The biggest gain over the Colts on Sunday...

[TedyB54]

I think that if there was ever a colts team that is best suited to play at the Razor in January it's the 07 version of the Colts.

So, let's see if I get this straight:

On Defense

The Colts defense is predicated on having fast, speedy defenders that can cover a lot of ground and get to the ball quickly, therefore limiting the offenses ability to drive down the field. Making on the fly adjustments and getting to the QB is supposed to force their opponents into short gains or missed plays.

Now, if the field is say....covered in slippery snow, sleet, freezing rain....something like that. Won't that negate the effectiveness of that fast, speedy defense? If they can't get to where the ball is thrown or run to quick enough, then those short gains suddenly become bigger plays.

Wouldn't a larger, more physical O Line be able to bear down and push the smaller Defense around in a trench battle since the "swarm to the ball" tactic won't work as well on a sloppy field?


On Offense

If the swirling wind predicted by Colts fans will shut down Bradys passing game, then it should have the same impact on Mannings ability as well, unless of course Dungy manages to arrange for the Colts to use a special ball on offense. Therefore, if the Colts passing game is limited, then, unlike this past Sunday, the Pats D can focus their effort more on stopping the run game.

Addai ran free in the dome because the Pats had to concede something to the Colts offense....they knew they couldn't stop all of it. So, they schemed to take away Clark and the big strike play of Manning and his WR's and gambled on trying to limit the running game. Even though Addai racked up the yards, it also killed the clock and limited Indy's scoring chances.

If the Pat's won't be able to pass in January, neither will the Colts. Therefore, the larger Pat's D will focus on stopping the running game, meanwhile, the smaller Colts D is going to be 2 steps behind where they'd normally be on a fast surface.

 

[Tony Cahncuhd]

Do you have a reason you would like to share?

Yes, because it's far from obvious why the 2007 Colts would have any advantage in cold weather over prior incarnations.

Did they buy new high-tech long johns? Did someone knit them mittens?

 

[letekro]

I think that if there was ever a colts team that is best suited to play at the Razor in January it's the 07 version of the Colts.

Oh please. The 03' and '04 versions had Edge at the height of his powers, and our offense didn't really do anything spectacular against your D in those games. At some point it's going to come down to Brady and Manning, and we know how that is likely to turn out.

Also, don't buy the bs that the mediots are dishing out that this Patriots team can't stop the run. Keep in mind Addai ran wild against nickel and dime defenses. If weather is such a factor, he will be facing 8-man fronts.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Is far and away the psychological victory. Think about what would have happened if the Colts had held onto their 10-point lead.

-4 straight wins against the Patriots
-Won without Harrison
-Confident they can win at RCA Dome, as it would be the house of horrors for Pats
-Despite the Patriots signing lots of big free agents specifically for a game in those conditions, Colts still win

It would have been a very, very long two weeks as a Pats fan.

Despite that these teams are pretty close, I think the Patriots gained a huge mental victory, for confidence, and the Colts realize what they've lost. It appears the momentum of the series has shifted, and it's not just that the Patriots won, but how they won... the same way the Colts beat them last year, by making huge plays down the stretch while Indy blew several chances to put the game away.

Trends indicate this IS a bigger game than the media is saying.

Between these two teams, the home team is 3-0 in the playoffs.

The team that won during the regular season is 3-0 in the playoffs.

The Colts struggled on offense mightily last year on a cold field in Baltimore. They play only ONE game the rest of the way in cold weather.

The Patriots play the remainder of their games outside in the cold northern US. This will be a huge edge, as the Patriots will gradually adjust to the conditions and have months to tweak their team.

 

[patsox23]

The Patriots play the remainder of their games outside in the cold northern US. This will be a huge edge, as the Patriots will gradually adjust to the conditions and have months to tweak their team.

GREAT point. Thanks for posting.

 

[Tony Cahncuhd]

Is far and away the psychological victory.

The Patriots play the remainder of their games outside in the cold northern US. This will be a huge edge, as the Patriots will gradually adjust to the conditions and have months to tweak their team.

