Football Outsiders on Welker

[Oswlek]

I haven't read through this yet, but it seems from my skimming over it that Barnwell isn't optimistic about Welker.

FWIW, he has displayed a stunning lack of insight into the NE world in most of his previous work, although it is quite clear that he puts a lot of effort into things.

 

[patsgo]

I haven't read through this yet, but it seems from my skimming over it that Barnwell isn't optimistic about Welker.

FWIW, he has displayed a stunning lack of insight into the NE world in most of his previous work, although it is quite clear that he puts a lot of effort into things.

f--- barnwell

 

[Oswlek]

Here is what I posted on their board:

Amazingly enough, I don't disagree with much that this article says. If Moss and Stallworth stay healthy and play decent by their standards, they should get targetted quite a bit. It is a likely possibility that Welker's stats aren't going to be uber-impressive at the end of the year.

That said, what this article fails to touch upon is how important the slot WR is to NE's offense. Last year, they had significant trouble converting 1st downs because their best slot guy, Brown, was both old and outside to help the team break in the new WRs. Despite the obvious WR issues NE had, their best set was the spread. The love to have other teams get their nickle and dime CBs on the field, or have a WR/LB matchup and take advantage by having better than average 3rd and 4th guys. Obviously the 1 and 2 guys need to be good enough to command some attention, but NE generated a lot of their success in 2003 and 2004 with those spread matchups. Because of this, and how often NE spreads the field, a #3 guy to NE was much more valuable than he may be to another team.

Because of all of this, Welker seeing time in the slot is in no way a denegration of his ability. Unlike many teams who just line up their best guy off left and their second best off right and their third best guy in the slot, NE doesn't have that "rank by position". The slot is nothing more than where the WR will line up. If anything, the most important ranking is "where is the WR on Tommy's confidence list?" At this point, Welker is a solid #2, right behind Brown. And Brown and Welker won't be fighting for the same ball very often.

I completely agree that expecting more than 70 catches and 800 yards is really pushing it. I won't be surprised if it is closer to 50-60 and 600-700. But reading between the lines, I get the feeling that you think that Welker is not that good of a receiver. If that is what you are really getting at, I couldn't disagree more.

 

[rabthepat]

I have hope for Wes but I am keeping it realistic. The guy has 1 career TD.

 

[Oswlek]

I have hope for Wes but I am keeping it realistic. The guy has 1 career TD.

He also led his team in receptions last year and was second in yardage. I am not sure why those are less important that the fact that he hasn't caught that many TDs.

 

[DaBruinz]

I have hope for Wes but I am keeping it realistic. The guy has 1 career TD.

So, you're damning the guy because the Miami offense STUNK the last 3 year and they didn't have their best receiver on the field in Red Zone situations? Also, Welker isn't the best Red Zone receiver because of his height.

Also, just because Welker only has 1 TD reception, one only needs to look at our own Troy Brown who had NO TD receptions in his 1st 3 years with the Pats. Then he had a breakout year in 1997 when he had 6. But then he dropped back to 1 in 1998 and 1999.

Welker hasn't exactly had Tom Brady throwing to him the last 3 years in Miami. I mean, he's had AJ Feeley, Jay Fielder, Sage Rodenfels, Gus Ferrotte, Cleo Lemon, Daunte Culpepper, and Joey Harrington throwing to him over the the last 3 years. Talk about a QB carousel. I mean, the Miami QBs have only thrown 19,22 and 16 TDs respectively over the last 3 years.

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

I mean, he's had AJ Feeley, Jay Fielder, Sage Rodenfels, Gus Ferrotte, Cleo Lemon, Daunte Culpepper, and Joey Harrington throwing to him over the the last 3 years.

I'm not sure I'd let that crew paint my garage. Well maybe Gus.. but Culpepper would fumble the paint brush every 4th time he dipped it in paint, Harrington would get confused and paint the neighbor's garage, Feeley would ....oh nevermind.

 

[Seven Nation Army]

Did you guys read the comments at the bottom? They're pretty funny.

