Matchup: Week #1: Jets (analysis welcome)

[teamplay]

I'd like to propose that we start a thread each week to cover pregame analysis -- a thread where we could contribute links and our own thoughts about the upcoming game.

I wish I had found much to contribute. Most of the sports Web sites are pumping out statistical comparisons (boring) and little or no expert analysis.

Just to prime the pump a bit, here's Judy Battista's review of the AFC East (with the Pats and Jets the main features): http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/05/sports/afce.php

 

[Patriots Nation NY]

I'd like to propose that we start a thread each week to cover pregame analysis -- a thread where we could contribute links and our own thoughts about the upcoming game.

I wish I had found much to contribute. Most of the sports Web sites are pumping out statistical comparisons (boring) and little or no expert analysis.

Just to prime the pump a bit, here's Judy Battista's review of the AFC East (with the Pats and Jets the main features): http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/05/sports/afce.php

Here is my analysis.. PAIN - LOTS OF PAIN@The Meadowlands..

 

[denverpatsfan]

Jets will try to run the ball down the Pats throats until the D proves they can stop the run. Pats are missing 2 of the best players on D.

New O-line and new RB will be out to prove themselves. This was a weak spot last season and the Jets have been working all off season to improve it.

Jets will also try to spread the field to take advantage of Gay/Merriweather if the run game stalls.

Pats will have to withstand the initial onslaught and slowly take control of the game in order to take the crowd out of it.

Hopefully this is not a close one. But it probably will. This is your classic "revenge" game for the playoff loss last season. Those games always have the loser playing MUCH better than before.

I hope the kicking game will be OK. This could be a serious issue that nobody has really discussed here.

 

[PatsFan37]

It seemed like last year's danger against the Jets was that Coles, Cotchery, and Washington were breakaway threats.

The Pats LBs are better this year than last year and I don't think they'll have trouble in their standard 3-4 of stopping the run. By containing the breakaway threat and forcing the Jets into underneath passes and short runs, they force them to trade punt or field goals against the Pats making field goals or TDs. Not saying the Pats won't punt or the Jets won't score, just forces the odds in the Pats favor, since the Pats O will be stronger against the Jets D than the Jets O against the Pats D.

It'll be interesting to see if both teams come out in no-huddle, quick substitutions like last year's coaching games. Last year the Pats went no-huddle specifically to shake off the Jets pressure, and threw a lot of quick outs.

I think the Jets will go no-huddle again because they need trickery. I think the Pats will not have to be as tricky, BB has enough offensive talent to stop the blitz straight up with his skill players. Mangini cannot afford to leave guys like Welker, Stallworth or Moss in man coverage. Nor will BB focus as heavily on quick-outs since a couple of those were almost intercepted last year. If Jets are getting pressure, he'll use a mix of play action, and screens, as well as dump offs to guys like Welker and Gaffney who can get decent YAC when the middle is left open.

In the red zone last year, BB used his 3-TE heavy package to blow his way into the end zone. With Moss and K. Brady (if healthy) and Welker, he's got options besides Maroney and he doesn't have a lot of healthy TEs. Still, he'll want to exploit matchups, like the ability to run Maroney behind the powerful left side of the Oline.

I'm sure we'll see more than a couple deep passes on 1st and 2nd down, to Stallworth and Moss. I'd be very surprised if there isn't at least one long gain or long TD throw, setting up a delightful pattern for the season.

I'm anticipating a game that looks closer on the scoreboard than on the field.

 

[QuinielaBox]

Well - I think this would be a very good week to have lots of A O G s....


A O G = Airplane On Ground.........

Good for my wallet, good for the Patriots. Come on, put some dents in those J E T S!!!!!

 

[Tunescribe]

I think the Jets will be sky-high for this game and will be VERY physical. Remember, we ruined their home opener last year in addition to knocking them out of the playoffs, so they'll be throwing everything they have at us including the kitchen sink. I see the Jets playing with a sense of desperation we'll be hard-pressed to match early on.

If they somehow get up on us by more than one score, things could be very tough; it would not surprise me at all to see the Pats trailing at the end of the first half. From the middle of the third quarter-on, however, I think things will settle down into each team's respective skill sets. This is where I see Brady and the passing game taking charge. I think it will be tight all the way but we prevail in the fourth quarter.

