Schilling struggles in ATL

[Stokes]

Obviously Curt had a rough outing yesterday in Atlanta, and didn't top 90 on the radar gun. Just heard on WEEI that he is coming back to Boston for an MRI on his arm. Hopefully he just has a little dead arm and needs a break, nothing more.

 

[Foley]

Schilling since the allstar break last year: 11-8 4.37ERA 1.40WHIP. 205 hits allowed in 171 innings.

Even if he is experiencing some tired arm or something to that effect, he has been a mediocre pitcher for about a full season now. Expecting Schilling to be anything more than marginally above league average is expecting far too much of him. I certainly hope that I'm wrong and he starts pitching great from now on, but I'm pretty sure that Curt Schilling the Ace has turned into Curt Schilling the inconstant 4th starter.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Schilling since the allstar break last year: 11-8 4.37ERA 1.40WHIP. 205 hits allowed in 171 innings.

Even if he is experiencing some tired arm or something to that effect, he has been a mediocre pitcher for about a full season now. Expecting Schilling to be anything more than marginally above league average is expecting far too much of him. I certainly hope that I'm wrong and he starts pitching great from now on, but I'm pretty sure that Curt Schilling the Ace has turned into Curt Schilling the inconstant 4th starter.

I think you're exaggerating the meaning of mediocre.

He has an ERA+ of 107 this year. He's better than league average. Is he an ace? Of course not. Does he give you a chance to win when he pitches? Yes. Thankfully the Sox already have Beckett and Daisuke and don't need Curt to be the ace.

Hopefully it's just a dead arm period. The health of the pitching staff allows the Sox to shut him down anyway. I doubt anyone expecting him to be healthy all season.

 

[BradyManny]

Schilling since the allstar break last year: 11-8 4.37ERA 1.40WHIP. 205 hits allowed in 171 innings.

Even if he is experiencing some tired arm or something to that effect, he has been a mediocre pitcher for about a full season now. Expecting Schilling to be anything more than marginally above league average is expecting far too much of him. I certainly hope that I'm wrong and he starts pitching great from now on, but I'm pretty sure that Curt Schilling the Ace has turned into Curt Schilling the inconstant 4th starter.

I think this is probably a depressing dose of reality.

To be honest, after what he did for us to get us the ring in 04, I could care less what he does for us the rest of the way. What he gave us last season was a huge bonus.

Even though I have a HUGE appreciation for him as a competitor and I truly admire him as a player, I think Curt Schilling has one of the most annoying public personas in sports. Without fully getting into how he annoys me with his off-the-field attention-whoring, let me just say he is a PR machine unto himself, so ridiculously concerned with his own self-image you'd think he was in politics. His most recent play, the "I'll still take the 13 mill even though I almost just pitched a no-hitter" only to be followed up by the revelation that he's been "hurt all year", seems like a good example of this. No wonder the guy wanted his extension so bad, he was in pain, and at his age, you never know if a given injury will be what breaks you down.

He really used his weekly visits to the EEI morning show to try and subtly play all of Boston against the Red Sox FO for not extending him.

 

[Foley]

I think you're exaggerating the meaning of mediocre.

He has an ERA+ of 107 this year. He's better than league average. Is he an ace? Of course not. Does he give you a chance to win when he pitches? Yes. Thankfully the Sox already have Beckett and Daisuke and don't need Curt to be the ace.

I think mediocre is being a tad kind. After having a good April, Schilling has put up a 4.70ERA and 1.50WHIP since the start of May. That ERA is good for second worst among Red Sox starters in that time, while the WHIP is good for worst. Schilling's WHIP, OBA, BAA, k/9 and h/9 are either the worst or second worst marks of his career as a starter, and despite him holding the record for consecutive starts of at least 5IP, he has failed to do that twice this year.

He certainly still gives the team a chance to win and I haven't written him off yet, but right now he is performing like a 4th starter.

