offseason/draft thoughts

[sebman2112]

The only part of NE's defense that is somewhat old and lacking solid depth is the LB corp. The Patriots D-line is entirely young, and loaded with depth. The secondary has a decent amount of depth (right now), and Rodney's really the only old guy back there. If Samuel leaves (and he will) that will hurt the depth in the secondary, but NE will promote from within, and they'll draft two DB's in the draft. I think Kenny Phillips should be one of those DB's.

When it comes to the LB's Thomas and Colvin just turned 30 a few months ago, and they aren't playing old. Vrabel is 32, but he's playing pretty damn good right now (8.5 sacks tied for 3rd in the NFL, and only .5 from the overall sack lead). You don't need replacement for any of those three, right now. if anything NE should extend Colvin to lower his cap hit. Bruschi despite being younger than Seau actually looks older on the field. NE needs a replacement for him, and they could use a young backup LB, who will eventually take over down the road. Here I'm advocating the signing of Karlos Dansby to take over in the middle, and drafting Rey Maualuga as your LB of the future. If Not Maualuga, than I really like Jonathan Goff.

This would give NE a 2008 LB corps of: Colvin, Thomas, Dansby, Vrabel, Maualuga or Goff, Woods, Lua, Alexander, and potentially either Bruschi or Seau coming back for one last year.

I think if NE were to end up with a top 5 pick, they'd trade it. NE did draft Richard Seymour 6th overall, but rookie contracts in the top 10 have made an extreme jump since then, and NE doesn't like to pay their rookies an extreme amount. I'd try and trade with the Cowboys, or someone with a mid-first & mid-second, who really wants the player sitting at your pick (could be McFadden). NE could likely get one of Phillips or Maualuga with the mid-first, and potentially Goff, or someone else I've been looking at , with the mid-second.

NE has a chance to get a lot of good players in the 2008 draft, and that will be key to resigning Moss, while keeping Stallworth (who's bonus will be converted).

Few Notes: James Laurinaitis has said he's going to stay in school, and honestly I don't think he fits NE's defense any better than Maualuga.

After the combine I'll have a pretty solid idea of what NE should do, and I'll have my players pretty much set. In 2006 I had Maroney, and Jackson, 2005: Hobbs, in 2007 I had Meriweather, and had Oscar Lua in a few mocks. Hopefully I'll be able to keep my streak going.

 

[patchick]

Good stuff, sebman! I'll intersperse comments....

The only part of NE's defense that is somewhat old and lacking solid depth is the LB corp. The Patriots D-line is entirely young, and loaded with depth. The secondary has a decent amount of depth (right now), and Rodney's really the only old guy back there. If Samuel leaves (and he will) that will hurt the depth in the secondary, but NE will promote from within, and they'll draft two DB's in the draft. I think Kenny Phillips should be one of those DB's.

I'm getting more and more Phillips vibes too. A Sean Taylor type in the backfield should make the LBs look a little younger as well!

When it comes to the LB's Thomas and Colvin just turned 30 a few months ago, and they aren't playing old. Vrabel is 32, but he's playing pretty damn good right now (8.5 sacks tied for 3rd in the NFL, and only .5 from the overall sack lead). You don't need replacement for any of those three, right now. if anything NE should extend Colvin to lower his cap hit. Bruschi despite being younger than Seau actually looks older on the field. NE needs a replacement for him, and they could use a young backup LB, who will eventually take over down the road. Here I'm advocating the signing of Karlos Dansby to take over in the middle, and drafting Rey Maualuga as your LB of the future. If Not Maualuga, than I really like Jonathan Goff.

Didn't Maualuga recently say he's staying in school? He's a beast, certainly. But how 'bout we just take both of the Nevada LBs and see what sticks?

This would give NE a 2008 LB corps of: Colvin, Thomas, Dansby, Vrabel, Maualuga or Goff, Woods, Lua, Alexander, and potentially either Bruschi or Seau coming back for one last year.