I see Pennington having some success against our secondary, especially early in the game. He will be passing on quick rhythm to neutralize our pass rush and try to isolate people on our slower linebackers with an occasional shot over the top to test the safeties. The key for the Jets offense is whether they can muster a running game. If they can run on us (100-yards plus) they will be in it all the way with a chance to win. If we bottle them up, Pennington will not beat us with his arm.

The same cannot be said of Brady. I think even if the Jets stuff our running game, Tom can beat them with the passing game. This may not be evident in the early going, however, as the Jets D will be playing over its head on adrenaline and Tom might be out of synch with the new receivers at game speed. I am hoping that the offensive line will give enough push for Maroney to pleasantly surprise us running the ball, but I don't expect it. If we can come out and do anything close to what we did in the first half of the preseason tilt against Carolina, the game will be a cakewalk.

Bottom line, I think this will be a slugfest down to the wire, with the key difference being Brady to Welker.

 

[frankiesfly]

I still don't think Pennington is any good, and don't think he has what it takes to lead a team. I think Mangini being in his first season in NY, might have been a big reason why the Jets overachieved last year. I don't think Seymour, or Harrison missing is going to make a big difference in this game. The Pats taking away the run game will force the Jets to rely on the air. The Jets do have a good group of wideouts, but will Chad have the time to throw? The Pats will get to Chad and force him to make bad desicions, leading to INT's. This is going to be a bad opener for the J-E-T-S, and Pennington. It won't be long before the Clemens talk comes up. Pennington loses his job by the 8th week.

 

[townes]

Jets will try to run the ball down the Pats throats until the D proves they can stop the run. Pats are missing 2 of the best players on D.

I agree, I think much of Mangini's focus with the Jets is forcing them to man up physically, and they will run the ball even if its not working just to keep balance and be physical. I think they'll run 25 times and go deep in hopes of making big plays or getting the calls.The Jets are outmanned, so they'll have to win the game physically and hope Mangini and staff can win the coaching battles.

 

[gangreenman]

Here is my analysis.. PAIN - LOTS OF PAIN@The Meadowlands..

Yes, you may want to have your novacain handy!! :rocker:

 

[gangreenman]

I agree, I think much of Mangini's focus with the Jets is forcing them to man up physically, and they will run the ball even if its not working just to keep balance and be physical. I think they'll run 25 times and go deep in hopes of making big plays or getting the calls.The Jets are outmanned, so they'll have to win the game physically and hope Mangini and staff can win the coaching battles.

I actually disagree. I think Mangini knows that BB is going to do whatever it takes to stop the run and make Chad beat the Pats.

My guess is that we'll see eight in the box and I dont expect many blitzes from the Pats unless its a passing down....

If Pennington can handle that and beat that Pats secondary, the Jets will have their opportunities, if not, this game will be over by the end of the 3rd quarter.

 

[ClevTrev]

I think Mangini knows that BB is going to do whatever it takes to stop the run and make Chad beat the Pats.

My guess is that we'll see eight in the box and I dont expect many blitzes from the Pats unless its a passing down....

If Pennington can handle that and beat that Pats secondary, the Jets will have their opportunities, if not, this game will be over by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Good analysis. While there may not be many blitzes by the Pats, you can bet the LBs will be in disguise and pressure will come from them and the DEs during the course of the game. The key with Pennington is to severely limit his time in the pocket and force him to move. My guess is that this is what the Pats have been working on most. The other, as you say, is stopping the run.

Should be a good one, as both teams are sky high, but not quite as sky high as some of their fans.

 

[gangreenman]

Good analysis. While there may not be many blitzes by the Pats, you can bet the LBs will be in disguise and pressure will come from them and the DEs during the course of the game. The key with Pennington is to severely limit his time in the pocket and force him to move. My guess is that this is what the Pats have been working on most. The other, as you say, is stopping the run.

Should be a good one, as both teams are sky high, but not quite as sky high as some of their fans.

I think if there are blitzes on 1st or 2nd down, they will be read blitzes, meaning the LB's wont go until they make their reads and realize that its not a run. On 3rd and long situations, you better beleive the Pats are bringing the house and will test the young, unexperienced OL.

