Keys to the SuperBowl 41.5 - A Colt Fan perspective!

[Metaphors]

Pats 3rd down offense = 49% (#3)
Colts 3rd down defense = 46% (#27)

Colts 3rd down offense = 54% (#1)
Pats 3rd down defense = 29% (#1)

If the Colts D can't get off the field, they can't win. And bear in mind that percentage is against some pathetic offenses.

 

[sebman2112]

That is the story in my opinion. I really think that people will be stunned, with the 2nd half of the AFCCG being their most recent memory. NE won't be able to shut down Manning, but they won't be rolling over for him either.

Yea, and Maroney seems to be 100% right now. We all know that wasn't the case heading into the AFCCG.

 

[rabthepat]

My keys - your team has no F-ing shot to win. NONE. We're going to kill you. Seriously. 10+ MOV.

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The last time we played them they did not have to deal with Welker, Moss, Stallworth, Seau, Thomas, Harrison and a healthy Seymour.

 

[TommyD4207]

Pats 3rd down defense = 29% (#1)

This stat is disgusting it's so good.

52-27 Patriots.

 

[indycolts685]

My keys - your team has no F-ing shot to win. NONE. We're going to kill you. Seriously. 10+ MOV.

wow a guy comes here to try and talk football and you act like a complete ass, good job, and trust me we have a shot we have more then a shot.

 

[COLT FAN]

wow a guy comes here to try and talk football and you act like a complete ass, good job, and trust me we have a shot we have more then a shot.

I came here to talk football because Colts play the Pats this week. Some talk smack. That is ok to me. I just ignore those. Also Pats are winning by huge margins so far and they have added good weapons makes fans confident that they will every game comfortably. My point is "They are the 3 time losers to Colts and they adjusted their roster & approach after the AFCCG loss". Colts just tweaked it since they were winners. Let us wait & see on sunday if PATS have done enough to beat the Colts or the Colts still can win. In my opinion this game as I said before is a +(-)10 points either way max.

Also stats are not going to show much. To those who rely on stats to predict the games, I just say "Matchups are much more indicative than stats".

I cann't wait for the game to start!!!

 

[jaytyme]

Also stats are not going to show much. To those who rely on stats to predict the games, I just say "Matchups are much more indicative than stats".

I cann't wait for the game to start!!!

The pats D is getting off the field 71% of the time on 3rd down (thanx Metaphors). That means the pats offense is getting another chance to score and move further ahead. If the pats continue this trend, the colts have no shot.

Unlike last year in the 2nd half, when the pats D was sick and gassed (because our offense could'nt convert), we will control the ball in the 2nd half. Thats what Washington was all about.

If the Colts dont convert early and often, this will be a blowout.

 

[godef]

1. Turnovers - Whoever wins this battle in my opinion would stand a much better chance of winning on sunday (I don't think +1 or -1 is winning though; at least 2 extra Turnovers).
2. Luck - This is what I call ball bouncing your way or lucky breaks like a kick out of bounds or able to pin the opposition inside 2 yard line etc.
3. Intangibles - These can never be a part of a team's plan.

What kind of "keys" are these? You've boiled it all done to Turnovers, Luck and/or Intangibles. Allow me to paraphrase: Intangibles, intangibles and/or intangibles. There is no meat to this analysis at all. Which makes this nothing but spin. OK, here's some meat: subconsciously, you fear this juggernaut will blow into Indy on Sunday and turn the Colts into horsemeat.

Come back when you have something more concrete to say.

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

Thanks for being respectful and all, but these are your "keys"??

Turnovers, luck and intangibles? ReallY?

My keys:

1. Stop the slot guy - you guys can't let Welker beat you, and we can't let Clark beat us.

2. Stop the run with the front 7 - Whoever has to bring a safety up first is in trouble

3. Pressure up the middle - Pats and Colts need to confuse the interior line with blitzes and stunts - otherwise the D's will get picked apart.

I'm with you here... but would add:

4. Keeping pressure off of the QB. IMHO, we need K. Brady and Light to really man up on Freeney so that Brady can continue to have time in the pocket.... on Indy's front, I believe that they need to determine where the extra is coming from (Colvin, AD, Vrabel, Harrison) and then get a hat on him so that Peyton can have time to get the ball out.

Can't wait for the game!

 

[COLT FAN]

I'm with you here... but would add:

4. Keeping pressure off of the QB. IMHO, we need K. Brady and Light to really man up on Freeney so that Brady can continue to have time in the pocket.... on Indy's front, I believe that they need to determine where the extra is coming from (Colvin, AD, Vrabel, Harrison) and then get a hat on him so that Peyton can have time to get the ball out.

