strength of schedule fallacy

[everlong]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_987_2007_Quality_Standings.html

INDY vs. Quality Opponents:

22-20 at Tennessee
29-7 at Jacksonville
31-7 at Carolina

NE vs. Quality Opponents:

38-14 over San Diego
34-17 over Cleveland
48-27 at Dallas
52-7 over Washington

If you were to rank there 7 teams from top to bottom San Diego and Dallas are better then any of Indy's opponents and Cleveland and Washington are better then Carolina.

Granted the Pats have played more really bad teams, IE Jets, Fins, but their top end schedule is also better.

 

[Dagg]

Wow its hard to call a team with Testaverde and Dave Carr quality, also the fact Quinn Gray played most of the Jville game, wants to make me discount both of those from the qulaity category.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Wow its hard to call a team with Testaverde and Dave Carr quality, also the fact Quinn Gray played most of the Jville game, wants to make me discount both of those from the qulaity category.

The Colts knocked out Garrard. They earned the right to play against Gray.

 

[Satchboogie3]

I don't understand these peoples logic. On Cold Pizza grr.. First Take this morning, they were saying that the Colts had an edge having played in closer games and were implying that it meant they faced harder, more "challenging" teams. The Pats, on contrary, haven't played in a close game yet, so they believed the Colts had the edge.

So if the Colts player weaker teams, but the game ends up being close, it is a better "test" of tallent than when NE blowsout a team that is better than the team Indy played...

Any person with any sort of intelect would realize that the Patriots have blown out GOOD teams, while the Colts have had close games with mediocre teams. Some how, I just don't see how all these analysts are getting so confused. There is a reason why we haven't had a close game, and it has nothing to do with how "tough" our opponents were. We are THAT much better than even GOOD teams, GREAT teams.

 

[BelichickFan]

The Colts knocked out Garrard. They earned the right to play against Gray.

Not sure I'd phrase it that way as the Patriots were called dirty for hitting Losman low.

Regardless, with the QB they faced they are barely "quality opponents".

 

[Rob0729]

The Colts knocked out Garrard. They earned the right to play against Gray.

Wow! A Colts' defender takes out Garrard's knee and the Colts "earned the right to play Gray"? Do you really mean that? So all we need to do is keep on trying to go for Manning's knees on Sunday and we may earn the right to play Jim Sorgi? I'm not suggesting that the Colts tried to injure Garrard or it was a cheap shot by the way.

You don't earn the right to play a back up QB by injuring the starting QB. To even believe that philosophy is more than a little off.

You only earn the right to face a back up QB by making the starting QB play so bad that the head coach pulls him. No team earns anything by injuring another player.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Not a lick of that matters Sunday. The better team will win.

 

[He Ban Me]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_987_2007_Quality_Standings.html

INDY vs. Quality Opponents:

22-20 at Tennessee
29-7 at Jacksonville
31-7 at Carolina

NE vs. Quality Opponents:

38-14 over San Diego
34-17 over Cleveland
48-27 at Dallas
52-7 over Washington

If you were to rank there 7 teams from top to bottom San Diego and Dallas are better then any of Indy's opponents and Cleveland and Washington are better then Carolina.

Granted the Pats have played more really bad teams, IE Jets, Fins, but their top end schedule is also better.

Hummmm. So, if N.O. keeps winning, do we get to count that as a "quality opponent" later in the year??


No "fallacy" about it. So far, the SOS is weak. However, NE Awesomes are awesome enough to conclude that regardless of opponents, they are awesome.

Here's SAGS latest rankings and SOS.

NE no doubt will move up the ladder, with future games versus Colts, Ravens, Steelers, and Giants.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl07.htm?loc=interstitialskip

 

[patsox23]

Hummmm. So, if N.O. keeps winning, do we get to count that as a "quality opponent" later in the year??


No "fallacy" about it. So far, the SOS is weak. However, NE Awesomes are awesome enough to conclude that regardless of opponents, they are awesome.

