Colts vs. Pats Pass Defense

[Metaphors]

Much has been made about the Colts having the #1 pass defense in the league...which they do at 165.4 ypg (Pats at #5 with 181.5 ypg). Here are the QBs the Colts have played against (in order of passer rating):

#2 Garrard (injured and replaced by Gray)
#7 Garcia
#16 Cutler
#17 Schaub
#22 Brees
#31 V.Young
UNR Testeverde/Carr

The Colts have faced 8 receivers in the top 50 in receiving yards (J.Galloway #12 and S.Smith #21 being the best) and have faced 2 teams with multiple top 50 receivers:

HOU - K.Walter #23, O.Daniels #31 and A.Davis #37
TB - J.Galloway #12 and I.Hilliard #26

The Pats have faced the following QBs:

Romo #5
D.Anderson #6
C.Palmer #11
P.Rivers #13
Pennington #15
J.Campbell #24
Lemon #28
Edwards #29

The Pats have faced 12 receivers in the top 50 in receiving yards (C.Johnson #2 and B.Edwards #3 being the best) and have faced 4 teams with multiple top 50 receivers:

DAL - T.Owens #14, J.Witten #15 and P.Crayton #35
CLE - B.Edwards #3 and K.Winslow #16
CIN - C.Johnson #2, TJ Housh #7
NYJ - Cotchery #9 and Coles #27

The Pats have faced passing attacks comparable to the Colts (DAL #3 and CIN #5...maybe even CLE at #9) while the best the Colts have faced is HOU at #4.

Looks like the Pats come into Sunday's game with more experience with top QBs and receiving tandems (including TEs with Winslow, Gates, Witten), so I think it is easier to set expectations on how they will perform. I really can't get a good bead on the Colts pass D since there is limited top-tier experience to go on.

 

[Nordberg]

I have been saying it all season....

The Colts defense have not played an offense even close to what they will face Sunday.

Everytime they face a decent offense...a major part is missing

 

[stevedogc]

I was thinking the exact same thing. I think the so called "new and improved" Colts defense is a bit overrated. And dont forget that when the Colts faced Houston, Andre Johnson out with an injury.

 

[FlyingElvis75]

Weren't people in the media saying things like "the Patriots have not played a real offense" before the Dallas game, and "the Patriots have not played a real defense" before the Washington game? Is there stuff like that about the Colts now?

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

The biggest intrigue to me is seeing how this Colts defense responds to a) the new weapons now on the Pats offense and b) the influx of SPEED and talent now on this Patriots offense.

The WR positions with this years Pats offense is significantly different than the one that the Colts saw last time these two teams squared off. How quick will they adapt?

Further, the amount of speed and new talent that this years Pats offense will be trotting out onto the field this time around is so much improved over last year that I expect it will take the Colts time to adjust.

By the time they adapt and adjust it may be too late.

 

[Nordberg]

The biggest intrigue to me is seeing how this Colts defense responds to a) the new weapons now on the Pats offense and b) the influx of SPEED and talent now on this Patriots offense.

The WR positions with this years Pats offense is significantly different than the one that the Colts saw last time these two teams squared off. How quick will they adapt?

Further, the amount of speed and new talent that this years Pats offense will be trotting out onto the field this time around is so much improved over last year that I expect it will take the Colts time to adjust.

By the time they adapt and adjust it may be too late.

That's a real good point. I hear everyone saying how much these teams know each other. But the Colts defensive coaches and personal have not played this offense yet.

 

[skri65]

Good info, I didn't realize the significant difference in competition.

 

[Amnorix]

First, the standard NFL yardstick of yards per game (for both offense and defnese) for ranking a team is extremely silly.

The Colts pass defense is quite good. Their QB rating against is 3rd, at 69.9. Slightly ahead of the Pats at 5th with a 73.0 against.

They are towards the bottom with 12 sacks, to the Pats 22.

