Who is getting the carries?

[RobertWeathers]

Since 2000, the Patriots have averaged 461 rushes/yr as an offense with 395 in 2002 and 524 in 2004 being the high/lows for the period.

With Kool-Aid, Morris, Evans and Faulk as the primary backfield participants, I'm interested in getting the thoughts from the great minds of patsfans.com as to how the coaching staff will divide the carries this year. I think with this offense (most likely being of the pass-first variety), we might see something around the same number off carries. However, if the D does it's job of giving the O more chances with the football (and the lead), we might see a more "pass to get ahead and run to keep the lead" brand of football and the carries might go slightly north of the teams ave. during the BB era.

Maroney
I believe that the team's goal will to have Maroney ave. around 16carries/game. At 16 carries, that will give him around 256 for the year. As a point of reference in 2004, Dillon averaged 23 carries a game and had a total of 345 carries in a total of 15 games played. If Kool-Aid averages 4.0 a carry, that will translate into 1024 yards. My gut tells me this might happen. I keep going back to the numbers Ricky Watters put up and with the 49ers and with the exception of one year, Roger Craig (had 1500 yds in 1988) consistiently put up, they both averaged about 900-1100 yds a season and 200+ carries a year. He should get about 3-4 balls thrown to him a game, which should protect him from the pounding he would otherwise get running the ball.

Morris
Over his career, Morris has averaged about 53 carries a year and has a lifetime average of 3.9 ypc. IMO, the carries will go up to about 8 a game and 128 or so this year.

Faulk
Faulk has averaged 79 carries a year, but 2000 and 2003 have skewed that number to be much higher than IMO what he will have in 2007. I think we're looking at more around 35 carries this year which is around 2 a game. Keep in mind, Faulk is more effective the less he gets the ball.

Evans
Evans had 27 carries last year. I think this number might also go up as Evans has improved not only as a blocker, but as a runner. I predict he will also be around 4 carries a game this year with 64 total.

My total comes to 483 runs w/ the appropriate dispursement of carries.

Thoughts?

 

[Remix 6]

only 2 carries per game for Faulk? are u nuts?

 

[RobertWeathers]

only 2 carries per game for Faulk? are u nuts?

I know, it seems silly. But if you take away 2000 and 2003, and the per game carries for the other years, he ran the ball about 3 times a game. Hes 31 years old too. He'll get his catches, no question about that.

 

[zippo59]

I hope Maroney carries more than 16 per game.

 

[patpatriot]

Faulk has to get the ball more than 2 carries a game. My recollection is that last year he usually was in for a couple of series per game as well as 3rd down situations for a total of around 8-10 plays per game although some of those were pass plays and screens.

As for Morris, I'd look for him to get about half of Dillon's former carries so that's 12-14 a game.

Evans is only good for short yardage so 3-5 carries a game makes sense for him.

So I think that Koolaid is going to have to tote the rock 20X per game. If the Pats go the full 19 games that's 380 carries for the year. That's a lot for a guy who *may* have the propensity to get nicked up. I like your Ricky Waters comparison, similar style players indeed.

I still would like to see them get another experienced back just to be safe. Labrandon Toefield is a likely candidate. I'm starting to wonder whether nor not Priest Holmes might make sense for the Pats if/when the Chiefs cut him loose.

 

[MrTibbs]

No way they cut him loose as long as LJ is sitting out because of money.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I hope Maroney carries more than 16 per game.

There might be some gameplans that call for him to be more of a receiver or they might get down big and abandon the run and decrese the # of carries he gets. Some plans might call for him to get the ball exclusively, thus getting about 20 or so carries a game. I just don't see him being a LJ or Dillon type where they use him to pound away at the D.

 

[patpatriot]

No way they cut him loose as long as LJ is sitting out because of money.

Jason Whitlock seems to think otherwise. That makes sense when you consider that LJ is not going to hold out all season especially when the Chiefs have this kid Kolby Smith making a big impression (Damn we whiffed on that one). Add Bennet to the mix and there is no room for Holmes once LJ is back in the fold. May not happen immediately but that could work in the Pats favor as well. Homes is only getting 800K from the Chiefs so they could easily cut him loose later in the season and eat that salary.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There might be some gameplans that call for him to be more of a receiver or they might get down big and abandon the run and decrese the # of carries he gets. Some plans might call for him to get the ball exclusively, thus getting about 20 or so carries a game. I just don't see him being a LJ or Dillon type where they use him to pound away at the D.