I think if NE were to end up with a top 5 pick, they'd trade it. NE did draft Richard Seymour 6th overall, but rookie contracts in the top 10 have made an extreme jump since then, and NE doesn't like to pay their rookies an extreme amount.

Also, look at the other talent on the 2000 squad vs. today! It's a totally different situation. This time around there are more tradeoffs to be considered, other players we'd like to extend.

I'd try and trade with the Cowboys, or someone with a mid-first & mid-second, who really wants the player sitting at your pick (could be McFadden). NE could likely get one of Phillips or Maualuga with the mid-first, and potentially Goff, or someone else I've been looking at , with the mid-second.

NE has a chance to get a lot of good players in the 2008 draft, and that will be key to resigning Moss, while keeping Stallworth (who's bonus will be converted).

Few Notes: James Laurinaitis has said he's going to stay in school, and honestly I don't think he fits NE's defense any better than Maualuga.

After the combine I'll have a pretty solid idea of what NE should do, and I'll have my players pretty much set. In 2006 I had Maroney, and Jackson, 2005: Hobbs, in 2007 I had Meriweather, and had Oscar Lua in a few mocks. Hopefully I'll be able to keep my streak going.

 

[PonyExpress]

Sebman,
What's your take on Meriweather at this point? The fact he hasnt played with the regular D is starting to worry me.

 

[sebman2112]

Sebman,
What's your take on Meriweather at this point? The fact he hasnt played with the regular D is starting to worry me.

I'm not happy about it, but I'm not worried quite yet either. I generally like to give guys a year or two in the system before I really pass judgement on them. I've had questions concerning Brandon's health for a while, so McShay's claims of Brandon having an injury could very well be true. Also, when he's been on the field lately it seems he's been thinking a lot, instead of just playing. That probably has a lot to do with his learning the Patriots system, and hopefully after he's been in the system a little longer, he'll have it down, and won't have to think so much.

I'll say the comparison I've seen a few posters make (Brandon to T-Buck) isn't even close. Meriweather wasn't simply a hard hitter who roamed a lot in college, he was solid in coverage, rarely bit on play fakes, and wrapped guys up, too. So, I believe he'll eventually show the traits I liked so much when he was coming out. He's won some black jerseys in practice, which would at least seem to indicate BB likes what Brandon's doing there, he now just needs to transfer it to sundays.

BB also seemed to like Brandon's effort in training camp, as he was usually the first rookie to the next drill, and BB on more than one instance would say "Brandon's here, where are all the other rookies". So, that also gives me hope that Brandon will eventually develope.

 

[patchick]

He's won some black jerseys in practice, which would at least seem to indicate BB likes what Brandon's doing there, he now just needs to transfer it to sundays.

I didn't know that...definitely the most encouraging thing I've heard so far.

 

[cstjohn17]

The only part of NE's defense that is somewhat old and lacking solid depth is the LB corp. The Patriots D-line is entirely young, and loaded with depth. The secondary has a decent amount of depth (right now), and Rodney's really the only old guy back there. If Samuel leaves (and he will) that will hurt the depth in the secondary, but NE will promote from within, and they'll draft two DB's in the draft. I think Kenny Phillips should be one of those DB's.

Good luck with predicting those mocks, very painful, very very painful.

I broke down my early thoughts on the veteran LBS are here

At this point a lot of the underclassmen (Laurinaitis, Cushing, Maualuga) has said they will stay in school. This leaves the draft cupboard pretty bare.

If I were picking today and for the sake of argument the pick was around 7 (I hope it they trade back) but assuming it is at 7-10 I would take:
Round 1 - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida <-- Colvin replacement
Round 3 - Moffit

Veteran FA - Hobson, NY Jets

Our LBs would look something like:
OLB - Colvin, Harvey
ILB - Thomas, Alexander, Lua
ILB - Hobson, Moffit
OLB - Vrabel, Woods

It is not great, I would rather have Dansby but he might be too expensive. Keep in mind there are only 8 LBs on the team this year.

