Worth of #5 Pick/Draft Pick Value Chart

[Lamanai]

Does anyone have access to past trades of very high draft picks. I wondered what kind of package a team could expect for say, a #5 pick. I mean based strictly on actual past trades. I know about the 'Draft Pick Value Charts', but there are too many questions about how it is put together. Here is one popular chart:

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html


1. 3,000
2. 2,600
3. 2,200
4. 1,800
5. 1,700..???

I know that the relative value of players changes from year to year, but in this chart, why is the difference in value between the top picks about 400 points for picks 1 through 4, but only 100 points between 4 and 5? I wouldn't expect there to be a direct linear relationship, but why does it change so abruptly after pick 4? Just wondering...

 

[patchick]

I think you kind of have to throw the chart out for the very top picks. It's all about the specific names at that point. The year that the Giants were determined to get li'l Manning at all costs, the #1 was worth the 3000-pt trade valuation. The year that the 49ers had to swallow hard and shell out for Alex Smith, not even close.

This year there's no one QB everybody is drooling over, which makes the #1 a questionable value proposition. The big question mark is McFadden, a highly coveted player who shouldn't go #1 or #2 if the Dolphins and Rams stick in those spots. So a #3-4 pick might end up being the hot trading commodity.

Plus for teams that already have good talent they want to keep, picks in the 5-10 range may actually appeal more. (As I'm prone to swearing about, the #1 overall gets 4 times as much money as the #10 pick.) In the Pats case, if they end up with a super-high pick they'd likely trade down even if the value chart said they were getting taken to the cleaners.

 

[borg]

My hope for the SF pick, assuming that it is in the 4 or 5 range, is that BB trades down to the 9 or 10 spot and gains a 2nd rounder at 41 or 42. This second rounder will lesson the pain of the Goodell FJob. The charts say that the Pats may lose a couple hundred points with this trade and maybe BB can do better, but the salary savings would be significant.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Patchick hit it correctly. The key will be is whether some team wants a qb. Hopefully, someone falls in love with M.Ryan. More specifically, a team picking 10-15. We can trade down. Get their 1 and 3 this year. Plus, their 1 next year.
Maybe, Baltimore or Carolina?

1 Miami - G. Dorsey
2 St. L - J. Long
3 NYJ - C. Long
4 NE TO ??
5 Oak - D.McFadden

 

[patchick]

Patchick hit it correctly. The key will be is whether some team wants a qb. Hopefully, someone falls in love with M.Ryan. More specifically, a team picking 10-15. We can trade down. Get their 1 and 3 this year. Plus, their 1 next year.
Maybe, Baltimore or Carolina?

1 Miami - G. Dorsey
2 St. L - J. Long
3 NYJ - C. Long
4 NE TO ??
5 Oak - D.McFadden

OK...

OK, I see just 4 teams in desperate need of a young QB:

Atlanta
Minnesota
Chicago
Baltimore

You could argue for Green Bay too, or even San Diego, but not for these purposes

So let's say 2 of the 4 pick up a FA QB to take the heat off. (I'm watching Cleveland, which has its own version of the Brees-Rivers conundrum looming.) That leaves just 2 teams likely to take a QB in the top 20 picks. At this point, I can't see a scramble to trade up to the top 5 for that position.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I can see a scenario where a team will trade up. Let's say we pick 5th. Minny is sitting at 7th or 8th. Atlanta about 10th. You know Minny wants a qb and Petrino probably wants Brohm. Carolina, Baltimore and Chicago might decide M.Ryan is their guy. And, they want to trade up. McFadden is another player teams might trade up to get. I think a team like Houston might deal up for DMAC. They have a qb(Schaub), wr(A.Johnson) and have invested in their defense. Might look at McFadden as missing piece to that offense. I don't see a doom/gloom scenario with having a top 5 pick. We get an outstanding player or multiple picks.