 

[patsfanofNC12]

Schilling has just gone on the DL after flying back to Boston to have an MRI done. Terry Francona said Schilling has been fighting tendinitis.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/a...t_id=2038365&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

[Danny Boy®]

The latest report on Curt is that he drinks too many beers and spends too much time on his computer instead of working out.

Hey Curt, earn that contract for next year, lose some weight ya fat bastid!

 

[Double G]

I'll take my chances with Tavares (has there been a more underated/underappreciated pitcher on this team) and Lester anyday.

As others have pointed out, after 2004, anything he does is a bonus. Father time catches up to all pro atheletes at some point, looks like Curt is in "The twilight of his career."

The no hitter attempt seems to have taken alot of steam out of him, just like last year if I'm not mistaken against Baltimore when he threw something like 130 pitches and was toast for awhile afterward.

Looks like Theo made the right move by not resigning Pedro and Curt, to bad shortstop has been a complete FUBAR for the past three years..............

 

[Foley]

If Lester replaces Schilling in the rotation and pitches well I'd love to see what they do when Schilling comes back. They won't bump Schilling out of the rotation, Tavarez has been fantastic (5-2, 3.45ERA, 1.35WHIP since his first 3 starts of the year) and shouldn't be bumped out, and if Lester does well I'd think they'd want to keep him up instead of moving him back and forth from Pawtucket to Boston. The obvious answer is to move Tavarez into the bullpen, but as of late hes been one of their better starters.

And if Tavarez is moved to the pen or Lester back to AAA, I wonder how much slack they give Schilling if he continues to struggle.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I think mediocre is being a tad kind. After having a good April, Schilling has put up a 4.70ERA and 1.50WHIP since the start of May. That ERA is good for second worst among Red Sox starters in that time, while the WHIP is good for worst. Schilling's WHIP, OBA, BAA, k/9 and h/9 are either the worst or second worst marks of his career as a starter, and despite him holding the record for consecutive starts of at least 5IP, he has failed to do that twice this year.

He certainly still gives the team a chance to win and I haven't written him off yet, but right now he is performing like a 4th starter.

I still think you're punishing Schilling unfairly when you compare him to A) his past, and B) the other Sox starters.

Mediocre wouldn't be starting for the Sox this year. Mediocre is a 4th starter on a bad team. I guess I'm just getting caught up on the word.

league average (or slightly above) has value. It's not worth $13M, but it has value. I'll happily take a 40-something Schilling as a #3 starter in the playoffs.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

As for Lester, I don't want to see him back in the majors yet. He was a 5-inning guy last year, and I want him to develop into more than that. They also just recently let him start throwing his cutter again. Let him learn to dominate AAA guys while keeping his pitch count down

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

If Lester replaces Schilling in the rotation and pitches well I'd love to see what they do when Schilling comes back. They won't bump Schilling out of the rotation, Tavarez has been fantastic (5-2, 3.45ERA, 1.35WHIP since his first 3 starts of the year) and shouldn't be bumped out, and if Lester does well I'd think they'd want to keep him up instead of moving him back and forth from Pawtucket to Boston. The obvious answer is to move Tavarez into the bullpen, but as of late hes been one of their better starters.

And if Tavarez is moved to the pen or Lester back to AAA, I wonder how much slack they give Schilling if he continues to struggle.

actually, the obvious move would be moving Wakefield to the bullpen.

 

[Foley]

I still think you're punishing Schilling unfairly when you compare him to A) his past, and B) the other Sox starters.

Mediocre wouldn't be starting for the Sox this year. Mediocre is a 4th starter on a bad team. I guess I'm just getting caught up on the word.

league average (or slightly above) has value. It's not worth $13M, but it has value. I'll happily take a 40-something Schilling as a #3 starter in the playoffs.

