Free Agent analysis Belichick Era 2000-2006

[RobertWeathers]

I wanted to go back in history and see how each FA acquisition worked out for the Pats. The rating scale is based on $$$ for ROI. Comments welcome

0- Bad signing (never made team or bad ROI)
1- Made a decent contribution (slightly less ROI than what was expected)
2- Was a solid contributor (ROI right on)
3- Superior Signing (Above and beyond ROI)

Rookie FAs are not included and trades and signs (Dillon) are not counted.

2000
Joe Andruzzi -3
Aaron Bailey -0
Eric Bjornson -1
Bobby Hamilton -3
Jon Harris -0
Antonio Langham -0
Lance Scott -0
Otis Smith -2
Grant Williams -2

The Skinny: Andruzzi and Hamilton were great pickups. O-T-I-S was also solid

2001
Je'Rod Cherry -2
Mike Compton -2
Marc Edwards -2
Damon Huard -2
Larry Izzo -3
Marty Moore -0
David Patten -3
Roman Phifer -3
Anthony Pleasant -2
Antowain Smith -3
Chris Sullivan -0
Mike Vrabel -3
Ken Walter -2

The Skinny: XXVI was won with these guys. Arguably the greatest FA class in NFL history

2002
Cameron Cleeland -1
Scott Dragos -0
Christian Fauria -2
Chris Hayes -0
Donald Hayes -0
Rob Kelly -0
Tom Knight -0
Rick Lyle -2
Steve Martin -0
Ryan Phillips -0
Daryl Porter -0
Ratcliff Thomas -0
Rich Tylski -0

The Skinny: As good as 2001's was, this was terrible.

2003
Chris Akins -0
Larry Centers -1
Michael Cloud -2
Rosevelt Colvin -2
Don Davis -2
Brandon Gorin -1
Rodney Harrison -3
Russ Hochstein -2
Sean McDermott -0
Tyrone Poole -1
Dedric Ward -2

The Skinny: Not bad at all. Harrison made up for short-term miss on Rosey and long term miss on Poole.

2004
Josh Miller -2
Keith Traylor -2

The Skinny: Nice pickups.

2005
Monty Beisel -0
Chad Brown -0
Tim Dwight -2
Antuan Edwards -0
Doug Flutie -2
Artrell Hawkins -2
Victor Leyva -0
Wesly Mallard -0
Chad Morton -0
Chad Scott -2
David Terrell -0

The Skinny- Needed to do more here. Went on the cheap.

2006
Reche Caldwell -2
Jabar Gaffney -2
Martin Gramatica -0
Tebucky Jones -0
Mel Mitchell -0
Todd Sauerbrun -2 -Did well in the postseason
Chad Scott -2
Junior Seau -2

The Skinny- Nice group of pickups. I have a feeling Gaffney will be a diamond in the rough. Went on the cheap again.


Overall, 2002 and 2005 were terrible. 2000, 2004 and 2006 were decent.
2001 was one for the ages.

 

[JackBauer]

You should think about incorporating negative numbers for Steve Martin.

Good work, though. I would rate Poole a 2, just because he played way above his talent level when he was here, and that 2003 secondary was something else.

 

[patsox23]

Ty Poole and Rosey Colvin deserve 3's in my opinion. As much as Poole was a tool, and faded fast at the end, he played a huge role in a Super Bowl year. I think, given what he was signed for, that was a very good signing.

Very few to quibble with otherwise, though. And a GREAT thread. Thanks.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You should think about incorporating negative numbers for Steve Martin.

Good work, though. I would rate Poole a 2, just because he played way above his talent level when he was here, and that 2003 secondary was something else.

Totally on Martin. What a waste of space.

Poole was dominant in 03 no question. However, my reasoning for the 1 was that his origional deal was a four year $8.024 million deal that included a $1.8 million signing bonus. The rest of his time here was marred by injury. They cut him before the 06 season and saved $1.8m on the cap. You can look at it this way. For 3 seasons, the team paid him 6.22m. Thats about 2.07m a year. I guess you can say in 03 he was worth 5m and the other 2 was 600k....

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I would rate Gorin a 2, any guy you sign for minimum dollars and get that many starts out of at least met expectations.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I would rate Gorin a 2, any guy you sign for minimum dollars and get that many starts out of at least met expectations.

I agree. Good catch!

 

[pats1]

Gorin was on the Pats' practice squad at the beginning of the 2002 season.

