Thursday + Draft = Who do the Celtics pick?

[Real World]

Ok, it's late, and I'll post my thoughts tomorrow. I'll start this by saying that I think there is some good, to very good talent in this draft (after the big 2). I'm hoping the Celtics keep the #5 pick, and draft someone to grow with Big Al, Rondo, Green, etc..This is a chance to aquire an all-star caliber talent. I'll post the past 15 years of #5 picks tomorrow so you can see some of the names taken.

Anyhow, who do you think the Celtics should draft at #5?

 

[BradyManny]

Ok, it's late, and I'll post my thoughts tomorrow. I'll start this by saying that I think there is some good, to very good talent in this draft (after the big 2). I'm hoping the Celtics keep the #5 pick, and draft someone to grow with Big Al, Rondo, Green, etc..This is a chance to aquire an all-star caliber talent. I'll post the past 15 years of #5 picks tomorrow so you can see some of the names taken.

Anyhow, who do you think the Celtics should draft at #5?

Interesting, I look forward to seeing what the 5 spot has yielded in that time span.

I stand by thinking they either have to trade the pick for a vet, or keep the pick, trade PP and blow it up. As I said in the other thread, I would prefer the former, but would accept the latter.

I think adding #5 to the mix and keeping PP just doesn't jive. You don't get much better in the short term, and your also keeping yourself in that middle of the pack and preventing yourself from getting better long term.

Who do I hope they take at #5? I like Jeff Green but it seems like he's a reach there. A lot of mocks I've seen recently having us take Noah and I guess I could live with that. Nobody excites me all that much unless the plan is to blow it all up and really make these youngsters the core for the future down the road. Anybody in the Noah, Brewer, Green, Horford, Wright, Yi group would be solid - but not special - additions.

 

[PonyExpress]

The Celtics are going to draft Yi for business reasons.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

The last time there was this much excitement for the #1 pick (LeBron), Wade was drafted #5.

I didn't follow college at all last year, so I have nothing useful to add on who they should draft.

 

[Real World]

Here is a list of #5 picks over the last 20 years. As you can see there are some very good players, some all-stars, some JAG's (just another guy), and a couple of busts. More often than not, a servicable player, to very good player is found. The players in italics are notables that were taken after the #5 pick of that year, but still inside the lottery. I did that because it means that good players were there for the taking and a team missed, or to show that there was more than 1 good player available at #5 in most instances. None of the picks shown are outside of the lottery.

2006
Shelden Williams, Duke - still early

2005
Raymond Felton, North Carolina - still early

2004
Devin Harris, Wisconsin - Deng, Igudaula, Bierdins

2003
Dwyane Wade, Marquette - Kaman, Heinrich

2002
Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Italy - Amare Staudameire, Caron Butler

2001
Jason Richardson, Michigan State - Joe Johnson, Rich Jefferson

2000
Mike Miller, Florida - J.Crawford

1999
Jonathan Bender, Picayune HS (Miss.) - Wally Sz., Andre Miller, Rip Hamilton, Marion, J.Terry, C. Maggette

1998
Vince Carter, North Carolina - Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce

1997
Tony Battie, Texas Tech - Tracy McGrady

1996
Ray Allen, Connecticut - Antoine Walker, Kobe Bryant

1995
Kevin Garnett, Farragut (Chicago) HS - No one of note

1994
Juwan Howard, Michigan - Eddie Jones

1993
Isaiah Rider, UNLV - Vin Baker, Allan Houston

1992
LaPhonso Ellis, Notre Dame - Tom Gugliotta

1991
Steve Smith, Michigan State - Brian Williams, Terrell Brandon

1990
Kendall Gill, Illinois - Tyrone Hill

1989
J.R. Reid, North Carolina - Mookie Blaylock

1988
Mitch Richmond, Kansas State - Hersey Hawkins, Rex Chapman, Rony Seikaly

1987
Scottie Pippen, Central Arkansas - Kevin Johnson, Horace Grant, Reggie Miller

 

[BradyManny]

Great work RealWorld - thanks for posting those picks, def nice to see. It's funny just looking back at that drafts you can immediately tell how much thinner the talent is these days.


