The importance of stopping Addai

[JoeSixPat]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but it seems to me that the Colts strategy will be to avoid a shoot-out as best they can.

I'm over simplifying, but the more a team can keep the ball out of Brady's hands the better.

I suspect they'd prefer to see a game in which the Patriots have as few posessions as possible - which means they should employ a ball control offense that keeps the ball in their possession as long as possible, keeping the score within striking distance at all times.

So for me, stopping Addai, rather than stopping Manning or Dallas Clark etc will be the key to the game for the Patriots.

Do others see it this way too?

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

I agree with you. Addai and getting off the field on third downs...

 

[Holy Diver]

I can see this as an argument with a ONE dimensional squad, but thats not the case with the Colts.

They have the ability to run, pass, and trick you. I believe in a game like this the Patriots should be more concerned with situations and tendencies. Attepting to "stop the run" will leave us open, and allow manning to pick us apart.

I believe that BB will employ the same D he always does, the CONFUSION D. Dropping 8 into coverage, 2 in the Box, Colvin running in coverage with Addai etc.

 

[Patriots4Life83]

I would have to agree that Addai is the player I think needs a lot of attention (the way we keyed Witten in the Dallas game). But I also feel like if there is a key to stopping the Colts BB will be the first to notice it and practice accordingly.

 

[Mack Herron]

Agree. Pass offense is less than what it was with an aging Harrison struggling to get on th field. They lean heavily on Addai and he has come through. If you can make them one-dimensional, the Colts cannot win with the passing game. Got to contain the stretch play and keep him between the tackles.

 

[mesoslo]

But Dungy knows we have thomas and seau and harrison, so he is not gona even care about the run. Its not worth it, he would rather rely on Peyton because Peyton won him a super bowl.

addai is important? we played against LT and look what we did to him, and clinton portis.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I just think that the Patriots typically take away one aspect of an opposing teams offense - and don't try to stop everything.

In this case BB knows that if its a shootout, the more possessions Brady has, the more the offense will score, the more chances the defense will have to stop the Colts and the higher likelihood the Pats have of pulling away.

A ball control game by the Colts with a star runner like Addai will see a closer, lower scoring game. While that's not normally the Colts game plan, in this case it would have to be.

 

[TomBradyWoot]

But Dungy knows we have thomas and seau and harrison, so he is not gona even care about the run. Its not worth it, he would rather rely on Peyton because Peyton won him a super bowl.

addai is important? we played against LT and look what we did to him, and clinton portis.

LT didn't have the passing game that Addai has. It's way easier to key in on LT compared to keying in on Addai.

 

[xmarkd400x]

I don't think the Colts have a "weakness" or achilles heel that most teams in the league have. For instance, Washington just can not beat you passing the ball.

I think against the Colts it will be "play disciplined defense". I think you have to win individual battles to make the W happen. The scheme will not win this game, the players will win this game. The scheme will put the players in a position to win the game.

 

[The Predator]

But Dungy knows we have thomas and seau and harrison, so he is not gona even care about the run. Its not worth it, he would rather rely on Peyton because Peyton won him a super bowl.

addai is important? we played against LT and look what we did to him, and clinton portis.

Ummmmmm do you realize that that SD doesn't have a passing game and neither does WA in comparison to the Colts???

Addai is very important as the Colts have been using him heavily this year. Have you even seen a game or recap? Since Addai leads all RBs in TDs, is third in passing yards, and seventh in rushing in the NFL, I would say YES he is important.

Any other silly questions?

 

[jimmyjames]

I tend to agree that taking Addai out of the game is huge. So how do you do it without opening up the deep balls?

Can the front 7 (really front 6, as you have to assume one LB will drop into coverage virtually every play) stop Addai without Safety support?

Or do you bring Rodney up to defend the run and trust that Thomas can cover Clark?

 

[Oswlek]

Indy actually is an excellent running team this year. If I could take only two guys out of the game, it would be Clark and Addai.

 

[makoute]

Indy actually is an excellent running team this year. If I could take only two guys out of the game, it would be Clark and Addai.

Indy has always been an excellent running team. EJ did avg about 1500 hundred yards in his years there.

 

[FlyingElvis75]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but it seems to me that the Colts strategy will be to avoid a shoot-out as best they can.

I'm over simplifying, but the more a team can keep the ball out of Brady's hands the better.

I suspect they'd prefer to see a game in which the Patriots have as few posessions as possible - which means they should employ a ball control offense that keeps the ball in their possession as long as possible, keeping the score within striking distance at all times.

