Colts Cap Mismanagement in Focus

[AzPatsFan]

The Colts were indeed heading for CAP Hell, but Polian addressed the problem this past off season. He did relieve the coming CAP hell, as Miquel will attest.

To do it, he took a long-odds, calculated gamble and is predictably losing that bet. What he did was to let 8 to 10 of his veteran starters (and their high salaries), depart in Free Agency and replace them with their backups, who were trained, and in some cases pushing for playing time, like his CBs.

When he did this though, it meant that the new starters backups would have to be raw rookies or UDFA free agents. He gambled that his starters would not get injured; he gambled that his low round draft picks would be extraordinarily successful. He gambled that he could get away with this lack of depth for a couple of drafts, until he could rebuild his team's depth.

Polian thought he would get away with it, because the team had not suffered from injuries the past few seasons, and he reasoned that the finesse, speed, game they played, led to fewer injuries than playing power football.

In the end, he gambled because he essentially had no choice. If he did nothing, then the Colts would descend into the CAP Hell that forced the Titans and 49ers to dismantle their Teams. he would have to start doing that in 2008 and 2009. Now he doesn't anymore, at least for a few more years.

But a couple of things intervened. A very good player Tarik Glenn retired. Marvin Harrison started to act like a brittle 35 year old that he is. Both have big DEAD CAP money due, and they will be payed whether they play or not. And Peyton is 33 and he is already entering the declining years of QBs. He has only five more years at best as a top QB.

 

[Metaphors]

Please explain how a team that was under the 2007 cap by $14 million late September AND under the 2008 cap by $11 million will lack cap space to improve their team.

Please explain how a team that was under the 2007 cap by $14 million late September AND under the 2008 cap by $11 million will not use that cap space to improve their team.

My take? One of the following is true:

a) The Colts' FO is cheap
b) The Colts' FO is stupid
c) There is more going on behind those numbers than is being discussed here

I vote for c).

 

[patriot lifer]

i wonder if and for how much they would resign Bob Sanders. I don't think he's resigned...right?

 

[Miguel]

Please explain how a team that was under the 2007 cap by $14 million late September AND under the 2008 cap by $11 million will not use that cap space to improve their team.

My take? One of the following is true:

a) The Colts' FO is cheap
b) The Colts' FO is stupid
c) There is more going on behind those numbers than is being discussed here

I vote for c).

IMO, it is rather difficult to improve a team during the season with street free agents.

 

[patriot lifer]

IMO, it is rather difficult to improve a team during the season with street free agents.

i'd play cheap

 

[Miguel]

i wonder if and for how much they would resign Bob Sanders. I don't think he's resigned...right?

I say for a little less than Troy P.

 

[Miguel]

The Colts were indeed heading for CAP Hell, but Polian addressed the problem this past off season. He did relieve the coming CAP hell, as Miquel will attest..

I will not.

FYI - Tarik Glenn's dead money is not that big and he will be off the books in 2009.
Manning is not 33.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

I will not.

FYI - Tarik Glenn's dead money is not that big and he will be off the books in 2009.
Manning is not 33.

Peyton Manning will be 32 1/2 yrs old when he starts the 2008 season. By comparison, Tom Brady would have just turned 31.

 

[Miguel]

Peyton Manning will be 32 1/2 yrs old when he starts the 2008 season. By comparison, Tom Brady would have just turned 31.

True but my point is that if you say that Manning is 33 now you are implying that Manning will be 34 when the 2008 season starts which is simply not true. If a 33-year old only has 5 more years left as a top QB, then a 31-year old would have 7.

 

[Miguel]

Was it risky for the Pats
to give Seymour $24 million in signing bonuses last year??
to give Brady $31.78 million in signing bonuses in 2005/2006/2007??
to give AT $20 million in signing bonuses in 2007/2008??

I think so and I hope that the Pats continue to take those type of risks.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I will not.

FYI - Tarik Glenn's dead money is not that big and he will be off the books in 2009.
Manning is not 33.

Miquel,

Thank's for the corrections. But it was incidental to the real thrust of my post. Glenn's retirement was somewhat of a surprise to many. Although the Colt's purchase of a high draft pick to secure Tony Ugoh must have meant they had glimmers of the impending retirement.

Do you not agree that Polian responsibly addressed and solved his CAP problems by letting many starters go in Free Agency this past off season? Don't you agree that this was a prudent and foresighted CAP management, but that it constituted a gamble on the replacements stepping up and playing well?

