7. I think I think the most interesting 2008 draft story -- and I touched on this on HBO the other day -- will be what the Patriots do with the unexpected riches they'll have because the 49ers are so bad this year. To refresh: Last April, the Patriots traded the 28th pick in the draft to San Francisco for the 49ers' fourth-round pick this year and their first-round pick next year. New England traded the fourth-rounder to Oakland for Randy Moss. Now the Patriots will have a much higher first-round pick than anyone thought when the 2007 season started and the 49ers looked like a playoff contender. If the season ended today, San Francisco would hold the fifth pick in the 2008 draft.
On the draft trade chart that all teams use to calculate draft value, the sixth overall pick is worth 1,600 points. The 32nd overall pick is worth 590, while the 16th overall pick is worth 1,000. In essence, the Patriots, by virtue of the 49ers' crappy season, are likely to have exactly the same value they thought they'd have entering the season, and before Roger Goodell took away their first-round pick over Spygate -- the value of a mid- and late-round pick. I should note that because we haven't seen the frenzy to acquire the top few picks in recent that we've seen in the past, the value board for the top 10 picks should probably be scaled down.
In any case, there will be certainly be significantly more value for the sixth pick than there would have been for the 18th or 20th pick, obviously. New England's history is free-wheeling on draft day, and they hate the value of high first-rounders, preferring to pick players later for less money. And they've been right.
Laurence Maroney was the 21st pick in 2006. His cap numbers the next three years: $1.443 million, $1.634 million, $1.774 million. Brandon Meriweather was the 24th pick this year. His cap numbers over the next three years: $1.140 million, $1.406 million, $1.647 million.
In any case, the draft outlook is looking much brighter for the Patriots than it looked the day Goodell whacked Belichick. The 28th pick in the draft for the best receiver in football right now and a top 10 pick. Not bad.
Postscript: With the 28th pick this year, San Francisco took Central Michigan tackle Joe Staley, who has been turnstiled by a couple of pass-rushers, including Michael Strahan, this year. Oakland, with the 110th pick, chose University of Cincinnati safety John Bowie, who has been inactive for every Raiders game.