table, and we all know how the Pats D can take away the thing you like to do best, so Option #2 isn't so hot either.

On defense, they can't stop the run, or the pass - They're 28th in the league.

Their much hyped 4-game win streak has come against Baltimore and Cincy at home and NYJ and MIA on the road. All of these games were very close. Keep in mind that those are 3 of the 4 worst offenses in the NFL (Buffalo being the other).

Unless something fluky happens, i.e., multiple returns for TD's, I see this as a 3-4 score game.

 

[Pujo]

On a good day for the Bills, and a really bad day for the Pats, they could beat us. That's why it's important for the team to treat them like they're dangerous. But like you said, they probably are taking them seriously. I let Belichick do my worrying for me.

 

[stcjones]

Well we know BB and company wont; but it seems like the PatsFans poster board is starting to overlook the Jills. There is a curious and unusual lack of current game commentary threads and opinions this week.

Since it is a Divisional game (always dangerous) and the Jills when their front office and coaching staff don't make idiot decisions (like starting Losman instead of Edwards) they can be a solid and dangerous team. Especially on their own home field. I don't expect the first half to be a cake walk and if the Pats have any kind of bye-week lethargy it could turn into a trap game.

But it got me to thinking; rank ordering the next opponents: Who has the best chance to trip up the undefeated season. Because I intuitively thought buffy should be #2. So laying them all out here is where I came out.

SCHEDULE:
18 Nov (Sun-NT) @ Buffy
25 Nov (Sun-NT) PHI (home)
3 Dec (Mon-Nt) @ BAL
9 Dec (Sun-4pm) PITT (home)
16 Dec (Sun-1pm) NYJ (home)
23 Dec (Sun-1pm) MIA (home)
29 Dec (Sat-NT) @ NYG

MOST LIKELY TO STOP 16-0 RECORD CHASE:
1. Pitt: big, bruising lines; spoiling for a fight and want to ace out indy for the bye week. coming after 2 other physical teams on a short week.

2. Buffy: Div opponent at home. Especially tough if we take losman out again and the backup comes in.

3. NYG: good team at home with most likely a playoff spot on the line; Also on a short week. but I dont think their secondary can stop NE and NYG offense is too inconsistent. So I think Buffy is more dangerous.

The rest are really also rans - I don't think they have much chance other than the any given sunday argument.
4. PHI: I dont buy Donovan hype that much and we always say BB can take away 1 player. after westbrook what do they have?
5. BAL: In their weak divison they may have something to play for; but QBs for them dont scare anyone.
6. NYJ: toss up to flip them and Bal. Plus game is in NE.
7. MIA: ricky williams make a difference? naah. also in NE.

You said this all in the first line....The Pats will not take this game lightly...this is an improved team from the one we played earlier in the season.....and it could be a "trap" game being away at Buffalo......BUT, we didn't allow Dallas' fired up fans or Indy's piped in fan noise to bother us...so I doubt the Bills will.........and ....they will most likely be without Lynch which is a huge advantage.....Anyways, I see the Pats winning this one by 21 points this weekend.......

 

[Ring 6]

Why would you expect fans of the Pats to be concerned? The truth is, other than playing a top flight team like Indy, you cannot help but feel like the game isn't going to be competitive because none have. Its not a thought out response or an agenda, its reality. How many game minutes this year have you thought the outcome was in jeopardy? Maybe one full game combined out of 9 (and thats including when its 0-0 or 7-0).
I know that games to me feel almost anti-climactic, and its not on purpose, just the reality of what this team is doing.
Absolutely we could lose any game any week. While as fans its easy to feel there is no way we can lose, and end up surprised what is different about this team, IMO, is every game is treated as such. We will not play any differently this Sunday because we are 9-0 than we would if we were 6-3, 3-6 or 0-9. That's what separates BB IMO. He doesn't coach a season, he coaches 16 individual segments of a season. As Bruschi said, it wasn't a 21 game winning streak it was 21 one game winning streaks.

As far as ranking the difficulty of opponents, I have never bought in to game being decided by whether or not a team was going to try harder that week for some reason. "They need a win" "It could decide the playoffs" "division rival" (this one has some validity not because they will try harder but because their is more familiarity, although that seems to favor us), etc have never been shown to me as factors that make any difference. If teams won more because they 'needed it' we wouldn't see the trends in the NFL where every year teams back in to the playoffs, or teams that are almost a lock lose their way out of the playoffs. I would bet that if you analyzed how teams played in games they 'needed' or there was some kind of outside motivation, you would find that they win or lose those just as often as they win or lose all of their games against similar opponents.