On the other hand, they are very good at preventing the long game. They've allowed 7 passes of 20+ yards and 2 of 40+ Yards. The Patriots, meanwhile, have allowed 16 of 20+ yards but 0 of 40+ yards.

Both teams are ballhawks, with the Pats at 11 and the Colts at 9 interceptions for the year.

Then, of course, you would try to adjust for the opponents they have each played.

Lookng just at team QB efficiency (to keep this short), the Pats have played Dallas (4th), SD (7th), Cleveland (8th), Cincy (9), Jets (21), Redskins (23), Bills (25) and Dolphins (27), showing an odd distribution away from the middle, as they've only played teams in the top and bottom 10 of the league. Figure that sort of averages out (4 in each category), so their highly ranked pass defense is "real" -- i.e. not overyl skewed by having played only weak pass offenses.

The Colts have played TB (5), Jax (12), Denver (14), Carolina (15), Houston (16), NO (20), and Ten (28).

Based on this somewhat limited analysis, the Pats and Colts have had roughly equal difficulty in the competition they have faced. The Colts have played 1 top 10 pass offense, 6 in the "middle", and 1 at the bottom. This distribution also works out to be about average, more or less.

So the two teams' pass defenses both seem to be quite good.

 

[indycolts685]

I was thinking the exact same thing. I think the so called "new and improved" Colts defense is a bit overrated. And dont forget that when the Colts faced Houston, Andre Johnson out with an injury.

I understand where your coming from when you say that because we really haven't played any decent offense, but last years defense could be scored on by high school teams, so I do think its improved alot over last year.. I guess the ultimate test is Sunday to see if we have any kind of defense at all.

 

[sieglo]

The Colts pass defense is quite good. Their QB rating against is 3rd, at 69.9. Slightly ahead of the Pats at 5th with a 73.0 against.

I wonder what the numbers would be if you took the average QB rating of the teams they play, minus the average QB rating against -- a kind of measure of how much each defense depresses the effectiveness of the opposing QB.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

That's a real good point. I hear everyone saying how much these teams know each other. But the Colts defensive coaches and personal have not played this offense yet.

I think it's a HUGE advantage for the Pats in this game.

The Colts defense is basically going into this contest green where the Pats offense is concerned. They'll rely on tape!

Aside from Gonzalez, BB knows this Colts offense inside and out.

Further, the Colts cover 2 defensive philosophy is predicated on being faster than the opposing offense. They out hustle you to the ball, they get to the ball quicker than other teams because they are usually much faster than their opposing offensive players, and they use that speed to gang tackle each play. With all the speed the Pats now have on offense all of that reliance on speed by the Colts defense may be for naught. The Colts defense might very well be facing an offense that is actually faster than them!

If I were Colts fan I'd be worried that my teams defense isn't known for it's ability to quickly change game plans and adapt to a situation that hasn't been planned for. For all the good that the Dungy cover 2 offers, it isn't a scheme that is adept to change. You basically are stuck with undersized, quick defenders who rely on being faster and quicker than their opponent. When they aren't, all hell breaks loose. If my suspicion is correct and the Pats are faster than the Colts defenders, this could get ugly for the Colts because I don't see them being able to adapt for a schematically weak defensive philosophy.

 

[FlyingElvis75]

I wonder what the numbers would be if you took the average QB rating of the teams they play, minus the average QB rating against -- a kind of measure of how much each defense depresses the effectiveness of the opposing QB.

That would be nice. I did that in a few posts earlier this year, but for points scored against the Pats' D.

@ Amnorix: Thanks for the lists; I went ahead and looked up the pass ratings for all the opponents and ranked them in order:

IND:
1 92.5
2 89.3
3 86.0
4 85.9
5 85.8
6 78.6
7 70.2

NE:
1 95.6
2 92.4
3 91.5
4 90.7
5 77.7
6 76.8
7 73.8
8 71.3

Not sure what it's supposed to mean, but there it is.

