Why the Pats should be concerned about Cincy's offense

[FlyingElvis75]

Hi all...longtime lurker here, just thought I'd share some thoughts on the upcoming game vs. the Bengals.

Below are major defensive stats for the Pats so far:

Stat (NFL Rank)
Points per Game: 11.7 (2nd)
Total Yards per Game: 207 (1st)
Pass Yards per Game: 133 (2nd)
Rush Yards per Game: 74 (4th)
First Downs per Game: 14 (2nd)

As we know, those are pretty nice, but how much do they mean, especially in terms of rankings? The first thing many people do when they see gaudy stats like that is to question the quality of the opposition.

The Bills are obviously in bad shape, but the media has made a lot of the fact that the Jets and Chargers were playoff teams last year, and they especially emphasize that SD was on top of the league and had very little player turnover. But we all know that last year means squat this year, so what are they REALLY like this year?

Well, one thing to look at is how the Jets, Chargers, and Bills have played against opponents other than the Pats. The following are the offensive stats for the Jets, Chargers, and Bills in the six games in which they have NOT played NE, as well as what their NFL ranking would be if they were a single team:

Pts/G: 16.5 (25th)
TY/G: 294 (25th)
PY/G: 203 (20th)
RY/G: 91 (22nd)
FD/G: 18 (19th)

Not exactly elite numbers there - in fact, they're around the bottom of the league in every category. In short, our opponents' offenses have been terrible so far this year, even when we're not playing them. Yes, the Bills suck and will drag any average down, but the averages for the Jets and Chargers alone are not much better:

Pts/G: 20.5 (17th)
TY/G: 339 (16th)
PY/G: 256 (10th)
RY/G: 83 (28th)
FD/G: 21 (5th)

Now take a look at Cincinnati's offense through three games:

Pts/G: 31 (4th)
TY/G: 393 (5th)
PY/G: 301 (2nd)
RY/G: 92 (21st)
FD/G: 23 (2nd)

It seems like our D has looked good so far in some part because the competition has been pretty awful. Granted, the Bengals have played mostly cream puffs so far and the Chargers have had probably the toughest schedule of anyone on this list, but it seems like Monday may show us whether our D can stand up to a real test (without Seymour and Harrison).

But we probably all figured that, anyway.

On the bright side, the D has made those opponents' offenses look even worse than they otherwise are...they've allowed 4.8 fewer Pts/G, 87/70/17 fewer Total/Pass/Rush Yds/G, and 4 fewer FD/G.

 

[SVN]

i think our secondary has a big test this week

 

[BelichickFan]

No doubt we won't be pitching a shutout next week. However, those numbers are a little inflated by the 51-45 shootout the Bengals ended up with against the Browns - I don't think either teams' offense is as good or defense is as bad as that game makes them look.

 

[jbb9s]

Some good research there!

It should be interesting to see if Hobbs or Asante match up on Ocho Cinco.

 

[BelichickFan]

We did fine against them a year ago :

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=261001004

Their height worries me but the pure matchup of a power running game and downfield passing game worries me less than teams that rely on short to medium passing.

 

[RPCity]

Shouldn't you, by that same logic, look at the defenses Cinci has played against so far and see how they've played thus far against the other two teams they have each faced?

 

[BelichickFan]

Shouldn't you, by that same logic, look at the defenses Cinci has played against so far and see how they've played thus far against the other two teams they have each faced?

They've played the 8th (Baltimore), 25th (Seattle), 31st (Cleveland) defenses - although with only 3 games in the samples are awfully small and largely (1/3) influenced by the game vs. Cincy or NE.

 

[Imperator]

the way I see it, the Offense compliments the Defense and vice versa. Cincy has a good offense, but their D is trash. Whereas the Pats are far more balanced on both sides of the ball. So even though you can paint it as strong O vs strong D. it really wouldn't matter much when we're driving it down the field at will, whilst the Bengals have a hard time moving against us. Besides, I'm willing to bet that our run defense is gonna make them one dimensional anyway.

 

[khayos]

I think we have all the respect in the world for Chad Johnson and TJ makes that WR corps a real threat. We haven't faced a real WR corps yet.