1. "And this article would incur the wrath of us frothing pats fans why, exactly? Too thoughtful? Too well researched? The relevant question seems to be will Welker play better than Jadougeche Gabgaffwell, and the answer seems to be (likely) yes."

2. "but Reche Caldwell was still thrown 102 passes, many of which he could actually see clearly."

3. "WR3 in 2005 (59 targets) when the Patriots had Deion Givens to work with."

 

[zippo59]

I expect Welker's numbers to be around where they were last year, except maybe with a few mor TDs.

The difference is that last year those numbers made Welker Miami's leading receiver, where as they would probably make him third or so in this offense. We need that good slot receiver, and we haven't really had it since 2003 or 2004.

But I think trying to ascertain Welker's ability based on what he did the last three years in Miami is useless for a few reasons: 1. As someone said, Miami's offense sucked. They've had terrible QBs, underachieving WRs (cough, Chambers, cough), a bad offensive line, and terrible playcalling. 2. reason is that Wes was an undrafted free agent. By naure that would mean he would get less opportunities and have to go above and beyond to try to supplant the high priced players that the coaches stick to stubbornly because they are desperately are trying to get something out of them, in order to get a return on their investment. Here in New England Welker will be treated like an established wide receiver who will be given plenty of chances to become a fixture of the offense.

 

[spacecrime]

I completely agree that expecting more than 70 catches and 800 yards is really pushing it. I won't be surprised if it is closer to 50-60 and 600-700. But reading between the lines, I get the feeling that you think that Welker is not that good of a receiver. If that is what you are really getting at, I couldn't disagree more.

Some people (and this guy must be one) get completely obsessed by certain stats. For a WR, it is things like ypc or total yardage, stuff like that, and they would fill a team with a bunch of #1 receivers because they would all catch 80 balls for 1100 yards and 12 TDs each. It doesn't work that way, and you will notice that we went after a slot receiver and the Colts used their first round pick on a slot guy.

But some people will never see beyond the stats. A DE with 10 sacks is better than a DE with 7 sacks, and a CB with 6 INTs is better than a DB with 5 INTs.

Life is simple for them.

 

[rabthepat]

So, you're damning the guy because the Miami offense STUNK the last 3 year and they didn't have their best receiver on the field in Red Zone situations? Also, Welker isn't the best Red Zone receiver because of his height.

Also, just because Welker only has 1 TD reception, one only needs to look at our own Troy Brown who had NO TD receptions in his 1st 3 years with the Pats. Then he had a breakout year in 1997 when he had 6. But then he dropped back to 1 in 1998 and 1999.

Welker hasn't exactly had Tom Brady throwing to him the last 3 years in Miami. I mean, he's had AJ Feeley, Jay Fielder, Sage Rodenfels, Gus Ferrotte, Cleo Lemon, Daunte Culpepper, and Joey Harrington throwing to him over the the last 3 years. Talk about a QB carousel. I mean, the Miami QBs have only thrown 19,22 and 16 TDs respectively over the last 3 years.

I like Wes' motor and speediness yet I am in a wait and see mode about him. I think there is the potential for him to succeed here in N.E. Yet, I think what the Patriots paid for him is not justified by his career so far. Most Fins fans I talk with loved the guy but think we way over paid.

To me, a guy who sould be praised more is Reche Caldwell. They guy came in for what $650,000, learned a new system, became our #1 receiver and played Patriot football. When he took that massive hit in the Bengals game and then sat on the bench and told them he wanted back in I was impressed.

Perhaps Doug Gabriel has made me a little suspicious of "potential" guys. People told me that the only thing that held Doug back in Oakland was all their QB and team problems just like Wes.

 

[RayClay]

Is that algebra or calculus? Fer Pete sake.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

So, you're damning the guy because the Miami offense STUNK the last 3 year and they didn't have their best receiver on the field in Red Zone situations? Also, Welker isn't the best Red Zone receiver because of his height.

