I imagine dungy is correct that it's often not called.
I think it's very hard for an official to pull the flag on that play -- how can you ever be sure that the player was trying to simulate a snap to draw a penalty. I've seen this called before, and most of the time it happens, it's because the simulating action actually works and draws the defender to cross the line and make contact or be unabated to the quarterback.
In those situations, the ref has no choice but to make a hard decision and decide whether it really was "simulating" the snap. If the same thing happens in the middle of the field in a non critical situation and no defender is drawn offsides, I would imagine most refs just keep the flag in their pockets on a no harm no foul analysis.
I have no problem with that. The problem here is that the ref knows exactly what the colts were trying to do. There's no guess work. The player made an abrupt motion to try to simulate the snap. While you might give the offensive player the benefit of the doubt on this play in most circumstances, when a team is facing 4th down with a chip shot field goal, down by 2, with under 2 minutes to go in the game, the ref is permitted to take that into account and reason that they have no desire to snap the ball and are lining up PRECISELY to simulate a snap.
The other thing that's absurd is that the colts were either going to take a 5-yard penalty anyway (for delay) OR they were going to use the very time out that Dungy apologized to his team for taking. They were NOT going to snap the ball, and they didn't have time to run the FG unit onto the field, so those were the only two options.
This is exactly what I spoke of earlier, or in another thread.