 

[patchick]

I can see a scenario where a team will trade up. Let's say we pick 5th. Minny is sitting at 7th or 8th. Atlanta about 10th. You know Minny wants a qb and Petrino probably wants Brohm. Carolina, Baltimore and Chicago might decide M.Ryan is their guy. And, they want to trade up. McFadden is another player teams might trade up to get. I think a team like Houston might deal up for DMAC. They have a qb(Schaub), wr(A.Johnson) and have invested in their defense. Might look at McFadden as missing piece to that offense. I don't see a doom/gloom scenario with having a top 5 pick. We get an outstanding player or multiple picks.

Oh, I totally agree! I think there should be plenty of opportunity to trade down as long as they don't ask for the moon. I was just looking at the QBs in particular, since that's the most likely position to create a bidding war.

Interesting point on Brohm, though. If Petrino is extra-fixated on getting his own boy, that's a great scenario for a trade up.

 

[rookBoston]

I dont think QB is going to inspire any bidding wars, this year. Reason is that there are a ton of legit prospects coming out this year:

Ryan, Brohm, Woodson, Henne, Brennan, Booty... even Ainge. They all look the part. Any team with a need at QB can sit and wait, and choose from a bunch of good looking youngsters. Bidding war would only start after two or three teams fall in love with exactly one guy... and it has to be the same guy... and they have to know that the other teams want him too. I dont see it.

And especially after seeing quality QBs drop in the draft each of the last many years-- Rothlesberger, Rogers, Leinart, Quinn-- the myth that you cant pass up a franchise QB in the first round if you have a shot at him, is dead dead dead. Remember San Diego passed on Mike Vick at #1, and drafted Tomlinson. And how good does Jamarcus Russel look in an Oakland uni, right now?

 

[BelichickFan]

I dont think QB is going to inspire any bidding wars, this year. Reason is that there are a ton of legit prospects coming out this year:

Ryan, Brohm, Woodson, Henne, Brennan, Booty... even Ainge.

There's also going to be some veterans like Pennington, maybe McNabb, maybe one of the Cleveland QB, maybe McNair (though he looks done), etc. Of all things, there almost seems like there could be a slight glut of QB this year.

 

[mcbee]

Raghib Ismael, remembe him? Or Russell Maryland?

The pats had the first pick in the draft and traded it down and they picked up very little.

With the slotting of rookie salaries if you can't find a superstar, it's almost worth it to pay to drop down.

 

[dryheat44]

And especially after seeing quality QBs drop in the draft each of the last many years-- Rothlesberger, Rogers, Leinart, Quinn-- the myth that you cant pass up a franchise QB in the first round if you have a shot at him, is dead dead dead.

Other than Rothliesberger, do we really know if any of those guys are quality QBs?

While not all highly drafted QBs are franchise quarterbacks, other than Brady and Favre, all franchise quarterbacks were high picks. In other words, while there are many, many, big misses (Ryan Leaf, Mike Vick, David Carr, soon Vince Young and Alex Smith will be in this category), there are very, very few studs found late. I think a franchise looking for a stud QB still has to use a very high pick. Just look at the evidence:

Manning - First overall
Palmer - First overall
Elway - First overall
Aikman - First overall
McNabb - Second overall
McNair - Third overall
Roethlisberger - Eleventh overall
Kelly - Fourteenth overall
Marino - #27 overall (rampant drug use rumors)
Brees - #32 overall (Dude's about 5'9")
Favre - #33 overall (level of competition concerns)
Montana - Third rounder
Brady - Sixth rounder

Bulger & Hasselbeck are also sixth rounders. So is Derek Anderson. Co-incidental that so many good QBs are all from the sixth round, but I don't know whether they're "franchise quarterbacks".

 

[ayjackson]

I agree with rookB. I think that there's not much to chose between the top QBs available and teams won't overpay to get one over the other. I think the same can be said for OT - a team drafting in the 8-12 range will be happy with any of the top two or three tackles.

I really think the trade up is for McFadden. Teams are seeing what AD is doing for the Vikings and see McFadden in the same light.

After seeing SF on MNF, I think we might end up with the #2 overall pick at 3-13. Of course, the Fins will go winless, but the Jets and Rams should pick up a couple of wins down the stretch.

I'd trade #2 for #8 and #40, if that's all that was up for offer and I'd take Laurenaitis.

There's a chance a team could move for Dorsey as well, but only if the price was low.