 

[patsox23]

Cincy's a really tough offense, OBVIOUSLY, but - it's worth noting that the small sample-size nature of ALL of these stats make them somewhat grain-of-salt-y. For example, a full 1/3 of the numbers for our opponents are there because WE played them and shut them down (or torched them, as the case may be).

I think at this time of year, it's best just to hope we continue to look good, and hope that good defense generally stops good offense. Another way to look at it - what's the least number of points you can see THIS Pats offense getting against that putrid Bengal D? Say...27? 30? That's if we play terribly (or their D plays out of their heads and above their average).

Okay, so the offense gets 27 points. Are we seriously thinking that we won't be able to keep Cincy from scoring 28 points? I know I'm not. We win.

 

[PATRIOT64]

I think we can all agree that Cincy will score more than 14 that NE has given up in 1 game so far so the obvious thing is that we have to score in bunches to beat the Bengals,28 points will not be enough to win this game IMO

Will this game be like the Cleveland/Cincy game of near 100 points? -NO

But something like say....38-35 is not out of the question,and if its 38 I hope its NE again.

 

[unoriginal]

I think we have all the respect in the world for Chad Johnson and TJ makes that WR corps a real threat. We haven't faced a real WR corps yet.

The Jets had a perfectly respectible receiving corps. And a better tight end.

The key to stopping the Bengals is interceptions. Palmer throws to his two star wideouts almost exclusively, and many of those are just long chucks into double coverage. If the secondary demonstates ball skills this game will be over fast.

Their O-line isn't very good either, if Seattle can stop their ground game.

 

[frankiesfly]

to make the long story short..........Palmer, CJ, Housh-man.

 

[letekro]

It also should be pointed out that against the one good D they have played, they benefitted from 6 baltimore turnovers.

On the other hand, we shouldn't rely on last year's game b/c Palmer was playing his second or third game after major knee surgery, and clearly wasn't the same player.

 

[JJDChE]

I think we can all agree that Cincy will score more than 14....

I think there's a pretty decent shot that we hold them to 14 or less.

We beat them 38-13 last year.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

We beat them 38-13 last year.

And didn't Plamer have some fancy quote after last year's game about they were the better team or something like that?

 

[FlyingElvis75]

They've played the 8th (Baltimore), 25th (Seattle), 31st (Cleveland) defenses - although with only 3 games in the samples are awfully small and largely (1/3) influenced by the game vs. Cincy or NE.

Yes, the sample sizes are WAY too small for any sort of "real" statistical analysis.

@ RPCity: Yes, you could look at the defenses Cincy has played...but then you'd probably want to look at the defenses that NYJ/SD/BUF has played, and the other offenses that those teams played, and then maybe the defenses that those offenses played, etc...turns into a big job pretty quickly! Anyway, I was only grouping by the "Game vs. Patriots?" variable and the "Is Cincinnati?" variable. The Cincy games all have a value of "N" for the former, which is all I cared about above...

I feel that if we can really stifle the Bengals offense - make them look like the Chargers or Jets did - that will be a pretty good indication that our D has a stronger influence on the outcome than an opponents' O. Which would be encouraging if it keeps up into the Indy and Pittsburgh games.

Either way, I'd predict Patriots 38, Cincy...less than 38.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Last years game is not a good example. Palmer was coming off that leg injury and was not yet 100%. He is fully healed physically and mentally. Our D never peaks till the end of the season. I don't expect to hold the Bengals in their own building to 14 points. More like 24 or more.

Pats should be able to out score this team in a shoot out with the new improved offense. TD's not FG attempts are the key here. Think back to the high scoring Colts-Pats games of a few years back. Expect that.

 

[Grizzafted]

They're going to have to shift gears for this one. They can't just play the spread offense, throw the ball up to Moss and expect the Defense to be on the field every fifteen minutes. I think Maroney and Morris get the bulk of the offensive plays and we run a more ball-control Charlie Weiss style pass attack.

I'm a little worried about this one. Last year our Achilles heel was defending the vertical pass. We haven't been tested there yet because none of the teams we've played have run that style of offense. I think this one is a lot closer than people think, and there is a good chance the Pats lose.

 

[borg]

Based on the previous three games, there is a 66.66% chance that the Patriots will knock out the Cincy quarterback.