Without too much thought the ILBs in the draft look like:

• Bell, Beau UNLV 1-2 6-2 248 4.63 <-- possible target if there is a tradeback, or if he falls to the end of round 2
• Gooden, Tavares Miami 2 6-2 235 4.47 <-- small but maybe he becomes our main nickel \ pass coverage ILB
• Goff, Jonathan Vanderbilt 3-4 6-2 238 4.72
• Larsen, Spencer Arizona 5 6-2 243 4.82
• Moffitt, Ben South Florida 7-FA 6-2 245 4.69 <-- may favorite, I would take him any time at the end of round (including last pick of round 3)

At OLB the picture is a little brighter:

• Rivers, Keith Southern Cal 1 6-3 235 4.58
• Groves, Quentin Auburn 1 6-3 250 4.46
• Henderson, Erin Maryland 1 6-3 242 4.67 <-- may be able to play inside or outside
• Crable, Shawn Michigan 1-2 6-5 245 4.65
• Butler, Ezra Nevada 2-3 6-2 248 4.54
• Avril, Cliff Purdue 3 6-3 250 4.78
• Saint-Dic, Jonal Michigan State 5 6-1 255 4.76
• Kehl, Bryan BYU 5 6-3 235 4.65
• Keglar, Stanford Purdue 5-6 6-2 246 4.69

Sleepers

• Studebaker, Andy Wheaton 7-FA 6-3 245 4.55
• Taylor, Hilee North Carolina 6-3 242 4.69

DE/OLB

• Harvey, Derrick Florida 1 6-5 252 4.73 - Junior
• Gholston, Vernon Ohio State 1 6-4 258 4.67 - Junior
• Ellis, Chris Virginia Tech 2 6-5 256 4.74
• Blake, Tommy TCU 2-3 6-3 258 4.73
• Robertson, Darrell Georgia Tech 3 6-5 245 4.78
• Brown, Titus Mississippi State 4 6-3 248 4.74

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

I believe that I heard that Arizona has begun contract talks with Dansby.

 

[PonyExpress]

Good luck with predicting those mocks, very painful, very very painful.

I broke down my early thoughts on the veteran LBS are here

At this point a lot of the underclassmen (Laurinaitis, Cushing, Maualuga) has said they will stay in school. This leaves the draft cupboard pretty bare.

If I were picking today and for the sake of argument the pick was around 7 (I hope it they trade back) but assuming it is at 7-10 I would take:
Round 1 - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida <-- Colvin replacement
Round 3 - Moffit

Veteran FA - Hobson, NY Jets

Our LBs would look something like:
OLB - Colvin, Harvey
ILB - Thomas, Alexander, Lua
ILB - Hobson, Moffit
OLB - Vrabel, Woods

It is not great, I would rather have Dansby but he might be too expensive. Keep in mind there are only 8 LBs on the team this year.

Without too much thought the ILBs in the draft look like:

• Bell, Beau UNLV 1-2 6-2 248 4.63 <-- possible target if there is a tradeback, or if he falls to the end of round 2
• Gooden, Tavares Miami 2 6-2 235 4.47 <-- small but maybe he becomes our main nickel \ pass coverage ILB
• Goff, Jonathan Vanderbilt 3-4 6-2 238 4.72
• Larsen, Spencer Arizona 5 6-2 243 4.82
• Moffitt, Ben South Florida 7-FA 6-2 245 4.69 <-- may favorite, I would take him any time at the end of round (including last pick of round 3)

At OLB the picture is a little brighter:

• Rivers, Keith Southern Cal 1 6-3 235 4.58
• Groves, Quentin Auburn 1 6-3 250 4.46
• Henderson, Erin Maryland 1 6-3 242 4.67 <-- may be able to play inside or outside
• Crable, Shawn Michigan 1-2 6-5 245 4.65
• Butler, Ezra Nevada 2-3 6-2 248 4.54
• Avril, Cliff Purdue 3 6-3 250 4.78
• Saint-Dic, Jonal Michigan State 5 6-1 255 4.76
• Kehl, Bryan BYU 5 6-3 235 4.65
• Keglar, Stanford Purdue 5-6 6-2 246 4.69