So for me, stopping Addai, rather than stopping Manning or Dallas Clark etc will be the key to the game for the Patriots.

Do others see it this way too?

I think stopping ALL of them would be a good idea.

Seriously, though, I think Addai is going to be most dangerous if the Pats fall behind, for the reasons you stated. If the Colts fall behind by a lot, conventional wisdom would probably say that they'd go to Addai less.

So I think the key will be to get out to a good early lead, which the Pats have done, and stop the long ball afterward, which they have also done - in which case, giving up short yardage to Addai probably isn't a big problem. (Granted, they haven't done either of those things against the Colts' offense or defense.) The worst thing you can do when you're winning is to give up quick scores, imho.

 

[Oswlek]

Indy has always been an excellent running team. EJ did avg about 1500 hundred yards in his years there.

Yardage isn't everything. Indy with Edge (and even last year in Addai's first year) was notoriouosly terrible in short yardage situations. Anecdotally, look at the 2003 and 2004 reg season matchups, where Indy couldn't get 2 yards on 4 tries and Edge fumbled on the 1 yard line.

They no longer need to pass to run. Even when the defense knows that the run is coming they still haven't stopped it.

Indy's run game is significantly better than it has been since 2003.

 

[FlyingElvis75]

Yardage isn't everything. Indy with Edge (and even last year in Addai's first year) was notoriouosly terrible in short yardage situations. Anecdotally, look at the 2003 and 2004 reg season matchups, where Indy couldn't get 2 yards on 4 tries and Edge fumbled on the 1 yard line.

They no longer need to pass to run. Even when the defense knows that the run is coming they still haven't stopped it.

Indy's run game is significantly better than it has been since 2003.

You're scaring me now.

Nnngh. Rrrrgh. Agghh. Gahh. I can't farking wait until Sunday...

 

[dryheat44]

It's Addai...but not running the ball. Look for the Colts to try to sucker the front four in and throw screens to Addai all day. It will be very hard to cover both Addai and Clark in the passing game playing our usual defense.

Unlike previous games, where the Patriots line up in a 2-5 or some exotic defense, I think they should line up in a 4-3 (Vrabel playing at end), but at the snap at least two, and sometimes three, linemen drop back, rushing only 1 or 2 and leaving the rest to hold Addai to short gains and clog the short passing lanes.

I think variation is the key to this game. Never show the same look too often, and hope for a few mis-reads by Manning to turn into INTs.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

JoeSixPat is on the mark - shutting down Addai is also my key to the game. Addai is the central cog in the Indy offense at this time. Now, Manning is certainly good enough to carry a team on his own if need be, but cooling off Addai - both in rushing and cathcing passes - will force the Colts out of the flow they've been in for weeks and getting teams to feel off balance is BB's trademark.

I think we can focus on stopping Addai without selling out completely to stop the run. Why? Because of three names - Thomas, Seau, and Harrison - none of whom played in the AFCCG. Seau and Thomas have the speed to turn and run with Clark if they smell play action. Rodney is the master of dissecting the intention of the offense just as the ball is snapped and can, and will, charge the line of scrimmage to hammer Addai. Thomas will be there waiting to swallow up Addai on those killer dumps over the middle. Yes, this will lead to some man to man coverage on Wayne and Clark and thus lead to some big plays for the Colts but the tradeoff is a Colts O not in rhythm which should lead to a lower scoring total for them. No one is playing better off the edge right than Vrabel so Manning will not have much time to look around after faking a handoff. Shut down the run and the pass rush just becomes that much more potent.

Also, more passing means a longer game, and more chances for Brady and Moss to scorch the Colts. Actually, if our running game, meaning Maroney, can get rolling, the Colts will need Sanders up close and then Brady will have a field day. Watson playing will also demand attention from Sanders, another big plus for our O.

 

[AirForcePatFan]

Stopping the run is always a prioritity for the Pats D... I think the game changer is going to be putting pressure on Manning and getting him out of his groove... If the Pats D do those two things, I think we win the ballgame...

 

[JoeSixPat]

It's Addai...but not running the ball. Look for the Colts to try to sucker the front four in and throw screens to Addai all day. It will be very hard to cover both Addai and Clark in the passing game playing our usual defense.

Ahh - good point... but my thought was also that Indy has an interest in keeping the ball out of Brady's hands for as long as possible.

Obviously that doesn't mean they'll run and only run - but they have an interest in eating up the clock.

Maintaining possession of the ball rather than actually trying for a shootout would be part of my gameplan if I were the Colts.