I'm not trying to be a hopeless optimist, but just how badly would things have to be going for this team to end up, say, down 10?

 

[Remix 6]

Faulk had 4-6 carries doing playoffs each game and did very well.

i see him getting right around 5 per game.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm not trying to be a hopeless optimist, but just how badly would things have to be going for this team to end up, say, down 10?

"Down big" was a poor choice of words. I should have said, "at a point during the game where options offensively are limited" As an example, if they are down 21-6 in the 3rd qtr, you need to start throwing. Also, the Pats seem to get into these funks during a game where they get stubborn and have Brady throw the team out of the offensive doldrums. That was more Weis than McKiddo.

 

[cstjohn17]

Good question. I always use the 2004 offense as my yardstick because it was the most balanced offense, pretty much a 50/50 balance run versus pass.

2007 Projections - I will base it on 500 carries and 500 passes
- 31 rushes per game
Maroney - 16 per game - 256
Morris - 5 per game - 80
Faulk - 5 per game -80
Brady - 2 (including 1 kneel down per game) - 32
Evans - 2 - 32
Other - 1.25 - 20

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 Stats

437 Points - 27.3 PPG
357.6 Total Yards

Passing
- 3750 Total Yards, 485 attempts
- 224.3 Passing Yards per game, 30.3 pass attempts per game

Rushing
- 524 Total Rushes, 2134 Total Yards
- 133.4 yards per game, 32.8 rushing attempts per game

2004 Rushers Attempts \ Attempts per game
Corey Dillon 345 21.6
Kevin Faulk 54 3.4
Patrick Pass 39 2.4
Cedric Cobbs 22 1.4
Tom Brady 43 2.7

Other 1.3
Rabih Abdullah 13 0.8
Bethel Johnson 2 0.1
David Patten 1 0.1
Larry Izzo 1 0.1
Rohan Davey 4 0.3

 

[mgteich]

I like your analysis and your breakdown. However, there are two open questions.

QUESTION ONE
Is 1000 a reasonable number of plays? Should our goal be more, if we actually have situations where we have more sustained drives and/or more clock killing drive in the 4th quarter?

QUESTION TWO
Is 50% realistic?
I suspect that it is. We may get many, many more yards in the passing game, but perhaps the plays can be equal.

 

[zippo59]

Good question. I always use the 2004 offense as my yardstick because it was the most balanced offense, pretty much a 50/50 balance run versus pass.

2007 Projections - I will base it on 500 carries and 500 passes
- 31 rushes per game
Maroney - 16 per game - 256
Morris - 5 per game - 80
Faulk - 5 per game -80
Brady - 2 (including 1 kneel down per game) - 32
Evans - 2 - 32
Other - 1.25 - 20

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 Stats

437 Points - 27.3 PPG
357.6 Total Yards

Passing
- 3750 Total Yards, 485 attempts
- 224.3 Passing Yards per game, 30.3 pass attempts per game

Rushing
- 524 Total Rushes, 2134 Total Yards
- 133.4 yards per game, 32.8 rushing attempts per game

2004 Rushers Attempts \ Attempts per game
Corey Dillon 345 21.6
Kevin Faulk 54 3.4
Patrick Pass 39 2.4
Cedric Cobbs 22 1.4
Tom Brady 43 2.7

Other 1.3
Rabih Abdullah 13 0.8
Bethel Johnson 2 0.1
David Patten 1 0.1
Larry Izzo 1 0.1
Rohan Davey 4 0.3

In 2004 Dillon averaged 23 carries per game if you consider that he didn't play in one game.

This year Maroney should get between 18-20 carries per game.

 

[RobertWeathers]

More Kevin Faulk per game averages per year (missed games included in the averages)

2006 1.56
2005 6.37 (Dillon was out for a period of time)
2004 4.9 (13 carries came vs CLE in which Dillon was out. Would have been 3.8 w/ ave carries per game w/ Dillon in lineup)
2003 11.9 (Was a part time starter w/ A. Smith)
2002 3.71
2001 2.73
2000 10.9 (Was a part-time starter w/ Redmond)

Faulk averaged 5.23 carries and 1.92 catches p/g in the playoffs.

Excluding 2003 and 2000, Faulk averaged 3.48 carries p/g.