Whether Glenn has a high dead money or not, it is there and he is not; just as Harrison's money is there, and he is not, and may never be again. Even if Harrison returns, he may be a shell of his former self. Troy like Marvin is not what he was, and both are now coming off injuries to their wheels. But Troy's compensation reflects that fact, and Harrison's does not, as yet.

 

[solman]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=62553&highlight=adamjt13

Please explain how a team that was under the 2007 cap by $14 million late September AND under the 2008 cap by $11 million will lack cap space to improve their team.

You selectively quoted me. Here is the original quote:

"Even if he does recover, the Colts lack the cap space or the draft picks to add their missing depth, or grow through free agency like the Titans and Jaguars will."

By my calculation (probably using the same AdamJT13 numbers that you are using) the total available space for these three teams is:

Titans: $53.8M
Jags: $51.1M
Colts: $25.6M


It gets worse:

The Colts can create $7.6M by cutting Marvin Harrison, but he'll still count for $7.4M in future dead money (In addition to $4.4M that we have already counted), so this only marginally improves their cap situation.

Peyton's contract is already so heavily back loaded that he will count $18.7M against the cap and they can only save $9.2M of that by converting his salary to a bonus.

They need to re-sign Bob Sanders and Dallas Clark[*] plus starters Lilja and Scott on their ailing offensive line.


Even if they decided to ignore the 2009 cap consequences, cut Harrison, and restructured Peyton's salary, they would still have less money ($42.4M) than either of their main divisional rivals. They would then have to use this money to replace (or re-sign) Harrison, Clark, Sanders, Lilja and Scott plus any of the injured players that never returns to form. They still wouldn't have good depth. And in 2009 Peyton's cap hit plus Marvin's dead money would cost $30.9M against the cap (23.5+7.4).

They don't even have a #1 draft choice in 2008 to help make repairs.

I'm not saying that they have a Washington style total salary cap disaster waiting for them in the off season. I'm just saying that they lack the cap flexibility to keep up with their rapidly improving (and cap rich) divisional rivals.




[*]There are dozens of articles that characterize Clark as being in a contract year, but I can't find confirmation of this in any of the usual sources. Is he heading into a voidable year?

 

[Metaphors]

IMO, it is rather difficult to improve a team during the season with street free agents.

I understand your point that having 10+ million in cap space after the trade deadline is of limited help in improving the team. I'm just not sure what to make of that. Are you saying that the Colts don't seem to have cap space when it can actually do them some good in acquiring free agents...but seem to free up quite a bit as the season goes on? Meaning can be used for contract tweaking but not talent upgrades?

Like I said, the numbers seem to indicate a solid salary cap situation but I get the feeling that there is more to it than that.

 

[solman]

The Colts were indeed heading for CAP Hell, but Polian addressed the problem this past off season. He did relieve the coming CAP hell, as Miquel will attest.

To do it, he took a long-odds, calculated gamble and is predictably losing that bet.

Did he escape cap hell by taking a risky gamble?

Or did cap hell force him to take a risky gamble?

It depends on your definition of cap hell (is it when you have to cut players, or when you have to make bad choices?), but I vote for option #2. The Colts' salary cap situation forced Polian to make decisions that he knew perfectly well could have catastrophic consequences.

A very good player Tarik Glenn retired. Marvin [...] Both have big DEAD CAP money due, and they will be payed whether they play or not.

Minor question/quibble: I thought that Tarik agreed to repay his remaining signing bonus, and that except for a $2.5M charge this year, they were off the hook. Is this incorrect?

 

[solman]

Indy has no depth? Who has replaced all those guys for the past 7 years?
How are the Colts the 2nd youngest team besides GB? How does Harper, Doss, and David get replaced? What about Peterson, Washington and Thornton? They haven't missed a beat.

Last night they missed so many beats, they were admitted to the emergency room at San Diego General.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

Indy has no depth? Who has replaced all those guys for the past 7 years?
How are the Colts the 2nd youngest team besides GB? How does Harper, Doss, and David get replaced? What about Peterson, Washington and Thornton? They haven't missed a beat.

They replaced them with players they drafted, and worked in the system for a year or two. Say what you will about Polian, he knows talent, and Dungy coaches them up well. This works great, until you have a rash of injuries. The Colts have had an amazing run of bad injuries, and the lack of proven talent is now showing. Special teams are horrid, and thats losing them games.