Also, just because Welker only has 1 TD reception, one only needs to look at our own Troy Brown who had NO TD receptions in his 1st 3 years with the Pats. Then he had a breakout year in 1997 when he had 6. But then he dropped back to 1 in 1998 and 1999.

Welker hasn't exactly had Tom Brady throwing to him the last 3 years in Miami. I mean, he's had AJ Feeley, Jay Fielder, Sage Rodenfels, Gus Ferrotte, Cleo Lemon, Daunte Culpepper, and Joey Harrington throwing to him over the the last 3 years. Talk about a QB carousel. I mean, the Miami QBs have only thrown 19,22 and 16 TDs respectively over the last 3 years.

I was going to stay out of this one, but I laughed when I read that first paragraph. Yeah the Miami offense sucked huh? Well how come in the same offense in 2005 Chambers was able to catch 11 touchdowns? Welker simply isn't fast enough, big enough, and can't leap well enough to be in the redzone.

Calling him the best receiver on the Dolphins is just hilarious. You can't tell me you'd take him over Chambers, Booker or maybe even Ginn and Hagan for that matter. It's clear to me you didn't watch the Dolphins games last year. The reason lil Wessy had his catches is because the line was so bad that Harrington was quick to dump the ball off. Who is the beneficiary of this? The slot receiver, who was the slot receiver? Wes Welker.

This Wes Welker praising is a joke.

 

[rabthepat]

I was going to stay out of this one, but I laughed when I read that first paragraph. Yeah the Miami offense sucked huh? Well how come in the same offense in 2005 Chambers was able to catch 11 touchdowns? Welker simply isn't fast enough, big enough, and can't leap well enough to be in the redzone.

Calling him the best receiver on the Dolphins is just hilarious. You can't tell me you'd take him over Chambers, Booker or maybe even Ginn and Hagan for that matter. It's clear to me you didn't watch the Dolphins games last year. The reason lil Wessy had his catches is because the line was so bad that Harrington was quick to dump the ball off. Who is the beneficiary of this? The slot receiver, who was the slot receiver? Wes Welker.

This Wes Welker praising is a joke.

What is your opinion of him as a return guy? And remember, all fans sip from the Kool Aid challis once and a while.

 

[zippo59]

The more Aqua disses Welker, the more convinced I am that he will do great.

 

[JaredOfNazareth]

Some people (and this guy must be one) get completely obsessed by certain stats. For a WR, it is things like ypc or total yardage, stuff like that, and they would fill a team with a bunch of #1 receivers because they would all catch 80 balls for 1100 yards and 12 TDs each. It doesn't work that way, and you will notice that we went after a slot receiver and the Colts used their first round pick on a slot guy.

But some people will never see beyond the stats. A DE with 10 sacks is better than a DE with 7 sacks, and a CB with 6 INTs is better than a DB with 5 INTs.

Life is simple for them.

Well said spacecrime! I couldn't agree more. I also like the comment "where is the WR on Tommy's confidence list?"

Moss and Stallworth are more talented than Welker yet if Brady doesn't throw them the ball it won't matter. More so than any QB in the league Brady tries to develop an actual relationship with his receivers and teammates. He makes it work. Doug Gabriel did catch 3 TDs in NE...he has 8 for his career!

BTW I've been thinking Stallworth will have a great year. I hope the Moss trade has put a chip on his shoulder. I like him. He is very well spoken. He is my favorite new guy.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The more Aqua disses Welker, the more convinced I am that he will do great.

No kidding, anyone delusional enough to insist teflon paws is a better receiver than Welker.

 

[Oswlek]

The more Aqua disses Welker, the more convinced I am that he will do great.

THe funny thing is that, on another thread I put my rationale behind why I wouldn't trade Welker for Chambers - not necessarily that Welker is better, but that he is the better fit.

Of course Aqua just replied with a "no he's not" and completely ignored the argument. Deny all you want, but at least give me a reason.

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

First off, I don't see a huge problem with the article. I think that it is thorough, well written, well-reasoned, and thoughtful.

