Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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The Pats are 0-6 in red zone stops this year and that has been about the only downer for most people so far this year. I looked a little closer at all the opponent TD drives to see if there were any disturbing trends within the trend...
Jets (1st) - Down 7-0, 10 play, 66 yd, 6:22, 4 plays in red zone
Jets (2nd) - Down 28-7, 9 play, 70 yd, 4:42, 4 plays in red zone
SD (1st) - Down 24-0, 16 play, 72 yd, 8:17, 7 plays in red zone
SD (2nd) - Down 31-7, 8 play, 82 yd, 3:08, 2 plays in red zone
Buf - Down 3-0, 12 play, 80 yd, 6:42, 5 plays in red zone
Cin - Down 10-0, 5 play, 35 yd, 2:25, 1 play in red zone
Couple of things I noticed:
- No FG attempts by Jets, SD or BUF
- No TDs scored from outside the red zone
- Pats leading before all 6 drives, significantly in 3 of them
- 3 drives (Jets 2nd, SD 2nd, Cin) did not have a 3rd down in the red zone
Next I looked at the 3rd/4th down conversions made in the red zone by the Jets (1st), SD (1st) and Buf:
Jets : 3rd and 1 at the 16 = QB sneak
- Hard to stop a QB sneak
Jets : 3rd and 6 at the 7 = Coles swing pass for TD
- Pats out of position on this one. Ball was in the air a looooooong time.
SD : 3rd and 4 at the 12 = Gates short middle pass
- Gates is pretty good
SD : 3rd and G at the 4 = Tomlinson swing pass, stopped short
- Nice stop here, but SD down 24-0 so....
SD : 4th and G at the 1 = Neal short pass for TD
- Not much you can do about that.
Buf : 3rd and 3 at the 15 = Gaines swing pass
- Didn't see the play, so no comment.
Buf : 3rd and G at the 8 = Lynch run for TD
- Very disappointing. Broke multiple tackles. Buf almost conceding a FG.
Conclusions? I didn't see anything to worry about here except for 2 plays: Coles 1st TD and the Lynch run. The other drives can be explained by the Pats having big leads (opposition desperate, conservative defense) or Cincy only having to go 1 red zone yard after the Brady pick. Not a large sample of data to go on, but I'm not losing any sleep over it.
Asante's pick on Monday doesn't count as a red zone stop, even though the change of possesion happened at the 2 yard line. I'll count that as an "unofficial" stop.
Jets (1st) - Down 7-0, 10 play, 66 yd, 6:22, 4 plays in red zone
Jets (2nd) - Down 28-7, 9 play, 70 yd, 4:42, 4 plays in red zone
SD (1st) - Down 24-0, 16 play, 72 yd, 8:17, 7 plays in red zone
SD (2nd) - Down 31-7, 8 play, 82 yd, 3:08, 2 plays in red zone
Buf - Down 3-0, 12 play, 80 yd, 6:42, 5 plays in red zone
Cin - Down 10-0, 5 play, 35 yd, 2:25, 1 play in red zone
Couple of things I noticed:
- No FG attempts by Jets, SD or BUF
- No TDs scored from outside the red zone
- Pats leading before all 6 drives, significantly in 3 of them
- 3 drives (Jets 2nd, SD 2nd, Cin) did not have a 3rd down in the red zone
Next I looked at the 3rd/4th down conversions made in the red zone by the Jets (1st), SD (1st) and Buf:
Jets : 3rd and 1 at the 16 = QB sneak
- Hard to stop a QB sneak
Jets : 3rd and 6 at the 7 = Coles swing pass for TD
- Pats out of position on this one. Ball was in the air a looooooong time.
SD : 3rd and 4 at the 12 = Gates short middle pass
- Gates is pretty good
SD : 3rd and G at the 4 = Tomlinson swing pass, stopped short
- Nice stop here, but SD down 24-0 so....
SD : 4th and G at the 1 = Neal short pass for TD
- Not much you can do about that.
Buf : 3rd and 3 at the 15 = Gaines swing pass
- Didn't see the play, so no comment.
Buf : 3rd and G at the 8 = Lynch run for TD
- Very disappointing. Broke multiple tackles. Buf almost conceding a FG.
Conclusions? I didn't see anything to worry about here except for 2 plays: Coles 1st TD and the Lynch run. The other drives can be explained by the Pats having big leads (opposition desperate, conservative defense) or Cincy only having to go 1 red zone yard after the Brady pick. Not a large sample of data to go on, but I'm not losing any sleep over it.
Asante's pick on Monday doesn't count as a red zone stop, even though the change of possesion happened at the 2 yard line. I'll count that as an "unofficial" stop.
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