 

[homergreg]

I think if the Colts Pass Defense has a chance, it's not going to be keeping Moss, Stallworth, or Welker from catching the ball. Brady has just been too accurate and these receivers have just been too good at getting to it. Brady hasn't been making a lot of mistakes so interceptions are also unlikely, at least clean, step in front of the ball interceptions. Brady usually has a game where he throws up a lot of picks, but the way he's playing this year it's unlikely. (But I can dream!)

Where Colts secondary has a chance, and I'm saying a chance, is that the secondary of the Colts hits HARD. They have a chance of generating a few turnovers with hits right as the ball gets there, or as these receivers generate their gaudy YAC numbers.

This is where I see them as having a chance, no doubt there will be some big plays by the receivers.

 

[stcjones]

I have been saying it all season....

The Colts defense have not played an offense even close to what they will face Sunday.

Everytime they face a decent offense...a major part is missing

I have been saying this all along also......Indy's D has yet to play a TOP SHELF offense with a #1 QB..........they played Garrard, Testaverde, etc etc......NO ONE........Now we will see what their D can do against the most powerful offense in the league......This is not "homerism".....this is the simple truth....I don't think they have it to beat us.....unless we shoot ourselves in the foot over and over..........Our defense should be able to control Clark and Wayne...pretty well.....Not saying they won't score.......just that we will control them overall........Pats should win this game hands down......

 

[Metaphors]

Based on this somewhat limited analysis, the Pats and Colts have had roughly equal difficulty in the competition they have faced. The Colts have played 1 top 10 pass offense, 6 in the "middle", and 1 at the bottom. This distribution also works out to be about average, more or less.

So the two teams' pass defenses both seem to be quite good.

I'm not sure your conclusions are sound. Even taking your measurement of passer rating, the only top-tier passing team the Colts have played is TB...and that is skewed by short passing, high accuracy and lack of interceptions (like the Jets except for Pennington's recent "killer int to end the game" frenzy). Nobody fears the Bucs passing attack.

Facing Garcia and a bunch of average Joes is not equal to facing Romo (with an 'R'), Palmer, Rivers and D.Anderson (made better by solid Brown's receiving threats).

I'm not saying that the Colt's pass D is bad. I'm just saying that there isn't enough evidence yet to make a determination. So at this point you have to take the #1 pass D rating with a serious grain of salt.

 

[He Ban Me]

Much has been made about the Colts having the #1 pass defense in the league...which they do at 165.4 ypg (Pats at #5 with 181.5 ypg). Here are the QBs the Colts have played against (in order of passer rating):

#2 Garrard (injured and replaced by Gray)
#7 Garcia
#16 Cutler
#17 Schaub
#22 Brees
#31 V.Young
UNR Testeverde/Carr

The Colts have faced 8 receivers in the top 50 in receiving yards (J.Galloway #12 and S.Smith #21 being the best) and have faced 2 teams with multiple top 50 receivers:

HOU - K.Walter #23, O.Daniels #31 and A.Davis #37
TB - J.Galloway #12 and I.Hilliard #26

The Pats have faced the following QBs:

Romo #5
D.Anderson #6
C.Palmer #11
P.Rivers #13
Pennington #15
J.Campbell #24
Lemon #28
Edwards #29

The Pats have faced 12 receivers in the top 50 in receiving yards (C.Johnson #2 and B.Edwards #3 being the best) and have faced 4 teams with multiple top 50 receivers:

DAL - T.Owens #14, J.Witten #15 and P.Crayton #35
CLE - B.Edwards #3 and K.Winslow #16
CIN - C.Johnson #2, TJ Housh #7
NYJ - Cotchery #9 and Coles #27

The Pats have faced passing attacks comparable to the Colts (DAL #3 and CIN #5...maybe even CLE at #9) while the best the Colts have faced is HOU at #4.

Looks like the Pats come into Sunday's game with more experience with top QBs and receiving tandems (including TEs with Winslow, Gates, Witten), so I think it is easier to set expectations on how they will perform. I really can't get a good bead on the Colts pass D since there is limited top-tier experience to go on.