 

[Oswlek]

I want to commend you for your efforts on this one. I think that a 0-3 scale might be a little simplistic to get really accurate ratings, but your model does do a good job of providing a nice overview.

A few minor quibbles:

* If Rosey has another year like last year, I don't see how he is anything but a terrific signing. This one IMHO is incomplete.

* Centers gave NE exactly what they expected from him. Going by the laguage of your ranking system, he has to get a 2. I can see why you wouldn't put him there, but that is where I think your system (if you really wanted to get into greater depth) shows its faults.

* Miller was possibly the best punter in the league in 2005 and the beginning of 2006. 3 has to be the selection - again, going by the verbiage of your ranking. I can see why you wouldn't put a punter up there with guys like Harrison and Vrabel, but Miller was excellent.

I thought I had a couple others, but I can't find them right now.

Edit: It was Flutie and Cloud. Thank mg for the reminder.

 

[mgteich]

Let's analyze a few 2's and make a conclusion.

Flutie 2
Cloud 2
Colvin 2
Hochstein 2
Otis Smith 2

CONCLUSION - You must have gone to BC, or at least you ar a strong BC fan.

Flutie and Cloud were useless to the team. Colvin is an all-pro who was injured. Hochstein is capable (and has) started at two OL positions and has been critical to our OL success. O-T-I-S received pro-bowl votes and was part of our top duo of shutdown corners. My ratings, which include cost for these five are 1, 0, 3, 3, and 3

I wanted to go back in history and see how each FA acquisition worked out for the Pats. The rating scale is based on $$$ for ROI. Comments welcome

0- Bad signing (never made team or bad ROI)
1- Made a decent contribution (slightly less ROI than what was expected)
2- Was a solid contributor (ROI right on)
3- Superior Signing (Above and beyond ROI)

Rookie FAs are not included and trades and signs (Dillon) are not counted.

2000
Joe Andruzzi -3
Aaron Bailey -0
Eric Bjornson -1
Bobby Hamilton -3
Jon Harris -0
Antonio Langham -0
Lance Scott -0
Otis Smith -2
Grant Williams -2

The Skinny: Andruzzi and Hamilton were great pickups. O-T-I-S was also solid

2001
Je'Rod Cherry -2
Mike Compton -2
Marc Edwards -2
Damon Huard -2
Larry Izzo -3
Marty Moore -0
David Patten -3
Roman Phifer -3
Anthony Pleasant -2
Antowain Smith -3
Chris Sullivan -0
Mike Vrabel -3
Ken Walter -2

The Skinny: XXVI was won with these guys. Arguably the greatest FA class in NFL history

2002
Cameron Cleeland -1
Scott Dragos -0
Christian Fauria -2
Chris Hayes -0
Donald Hayes -0
Rob Kelly -0
Tom Knight -0
Rick Lyle -2
Steve Martin -0
Ryan Phillips -0
Daryl Porter -0
Ratcliff Thomas -0
Rich Tylski -0

The Skinny: As good as 2001's was, this was terrible.

2003
Chris Akins -0
Larry Centers -1
Michael Cloud -2
Rosevelt Colvin -2
Don Davis -2
Brandon Gorin -1
Rodney Harrison -3
Russ Hochstein -2
Sean McDermott -0
Tyrone Poole -1
Dedric Ward -2

The Skinny: Not bad at all. Harrison made up for short-term miss on Rosey and long term miss on Poole.

2004
Josh Miller -2
Keith Traylor -2

The Skinny: Nice pickups.

2005
Monty Beisel -0
Chad Brown -0
Tim Dwight -2
Antuan Edwards -0
Doug Flutie -2
Artrell Hawkins -2
Victor Leyva -0
Wesly Mallard -0
Chad Morton -0
Chad Scott -2
David Terrell -0

The Skinny- Needed to do more here. Went on the cheap.

2006
Reche Caldwell -2
Jabar Gaffney -2
Martin Gramatica -0
Tebucky Jones -0
Mel Mitchell -0
Todd Sauerbrun -2 -Did well in the postseason
Chad Scott -2
Junior Seau -2

The Skinny- Nice group of pickups. I have a feeling Gaffney will be a diamond in the rough. Went on the cheap again.


Overall, 2002 and 2005 were terrible. 2000, 2004 and 2006 were decent.
2001 was one for the ages.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Ty Poole and Rosey Colvin deserve 3's in my opinion. As much as Poole was a tool, and faded fast at the end, he played a huge role in a Super Bowl year. I think, given what he was signed for, that was a very good signing.