 

[sebman2112]

I agree with rookB. I think that there's not much to chose between the top QBs available and teams won't overpay to get one over the other. I think the same can be said for OT - a team drafting in the 8-12 range will be happy with any of the top two or three tackles.

I really think the trade up is for McFadden. Teams are seeing what AD is doing for the Vikings and see McFadden in the same light.

After seeing SF on MNF, I think we might end up with the #2 overall pick at 3-13. Of course, the Fins will go winless, but the Jets and Rams should pick up a couple of wins down the stretch.

I'd trade #2 for #8 and #40, if that's all that was up for offer and I'd take Laurenaitis.

There's a chance a team could move for Dorsey as well, but only if the price was low.

Hopefully McFadden is on the board when NE picks, so Pioli could see if Jerry Jones still wants his boy from Arkansas. It's already known that he's absolutely in love with DMAC. I'd take their two first rounders (both likely coming somewhere in the 20's), and anything else I could get from them. Just saving your salary cap from that huge contract would be worth it, and NE's found themselves some pretty good players in the later picks of the first round.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If McFadden does not entice Jerry Jones to part with his 2 first round picks, do you think Jake Long would?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Hopefully McFadden is on the board when NE picks, so Pioli could see if Jerry Jones still wants his boy from Arkansas. It's already known that he's absolutely in love with DMAC. I'd take their two first rounders (both likely coming somewhere in the 20's), and anything else I could get from them. Just saving your salary cap from that huge contract would be worth it, and NE's found themselves some pretty good players in the later picks of the first round.

If I'm dealing with Dallas I"m asking for Demarcus Ware. The talents available in the low 20's don't seem to equal the value of the #4 overall pick and passing up on potential franchise guys like McFadden or Long.

 

[rookBoston]

If I'm dealing with Dallas I"m asking for Demarcus Ware. The talents available in the low 20's don't seem to equal the value of the #4 overall pick and passing up on potential franchise guys like McFadden or Long.

I would take the trade down. Two late rounders could be Laurinitis and Jenkins, and that gives us solid starters at CB and LB for at least five years.

But there will have to be some appeal that draws teams up the board. The Cowboys are already set at RB, why would they mortgage their future for a player at a position they dont need? That's why Jerry Jones can be so open about his fondness for McFadden-- there's no risk at misinterpretation.

But, for fantasy sake, how about this: the Cowboys two first rounders plus Marion Barber to the Pats. Now, that sounds sexy. I'll even throw in, say, our third rounder if the Cowboys feel they're giving up too much. Works for us, shoring up at RB, and giving us two prime players for the D. Plus it clears the roster space the Boys would need to give McFadden the touches he needs. Now that's a dream worth dreaming.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

If I'm dealing with Dallas I"m asking for Demarcus Ware. The talents available in the low 20's don't seem to equal the value of the #4 overall pick and passing up on potential franchise guys like McFadden or Long.

Yes! You can have McFadden but we get Ware. The only way to convince a team to trade up with us may just be to draft the player (McFadden or QB) taking him off the board then work out a trade later. Teams want marketable guys and McFadden, Ryan, Woodson and maybe even Howie's kid are marketable. This is like 2004 when there were several top QB prospects.

BTW, did anyone watch the OSU v. Illinois game? If you did you would have noticed Laurinaitis inability to shed blocks. They ran the football right at him. He lost the game. He's been playing football his whole life and he can't shed blocks. If he becomes a New England Patriot he won't contribute immediately.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

But, for fantasy sake, how about this: the Cowboys two first rounders plus Marion Barber to the Pats. Now, that sounds sexy. I'll even throw in, say, our third rounder if the Cowboys feel they're giving up too much. Works for us, shoring up at RB, and giving us two prime players for the D. Plus it clears the roster space the Boys would need to give McFadden the touches he needs. Now that's a dream worth dreaming.

I swear I thought about this as well. The Pats get the Minny boys and can still draft LBs, CBs, and even TE and Oline. I think JJ is too level headed to gamble like that. Maybe 1 of the 2 firsts a 3rd and Marion Barber. When does Barber's contract expire?