I think the biggest advantage of home field will be that Kaczur and Light will actually be able to hear the snap count and get a better jump on Freeney and Mathis. This means that Brady will have that much more time to let routes develop and open up. This factor alone tells me its going to be a rout next time, if Indy even makes it that far in the playoffs.

 

[PatsFan37]

I think the biggest advantage of home field will be that Kaczur and Light will actually be able to hear the snap count and get a better jump on Freeney and Mathis. This means that Brady will have that much more time to let routes develop and open up. This factor alone tells me its going to be a rout next time, if Indy even makes it that far in the playoffs.

We'll never hear any excuses from the team, but it appears one of the biggest factors in the game was the combination of no coach-QB communications, along with the crowd noise.

Take that away, put the game in cold weather, and I'll bet the Colts rushers tire a lot quicker.

 

[Rob0729]

The thing about the cold is that I am not convinced that if we are playing in Foxboro in the FC Championship game that we are going to be playing a warm weather team. Pittsburgh is pretty scary right now.

I think the biggest advantage right now is that Indy and Pittsburgh are fighting for the #2 seed right now. I see a very possible scenario that Pittsburgh is the #2 seed. Right now, we only have to worry about is Indy and we have the tiebreaker against them.

Even if Pittsburgh doesn't overtake Indy, the likely division round match up will be Pittsburgh vs. the #2 seed. So of we maintain the #1 seed and win the division round, we will face either an Indy or Pittsburgh team that went through a hard fought physical battle. I don't see any other team in the AFC that concerns me in the playoffs as much as Indy or Pittsburgh. So having them play each other first before we get the winner is a huge advantage.

 

[TedyB54]

Is far and away the psychological victory. Think about what would have happened if the Colts had held onto their 10-point lead.

-4 straight wins against the Patriots
-Won without Harrison
-Confident they can win at RCA Dome, as it would be the house of horrors for Pats
-Despite the Patriots signing lots of big free agents specifically for a game in those conditions, Colts still win

It would have been a very, very long two weeks as a Pats fan.

Despite that these teams are pretty close, I think the Patriots gained a huge mental victory, for confidence, and the Colts realize what they've lost.

Ice,

I'm not so sure that's the case. According to the analysis by the "Colts Fans NFL Experts Commission", BB actually blew it by beating the Colts at home and setting up a possible AFCCG rematch at Gillette in January.

You see, by some complicated logic (which I admit is beyond my understanding) it's actually to the Colts ADVANTAGE to play outdoors in cold weather rather than at home in a controlled environment and under the mic's in the dome's rafters.

Apparently, the Commission has already concluded that should the rematch occur, that the Pat's O playbook will only contain 45+ yard pass plays to Moss, which of course will be negated by the swirling winds that somehow they've also already established will be present (how come our local weatherman can't predict the conditions 2 months in advance??).

So, while us homer fans have foolishly taken pride in Sunday's hard fought, comeback victory, it's the Colts who will apparently be getting the last laugh on us now that Belichick has fallen into their trap of "letting them win" in Indy so that they can take it to us in Foxboro.

Damn, and we thought that Dungy was supposed to be the Good Genius.

 

[nowayback]

yes they were talking about how moss will be against colts in the cold...well he will be playing the rest of his games in the cold till then. i wonder who will be more prepared the pats who have their remaining games in the cold or the colts have have all but one of their remaing games in domes !

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

yes they were talking about how moss will be against colts in the cold...well he will be playing the rest of his games in the cold till then. i wonder who will be more prepared the pats who have their remaining games in the cold or the colts have have all but one of their remaing games in domes !

Well we KNOW this:

Manning is terrible in cold weather... against the Patriots, against the Ravens, against every team (only other team was Jets in '02). His only four cold weather playoff games: 1 TD, 9 INTs. I didn't even bother with his completion percentage or passer rating, as I'm sure they are historically terrible.

There is no debate.

Marvin Harrison is also bad in cold weather. He has yet to crack 50 yards and has 0 TDs.