Can't wait for the game!

Good point!!
I agree the team that can get the QB pressure consistently or on cruicial plays is sure to win.

This is not for you but directed at other PAT fans who say this will be blowout (& the only reason they give is the addition of 3 WRs +AT) -

By you saying "Pats will win huge and will be a blowot" - Is that your WISH or PREDICTION or Guarantee?? I don't get it. These are clearly two best teams in the NFL ; while PATS are blowing the teams so far, the other team COLTS have not lost a game since the last playoffs started and have not lost a home game for like two years now. It is good to be confident but this..........
Also for those who ask while PATS have gotten Moss et all what have Colts done? My answer is if you are SB Champions, how much change do you want in your team. Colts already have had good offense for a long time; sure we don't want to change that. The only loss on that side was Stokley who didn't play last season at all. On the defensive front Colts found the problem to be on the execution side and not on the personnel side, that is why when they started executing in playoffs, they won the SB41. This will be GREAT GAME.
Pats Offense vs Indy Defense & Indy Offense vs Pats defense ; both will be treat to watch.

I too cann't wait for the game to start!

 

[Metaphors]

Also stats are not going to show much. To those who rely on stats to predict the games, I just say "Matchups are much more indicative than stats".

Agree with you but that is hard to quantify for the Pats. Traditionally that has been easier for the Colts. Everyone knows what they do on offense and defense, but they do it anyway and win the matchups.

You can evaluate the matchup of Hobbs vs. Wayne, but that doesn't take into account zone or combo coverages. You can evaluate Moss vs. M.Jackson but I would doubt you will see them on an island at all during the game.

I think stats give a reasonable indication of if a team can just rely on matchups to win the game. The 3rd down stats tell me that neither defense should rely on winning matchups to be successful. If Brady and Manning can see the field effectively and get a good read on where the defense is, there may not be any punts or interceptions for either team.

Assuming that bogus penalties are not a factor (my big worry), I think that whichever defense disguises itself (coverages, blitzes, etc.) the best will likely win the game.

 

[ATippett56]

How about some key matchups instead?

Richard Seymour vs Tony Ugoh
Dwight Freeney vs Matt Light
Reggie Wayne vs Ellis Hobbs
Randy Moss vs Kelvin Hayden
Dallas Clark vs Rodney Harrison and/or Adalius Thomas
Wes Welker vs some Colts stiff

 

[ATippett56]

Just a reminder of how good the Patriots offense is ...........

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_999_2007_Defensive_Passer_Rating.html

"New England's statistical prision rape of the rest of the NFL is evident here in Defensive Passer Rating.

The Redskins entered Sunday's game against the Patriots with the best pass defense in football, as indicated by their 67.7 Defensive Passer Rating, No. 1 in the league.

But after one game being shredded by Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots passing game, Washington plummeted 10 whole spots to No. 11, and nearly 10 whole rating points to 76.2."

 

[COLT FAN]

Agree with you but that is hard to quantify for the Pats. Traditionally that has been easier for the Colts. Everyone knows what they do on offense and defense, but they do it anyway and win the matchups.

You can evaluate the matchup of Hobbs vs. Wayne, but that doesn't take into account zone or combo coverages. You can evaluate Moss vs. M.Jackson but I would doubt you will see them on an island at all during the game.

I think stats give a reasonable indication of if a team can just rely on matchups to win the game. The 3rd down stats tell me that neither defense should rely on winning matchups to be successful. If Brady and Manning can see the field effectively and get a good read on where the defense is, there may not be any punts or interceptions for either team.

Assuming that bogus penalties are not a factor (my big worry), I think that whichever defense disguises itself (coverages, blitzes, etc.) the best will likely win the game.

How about some key matchups instead?

Richard Seymour vs Tony Ugoh
Dwight Freeney vs Matt Light
Reggie Wayne vs Ellis Hobbs
Randy Moss vs Kelvin Hayden
Dallas Clark vs Rodney Harrison and/or Adalius Thomas
Wes Welker vs some Colts stiff

ATippett56 got it. Stats are fine only & only if both teams have played their equals. In my eyes neither Colts nor Pats have met their match yet! SD is playing good now but when they played Pats in the 2nd week they were deers on headlight. Same for some teams for Colts; Saints were great offense last season but they suxed when we played them. So all these stats have been (including success on 3rd down which is a crucial stat) have been built up teams which don't match up well with Colts or Pats. What Pats did is they played their game at a high level. Which I can see from the score board. Colts also if you watch the game tape (not just the score board) can see won games easily even without 5 starters. Why? Becuase both of our teams played teams that were not in our class. That is all. These stats for both teams are coming from playing against JV teams (sorry I am not insulting other teams but that is what it is right now) or teams (SD & SAINTS) that played like JV when we played them. I betcha, when Colts play the Chargers next week, they will be a totally different team than in week 2. Chargers have improved much since week 2.