The fifth pick has yielded some great players:
Dwyane Wade
Vince Carter
Ray Allen
Kevin Garnett
Steve Smith
Mitch Richmond
Scottie Pippen

And some serviceable ones:
Jason Richardson
Mike Miller
Tony Battie
Juwan Howard
Kendall Gill
LaPhonso Ellis


I think I come to a similar conclusion. The 5th spot seems like a good bet to at the very least get a serviceable player, a decent shot at a player with great upside. Of course, there are busts in there, as to be expected.

This draft seems like it's no different. There are a bunch of solid players we can get, I don't think any will be in the great category - Pippen, Wade, Richmond, Garnett, Allen, etc. - but I can think of at least 5 players at that spot I'd be OK with.

I still think that might leave us a piece short of contending, but I'm becoming more and more OK with keeping this pick and adding it to the puzzle for now.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Well the possibilities include Al Horford, B. Wright, Yi, Conley, Brewer, Noah, Green, etc. I think the pick has to come from that group. If one of those names aren't called then the Celtics are likely trading down. I'm in favor of a big man myself. The Celtics are an undersized team currently.

 

[Real World]

Yeah, I'm on the draft a big man band wagon. I think the C's know they have to draft big. Personally, I like Yi. I know he is a risk, but I think he's the real deal. 7 footers with his physical abilities are rare. I doubt he'll be a bust, and at worst would probably be a servicable player. If they are thinking Noah, then they could move down to #8-10 and still get him I think. I'd like Horford, but he'll be gone. The key for the Celtics is to have Conley taken either #3, or #4.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Yeah, I'm on the draft a big man band wagon. I think the C's know they have to draft big. Personally, I like Yi. I know he is a risk, but I think he's the real deal. 7 footers with his physical abilities are rare. I doubt he'll be a bust, and at worst would probably be a servicable player. If they are thinking Noah, then they could move down to #8-10 and still get him I think. I'd like Horford, but he'll be gone. The key for the Celtics is to have Conley taken either #3, or #4.

My only problem with Yi is that the single most important ability is being able to keep up with the game. There is no time to think out there, and lots of big guys struggle with that. The days of big plodding centers who act slowly are over.

He may very well have the athleticism and the ability to shoot the ball, but we do not know if he can handle "game speed." I don't like the unknown of my #5 overall pick to be the most important skill. If he lacks it and cannot adjust he'll be worthless.

Of course, if he can play at NBA speed he could be a star. It's high-risk/high-reward, I just think there is too much risk at #5. I'd also feel much better about it if I thought the chance he succeeds was even 50%, which I don't. Is 10% chance of stardom, 20% chance of being good, 30% chance of him being servicable, and 40% chance he's a bust worth it? Obviously those numbers were pulled out of nowhere, but it illustrates my thinking.

Either way, he'd be fun to watch. The Pats would need a Korean and the Bruins a Filipino and Boston will be a hotbed of Asian sports.

 

[Real World]

Yi is a terrific athlete. He's got something like a 38" vertical. He blew people away with his combine numbers for speed and agility. The question with him is the level of competition he's faced, and how that will translate into the NBA. At any rate, the word is the C's are focused on Jeff Green at #5. Nothing sexy, and I'm not overly excited about him, but in Danny I trust.

 

[everlong]

I think they should take Green. He should be there at 5 but if there's an upset and he's gone Bradford would be my second pick.

 

[bakes781]

My choice would be Jeff Green as well. The hype on this Yi kid scares me.

 

[BelichickFan]

Yi could be a C (hey, it rhymes )

From RotoWorld :

According to ESPN's Andy Katz, the Celtics are leaning toward taking Yi Jianlian with the No. 5 pick in Thursday's draft.

