Here is how I basically see it working out. The Colts are skillfull enough on offense to move the ball against the Pats. Good enough to see them have 5 scoring drives this game. Unfortunately for them, I only see them getting into the endzone twice, so their score will be 23.
On the other hand I see the Pats having 7 scoring drives and getting into the endzone at least 3 times so I see a bottom line score of 33-40 points. So the Pats will cover again. I can't wait to see what the spread is against our next opponent.
Drive Chart Championship
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/drive...yPage=tab_drive_chart&season=2006&week=POST20
25 Possessions total
- Patriots had 12*
- one possession was at end of 1st half for 7 seconds, one was at end of game for 44 seconds
- Colts had 13*
- one was for the kneel at end of game
9 Punts in total
Interesting if the Pats ran the ball all 3 downs and then punted it would take about 2:30 seconds off the clock. In the second half their longest drive was 2:44. They had a brutal 12:31 time of possession in the 2nd half.
Lets say 22 'real' possessions, I expect 6 punts in total. Leaving 16 possessions, one turnover per team leaves 14 scoring drives.
This is such a thin margin, if each team scores 7 times. It could look like.
TD, TD, TD, TD, FG, FG, FG = 37
TD, TD, TD, FG, FG, FG, FG = 33
The margin is very thin, razor thin.
As far as the actual game. I think it is important for both teams to run up the number of offensive plays, kind of like a pitch count. When a defense hits 50+ plays they become extremely ineffective leading to a lot of 4th quarter points. Brady will have to be on top of his game, the Colts will allow the stuff underneath while minimizing the deep play. If Sanders can be lured into the box (see effective running game) there should be an opportunity over the top.
On defense I expect a lot of different looks with more of a nickel or heavy nickel emphasis. The Patriots will also blitz more than people expect to take advantage of the LT.
It should be a classic, I don't think it is as big of a slam dunk as people expect. In the end Brady is just too relentless and the Pats win 34-31 in OT.