Colts Cap Mismanagement in Focus

[solman]

Todays injuries to four starters (replaced with three rookies and a third stringer) illustrate the dangers of Indy's cap approach.

New England's Superbowl teams were notable for their depth; depth which was tested by numerous (often simultaneous) injuries to key starters.

Indy, having committed vast amounts of cap space to a small number of players, is unable to afford the kind of depth that New England has.

If they pull off the upset, I'll give the credit to Dungy, not Polian who is responsible for their current situation (talent selection skills notwithstanding).


BTW, don't try to tell me that their lack of depth isn't a result of the salary cap. All of their current cap space is attributable to Freeney's massively back loaded contract, and Tarik Glenn's retirement. (I'll bet they wish they had him right now.) Without those moves and Peyton's additional back loading, they would have negative cap space right now.



EDIT: Even if the Colts don't win this game, Dungy has done a genius job with that team. I am beyond impressed.

 

[solman]

Two injury filled games later, It looks like the lack of depth caused by Polian's cap management may have sunk their 2007 season.

Certainly they need numerous players to return to active duty if they want to be a contender.

 

[patriot lifer]

it's like a good investment portfolio, with your money spread out and diversified, there is low risk. Polian never got the memo.

 

[QuiGon]

EDIT: Even if the Colts don't win this game, Dungy has done a genius job with that team. I am beyond impressed.

I have to give credit where credit is due: Indy's defense has been incredibly impessive as of late. Despite Manning's half dozen INT's, they only surrendered 10 points on D.

 

[Stratos]

I have to give credit where credit is due: Indy's defense has been incredibly impessive as of late. Despite Manning's half dozen INT's, they only surrendered 10 points on D.

EDIT: Stratos, enough already. This is a football board, not a playground.


By Larry Weisman, USA TODAY
New England Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour earned the most money during the 2006 season of any NFL player, but his reign at the top will be short.
Seymour, who signed a contract extension that included about $24 million in bonuses, socked away nearly $24.7 million for the past year's work, according to USA TODAY's annual survey of player compensation. But for 2007 he has a base salary of $600,000 and will drop down the list after his moonshot payday.

Same goes for Peyton Manning. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback signed a contract worth nearly $100 million in 2004 and it included a record $34.5 million signing bonus. But as the years go by and other players come to the head of the line for deals, he recedes a bit on the gross-dollars list. Manning's $10M take ranked him 31st, though his average per year value is $14 million.

 

[patchick]

it's like a good investment portfolio, with your money spread out and diversified, there is low risk. Polian never got the memo.

Oh, he got the memo all right! He just made a choice -- swinging for the fences. If injuries hit he's screwed, but if not he has a good shot at the Superbowl. This year the risk side of "high-risk, high-reward investing" came through, so be it. It's a perfectly rational strategy, and it's won him a ton of games and a Lombardi.

 

[patriot lifer]

You guys need to look at **** Seymour Butts' cap hit.


By Larry Weisman, USA TODAY
New England Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour earned the most money during the 2006 season of any NFL player, but his reign at the top will be short.
Seymour, who signed a contract extension that included about $24 million in bonuses, socked away nearly $24.7 million for the past year's work, according to USA TODAY's annual survey of player compensation. But for 2007 he has a base salary of $600,000 and will drop down the list after his moonshot payday.

Same goes for Peyton Manning. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback signed a contract worth nearly $100 million in 2004 and it included a record $34.5 million signing bonus. But as the years go by and other players come to the head of the line for deals, he recedes a bit on the gross-dollars list. Manning's $10M take ranked him 31st, though his average per year value is $14 million.


I know you are not about facts, so this will fall on deaf ears....

you need a substantial amount more info to prove anything. The Colts have a bunch of filler players, and then a bunch of players that eat up the cap. Everyone who knows football is aware of what they do. It's a crapshoot, because if the wrong players get hurt, then the team is crippled. Every fan of the game knows the Colts practice this. It's a fact just as the sky is blue. It's like trying to disprove gravity.

Your best bet for arguing in favor of what they do is to say that certain players can be paid more because of the chemistry and synergy valued in them. ie harrison and manning "share the same brain"

 

[Metaphors]

Oh, he got the memo all right! He just made a choice -- swinging for the fences. If injuries hit he's screwed, but if not he has a good shot at the Superbowl. This year the risk side of "high-risk, high-reward investing" came through, so be it. It's a perfectly rational strategy, and it's won him a ton of games and a Lombardi.

