How is strength of schedule applied to our SF pick?

[shakadave]

I know that draft order is determined by W-L record, and if two (non-playoff) teams are tied, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule.

Now here's my best guess, but does anyone know if it's right?

Say SF is tied with Cincinnati, and SF played a STRONGER schedule strength than Cinci played. That means SF is considered a BETTER team than Cinci, so that SF picks AFTER Cinci.

On the other hand, if SF played a WEAKER strength of schedule than Cinci, SF is considered the worse team, and drafts AHEAD of Cinci. Pats fans would want this scenario, and I believe SF has played one of the weakest strengths-of-schedule in the whole league.

 

[BelichickFan]

Yes, SF's weak SoS is to OUR benefit. Within a tied record group, the weaker SoS moves up.

 

[scout]

I know that draft order is determined by W-L record, and if two (non-playoff) teams are tied, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule.

Now here's my best guess, but does anyone know if it's right?

Say SF is tied with Cincinnati, and SF played a STRONGER schedule strength than Cinci played. That means SF is considered a BETTER team than Cinci, so that SF picks AFTER Cinci.

On the other hand, if SF played a WEAKER strength of schedule than Cinci, SF is considered the worse team, and drafts AHEAD of Cinci. Pats fans would want this scenario, and I believe SF has played one of the weakest strengths-of-schedule in the whole league.

To answer your question, I don't know. However, I don't believe we have to worry about Cincy as they will win some games. The Rams play the 49er's this week and could tie them for wins (2). The Jets could beat Miami and would also be tied at 2. Those two teams are the ones where strength of schedule comes into play.

 

[spacecrime]

I know that draft order is determined by W-L record, and if two (non-playoff) teams are tied, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule.

Now here's my best guess, but does anyone know if it's right?

Say SF is tied with Cincinnati, and SF played a STRONGER schedule strength than Cinci played. That means SF is considered a BETTER team than Cinci, so that SF picks AFTER Cinci.

On the other hand, if SF played a WEAKER strength of schedule than Cinci, SF is considered the worse team, and drafts AHEAD of Cinci. Pats fans would want this scenario, and I believe SF has played one of the weakest strengths-of-schedule in the whole league.

You have it right. Note that this is for Round One. In Round Two and later rounds, the places of tied teams shift, with the team that was picking first in any tied grouping moving the the end of the group, and every other team in the grouping moving up.

I'm sure I said this in the most confusing way possible, but basically, if SF, Cincy and Atlanta are all tied with say, 4-12 records, and SF has the weakest schedule, Cincy the second weakest, and Atlanta the strongest schedule of the three, the order would be:

Round One:
SF
Cincy
Atl

Round 2:
Cincy
Atl
SF

Round 3:
Atl
SF
CIncy

Round 4
SF
Cincy
Atl

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I know that draft order is determined by W-L record, and if two (non-playoff) teams are tied, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule.

Now here's my best guess, but does anyone know if it's right?

Say SF is tied with Cincinnati, and SF played a STRONGER schedule strength than Cinci played. That means SF is considered a BETTER team than Cinci, so that SF picks AFTER Cinci.

On the other hand, if SF played a WEAKER strength of schedule than Cinci, SF is considered the worse team, and drafts AHEAD of Cinci. Pats fans would want this scenario, and I believe SF has played one of the weakest strengths-of-schedule in the whole league.

I posted this thread last year (w.r.t. SEA):

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=46892

[I'll probably make a new SF-specific version this weekend; hopefully the mods can sticky it here or in the draft forum.]

The short answer to your question, though, is that your hunch is correct--the easier SF's schedule, the higher the pick the Pats will get.

 

[JoePats]

The Rams/9ers game is a huge swing game...The Rams probably can't make up a 2 game deficit with 6 to play...

But if they are tied: obviously two division teams play 14 of the same games and then two different games...

San Fran: Giants, Vikings
St Louis: Cowboys, Packers

So San Fran, based on easier schedule, will definatley pick ahead of St Louis...the only catch is St Louie has a tougher schedule down the stretch.

 

[xmarkd400x]

To answer your question, I don't know. However, I don't believe we have to worry about Cincy as they will win some games. The Rams play the 49er's this week and could tie them for wins (2). The Jets could beat Miami and would also be tied at 2. Those two teams are the ones where strength of schedule comes into play.

In that case the Pats best go 16-0. Wouldn't that mean that, since they (Phins and Jests) play the Pats twice, their strength of schedule would include two 16 win teams? I'd like SF's odds if the Jests and Phins have 32-0 as part of their SoS.