Here's SAGS latest rankings and SOS.

NE no doubt will move up the ladder, with future games versus Colts, Ravens, Steelers, and Giants.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl07.htm?loc=interstitialskip

The New England Awesomes are going to blow the doors off your colts next week. Bank on it. Seriously. I've been saying it for WEEKS and 7 days from now I doubt we'll see you here anymore. Pats by more than ten.

 

[Solaris]

Hummmm. So, if N.O. keeps winning, do we get to count that as a "quality opponent" later in the year??

Such as? The 1-0 Chargers at the time? The undefeated Cowboys at the time? The 4-2 Redskins with that "touted" 5th ranked defense at the time?

 

[FrontSeven]

Cold Facts are cold.

The Patriots are hot.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Such as? The 1-0 Chargers at the time? The undefeated Cowboys at the time? The 4-2 Redskins with that "touted" 5th ranked defense at the time?

What your missing is that journalists believe that if we blowout a team, they can't be good. They just can't credit us as being THAT good.

The Chargers got talked up, we destroyed them, they called them pretenders.

The Cowboys got talked up, we destroyed them, they called them the weaker NFC.

The Redskins got talked up (Great D, trap game, blah blah), we destroyed them, they called them, well, actually all they have talked about that game is us "RUNNING UP THE SCORE!!!" AHHH Bad bad boys!!! We embarrassed them!!! How dare we embarrass grown men!!!!...

Everything is, we exposed this, we exposed that. Oh they aren't that good at this, and that, and that. NO, we are THAT good that even a great D can't stop us.

What are they going to say after we blowout the Colts? The Colts aren't a good team? We still (after beating Colts) haven't faced a good team... I mean, come on.

 

[Rob0729]

Who really cares about SOS when you are comparing two teams that are undefeated and both have been crushing their competition for the most part. We beat Washington 52-7. Does it really matter if they aren't as good as the Carolina Panthers? They are both NFL teams.

Other than the Pats and Colts and the Rams, Dolphins, and Jets; there isn't much difference between the best and worst teams in this league. Anyone who wants to discredit what the Pats have done so far based on SOS don't have a clue about football. If it was the competition, these teams would be losing by this much a lot.

 

[Satchboogie3]

What I don't see the journalist mention is the fact that Indy had a pretty horrible 1st half against the Panthers yesterday. I mean, their D was attrotious (how do you give up a 90yd drive to Testaverde...) and their O was shut down.

Meanwhile, the Patriots were DOMINATING a MUCH better RedSkins team right out of the gate. Lets not fool ourselves here. The Redskins DO have a top ranked defense, and they have possibly a decent offense. The Panthers defense is pretty bad and their offense is horrible (They have Testaverde as their starting QB. Enough said.).

So lets see, we absolutely dominated a much better team for 60 min, while the Colts struggled for the first 30 min against a terrible offensive/defensive team. And haven't we seen some close Colts games, and some very slow starts?

I'm willing to bet that if the Colts defense starts even close to as slow as they have this season, we are going to have a big lead very quickly. And we all know that we have a far better D than anything they have faced yet. Combine that with us chewing away the clock on unstopable drives, they don't have a very good shot at coming back in the second.

Thats the game right there. If Indy doesn't come out hot, they are done. So far, there is nothing to make me believe they will come out of the gates hot. They haven't done that yet this year.

 

[emoney_33]

Lets just throw out the whole quality opponents thing this year. The NFL is comprised of the Pats, the Colts and then everyone else. The Chargers might get back up to competitive level and the Steelers are iffy, but other than that, it's just us two that's it. It's a two team league. The rest of the league goes from terrible to barely competent (compared to NE and IND that is).

 

[He Ban Me]

The New England Awesomes are going to blow the doors off your colts next week. Bank on it. Seriously. I've been saying it for WEEKS and 7 days from now I doubt we'll see you here anymore. Pats by more than ten.