Right on. There is more than one way to win in the NFL. All have positives and negatives. The key is to pick a strategy and stick with it. That is why the Colts, Pats and Steelers win and will continue to win. Changing with the wind is why the rest of the league can't seem to keep up.

 

[workhorse]

Todays injuries to four starters (replaced with three rookies and a third stringer) illustrate the dangers of Indy's cap approach.

New England's Superbowl teams were notable for their depth; depth which was tested by numerous (often simultaneous) injuries to key starters.

Indy, having committed vast amounts of cap space to a small number of players, is unable to afford the kind of depth that New England has.

If they pull off the upset, I'll give the credit to Dungy, not Polian who is responsible for their current situation (talent selection skills notwithstanding).


BTW, don't try to tell me that their lack of depth isn't a result of the salary cap. All of their current cap space is attributable to Freeney's massively back loaded contract, and Tarik Glenn's retirement. (I'll bet they wish they had him right now.) Without those moves and Peyton's additional back loading, they would have negative cap space right now.



EDIT: Even if the Colts don't win this game, Dungy has done a genius job with that team. I am beyond impressed.

I agree.

::10 characters::

 

[patriot lifer]

Oh, he got the memo all right! He just made a choice -- swinging for the fences. If injuries hit he's screwed, but if not he has a good shot at the Superbowl. This year the risk side of "high-risk, high-reward investing" came through, so be it. It's a perfectly rational strategy, and it's won him a ton of games and a Lombardi.

maybe that's the case, but I [personally] don't buy into there being higher potential and higher rewards if teams spread out their money versus spend it on select players. The investments analogy isn't perfect because if money was invested in a single stock, the stock could go from $90 to $700 (I think Google did that??). Every team spends about the same amount of money (hopefully). It's just about getting value. I prefer that paradigm. Once a player gets a big contract, he has to live up to that contract and that's the risk (it's like buying Google at $700, there's a high standard to meet). Players rarely exceed expectations (ie Bulger).
Financing select players works if they are expected to meet expectations. A player like Marvin Harrison has proven that Polian did a good job in evaluating him. On the flip side, there's that risk of injury. And that is where I feel Polian failed. I don't buy into the high risk and high reward philosophy. I only believe in evaluating value and maintaining diversity.

 

[workhorse]

A player like Marvin Harrison has proven that Polian did a good job in evaluating him. On the flip side, there's that risk of injury. And that is where I feel Polian failed. I don't buy into the high risk and high reward philosophy. I only believe in evaluating value and maintaining diversity.

You could say that for every player. Harrison got rolled in a freak way. Are you saying that the Patriots should not have sunk all the money in Brady that they did? QBs get hurt all the time.

 

[everlong]

Hey Workhorse one of the ESPN shows, first take I believe, was saying that the word is Harrison is done. They made it sound like for at least the season if not his career. It's the first I've heard of it, have you heard anything like this? Or just idle gossip, aka espn standard operating procedure.

 

[patchick]

maybe that's the case, but I [personally] don't buy into there being higher potential and higher rewards if teams spread out their money versus spend it on select players. The investments analogy isn't perfect because if money was invested in a single stock, the stock could go from $90 to $700 (I think Google did that??). Every team spends about the same amount of money (hopefully). It's just about getting value. I prefer that paradigm. Once a player gets a big contract, he has to live up to that contract and that's the risk (it's like buying Google at $700, there's a high standard to meet). Players rarely exceed expectations (ie Bulger).
Financing select players works if they are expected to meet expectations. A player like Marvin Harrison has proven that Polian did a good job in evaluating him. On the flip side, there's that risk of injury. And that is where I feel Polian failed. I don't buy into the high risk and high reward philosophy. I only believe in evaluating value and maintaining diversity.

Just to clarify...I think you mean the opposite of your first sentence? That you do believe in diversifying your portfolio?

I'd opt for the Pats' approach too, but that doesn't mean it's the only good way. Also, the Patriots' haven't generally let their top players walk. They've shelled out plenty for Brady, Seymour, Warren and this year Samuel. It was a lot easier to emphasize depth over stars when you didn't have a lot of stars coming up for FA! Wilfork and Mankins will be the next big tests.