Joakim Noah, Jeff Green and Corey Brewer are still in the mix as well. In addition, the Celtics worked out USC's Nick Young on Wednesday, but it would be shocking to see the C's take him at No. 5. The Celtics appear to have no shot at getting Shawn Marion or Jermaine O'Neal and will keep the fifth pick. If the Hawks were to take Yi at No. 3 and Memphis took Mike Conley at No. 4, the Celtics would surely grab Al Horford at No. 5. And that would probably be the best-case scenario for the team.

 

[BradyManny]

Yi is a terrific athlete. He's got something like a 38" vertical. He blew people away with his combine numbers for speed and agility.

I don't know why anyone would be down on Yi at this point...who could actually know enough about the guy to think anything negative about him?

I agree, in Danny, I trust - when it comes to drafting.

 

[DarrylS]

I hope whoever they draft will help bring this franchise, old time Celtics fan who grew up watching Cousy, Russell et al.. I miss the glory days.. with that being said do not particularly care for the Yi kid, too much of an unknown.. if Danny F's this up, this franchise will be irrevelant for another 5-6 years.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

If they keep it , please no YI.... Jeff Green would be the right choice..

 

[BradyManny]

If they keep it , please no YI.... Jeff Green would be the right choice..

Again, I challenge you why Yi isn't the right choice. We haven't seen him play.

I guess on the flip side, you could easily say why would someone say Yi IS the choice, but to dismiss him completely doesn't seem right either.

As RealWorld says, I have faith in Ainge's drafting ability, if Ainge has seen enough from Yi to determine he's worth the pick, that's good enough for me.

 

[bakes781]

Again, I challenge you why Yi isn't the right choice. We haven't seen him play.

I guess on the flip side, you could easily say why would someone say Yi IS the choice, but to dismiss him completely doesn't seem right either.

As RealWorld says, I have faith in Ainge's drafting ability, if Ainge has seen enough from Yi to determine he's worth the pick, that's good enough for me.

Yeah but he's been described as a high risk/high reward player. We don't need another AC Earl.

 

[dhamz]

I don't know why anyone would be down on Yi at this point...who could actually know enough about the guy to think anything negative about him?

What we do know doesn't sound like 2 red flags to you:

1) Is 3 years older than he claimed
2) Refused to workout against other NBA draft prospects for fear it would cause him to slip in the draft

That said, the two stars in this draft are long gone by 3, nevermind 5. The guy everyone thinks is the third best prospect (Horford) is being described by many as projecting to a 12 pt/8 reb player in the Dale Davis mode.

Yi is probably the only other guy in the draft who potential to be a star. He probably would also be voted most likely lottery bust. You can't argue with Danny rolling the dice on him tonight based on the current state of the franchise.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Yeah but he's been described as a high risk/high reward player. We don't need another AC Earl.

I've seen Acie Earl. And Yi is no Acie Earl. For one he doesn't have cement blocks attached to his feet. For two he can actually shoot. I've seen clips that show him shooting easily from international 3 range, and he has a nasty, nearly unblockable turnaround jumper.

Come on guys these comparisons are ridiculous when you have no real info on the guy.
It's like me claiming that Pau Gasol, before he came out, is the next umm Kandiman or something. I would have no basis on making the assertion.
Check out Gasol's scouting report. Looks similar to Yi's in the negatives, although nobody has claimed that Yi doesn't have intensity as far as I know.
He turned out okay though didn't he?
http://www.nbadraft.net/profiles/paugasol.htm

Let's be realistic, who else that is a 7 footer with athleticism will be available at #5? The only other alternatives are Hawes and Noah.
Noah has no outside shot to speak of. Hawes is probably Yi's only real competition as a 7 foot big man, although he is nowhere near as quick and athletic.

The fact is that the Hawks are seriously considering taking Yi at #3. We'll be lucky to have him available at #5 because a 3/4 of Yi/Horford has the C's picking from Hawes/Noah. Green if you're looking to draft a player to replace PP at SF.
http://hawks.portspaces.com/post/hawksbasketblog/draft_preview_yi_jianlian.html

Check out the links to his clips on 56.com. It will make you feel better if/when Yi's name is announced tonight.
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=670574&highlight=&sid=b9baf2848b0aed766ac763dec33f9bbc