I'll be here with bells on regardless. FWIW, this game on Sunday doesn't eliminate either team from playoff contention. A leg up for the winner, but most likely, one will still have to beat the other come January.

 

[He Ban Me]

What I don't see the journalist mention is the fact that Indy had a pretty horrible 1st half against the Panthers yesterday. I mean, their D was attrotious (how do you give up a 90yd drive to Testaverde...) and their O was shut down.

Meanwhile, the Patriots were DOMINATING a MUCH better RedSkins team right out of the gate. Lets not fool ourselves here. The Redskins DO have a top ranked defense, and they have possibly a decent offense. The Panthers defense is pretty bad and their offense is horrible (They have Testaverde as their starting QB. Enough said.).

So lets see, we absolutely dominated a much better team for 60 min, while the Colts struggled for the first 30 min against a terrible offensive/defensive team. And haven't we seen some close Colts games, and some very slow starts?

I'm willing to bet that if the Colts defense starts even close to as slow as they have this season, we are going to have a big lead very quickly. And we all know that we have a far better D than anything they have faced yet. Combine that with us chewing away the clock on unstopable drives, they don't have a very good shot at coming back in the second.

Thats the game right there. If Indy doesn't come out hot, they are done. So far, there is nothing to make me believe they will come out of the gates hot. They haven't done that yet this year.

Tell me again HOW MANY of those highly touted Skin defenders were injured and played little to no minutes???

 

[He Ban Me]

Such as? The 1-0 Chargers at the time? The undefeated Cowboys at the time? The 4-2 Redskins with that "touted" 5th ranked defense at the time?

So why was Cleveland on the list??

 

[Metaphors]

INDY vs. Quality Opponents: 22-2...ther statistical nonsense to muddy the water.

 

[He Ban Me]

I live in NC and I can vouch for the fact that the Panthers are not a good team. They show up in spots but are maddeningly inconsistent...even from one drive to the next.

TEN and JAX are considered "quality" due to the perceived strenght of the AFC south. Here is the AFC south schedule minus intradivision games:

TEN
===
W @NO 31-14
W ATL 20-13
L @TB 10-13
W OAK 13-9

JAX
===
W ATL 13-7
W @DEN 23-14
W @KC 17-7
W @TB 24-23

HOU
===
W KC 20-3
W @CAR 34-21
L @ATL 16-26
W MIA 22-19
L @SD 10-35

So the AFC south minus Indy is 10-3 against non-division foes...winning by an average score of 19-16. Which teams on this list will be going to the playoffs? SD (crushed HOU) and one of NO/CAR/TB/ATL just because someone has to represent the putrid NFC south. Denver might (and regardless that was a good road win for JAX) but that is all. Only SD and TB have positive net scoring on the year.

I'm sorry, but that is not screaming anything but "average" to me. And Indy squeaked by TEN and HOU before crushing JAX and "the mighty" Quinn Gray.

If you take out the points from the Colts/Pats games, the net points for non-division opponents looks like this:

IND
===
TB +32
CAR +13
NO +1
DEN -40

NE
===
DAL +90
SD +67
WAS +34
CLE +8
CIN -13

So this strength-of-schedule advantage for the Colts is misleading at best. Neither team should lose a division game. For non-division games, the Pats have played a FAR superior schedule, and by the end of the season it will be even more pronounced.

The Colts are obviously a top team and stand a good chance of beating the Pats on Sunday. Whichever team has the best gameplan and the cleanest execution will win. Really don't need strength of schedule or other statistical nonsense to muddy the water.

As long as you can "vouch" then let it be said


I know the Panthers are lucky to be 4-3. That said, a D-line of Rucker, Peppers, Jenkins, and that fat tub of goo can be imposing. If they decide to come and play, they can wreak havoc. They are underachievers and Fox will be shown the door soon.


Colts #12 S.O.S.
Pats #22 S.O.S.