I see it this way. We are superior to every team on our schedule. The suprerior team does not always win or you would have a few undefeated teams every year. However, the way the Pats prepare, they are VERY rarely upset. When you add the LARGE difference in talent to the quality that the team has shown to play near their talent most times, it seems very unlikely the Bills could beat us on any day, much less any of the remaining opponents.

That said, football games can turn on just a few plays. Look at our TD drives this season. I would say the typical TD drive has hinged on executing 3-4 plays that if we didn't the drive would have stalled. (Drop a 3rd down pass, miss a block on a 3rd down run, tipped ball, sack from a protection breakdown, etc) It doesn't take a miracle to have one of those plays go wrong on numerous drives in a game. On the other side of the ball, things such as a bad pi call, like the one on Hobbs vs Indy add points for the other team that have nothing to do with the gap in talent. Of course things can go wrong, and the better team can lose.
However, one of the characteristics of being the 'better team' is that no matter what goes right or wrong all day,if the game is close, you possess the ability to play your best on game-deciding plays. This team (from 2001 forward) possesses that quality more, and more by a mile, than any team I have ever seen.

My 'prediction' is that winning the final 7 games will come with few moments of pressure where losing is possible, but when those times come, the Patriots are a very strong bet to make the plays that overcome them.

I think the best way to look at this is to ask yourself a couple of questions.
1) If you were going to bet $1,000 on the Bills to win outright ths week (and lets assume that this $1000 was earmarked for an extra Xmas present for your wife) what odds would you have to get back to make that bet? To me it would have to be at least 25-1.
2) Similar scenario. You can bet that $1000 even money on either the Pats ending up undefeated or losing at least one game. I would without question bet it on winning all 7.

Take away all the emotion, fear of jinxing, etc, and look at those 2 questions, answer them honestly, and I think you'll see why most fans aren't spending a lot of time considering the possibility we could lose to the Bills.

 

[Ring 6]

You said this all in the first line....The Pats will not take this game lightly...this is an improved team from the one we played earlier in the season.....and it could be a "trap" game being away at Buffalo......BUT, we didn't allow Dallas' fired up fans or Indy's piped in fan noise to bother us...so I doubt the Bills will.........and ....they will most likely be without Lynch which is a huge advantage.....Anyways, I see the Pats winning this one by 21 points this weekend.......

What is a 'trap game'?
I dont think such a thing exists, and the term only exists because fans of teams that lose games to weaker teams are trying to find an excuse.
I would bet if you defined a 'trap game' however you chose to, and looked at all 32 teams over the past 5 years, you would find that their winning percentage in so-called trap games is basically identical to their win % in all other games.

 

[edzo44]

We don't.
We won't.
And we went through this yesterday!

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=67355

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Why shouldn't I take them lightly?

NE beat them 38-7 earlier this year. NE is healthy and coming off a bye. Lynch won't play.

It won't be close.

 

[RussFrancis]

If it makes you feel any better, none of us posting opinions here actually play for the Patriots. So what we actually think won't really impact the game. We're simply saying the things that the players themselves are too smart to say. Which is that this game will be a bigtime beatdown. And being that it's now a primetime game, the national audience is going to get hammered with nothing but NE's undefeated season and greatest team of all time talk for atleast a solid hour and a half. So, get your defenses ready. We're about to be despised more than ever before.

 

[FrontSeven]

Quite fankly (as you'd expect) I don't get too excited about divisional games this year. Well, except for the up coming Jets annihilation I don't. I almost can't bother to get too excited. I will be on Sunday, right before kickoff, but I'm not losing much sleep this week worrying about Aaron Schoebel.

I sure ain't worrying about JP Losman. The Bills will score a couple, maybe. Big deal.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Thankfully former Bill Marcellus Wiley is helping the Patriots get "up" for this game by ignorantly continuing to call for an asterix on this season!

Aside from that the Pats will look at the Bills as a 5-4 team - even though their offensive production is among the weakest in the league.

 

[Patriot Power]

Bills without Lynch = W

The question is whether they cover... not if they'll win.

 

[godef]

Well we know BB and company wont; but it seems like the PatsFans poster board is starting to overlook the Jills.

Well, that's can be easy to do when you insist on calling them the "Jills".

Caught you!