Now, do we really need to discuss Tom Brady in cold weather? Snow Ball, AFCCG vs. Pittsburgh in '04, Tennessee game, both Colts games.

In my opinion this is one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL.

 

[checkedout]

I think that if there was ever a colts team that is best suited to play at the Razor in January it's the 07 version of the Colts.

Do you have a reason you would like to share?

 

[TruthSeeker]

If we lose 2 games, and the Colts don't lose any, this point of home field is moot. Hopefully if we win out, we have home field wrapped up (or hopefully Indy loses to SD this weekend). I think the psychological effect was a big gain as others mentioned. They now know that, even though they didn't play a good game, and were called for a historical amount of penalties, they could still beat the Colts. That was huge !

 

[patchick]

I think the biggest advantage right now is that Indy and Pittsburgh are fighting for the #2 seed right now. I see a very possible scenario that Pittsburgh is the #2 seed.

Wow, I don't know about that. Do you see Indy losing 2 more games? Or Pittsburgh winning out, including in Foxboro?

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Another *gain* is that despite winning, any delusions of this team being immortal are gone. We praise BB and the Pats in general for saying they don't take any opponent lightly, but it's hard for players to keep sharp every single game. Reminders that you're not as good as the press clippings make you out to be are good. You just hope the reminder doesn't come in the form of a critical loss.

I remember when the Pats blew that 2004 game in Miami, essentially ruining any chance at HFA over Pittsburgh. The next week they methodically annihilated the Jets, not allowing a first down until well into the 3rd quarter. The week after that, they demolished the 49ers in a half-hearted effort. Then they held 49TD Manning to 3 points, then went into top-defense-ranked Pittsburgh and put up 41. I think they laid off the gas a bit in SB39, yet still won. People were up in arms over that awful Miami loss, but I said at the time that the loss would cause them to play with renewed focus the rest of the year and they did.

This "almost loss" will keep the Pats focused if they weren't already. It might be the best thing that happened to them in their title quest and a chance at 19-0.

Regards,
Chris

 

[FilPats]

So, let's see if I get this straight:

On Defense

The Colts defense is predicated on having fast, speedy defenders that can cover a lot of ground and get to the ball quickly, therefore limiting the offenses ability to drive down the field. Making on the fly adjustments and getting to the QB is supposed to force their opponents into short gains or missed plays.

Now, if the field is say....covered in slippery snow, sleet, freezing rain....something like that. Won't that negate the effectiveness of that fast, speedy defense? If they can't get to where the ball is thrown or run to quick enough, then those short gains suddenly become bigger plays.

Wouldn't a larger, more physical O Line be able to bear down and push the smaller Defense around in a trench battle since the "swarm to the ball" tactic won't work as well on a sloppy field?


On Offense

If the swirling wind predicted by Colts fans will shut down Bradys passing game, then it should have the same impact on Mannings ability as well, unless of course Dungy manages to arrange for the Colts to use a special ball on offense. Therefore, if the Colts passing game is limited, then, unlike this past Sunday, the Pats D can focus their effort more on stopping the run game.

Addai ran free in the dome because the Pats had to concede something to the Colts offense....they knew they couldn't stop all of it. So, they schemed to take away Clark and the big strike play of Manning and his WR's and gambled on trying to limit the running game. Even though Addai racked up the yards, it also killed the clock and limited Indy's scoring chances.

If the Pat's won't be able to pass in January, neither will the Colts. Therefore, the larger Pat's D will focus on stopping the running game, meanwhile, the smaller Colts D is going to be 2 steps behind where they'd normally be on a fast surface.

Not to mention that Moss' advantage in jumpball situation is magnified in this field condition. Go Pats.:rocker:

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Wow, I don't know about that. Do you see Indy losing 2 more games? Or Pittsburgh winning out, including in Foxboro?

AH, no and no

 

[Patjew]

This is a great thread with lots to chew on.

I'm certainly not presuming the Pats have already clinched HFA, though. Long way to go for that. Still, some gret posts here.