Also, it'll be interesting to see how Belly stacks the Right side of the D to try and exploit our weakness with Ferguson and Bender on the left... At the very least, I expect to see Warren on the right instead of Green.

For the Jets, I would like to see how we counter Belly's Defensive alignment and if we run a lot of screens etc... to keep the LB's on the heels.

As always, should be a good game of chess.

 

[livinginthe past]

Well this one is billed as the Jets blitz heavy D against the Patriots newly installed offense.

I'll be looking for the O-line and Maroney to show me that they can run the ball convincingly even when the opposition is set up to stop it.

I don't think teams are going to back right off the LOS, not until Brady hooks up a couple of times on deep balls - this should open up the underneath routes for Watson and Welker.

Im confident that the DB's are in good shape headingto this game despite the loss of Rodney.

Samuel, Hobbs and Gay are a nice rotation at CB and most teams would think nothing of plugging a first round pick straight in at safety.

I guess LeKevin Smith has done more than most to get a little playing time in relief of the starters - with Seymour out he should get it.

We know what Pennington will bring, a sub-standard version of what Tom Brady does - alot of timing routes and short stuff - it'll be key to stop their WR's making any huge YAC gains.

If the offense can click, they could kill this off early and take the crowd out of the game - if they can get ahead and stay ahead then that NY crowd will become the Patriots 12th man.

Patriots 27 Jets 13

 

[ClevTrev]

Also, it'll be interesting to see how Belly stacks the Right side of the D to try and exploit our weakness with Ferguson and Bender on the left... At the very least, I expect to see Warren on the right instead of Green.

For the Jets, I would like to see how we counter Belly's Defensive alignment and if we run a lot of screens etc... to keep the LB's on the heels.

As always, should be a good game of chess.

Not sure they'll actually take care of that by swapping DEs. My guess is that the LBs (OLBs & ILBs) will be in an uncommitted formation and will bring pressure as the DLs tie up the Jets OL.

You're right, a game of chess to say the least.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I was reading a Jets board yesterday and over and over again they were saying NY needs to pound the ball, that they need to run it right at NE, blah blah macho crap.

NY's OL doesn't match up well with NE's front 7. Their WRs, on the other hand, can do damage to the NE secondary. I think NY needs to come out throwing quick, short passes. Don't give Colvin and Green enough time to get to the QB, and don't foolishly run into a wall. Try to hit guys in stride under the secondary. Getting past the front 7 is hard, but outrunning NE's secondary isn't. Think of the "garbage time" TDs in week 2 last year. I'm not saying they shouldn't run, but they should pass to set up the run.

I don't know enough about NY's defense to say what NE should do. NE needs to execute. If they do, NY can't stop them. And please show off Moss so that the questions can go away.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The Jest strength on offense is the short passing game, get the ball to Coles/Cotchery/Washington in space and let them get creative. The Pats got a lot of pressure on Penny in the first game last year, this will be a similar game. The D will want to deny Penny any roll-outs to the right, away from the weak link at LG. They will need to force him to make quick decisions under pressure - which should create a turnover or two.

Despite the fuss over Rodney's suspension and Seymour's PUPping, this defense is solid and experienced top to bottom. The biggest concern is Wilson's hamstring - and if Samuel is activated that allows Blue to backstop Geno. The Jest will try to establish the run with Jones and Washington, but they don't have the horses to handle Warren on their strong side. I expect this to be Wilfork's breakout year so Mangold and the Guards won't be enough to contain him. Green working against Fergy and the rook is a losing proposition. All that's before the linebackers get rolling.

The great challenge for the Pats D is limiting the YAC after NY's three sparkplugs get their hands on the ball. The Pats will need to be disciplined in zone, and quick to contain the receivers. Pull Bruschi for Alexander or Mitchell on obvious passing downs - be aware of the screen or draw, Washington is very good, as good as Faulk.

The Jest defense is an unknown. Vilma is great in pursuit and a smart player, the question is how much stronger is he in the 3-4 after a year in the system? Ellis was quite good at LDE. Robertson should have a better idea of how to play the Nose, but he is also likely to still be fighting instinct and prior training the way we see when LeKevin Smith is inside. They've obviously found someone who can shore up the RDE position better then Kimo, but whomever it might be is an unknown. The Pats run game should be decent against the front seven and I look for NE to use it to grind down the defense.