Sleepers

• Studebaker, Andy Wheaton 7-FA 6-3 245 4.55
• Taylor, Hilee North Carolina 6-3 242 4.69

DE/OLB

• Harvey, Derrick Florida 1 6-5 252 4.73 - Junior
• Gholston, Vernon Ohio State 1 6-4 258 4.67 - Junior
• Ellis, Chris Virginia Tech 2 6-5 256 4.74
• Blake, Tommy TCU 2-3 6-3 258 4.73
• Robertson, Darrell Georgia Tech 3 6-5 245 4.78
• Brown, Titus Mississippi State 4 6-3 248 4.74

I've been watching Harvey pretty closely this season. He flashes some ability, but disappears often and seems easily handled in the run game. In fact, they seem to run right at him. We really have to wait for the combine to see if he's just been coasting. I haven't really seen freakish athleticism, which for me is a prerequisite for a pick that high. Need to watch Gholston more closely. Right now it looks like the pick will be higher than 7. It's unclear how many real "freaks" there are in the draft this season. Maybe the Michigan LT and McFadden. Q. Groves' speed seems remarkable. Maybe Chris Long. Kenny Philips. Those are the only players I could see the Pats spending top 10 money on. Top 5? Only Jake Long or McFadden. But they'd probably trade down and take a Sam Baker and Rey Maualuga instead. One potential 1st rdr I'm warming up to is 3-4 DE Tyson Jackson of LSU.

 

[PonyExpress]

I'm not happy about it, but I'm not worried quite yet either. I generally like to give guys a year or two in the system before I really pass judgement on them. I've had questions concerning Brandon's health for a while, so McShay's claims of Brandon having an injury could very well be true. Also, when he's been on the field lately it seems he's been thinking a lot, instead of just playing. That probably has a lot to do with his learning the Patriots system, and hopefully after he's been in the system a little longer, he'll have it down, and won't have to think so much.

I'll say the comparison I've seen a few posters make (Brandon to T-Buck) isn't even close. Meriweather wasn't simply a hard hitter who roamed a lot in college, he was solid in coverage, rarely bit on play fakes, and wrapped guys up, too. So, I believe he'll eventually show the traits I liked so much when he was coming out. He's won some black jerseys in practice, which would at least seem to indicate BB likes what Brandon's doing there, he now just needs to transfer it to sundays.

BB also seemed to like Brandon's effort in training camp, as he was usually the first rookie to the next drill, and BB on more than one instance would say "Brandon's here, where are all the other rookies". So, that also gives me hope that Brandon will eventually develope.

I just watched BB's breakdown of the Colt game on Patriots.com. He goes out of his way to compliment Meriweather for making a good special teams block on Welker's final punt return. So that's a start.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Agree about Long and McFadden. If we have a shot at either of them. Would be tough to pass up. I'll say SF wins 2 more games. And goes 4-12. That would probably put us about 6th behind; St.L,Miami,Jesters, Atlanta
and Oakland. I'm giving SF a W against ST.L and Minny. But, honestly. They could lose those games. Minny has a great run defense. Matches up well with SF's strength. If Rams get skill position players healthy; Bulger,S Jackson and WR's Holt and Bruce. They can score enough to beat the Niners.

Miami - J. Long
St. L - G.Dorsey
NY - D.McFadden
Atl - B.Brohm
Oak - C. Long
NE - Trade Down

Some teams picking behind us could take a qb. Maybe, a mediocre team will want to move up for a qb that will have 7-8 wins like; Baltimore or Chicago. We can fleece them. A 1 and 3 this year. And, a 1 next year.
We move down and take our cb.

1. M.Jenkins - CB - Ohio St
2. OLB - S.Crable - Michigan or C.Avril - Purdue
3. FM oak - Trade to move up in 2nd round
3. Trade coming down from 6 - ?? - ILB
3. RB or OL
4. OL or RB

We still get to root against a team next year. Priceless.

