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Another reason the Pats-Colts match-up this week is so fascinating is the fact that it’s a rematch of a huge game that was played so recently, but there have been so many changes, particularly on the Pats’ side, that it’s been hard to find analysis that isn’t based on outdated perceptions. So, I thought I’d take a look at last year’s game, and how the teams have changed since then.
One thing that jumps out when you look at the stats from the AFC title game was just how badly the Pats were outplayed according to the stat sheet. The Colts had 32 first downs to the Pats’ 17; they outgained the Pats 455 yards to 319, with edges in net rushing and passing 125-93 and 330-226, respectively. The Pats did not score an offensive touchdown over the last 40 minutes of the game, managing just a pair of field goals during that time.
In fact, the Pats only averaged 24 ppg throughout last season. How dramatically the offense has been transformed has been well-covered, but it’s worth looking at again: the Pats’ leap from 24 ppg to 41.4 is really remarkable.
The Pats’ defense, meanwhile, has managed to stay on par with the ppg level of last year, when opponents managed 14.8 against the Pats, compared to 15.9 this year. This is one example where the numbers really don’t tell the story, though. The Pats’ defense has naturally lost its intensity at times this year, as the team has been up 30-40 points per game. With the addition of Thomas, Harrison being back and healthy, and a secondary that is (knock wood) so far managing to stay on the field, I don’t think anyone would argue that this year’s defensive squad isn’t markedly better than last year’s.
The Colts, meanwhile, have continued to score points this year on par with years past, including 2006 (their average ppg is actually up about five points). At this point, the Colts’ offense is a known quantity—unlike the Pats’ offensive package, which has an entirely new arsenal for the Colts to digest, the Pats’ players and coaches know the Colts personnel quite well. As always, the key is stopping them, but again, the Pats’ defense right now is quite simply a different one than last January.
As far as the Colts’ defense goes, they’ve improved from last year overall, shaving nearly a TD per game off their average. Keep in mind, though, that improving on last year’s regular season defense isn’t hard to do. A better measuring stick is the post-season, when a healthy Bob Sanders made—and continues to make—a big difference for the entire squad. But again, this is the defense the Pats saw in January, while the Pats’ defense, like the offense, has several different, and improved, pieces.
So how does this break down? It is, as everyone knows, a game between the two best teams in the league, far away. And that includes the Colts’ defense, which, shockingly, might be the best the Patriots see. But we’re talking about an offense that is shattering records, so the points will come. Will they come for the Colts? There certainly won’t be any letdown for this game from the Pats’ defense. No, I think we’ll see Manning walking off the field with that look quite a few times, tugging off his chin strap.
The motivation of the Pats this year is well-documented, and in many ways it’s been building to this game. After the bye week of course, it’ll build to something else, something bigger. But this is obviously IT for now. The game might be close, and it might be safer to think that way, but I just don’t see it.
My prediction is that the Patriots take it going away, 40-17.
One thing that jumps out when you look at the stats from the AFC title game was just how badly the Pats were outplayed according to the stat sheet. The Colts had 32 first downs to the Pats’ 17; they outgained the Pats 455 yards to 319, with edges in net rushing and passing 125-93 and 330-226, respectively. The Pats did not score an offensive touchdown over the last 40 minutes of the game, managing just a pair of field goals during that time.
In fact, the Pats only averaged 24 ppg throughout last season. How dramatically the offense has been transformed has been well-covered, but it’s worth looking at again: the Pats’ leap from 24 ppg to 41.4 is really remarkable.
The Pats’ defense, meanwhile, has managed to stay on par with the ppg level of last year, when opponents managed 14.8 against the Pats, compared to 15.9 this year. This is one example where the numbers really don’t tell the story, though. The Pats’ defense has naturally lost its intensity at times this year, as the team has been up 30-40 points per game. With the addition of Thomas, Harrison being back and healthy, and a secondary that is (knock wood) so far managing to stay on the field, I don’t think anyone would argue that this year’s defensive squad isn’t markedly better than last year’s.
The Colts, meanwhile, have continued to score points this year on par with years past, including 2006 (their average ppg is actually up about five points). At this point, the Colts’ offense is a known quantity—unlike the Pats’ offensive package, which has an entirely new arsenal for the Colts to digest, the Pats’ players and coaches know the Colts personnel quite well. As always, the key is stopping them, but again, the Pats’ defense right now is quite simply a different one than last January.
As far as the Colts’ defense goes, they’ve improved from last year overall, shaving nearly a TD per game off their average. Keep in mind, though, that improving on last year’s regular season defense isn’t hard to do. A better measuring stick is the post-season, when a healthy Bob Sanders made—and continues to make—a big difference for the entire squad. But again, this is the defense the Pats saw in January, while the Pats’ defense, like the offense, has several different, and improved, pieces.
So how does this break down? It is, as everyone knows, a game between the two best teams in the league, far away. And that includes the Colts’ defense, which, shockingly, might be the best the Patriots see. But we’re talking about an offense that is shattering records, so the points will come. Will they come for the Colts? There certainly won’t be any letdown for this game from the Pats’ defense. No, I think we’ll see Manning walking off the field with that look quite a few times, tugging off his chin strap.
The motivation of the Pats this year is well-documented, and in many ways it’s been building to this game. After the bye week of course, it’ll build to something else, something bigger. But this is obviously IT for now. The game might be close, and it might be safer to think that way, but I just don’t see it.
My prediction is that the Patriots take it going away, 40-17.