 

[He Ban Me]

Hey Workhorse one of the ESPN shows, first take I believe, was saying that the word is Harrison is done. They made it sound like for at least the season if not his career. It's the first I've heard of it, have you heard anything like this? Or just idle gossip, aka espn standard operating procedure.

Colts brass is taking the absolute opposite stance. Say he is working in to practice more and more, and when he can practice at full speed with no ill effects, then he will play. Do I believe it? Hard to say. The guy isn't wearing a brace, not on crutches, he walks, jogs, runs. I could understand the Colts keeping him around for a psychological edge. This might help in the short term, but IF they know he won't be back, they'd be wise to IR him and fill the spot. Sanders was out 8 weeks last year, and folks were beginning to wonder. The very fact that they have NOT placed him on IR suggests to me he will return. My guess is for the Jax game after T-Day.

 

[He Ban Me]

They replaced them with players they drafted, and worked in the system for a year or two. Say what you will about Polian, he knows talent, and Dungy coaches them up well. This works great, until you have a rash of injuries. The Colts have had an amazing run of bad injuries, and the lack of proven talent is now showing. Special teams are horrid, and thats losing them games. Special teams ARE horrid, but they were last year as well. Could have overcome them two weeks ago, and obviously were very close last night. This is not to say it isn't a concern. And it does have to do with depth somewhat, in that the guys on ST's at the beginning of the year are now in the lineup, further depleting ST's players. Roy Hall (IR), Hagler, Brock, Giordanno all have contributed on ST's, but couldn't last night. IMO, the pieces are there, the execution is not. Russ should be worried

characters

 

[Metaphors]

Colts brass is taking the absolute opposite stance.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return to the Jags game.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 8.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 9.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 10.

There is a 50-50 chance Harrison will return in week 11.​

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I agree. The Colts' thinking, historically, seems to have centered first around the Triplets, in imitation of Dallas' formula. Then it moved to quadruplets, because hey if three is good, four is better... then a few others, and most recently Freeney, got their big paydays. But the difference in the historical NE and Indy approaches has resulted in better depth in NE, and more superstar talent in Indy.

They draft exceedingly well, but even for a great team at drafting, there will be holes you need to shore up with the "rainy day fund." Difficulty in doing this with additional FA talent, is the downside of their philosophy. The upside is, when you can develop talent at home, you get huge cap benefits. Couple that with the "keepers" you give massive contracts to, and you can compete.

But let's think for a moment about the Pats' vaunted approach - a big middle class, a very, very few well-paid "stars". This offseason, that standard Pats approach has taken a big hit. It has been developing in this direction for a while. First it was one guy every season way off the main sequence (Milloy, then Law, then Brady). Then it was two, Brady and Seymour. Then Colvin, with a few others creeping into that category...

Now we have a whole stable of new talent either due to cost a pretty penny next year, or very likely to.

I think we mistook the Pats' youth in 01 for a philosophy. Our own starters are now veterans, and that means more expensive (even the bargains lilke Welker).

That said, this offseason we got away with murder. Everybody in the receiving corps signed with a "prove-it" year, except Welker, who was signed to the long haul at modest prices.

And yet, even with the Indy "one and a half strings" approach highlighted by that team's current woes, our own partisans scream there will be money for everybody! Money for all! Etc.

And of course, our own grizzled veteran posters explain with a mix of patience and irritation who we can restructure, etc.

Long story short: Our depth takes a hit (a la Indy,) our D takes a (comparative) hit, our O Line takes a (comparative) hit, or we push costs into the future, if our WR corps is going to be star-studded.

Again, we might be looking at a new philosophy, or we might be looking at the results of riches falling into our laps, forcing a new philosophy.

But how is that much different from the Manning/James/Harrison/Wayne combo falling into your lap? (even with Edge gone, and a rookie (read, cheap replacement) filling the role, they are thin in the case of injury.)

The Indy plan worked once; it seems less robust for a multiple season run like NE has had in the past. I am not sure for the future, though, if we are not converging on the same model as Indy, given the possible impacts on our un-Indy features (depth, D,) caused by our more Indyesque recent developments (premiere wideouts.)

Eh well. If we're going that way anyway, at least we have a QB who doesn't throw 6 picks when he only has one pro-bowl wideout.

PFnV