 

[BelichickFan]

I just watched BB's breakdown of the Colt game on Patriots.com. He goes out of his way to compliment Meriweather for making a good special teams block on Welker's final punt return. So that's a start.

Maybe I'm just stubborn but I don't think Meriweather's lack of time says much, if anything, about his ability or upside. What's that quote from Belichick in practice ? Something like "if you don't know where to be at all times I can't put you out there". We've all seen it, it's along those lines. The issue, very likely IMO, is that he's just not ready and trustworthy enough to be in the right spot right now. That doesn't touch on his ability though.

 

[harveyw]

Good luck with predicting those mocks, very painful, very very painful.

I broke down my early thoughts on the veteran LBS are here

At this point a lot of the underclassmen (Laurinaitis, Cushing, Maualuga) has said they will stay in school. This leaves the draft cupboard pretty bare.

If I were picking today and for the sake of argument the pick was around 7 (I hope it they trade back) but assuming it is at 7-10 I would take:
Round 1 - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida <-- Colvin replacement
Round 3 - Moffit

Veteran FA - Hobson, NY Jets

Our LBs would look something like:
OLB - Colvin, Harvey
ILB - Thomas, Alexander, Lua
ILB - Hobson, Moffit
OLB - Vrabel, Woods

It is not great, I would rather have Dansby but he might be too expensive. Keep in mind there are only 8 LBs on the team this year.

Without too much thought the ILBs in the draft look like:

• Bell, Beau UNLV 1-2 6-2 248 4.63 <-- possible target if there is a tradeback, or if he falls to the end of round 2
• Gooden, Tavares Miami 2 6-2 235 4.47 <-- small but maybe he becomes our main nickel \ pass coverage ILB
• Goff, Jonathan Vanderbilt 3-4 6-2 238 4.72
• Larsen, Spencer Arizona 5 6-2 243 4.82
• Moffitt, Ben South Florida 7-FA 6-2 245 4.69 <-- may favorite, I would take him any time at the end of round (including last pick of round 3)

At OLB the picture is a little brighter:

• Rivers, Keith Southern Cal 1 6-3 235 4.58
• Groves, Quentin Auburn 1 6-3 250 4.46
• Henderson, Erin Maryland 1 6-3 242 4.67 <-- may be able to play inside or outside
• Crable, Shawn Michigan 1-2 6-5 245 4.65
• Butler, Ezra Nevada 2-3 6-2 248 4.54
• Avril, Cliff Purdue 3 6-3 250 4.78
• Saint-Dic, Jonal Michigan State 5 6-1 255 4.76
• Kehl, Bryan BYU 5 6-3 235 4.65
• Keglar, Stanford Purdue 5-6 6-2 246 4.69

Sleepers

• Studebaker, Andy Wheaton 7-FA 6-3 245 4.55
• Taylor, Hilee North Carolina 6-3 242 4.69

DE/OLB

• Harvey, Derrick Florida 1 6-5 252 4.73 - Junior
• Gholston, Vernon Ohio State 1 6-4 258 4.67 - Junior
• Ellis, Chris Virginia Tech 2 6-5 256 4.74
• Blake, Tommy TCU 2-3 6-3 258 4.73
• Robertson, Darrell Georgia Tech 3 6-5 245 4.78
• Brown, Titus Mississippi State 4 6-3 248 4.74

I know that you projected rounds were pulled from a site, but the is no way Moffit lasts beyond the top of the 3rd. I have been able to watch a few SF games due to their recent emergence and Moffit is a force. He has great closing speed for a larger LB and runs the D like a general. I think he would be the ideal replacement for Brushci with the last pick in the 2nd.

 

[cstjohn17]

I know that you projected rounds were pulled from a site, but the is no way Moffit lasts beyond the top of the 3rd. I have been able to watch a few SF games due to their recent emergence and Moffit is a force. He has great closing speed for a larger LB and runs the D like a general. I think he would be the ideal replacement for Brushci with the last pick in the 2nd.

Classic example of the ratings being done before the season starts, I think I said the same thing...