I expect the Pats to come out early and pressure the secondary with Moss, Stallworth, and Watson. This will hopefully force Kerry Rhodes to stay deep and keep the Jest from blitzing him and using him in the box. The Pats should be able to move the ball well against the Jest D, later in the season that D will be much tougher as they get reps together.

Special Teams will be critical and I have no crystal ball on how this will go. The Jest have some terrific returners and Eric knows the importance of building a strong STs program.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think if there are blitzes on 1st or 2nd down, they will be read blitzes, meaning the LB's wont go until they make their reads and realize that its not a run. On 3rd and long situations, you better beleive the Pats are bringing the house and will test the young, unexperienced OL.

Also, it'll be interesting to see how Belly stacks the Right side of the D to try and exploit our weakness with Ferguson and Bender on the left... At the very least, I expect to see Warren on the right instead of Green.

For the Jets, I would like to see how we counter Belly's Defensive alignment and if we run a lot of screens etc... to keep the LB's on the heels.

As always, should be a good game of chess.

I don't see them flipping Warren at all. Green has always been a strong RDE in relief of Seymour. He took a lot of reps in the infamous San Diego game since Sey needed to be rested often with his bad wing and drumstick. Where the pass rush pressure will come on the left is Colvin and Thomas, I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas blitzes on Bender quite often (Bender was one of the OTs on my draft board, I'm glad to see I picked one correctly, even if he went to the wrong program).

The chess match here is the best part of this rivalry. I really miss Herm and his ability to turn things on their head for his team, but having two coaching staffs with similar philosophies and more then one brain cell to spare is soooo entertaining to watch.

 

[JETS FAN 10]

i think its going to be a tough fought game. i think the pats will stack 8 men in the box and force pennington to beat them. i dont think chemistry will be an issue for the pats, there a veteran team. im interested to see revis in real game action, he's got all the tools, but should take him some time to get use to game speed. thomas jones is still recovering from injury and the pats defense will be missing some key guys too, but history shows a bum off the streets can fill in.

jets offense vs pats defense - edge go to pats

pats offense vs jets defense - edge go to pats

special teams - edge go to jets

jets are going to have to score early we all know chad cant play catch up, i think its going to be a close game and b/c im a jets fan like or not boys...

jets 24
pats 17

 

[gangreenman]

I was reading a Jets board yesterday and over and over again they were saying NY needs to pound the ball, that they need to run it right at NE, blah blah macho crap.

NY's OL doesn't match up well with NE's front 7. Their WRs, on the other hand, can do damage to the NE secondary. I think NY needs to come out throwing quick, short passes. Don't give Colvin and Green enough time to get to the QB, and don't foolishly run into a wall. Try to hit guys in stride under the secondary. Getting past the front 7 is hard, but outrunning NE's secondary isn't. Think of the "garbage time" TDs in week 2 last year. I'm not saying they shouldn't run, but they should pass to set up the run.

I don't know enough about NY's defense to say what NE should do. NE needs to execute. If they do, NY can't stop them. And please show off Moss so that the questions can go away.

NY's defense has some talent but a lot of depth, so as a Pats fan you should expect to see a lot of different personell packages and as always when the Jets play the Pats since Mangini took over, even more movement.

So the key for Brady and co. is not to get lost in all the swapping and moving. The Jets D is best described as a bend but dont break unit. They wont overwhelm you with talent, but they will take advantage of opportunities and will do whatever possible to create those opportunities. So if the OL can pick up the blitzes and Brady can make his reads, you should be okay. If not, you'll likely have a long day, lol.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

Why are posters saying NE will blitz heavily(6+ pass rushers) and/or stack the box? Bltzing 6,7 or 8 guys is a recipe for big plays against your defense. It's a gamble. NE shouldn't have to gamble against NYJ because they usually can get pressure without doing so. Also, why does NE have to stack the box to stop the run vs. NYJ? If NE can stop the run easily(and they should) they can have more defenders in coverage to match up with NYJ pass catchers.

Pennington is Captain Checkdown of Three and Out City. 24-9 Pats!