The investing analogy is interesting too. The closest thing to trying to hit an IPO that shoots skyward is probably relying on a ton of rookies, which Polian has also done to generally good results.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Although I am a major fan of the Belioli cap and team design system. Polian's peckerheads have also done very well. They continue to field a top, competitive team at the elite levels year after year. Some seasons your choices don't pan out, this year for the Colts and the 2006 WR corps decisions by Belioli. BB learns from his mistakes. With a freakin' vengance, he does.

 

[patchick]

Although I am a major fan of the Belioli cap and team design system. Polian's peckerheads have also done very well. They continue to field a top, competitive team at the elite levels year after year. Some seasons your choices don't pan out, this year for the Colts and the 2006 WR corps decisions by Belioli. BB learns from his mistakes. With a freakin' vengance, he does.

Amen and amen.

 

[Poker]

The investment portfolio, risk/reward discussion to assess Polian vs. the Pats is fascinating.

Here is another aspect of it--I saw this discussed on Colts.com but it was dismissed:

Last offseason, Randy Moss was the most undervalued stock on the market. He went for way below his market value. Belioli took the risk, and maged their risk. Interestingly, Moss wasn't a "stock" that anyone could buy on the open market, since he had a no-trade clause. RM only wanted to go to a team that had a great chance to win, and a top QB to throw to him. Short list: Pats, Packers, AND, why not the Colts? How big would it be for the Colts right now if they had Moss and NE didn't!!

This is looking more and more like we bought at stock at $50 and it went to $700, much like the Google example or a few others like that.

If you were Polian, you had to look past the surface analysis that they already had a #1, #2, Clark, etc. Maybe figure out a way to get Moss and not draft Gonzales #1 and cut someone else.

Polian should not be getting a free pass on this, IMO. His failure to "invest" may cost the Colts 2-3 more Lombardis at the hands of his #1 competitor!

 

[patriot lifer]

You could say that for every player. Harrison got rolled in a freak way. Are you saying that the Patriots should not have sunk all the money in Brady that they did? QBs get hurt all the time.

Qb's are special and are always in demand (they got Brady for a good deal anyways). As for Harrison's injury, that's how just about every injury occurs--they are "freak" injuries. It's a matter of time before just about every player gets hurt, so long as they play long enough.

 

[solman]

Although I am a major fan of the Belioli cap and team design system. Polian's peckerheads have also done very well. They continue to field a top, competitive team at the elite levels year after year. Some seasons your choices don't pan out, this year for the Colts and the 2006 WR corps decisions by Belioli. BB learns from his mistakes. With a freakin' vengance, he does.

The Colts have been taking this insanely risky approach since the beginning of their run. They have had ridiculous luck over that period of time. They have given their top players huge back loaded contracts which are marginally inefficient if everything goes right, and catastrophic if everything goes wrong.

If Freeney doesn't recover, neither do the Colts. Even if he does recover, the Colts lack the cap space or the draft picks to add their missing depth, or grow through free agency like the Titans and Jaguars will.

I credit Dungy with coaching up his replacements this season. But there comes a point when a well coached team simply doesn't have enough talent to win a Superbowl. Depending on who is and is not available for the playoffs, the Colts may have reached that point.

 

[Poker]

Solman,

Yes, interesting point and I agree. It is easier to see the strategy and the risk now that they are having a bad run of luck, but in hindsight they ahve been incredibly lucky over the years on the health front.

The Colts have been taking this insanely risky approach since the beginning of their run. They have had ridiculous luck over that period of time. They have given their top players huge back loaded contracts which are marginally inefficient if everything goes right, and catastrophic if everything goes wrong.

If Freeney doesn't recover, neither do the Colts. Even if he does recover, the Colts lack the cap space or the draft picks to add their missing depth, or grow through free agency like the Titans and Jaguars will.

I credit Dungy with coaching up his replacements this season. But there comes a point when a well coached team simply doesn't have enough talent to win a Superbowl. Depending on who is and is not available for the playoffs, the Colts may have reached that point.

 

[Miguel]

Even if he does recover, the Colts lack the cap space

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=62553&highlight=adamjt13

Please explain how a team that was under the 2007 cap by $14 million late September AND under the 2008 cap by $11 million will lack cap space to improve their team.