"Moffitt, Ben South Florida 7-FA 6-2 245 4.69 <-- my favorite, I would take him any time at the end of round (including last pick of round 3)"

My only question is how big is he really, one site lists him at 245 and I have seen others list him at 233-234, big difference in the Pats scheme.

If the Patriots could come out of the first 3 rounds with a CB, a OL and Moffit plus a first rounder which should be a very good player I would be happy.

 

[PonyExpress]

Had a look at Gholston and Groves. Gholston looks like an Abiamiri clone, thick, a pure 4-3 DE. Groves looks athletic but lost at LB and not very violent.

 

[patchick]

As we work our way through OLB candidates, anybody have insights on Shawn Crable of Michigan? He had a lot of pre-season buzz that died down after the team's atrocious start.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Looking at San Francisco's remaining schedule, they'll probably finish 4-12 at best. There's a significant chance they could finish only 3-13 for the year, and it's not impossible for them to finish 2-14. That could be a very, very good pick the Patriots are getting.

 

[RussFrancis]

Ive got a feeling Merriweather is being groomed as Samuel's replacement. He's not been used much at safety. I think next year we'll see Harrison and Sanders back. possibly Wilson. But Samuel will probably be gone, and I think Merriweather may be the guy asked to fill the shoes. Just a guess.

 

[RussFrancis]

As we work our way through OLB candidates, anybody have insights on Shawn Crable of Michigan? He had a lot of pre-season buzz that died down after the team's atrocious start.

The Pats are famous for drafting 3 point DE's and converting them to outside backers. heck, even Bruschi was a D end in college. I wouldnt be thinking too long about very many of the backers coming out this year because history shows they just dont draft those guys too high.

I like Chris Long with Virginia. The kid is an absolute stud, and he's already playing end in a 3-4 scheme. 6'4 something like 280ish, with pass rushing skills. Has 12 or so sacks this year and a big time motor. You just cant have enough depth along the line on either side of the ball. The team seems to prefer veteran LBs, usually FAs, but they like to go to the young guys along the lines.

Jake Long with Michigan would be another great pick in the top 5. 6'7 and 315 with overpowering blocking skills. Nothing like adding a young mauler to an already strong Oline. Not beating up on Kaszur at the RT spot, but Long has got all-pro potential. And again, depth along the lines is a good thing. Id rather give the big $ to the big bodies.

 

[sebman2112]

Ive got a feeling Merriweather is being groomed as Samuel's replacement. He's not been used much at safety. I think next year we'll see Harrison and Sanders back. possibly Wilson. But Samuel will probably be gone, and I think Merriweather may be the guy asked to fill the shoes. Just a guess.

I'm not so sure about this. I think if all things go well Meriweather will be Wilson's replacement. Also, I really doubt Samuel will be back, and I think Wilson will move on as well.

Mike Richardson & Willie Andrews could surprise next year, and NE will draft at least one first day DB, with a second DB coming on the second day seeming a likely possibility..

I think Ellis Hobbs is a better CB than some Pats fans realize, as well.

I'm not sure of the accuracy of this stat, but I've recently read that Hobbs has given up ZERO passing TD's so far this season, while Samuel has given up four passing TD's. Does anyone know if this is correct?

 

[BelichickFan]

The Pats are famous for drafting 3 point DE's and converting them to outside backers. heck, even Bruschi was a D end in college. I wouldnt be thinking too long about very many of the backers coming out this year because history shows they just dont draft those guys too high.

We also have no history of drafting DE to OLB conversions high either.

Jake Long with Michigan would be another great pick in the top 5. 6'7 and 315 with overpowering blocking skills. Nothing like adding a young mauler to an already strong Oline. Not beating up on Kaszur at the RT spot, but Long has got all-pro potential. And again, depth along the lines is a good thing. Id rather give the big $ to the big bodies.

I'm fine with J. Long but a lot of people think he's more of a #10 type pick than a #3 - #5 type pick so he may be somewhat of an overdraft if we get a top five and use it on him without trading down.