 

[eom]

I think miami wins 2 of these:
balt
buffalo
jets

st louis wins a couple more

san fran doesn't win another game.

jets and oakland are a problem, but I don't know the sos tiebreakers for oak, miami, sf.

maybe pats get second pick.

how the hell does a team go from the playoffs to the worst team in the league in one year?
or from the superbowl......nevermind.

 

[Nordy]

In that case the Pats best go 16-0. Wouldn't that mean that, since they (Phins and Jests) play the Pats twice, their strength of schedule would include two 16 win teams? I'd like SF's odds if the Jests and Phins have 32-0 as part of their SoS.

Yeah I'm pretty sure that's how it works. The Jets and Fins would have two games against a 16-0 team counted in their SoS. That would be huge.

 

[eom]

so, if jets beat miami, and miami beats buffalo and baltimore, then san fran fights it out w/oak on sos for #1 pick?
sweet.

 

[RussFrancis]

so, if jets beat miami, and miami beats buffalo and baltimore, then san fran fights it out w/oak on sos for #1 pick?
sweet.

hey, its twitch. are you guys really talking about the #1 overall pick at this point? Im calling 'mercy' on the entire San Fran season. been following this thing all season, and at this point, I just cant stand to watch anymore. I know one thing for sure, though. San Fran is losing to the Rams, and I seriously doubt theyll win more than 1 more game. The MN game. And with any luck, Peterson will be back by then.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

This thread is awsome. Thanks guys. Answered some questions I was thinking. I love our chances of gaining ground on St Louis and NYJ but Miami will most likely get the 1st pick. So we root for StL, NYJ, and Oak for week 11.

 

[eom]

hey twitch.


minn will stuff gore and sf will have to rely on the arm of alex smith....

doesn't sound so likely now, does it?

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

hey, its twitch. are you guys really talking about the #1 overall pick at this point? Im calling 'mercy' on the entire San Fran season. been following this thing all season, and at this point, I just cant stand to watch anymore. I know one thing for sure, though. San Fran is losing to the Rams, and I seriously doubt theyll win more than 1 more game. The MN game. And with any luck, Peterson will be back by then.

Yeah with that easy schedule comes a better chance to pick up a couple wins. That Vikings game as well as @Carolina are the only games SF could pickup. Min run defense should win that game alone and I hope the long travel hurts them in Carolina. I like our chances because footballoutsiders has SF as the 3rd worst team since 1996(#1 is SF in '05). Can Mike Nolan say hot seat?

 

[shakadave]

Great information here!

I love the idea that we benefit from the Round 1 tiebreaker, then waltz out of there before the reversed order of Round 2 comes into play.

Miami has the farthest to go to "catch" SF (Don't you love thinking backwards?), so I've given up on that one. I'll hope instead for the simultaneous 16-0/0-16. But the race for #2 could be interesting if St. Louis beats SF.

By the way, we should go back and kick ourselves an extra time for those two photo finishes SF won at the start of the season. For awhile they were Seattle-2006-like, but then it passed.

 

[eom]

dude, miami has lost half it's games by only a field goal.

they play buffalo again, hapless baltimore, and the sorry jets.

they can totally win 2 games this year --- go miami!!

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

I thought Miami was set to play the Jets but apparently they play the Eagles. So Miami only has to stop Westbrook and maybe Ginn can return a punt or something. Keep it close and Reid will lose it. Too bad the Jets play the Steelers. Two BB 3-4 D in a row for Big Ben. I hope the Bye week helps the Jets beat those erratic Steelers.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

Every team in the league should win at least one more with 7 weeks remaining. I'm glad SF is a lock for weakest SoS. Oakland suffers because they play the AFC South.

 

[solman]

I know that draft order is determined by W-L record, and if two (non-playoff) teams are tied, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule.

Now here's my best guess, but does anyone know if it's right?

Say SF is tied with Cincinnati, and SF played a STRONGER schedule strength than Cinci played. That means SF is considered a BETTER team than Cinci, so that SF picks AFTER Cinci.

On the other hand, if SF played a WEAKER strength of schedule than Cinci, SF is considered the worse team, and drafts AHEAD of Cinci. Pats fans would want this scenario, and I believe SF has played one of the weakest strengths-of-schedule in the whole league.

That's right, but here is the simplified, 99% correct version:

If San Francisco finishes the season with the same record as any other team or teams, the Patriots will pick before the team(s) they are tied with.

Amongst losing teams, only Arizona has a good shot of winning the tie breaker, and they probably won't. (Arizona wins the tie breaker if Detroit and Washington have a worse combined record than Minnesota and the Giants. That gives San Francisco a two game edge right now with the Minnesota game still ahead of them [Lose and there probably won't be a tie to break. Win and they add to their tie breaker lead.])