Also there have been additions & subtractions on both sides. A fan of the team would always argue that their changes are great and the other team lost more than what they gained. I say "That is why they play the game".

Getcha Popcorn ready

Penalties (not the Zebra induced ones) will be crucial in this game. Any yards lost for offense for both teams would put great pressure on the QB since both defenses are good.



p.s : I too hope the Zebra don't decide the game.

 

[COLT FAN]

Just a reminder of how good the Patriots offense is ...........

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_999_2007_Defensive_Passer_Rating.html

"New England's statistical prision rape of the rest of the NFL is evident here in Defensive Passer Rating.

The Redskins entered Sunday's game against the Patriots with the best pass defense in football, as indicated by their 67.7 Defensive Passer Rating, No. 1 in the league.

But after one game being shredded by Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots passing game, Washington plummeted 10 whole spots to No. 11, and nearly 10 whole rating points to 76.2."

Redskins defensive stats prior to Pats game came from playing whom? I ask?
Yes, Skins have a good defense, but their offense sux. When they play a great team like Pats or Colts (or even Giants or Boys) they would give a lot of yards and scores.

Go Ahead & keep fooling yourself with those stats. I am not going to. That is your privelage. Read my previous post for why I think those stats are meaningless for this game.

 

[bishbash]

I say now itself the team that wins this Sunday is clearly the #1 team in the NFL and barring injuries will win the SB42.

I will respectfully disagree w/ this statement. If the Pats should somehow lose this game, I believe the only reason will be that they started hearing the whispers that they might be one of the best teams of all time and lost focus. A loss to the Colts in this game would ensure a refocusing for the rest of the season, including a butt-kicking of the Colts in the playoffs, which is the only win over the Colt's I really care about.

 

[bishbash]

My hats off to the Cheats, they look awesome this year and if they actually do win the SuperBowl it would be their first win without cheating to do it.

:violent:
(This silly/disrespectful post encapsulates BB & company's reasoning for running up any and all scores)

 

[COLT FAN]

I will respectfully disagree w/ this statement. If the Pats should somehow lose this game, I believe the only reason will be that they started hearing the whispers that they might be one of the best teams of all time and lost focus. A loss to the Colts in this game would ensure a refocusing for the rest of the season, including a butt-kicking of the Colts in the playoffs, which is the only win over the Colt's I really care about.

It is quite possible the losing team this sunday can win the SB. what happens in my opinion is the team that wins this sunday (assuming it gets HFA ofcourse; since up by 1.5 games) is its chances of winning in the playoffs goes up and about 2/3rd chance. That is all. The losing team still has 1/3 chance to win in playoffs.

What you said for PATS could happen for Colts also. Also when you started "respectfully disagree" how you ended it with "Bxxxx Kxxxx"

 

[Metaphors]

Go Ahead & keep fooling yourself with those stats. I am not going to. That is your privelage. Read my previous post for why I think those stats are meaningless for this game.

Stats can be misleading, but are not meaningless for any game. I find your exercise to be fairly silly. "Freeney vs. Light, edge Colts" I would agree if Light were left alone with Freeney and Brady took a 7 step drop, Freeney would win that matchup. I know that, you know that, Belichick knows that. Why on earth would he allow that matchup to occur? He wouldn't.

You can play that game with every matchup. Think Bethea will be providing help over the top to Haydin and Jackson with Moss? Think Keiaho will be shading Welker on slant routes?

Matchups don't determine the outcome of the game...they determine the gameplan. Steve Smith would wipe the floor with any DB the Colts have. Did he last week? Nope. Why? Because that matchup never happened.

 

[Denzera]

Pats 3rd down offense = 49% (#3)
Colts 3rd down defense = 46% (#27)

Colts 3rd down offense = 54% (#1)
Pats 3rd down defense = 29% (#1)

If the Colts D can't get off the field, they can't win. And bear in mind that percentage is against some pathetic offenses.

Hey, how about someone going through and calculating 3rd-down to 1st-down ratio? i.e., get a sense of how often each offense has to go to a 3rd down to pick up a new 1st, or how often a defense can get to a 3rd down. These numbers are meaningless without a sense of how frequently a 3rd down stop comes into play.

each box score has # of first downs and stats on 3rd down conversions, so getting a stat for "% of Down sets that go to a 3rd Down" probably wouldn't be that hard.