How Pats Built: 2000 to 2007

[Vern]

I've been tracking the Pats roster makeup for a few years now (originally this was spurred to debunk insinuation that Borges made that all the SB teams were really a product of mostly guys left over by Parcells). I haven't posted them here yet, but here are the updated results for 2007.

Note: I do not limit myself to the opening day 53 man roster. My criterion is that a player is on the roster for a significant period of time during the season, or that they contributed something (e.g. a starter who goes on IR in Week 3 would count, but so would a guy like M. Hill who was hardly ever active, but on the roster for a long long time). I never bothered to define rock solid criterion, but the fringe guys don't skew the number that badly. In 02 and 03 when I first started doing this, there was tremendous "throughput" of players, and I wanted to capture that. Anyway, I present charts based on total players, and on percent of roster so you can decide. The numbers will drift a bit as well during the season, but I keep updating. For example, right now I'm including all the PUP players.

Finally, some have contended that the fringe players skew the FA spots in here, but it's not been so to date. From time to time I go back and filter down just to players who saw time on the field or to just starters, or whatever, and the proportions year to year have held up. If/when I do that at the end of 07, we can check again.

Now for the results...

 

[Vern]

Roster Makeup by Percentage

Roster by percentage in attached image

 

[Vern]

Roster Makeup - Total Players

Roster makeup, total players

 

[Vern]

Observations

1. We've ALWAYS had a way larger percentage of Free Agents than we're typically given credit for. We may not make a splash for the top guys all the time, but we have lots of UDFAs, and middle class FAs like Kyle Brady, Heath Evans, Chad Scott and so on. We have more top FAs that typically noted as well (Harrison, Colvin, Thomas, etc.)

2. The Draft percentage of the team has steadily grown, but the best years (take 04 as the best right now) usually don't have the draft percentage going much beyond 40%. A constant influx of "veterans" to balance the draft seems to be a key part of BB's team building strategy.

3. The lack of FA additions in 06 really was a one year abberation, not the culmination of some shift towards the draft.

4. There was a massive purge post the Caroll/Grier years. Thank you for Kevin Faulk, but that was pretty much it. Tons of FA adds and removals those years (total players I included were higher in 00 through 02 than in any subsequent years).

5. For the record, the Parcells group by 03/04 was already down to 7 players (key guys, but that's typically true for anyone surviving the purge years of 00-02). Now we're down to just two - Troy Brown and Tedy Bruschi. Also, the asterisk on Parcell's is because we all know he didn't get to pick his groceries. Call it Parcells/Grier if you want.

6. They really do use about 60 players a year in some form or another. I think I might be getting a bit stricter in my criterion for inclusion as the years progress. I'll check that at some point.

 

[edzo44]

Nice work! Thanks for the effort.
This stuff is really interesting. Never thought or realized the team base was so heavily laden with free agent acquisitions.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Observations

1. We've ALWAYS had a way larger percentage of Free Agents than we're typically given credit for. We may not make a splash for the top guys all the time, but we have lots of UDFAs, and middle class FAs like Kyle Brady, Heath Evans, Chad Scott and so on. We have more top FAs that typically noted as well (Harrison, Colvin, Thomas, etc.)

2. The Draft percentage of the team has steadily grown, but the best years (take 04 as the best right now) usually don't have the draft percentage going much beyond 40%. A constant influx of "veterans" to balance the draft seems to be a key part of BB's team building strategy.

3. The lack of FA additions in 06 really was a one year abberation, not the culmination of some shift towards the draft.

One quick question--how do you count rookie UDFAs? [I'd argue they count as draft picks, rather than true FA acquisitions.]

 

[cstjohn17]

This is great, thsnk you. Since you may have access to the data. For the draft picks can you breakdown the round of each 'contributor' was taken 1-7 plus UDFA?

I am interested to see percentages assigned by round. Example:
5 round 1 picks - 5 contributed - 100%
8 round seven picks - 3 contributed 37.5%

Thanks again, great stuff.

 

[rabthepat]

Re: Roster Makeup by Percentage

Roster by percentage in attached image

Great chart!!!!

 

[patsox23]

Re: Roster Makeup by Percentage

awesome effort. Thanks a ton!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Re: Roster Makeup by Percentage

Poor Borges, to be so colorblind in a vivid world.

Thanks Vern!

 

[DaBruinz]

Is there a way to hide this thread from people like Aqua and DWC? I'd be afraid of their heads exploding if they were to realize that a significant portion of the team is brought in during free agency... And that includes during the 3 years that the Pats won the SB.

 

[Lampshade]

Fabulous stuff. Great work, Vern.

 

[psychoPat]

Re: Observations

Vern, i doff my cap to ya!
Solid piece of work.
Revelatory.

To quote your sig,
"It's good! It's goooood!!"

 

[jct]

Solid Work appreciate the efforts!!

 

[DarrylS]

When you look at it that way it is better than black and white...

 

[Vern]

Re: Observations

Thanks all, some answers to questions:

UDFAs are counted as FAs (as are RFAs). I get that they could be considered as draftees, but at the same time, they could have been signed by anyone, so getting them here involved more of what you do as a GM in free agency - fight for and win the player. Yes, UDFA may be more convinced to join your team due to opportunity than pay, but it's same dynamic that makes a Thomas decide to come to the Pats for less too. You have to draw a line somewhere.

I have separate data for their draft picks by round (percentage of "success" by round). I didn't think to incorporate it here. I think it would work visually, but it will take a bit of work. I suppose I could separate out UDFAs in that as well, if the data is out there. It's pretty hard to get historical data on guys that are no longer on an NFL roster.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Vern:

great analysis and wonderfully clear charting.

like others, i was struck by the rapid shutdown of the carroll era.

but i was most struck by the FA shrinkage in 2006. puts a statistical wrap on something about which a lot of us have shot from the hip.

also, if i read it correctly, Parcells' guys were never more than 10 or 11 percent of any of the SB seasons.

Thanks.

PS: You might think of slapping a copyright "c" on the charts before some idiot sportswriter uses them.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Observations

One quick question--how do you count rookie UDFAs? [I'd argue they count as draft picks, rather than true FA acquisitions.]

I'd be very interested in hearing this argument. The very description (undrafted free agent) seems to indicate that they were free agents AND undrafted. What makes them draft picks?

 

[patsfan13]

Re: Observations

Interesting that with BB not liking the draft this year it is the first year where the # of drafted players on the roster decreased.

That will probably change next year.

 

[Funktopus]

Love it.

In general, i'd be facinated by roster composition by regime over time for all teams and a broader time period.

As far a Borges' speculation goes, I'd like to see how Parcells' AFC chamionship team was composed. How many Parcells "guys" were on that team versus Rod Rust "guys" and how does that compare with the volume of Parcells players on BB's teams?