Very few to quibble with otherwise, though. And a GREAT thread. Thanks.

I dunna know. Colvin's deal is a six years- $25.85 million. He doesnt make a lot of tackles and he's averaged about 6 sacks a season here. but I'm just not sure that hes exceeded ROI. Hes been a solid contributor. I like him and if he has a real good year, then I'd agree with him being a 3.

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

Let's analyze a few 2's and make a conclusion.

Cloud were useless to the team.

You can't be serious, what about his first game against Tennessee. He was a monster! LOL

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Three points:

1) Great post. Thanks. The season must be near when we start to see threads like this.

2) Your work shows the volatility and risk associated with Free Agent signings and probably validates the traditional Patriot caution. For example, we all agree about the Class of 2001, but who could have known at the time that so many of these guys would eventually step up so big.

3) I think you're being too tough on Colvin (I know you're thinking about his injury) and Poole (who gave his all) and that just maybe you gave a little bit of a Boston pass to Doug Flutie (of whom I have been a great fan since his days at The Heights). Also, how isn't Otis a 3?

 

[Flying Fungi]

You can't be serious, what about his first game against Tennessee. He was a monster! LOL

And then what?

I would give Don Davis a 2.51~2.99 for his versatility--DB, LB, ST--Don was a gamer and the team saw fit to keep him around when he retired...

 

[Rob0729]

Ty Poole and Rosey Colvin deserve 3's in my opinion. As much as Poole was a tool, and faded fast at the end, he played a huge role in a Super Bowl year. I think, given what he was signed for, that was a very good signing.

Very few to quibble with otherwise, though. And a GREAT thread. Thanks.

Poole is marginally a 3. I would go 2.5. Great one year, but a pansy the next year since he wouldn't go back on the field until he was 100% and the Pats just IRed him.

Colvin definitely deserves a 3. The guys ability to put pressure on the QB is way underrated in New England. He was 10th in the league last year in QB pressures with 20 along with 8.5 sacks.

 

[DarrylS]

I dunna know. Colvin's deal is a six years- $25.85 million. He doesnt make a lot of tackles and he's averaged about 6 sacks a season here. but I'm just not sure that hes exceeded ROI. Hes been a solid contributor. I like him and if he has a real good year, then I'd agree with him being a 3.

In a statistic driven defense this might make sense, as this is the opposite and a team defense numbers make little... always make the comparison of Seymour, some games shows up in the box score minimally, when I replay the game you find out why.. he is clogging up 2 or 3 defenders and turning in a lot of plays.. Colvin has done what he is supposed to do..

 

[DaBruinz]

The problem with doing lists like this is that you punish players for something out of their control. Such as McDermott. He was signed to a pro-rated minimum deal and got injured during practice after 1 game.

People you don't mention:
Charles Johnson
Torrance Small
Bert Emmanuel
Brian Kinchen
Jamil Soriano
Jamin Elliot
Victor Green

 

[Flying Fungi]

The problem with doing lists like this is that you punish players for something out of their control. Such as McDermott. He was signed to a pro-rated minimum deal and got injured during practice after 1 game.

People you don't mention:
Charles Johnson
Torrance Small
Bert Emmanuel
Brian Kinchen
Jamil Soriano
Jamin Elliot
Victor Green

Terrell Buckley
Vinny Testeverde

 

[Rob0729]

The problem with doing lists like this is that you punish players for something out of their control. Such as McDermott. He was signed to a pro-rated minimum deal and got injured during practice after 1 game.

People you don't mention:
Charles Johnson
Torrance Small
Bert Emmanuel
Brian Kinchen
Jamil Soriano
Jamin Elliot
Victor Green

Don't forget Salia Isala, Bryan Cox, Matt Stevens, Tom Ashworth (was a rookie but was orginally on the 49er's roster and then cut and we picked him up), Terrell Buckley, Vinny Testeverde. Those are more that appear to be missing that I can think of off the top of my head.

 

[Rob0729]

You can't be serious, what about his first game against Tennessee. He was a monster! LOL

Yeah, but he peaked in that game and did very little if anything after that. I don't know if he is worth a 2 for one spectacular game and not anything else. He had 73 yards and two TDs in that game and finished the season with 118 yards and 5 TDs. So the rest of his time here his first stint was 45 yards and 3 TDs. His second stint in 2005 he got 59 yards and no TDs. That looks like a 1 to me (a decent contribution).

 

[Stokes]

What about Ted Washington, was he a FA pickup or did we get him via trade?