In ESPN TMQ - Accuscore says give the punt the boot - I like it :)

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I always liked the gamble of going for it instead of the regular safe punting situation in terms of short yardage...I like the accuscore evaluation as posted on the ESPN website in today's TMQ

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrookpreview/070904&sportCat=nfl

Maybe BB will read this and change a few plays this year,especially with this offensive juggernaut

 

[patfanken]

I haven't read the article yet, but BB goes for it on 4th down more than any HC in the league. Maybe he read it.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I haven't read the article yet, but BB goes for it on 4th down more than any HC in the league. Maybe he read it.

Do you have any statistics.link to back that up patfanken?..Would be interesting to see if that is actually the case and the Pats go for it more often than any other team.

I thought I read somewhere a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were the team to go for it more on 4th and short..I could be wrong.

 

[cstjohn17]

No point playing the game, the computer says:
http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_game_preview/tab,stats/Itemid,207/game_id,6/

69% of the simulations we win, average score 23.9 - 18.6

Weather looks good as well
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNJ0128?par=1026403092&prod=xoap
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On Punting - This brings back bad memories. The one specific time we should have used 2 downs to get a 1st down we threw an incomplete pass to Troy Brown. Let me refresh you, 3rd and 4 NE 46 versus Indy.

3-4-NE 46 (2:30) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to T.Brown (B.Sanders).

They should have run the damn ball, a first down would have essentially sealed the game. Indy had one timeout left.
Run the ball on 3rd down, Heath Evans trips and falls forward for 2 yards bringing up a 4th and 2. Indy would have used their final timeout.
On 4th down find a way to get 2 yards and win the game.

Ahhh, this will drive me crazy until the season actually starts.

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

Do you have any statistics.link to back that up patfanken?..Would be interesting to see if that is actually the case and the Pats go for it more often than any other team.

I thought I read somewhere a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were the team to go for it more on 4th and short..I could be wrong.

I'd be willing to bet that that Patriots were in the top 5 in the league in 4th down attempts, and probably the top one or two in 4th down conversion success last year, while the Seahawks were at the bottom in both stats.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

As far as BB going for it on 4th down, it's worth pointing out that a lot of those situations would have been kicks, not punts.

I also pointed out the rather interesting fact that none of Gostkowski's kicks last season started out with a snap between the 20 and the 30 (i.e., a 37-yard to 47-yard attempt); every time the Pats had 4th down there, they went for it.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I'd be willing to bet that that Patriots were in the top 5 in the league in 4th down attempts, and probably the top one or two in 4th down conversion success last year, while the Seahawks were at the bottom in both stats.

Is that fact or your opinion about the Seahawks in bottom of both? - Just wondering where you got that info.

 

[Mix]

Is that fact or your opinion about the Seahawks in bottom of both? - Just wondering where you got that info.

Seattle had 8 4th down attempts which was 31st in the league and only converted 2 which left them tied for 30th.

Patriots were tied for 5th with 20 4th down attempts and converted 80% to lead the league.

 

[Pawn512]

Seattle had 8 4th down attempts which was 31st in the league and only converted 2 which left them tied for 30th.

Patriots were tied for 5th with 20 4th down attempts and converted 80% to lead the league.

Teams generally go for on fourth down for 2 very different reasons:

1. They are behind late in the game and have little to lose. Behind by 10 with a minute to go most coaches will go for it on 4th and 5 from their 20.

2. They have an aggresive head coach who will go for it on certain 4th down situations more often than most in earlier, closer game situations.

Almost all of the Pats fourth down attempts fall in the second category... which is likely why we led the league in conversions rate. That we had such a high number of 4th down attempts while going 12-4 (thus minimizing the attempts in the first category) tells you something about how aggresive the Pats are in those situations.

 

[Gwedd]

Fellers,

One of the things that has troubled me for years, is why so many teams will risk punting when backed up within their own 5 yard line, or punting from inside their end zone.

If you are ahead, why not simply take the safety and then get a free kick from further out? That's what BB did in the Denver game. He knew the quality of our defense, and rather than risk giving Denver field position on our side of the 50, he took the two point for the safety, and then we ended up being place Denver way back on their side of the field.

It just seems to me that if you have a quality defense, then taking the safety is the best bet when inside your own 5 and facing fourth down, rather than punting it away.

Respects,

 

[spacecrime]

Do you have any statistics.link to back that up patfanken?...

No link, but we went for it on 4th down AV's last year when we were in what I considered his FG range.

 

[Seven Nation Army]

Fellers,

One of the things that has troubled me for years, is why so many teams will risk punting when backed up within their own 5 yard line, or punting from inside their end zone.

If you are ahead, why not simply take the safety and then get a free kick from further out? That's what BB did in the Denver game. He knew the quality of our defense, and rather than risk giving Denver field position on our side of the 50, he took the two point for the safety, and then we ended up being place Denver way back on their side of the field.

That situation only worked because the Patriots could afford to concede a safety. And, no, the Patriots were not ahead when they took the safety in Denver in November 2003. They were trailing by one and essentially decided to play for overtime by giving Denver a three point lead. Your post implies that taking a safety is a cure-all for "troubling" 5-yard line punt attempts. It only works if you can give up two points and still reasonably expect to tie or win the game.

 

[Seven Nation Army]

There is an article from the New York Times which proves the Patriots punt less often and go for two-point conversions less often than the average NFL team.

Ideas & Trends: Super Bowl Economics; Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards to Go

By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: February 1, 2004

THE academic paper that David Romer began writing two years ago did not look like something that could determine the outcome of a Super Bowl. Sure, it was an analysis of whether professional football teams punt more often than is rational, but it seemed intended mainly for the amusement of sports fans who happen to be professors.

Professor Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, used the phrases ''Bellman equation'' and ''dynamic-programming analysis'' -- in the paper's title, no less. His footnotes cited work published in Econometrica, Cognitive Science and other publications that are not exactly must-reads in N.F.L. locker rooms.

But when his conclusion -- teams punt too much -- began getting attention last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New England Patriots, about the paper.

''I read it,'' he said, according to The Boston Herald. ''I don't know much of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he has some valid points.''

http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F2061EFE3D5F0C728CDDAB0894DC404482

 

[Flying Fungi]

situational football

you hear it so much that you almost tend to overlook it's applications

4th down is the height of situational footbal--time of the game, field position, score, team record, point in the season, and a host of intangibles go into the decision here in NE.

This is not to be confused by any decisions made by Herm Edwards or Marty Schottenheimer.

 

[Nordy]

His analysis is not to be taken seriously because he did it wrong. He uses average gain when he should be using the median.

 

[Oswlek]

His analysis is not to be taken seriously because he did it wrong. He uses average gain when he should be using the median.

TMQ is thought provoking, but he manipulates numbers too much and he repeats himself to no end. If you read his articles from 3 years ago, you know exactly what he will say this year.

 

[brdmaverick]

As far as BB going for it on 4th down, it's worth pointing out that a lot of those situations would have been kicks, not punts.

I also pointed out the rather interesting fact that none of Gostkowski's kicks last season started out with a snap between the 20 and the 30 (i.e., a 37-yard to 47-yard attempt); every time the Pats had 4th down there, they went for it.

that is an interesting stat