 

[cstjohn17]

I like your analysis and your breakdown. However, there are two open questions.

QUESTION ONE
Is 1000 a reasonable number of plays? Should our goal be more, if we actually have situations where we have more sustained drives and/or more clock killing drive in the 4th quarter?

QUESTION TWO
Is 50% realistic?
I suspect that it is. We may get many, many more yards in the passing game, but perhaps the plays can be equal.

1) Yes, 1000 is reasonable. In 2004 we had 1009. I consider this the best year of our run and it has plenty of clock killing. See stats below for a more complete breakdown.

2) The split in 2004 was 485 passing and 524 rushing - 48% pass, 52%run
- we may be tempted to throw more this year but a better recipe is to have more rushes (as you said to run off the clock)

Past Stats
Year Pass Rush Total Percent PPG
2006 526 499 1025 51.3% 24.1
2005 565 439 1004 56.3% 23.7
2004 485 524 1009 48.1% 27.3
2003 538 473 1011 53.2% 21.8
2002 605 395 1000 60.5% 23.8
2001 482 473 955 50.5% 23.2

Averages
- 1001 plays per year, damn I am good, pretty good guess with 1000
- 533 passes
- 467 rushes

 

[RobertWeathers]

1) Yes, 1000 is reasonable. In 2004 we had 1009. I consider this the best year of our run and it has plenty of clock killing. See stats below for a more complete breakdown.

2) The split in 2004 was 485 passing and 524 rushing - 48% pass, 52%run
- we may be tempted to throw more this year but a better recipe is to have more rushes (as you said to run off the clock)

Past Stats
Year Pass Rush Total Percent PPG
2006 526 499 1025 51.3% 24.1
2005 565 439 1004 56.3% 23.7
2004 485 524 1009 48.1% 27.3
2003 538 473 1011 53.2% 21.8
2002 605 395 1000 60.5% 23.8
2001 482 473 955 50.5% 23.2

Averages
- 1001 plays per year, damn I am good, pretty good guess with 1000
- 533 passes
- 467 rushes

It'll be interesting to see how this year's offensive statistics play out. For the 1st time, we have regular gambrakers at SE and FL. With such a quick-strike offense, the number of plays go down. Take a look at the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. They ran on average about 950 plays a year in the Moss/Robert Smith era. Do we stay ball control and work the 7-8 play drives 4-5 times a game or do we go for it more often and have more 3-4 play drives 3 times a game? That concerns me a bit on the defensive side, but I'm sure BB will figure it out!

 

[cstjohn17]

It'll be interesting to see how this year's offensive statistics play out. For the 1st time, we have regular gambrakers at SE and FL. With such a quick-strike offense, the number of plays go down. Take a look at the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. They ran on average about 950 plays a year in the Moss/Robert Smith era. Do we stay ball control and work the 7-8 play drives 4-5 times a game or do we go for it more often and have more 3-4 play drives 3 times a game? That concerns me a bit on the defensive side, but I'm sure BB will figure it out!

It should be fun to watch, I don't think BB is about to go "Air Coryell" on us but we may see a few less plays. I am sure if he was asked he would say "I am only here to talk about the guys who are in camp" or "This Raider team is very very good, their record may not show it but they are a very solid team"...

Honestly he would say that the offense is out there to score points, if them come off a 20 second drive or a 9 minute drive the points are what matters.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It should be fun to watch, I don't think BB is about to go "Air Coryell" on us but we may see a few less plays. I am sure if he was asked he would say "I am only here to talk about the guys who are in camp" or "This Raider team is very very good, their record may not show it but they are a very solid team"...

Honestly he would say that the offense is out there to score points, if them come off a 20 second drive or a 9 minute drive the points are what matters.

I loved those 80s Chargers teams. If you recall, they ran the ball very well too w/ Chuck Muncie, James Brooks, Earnest Jackson..etc.. Anyway, I agree. I think we'll see something in the middle in terms of total plays from scrimmage. BB does like time of possession, though as it keeps his D rested.

In the end, I agree. He'd rather put a whole bunch of points on the board and make the opposing offense one-dimentional and try to play catch-up than having a tight game in the 4th qtr.

However, part of me does think he personally enjoys the 13-10 14-13 games but not with him coaching them!

 

[WhiZa]

I predict a higher rushing total this year because 1) Everyone will be predicting us to air it out 2) We'll be leading most games *knock on wood* and will need to kill the clock