Did you know that all your suck ass teams you play this year are also played by your East counterparts. Meaning that the teams YOU face get to feast on the suckiness that IS the Jets and Fins. All these sucky teams play each other, and wallow, or apparently, are exaulted in this suckiness. Seriously, Browns score what, 51 on bengals, and in the same game, the Bengals scored 45 on the Browns?? It a GD suck fest!!

 

[He Ban Me]

I have been saying this all along also......Indy's D has yet to play a TOP SHELF offense with a #1 QB..........they played Garrard, Testaverde, etc etc......NO ONE........Now we will see what their D can do against the most powerful offense in the league......This is not "homerism".....this is the simple truth....I don't think they have it to beat us.....unless we shoot ourselves in the foot over and over..........Our defense should be able to control Clark and Wayne...pretty well.....Not saying they won't score.......just that we will control them overall........Pats should win this game hands down......

There are 2 "Number 1" QB's in the League, well actually one, being Manning. Brady is now the beneficiary of

1.) The only guy in the League that can win a jump ball versus two (shorter) defenders
2.) Two pretty decent receivers who appear to do really well at gaining yards after the catch

Ok, Brady is good, he's a number 1, but it's he, Manning, and everyone else.

We faced Brees, you faced Palmer

We faced Garcia and Testeverde (2 established vets), you faced Pennington

We faced a host of green QBs (Schaub, Young, Gerrard, Grey, Cutler), you faced Anderson, Edwards, Romo, Campbell, Lemon, and Rivers

Tell me again where this HUGE disparity is? Can we agree that you can have the best WR in the world, but if the QB can't get it to him, he's useless??

 

[Metaphors]

Did you know that all your suck ass teams you play this year are also played by your East counterparts. Meaning that the teams YOU face get to feast on the suckiness that IS the Jets and Fins. All these sucky teams play each other, and wallow, or apparently, are exaulted in this suckiness. Seriously, Browns score what, 51 on bengals, and in the same game, the Bengals scored 45 on the Browns?? It a GD suck fest!!

That is actually a really good point. You have to temper the numbers with some amount of common sense. However, there is enough past evidence on the Bengals and Cowboys to make some judgements. They are both top-tier passing teams with top-tier talent at the skill positions. They are reasonable (not exact) representations of what the Pats are going to see on Sunday. In addition, the Browns and Chargers can throw some unique offensive talent on the field in the passing game.

The Colts really don't have any of this to evaluate. Steve Smith is a top talent, but the Colts had him surrounded with multiple defenders the whole game and the Panthers didn't have the QB or receivers to take advantage.

Bottom line, I think we learn a lot more about the Colts on Sunday (positive or negative) than we learn about the Pats. Just makes it all the more interesting...

 

[Satchboogie3]

Tell me again where this HUGE disparity is? Can we agree that you can have the best WR in the world, but if the QB can't get it to him, he's useless??

Thats not true. There have been 2 games where Moss didn't put up huge yardage. Thats because he was doubled or triple covered the entire game. In that case, it leaves other guys open, thus Brady is still throwing 300+ yards, just to guys that are wide open on the left/middle of the field. So Moss is VERY useful even when he doesn't get the ball. He doesn't need to catch a single pass to open up our offense.

 

[indycolts685]

That would be nice. I did that in a few posts earlier this year, but for points scored against the Pats' D.

@ Amnorix: Thanks for the lists; I went ahead and looked up the pass ratings for all the opponents and ranked them in order:

IND:
1 92.5
2 89.3
3 86.0
4 85.9
5 85.8
6 78.6
7 70.2

NE:
1 95.6
2 92.4
3 91.5
4 90.7
5 77.7
6 76.8
7 73.8
8 71.3

Not sure what it's supposed to mean, but there it is.

average for each team

Colts 84.04
Pats 83.72

pretty even