That being said, I would only tweak his numbers a little bit (adjusting for some items prev. posted on this string... Brady's confidence in Welker being high on my list... and our love in NE of the "short routes" (incl. screens) that he mentions)... I don't think it's a bad article

At the end of the day, he's basically saying that Moss and Stallworth will have roughly 3 catches each per game (each) and that Welker will have 2 catches per game as a result of how deeply spread Brady's attack has been in the past. My argument, along with (it seems) others here... is that Brady will utilize Welker as a weapon more... and take some targets from Moss/Stallworth and get them over to Welker instead (while keeping his high % of catches to targets). We are entitled to our opinions, but it's hard to disagree with the FO overall approach.

How many catches do you give Welker at the end of the season? I have him at roughly 60 catches for 750/800 yds... with 3 or 4 touchdowns... I'm a lot higher than FO... but I also would estimate my numbers for Stallworth and Watson down from theirs.

That being said, I STILL think that Welker is a great fit on this squad... and yes, I'd rather have Welker on the Pats than Chambers.... is Chambers a better WR, I guess so... but not for us.

Also, Welker brings outstanding talent on our special teams... is a full on "Patriots guy", is our reserve kicker... AND... and this is very important to me, plays each down like it's one of the times that he's going to catch the ball and break it into the endzone for 6.... that takes a LB/Saf off the field (whether through packaging ala nickel or stripping a LB/Safety off of another set) so that Maroney/Watson/Faulk/Davis can break out and do their thing.

In a one back/three rec. set, TE stays in, but (IMO) Welker, Stallworth and Moss strip off minimum 4 defenders.... TE must account for 1... leaves 6 defenders covering Maroney with 5 blockers in front of him... and this assumes that the SS is not backpedaling a little bit to "help" account for the deep attack from Stallworth/Watson (assuming that the FS has to wheel over to Moss on almost every play). If the SS is stuck in run/pass cover.... then it's down to 5.5 AND the rush to Brady s/b insignificant (without a monster like Freeney/Peppers on the field).

I'm pleased with the Welker pickup and am not turned-off by this write up. At the end of the day, 1 catch per game difference betw. Welker and Moss isn't that big of a deal, is it? Heck, it's expected, right?

 

[DaBruinz]

I was going to stay out of this one, but I laughed when I read that first paragraph. Yeah the Miami offense sucked huh? Well how come in the same offense in 2005 Chambers was able to catch 11 touchdowns? Welker simply isn't fast enough, big enough, and can't leap well enough to be in the redzone.

Calling him the best receiver on the Dolphins is just hilarious. You can't tell me you'd take him over Chambers, Booker or maybe even Ginn and Hagan for that matter. It's clear to me you didn't watch the Dolphins games last year. The reason lil Wessy had his catches is because the line was so bad that Harrington was quick to dump the ball off. Who is the beneficiary of this? The slot receiver, who was the slot receiver? Wes Welker.

This Wes Welker praising is a joke.

Listen, Welcher, I can and DO say that I would take Welker over Chris Chambers and Marty Booker and most certainly over the significantly over-rated Ted Ginn and Derek Hagan. Why? Because Welker is a much better SLOT receiver than any of them.

As for what is clear to you, you're a friggin Dolphins Homer who lies on a regular basis. I can tell you that I watched 8 or 9 Dolphins games last year and one of the biggest reasons that Welker was getting the ball is because he was getting open. Period. Not just because your O-line stunk, but because he was getting open.

Now, about your claim that the Miami offense didn't stink in 2005 and your "proof" being the Chambers had 11 TDs. Chambers having 11 TDs doesn't mean a DAMN THING. The fact remains that the Miami offense only had 22 passing TDs and 11 running TDs that year. And this past year, they only had 16 and 6. That is HORRIBLE. You'd know that if you could stop being a homer for a minute.

OH, and one last thing. If Welker is so "slow" then how is it that Marty Booker, who runs a 4.65-40 is so good? BTW, since you missed it, Welker runs about the same at 4.64.