April: 3.27ERA (137ERA+), 1.09WHIP
May: 4.03ERA (111ERA+), 1.55WHIP
June: 5.79ERA (76ERA+), 1.41WHIP

Had he been league average and put up a 100-110ERA+ the entire season than it would be fine and not much of a concern. But hes been getting worse as the season goes on and has become tremendously inconsistent. I have no issue with league average and recognize its importance, but there is a difference between being league average and being great sometimes and awful the rest. The fact that he has been so inconsistent and declining at such a rate doesn't give me a lot of confidence that he'll hold a league average ERA for long.

actually, the obvious move would be moving Wakefield to the bullpen.

A reliever with a personal catcher is not going to work, and Wakefield has already said that he doesn't want to pitch with anyone other than Mirabelli behind the plate.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I see what you're saying, and it is valid and makes complete sense. I guess I just don't see his decline as this season progressed to mean that he's done for good.

I wanted him on the DL before this, and I'm thrilled to see him on it now. If he comes back, pitches reasonably well, and starts declining I want him on the DL again. With a healthy staff and Pauley, Gabbard, Hansack, and Lester being reasonable replacements there's no reason to not rest the old guy.

And if he doesn't want to go on the DL, tell him to suck it up and really put the team first. I hate this notion that a guy serves the team better by playing injured the rest of the year rather than getting healthy. Lowell should be on the DL right now because I'd rather have 15(+?) games of Hinske + healthier Lowell than injured Lowell for the rest of the year. Similarly, I love the fact that Yankees keep throwing the corpse of Johnny Damon out there rather than getting him healthy and productive.

A reliever with a personal catcher is not going to work, and Wakefield has already said that he doesn't want to pitch with anyone other than Mirabelli behind the plate.

Wakefield doesn't NEED a personal catcher. He likes it, and Varitek likes not having to catch Wakefield, but they can deal. Wakefield is going to have to deal when the team gets rid of Mirabelli this offseason (oh dear God I hope so) anyway. Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Tavarez are all out-performing him. In the hypothetical Schilling returns and Lester is brought up, and that leaves Wakes the odd man out.

He might have to either go to the pen or retire soon anyway, as the young guys are going to push him out. maybe next year, 2009 at the latest, we're looking at Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, and Bucholz as holding down 4 spots. That leaves only 1 spot for either Wakes, a free agent, or another young guy like Bowden. I guess you can just let Wakes keep it and ignore FA starting pitching for awhile (except for re-signing Beckett in '10 or whenever he's up).

ah crap, i counted my chickens. what's the chance Bucholz gets hurt next week now?

*edit* if Tavarez likes Boston and would cost something reasonable I'd try to re-sign him after this year. I'd rather have Tavarez starting the next 4 years than Wakefield. nevermind, he's 34 and that's crazy talk. I'm going to miss JT when he's gone, though. The guy is nuts.

 

[Foley]

I see what you're saying, and it is valid and makes complete sense. I guess I just don't see his decline as this season progressed to mean that he's done for good.

I'm not saying that hes done and I believe he is still a valuable guy to have around, I'm just saying that if he goes 13-9 with a 4.60ERA this season no one should be shocked. But like you said hes not the Ace and isn't relied on to win 17-22 games, so going 13-9 won't be a crushing blow to the team.

Wakefield doesn't NEED a personal catcher. He likes it, and Varitek likes not having to catch Wakefield, but they can deal. Wakefield is going to have to deal when the team gets rid of Mirabelli this offseason (oh dear God I hope so) anyway. Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Tavarez are all out-performing him. In the hypothetical Schilling returns and Lester is brought up, and that leaves Wakes the odd man out.

He might have to either go to the pen or retire soon anyway, as the young guys are going to push him out. maybe next year, 2009 at the latest, we're looking at Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, and Bucholz as holding down 4 spots. That leaves only 1 spot for either Wakes, a free agent, or another young guy like Bowden. I guess you can just let Wakes keep it and ignore FA starting pitching for awhile (except for re-signing Beckett in '10 or whenever he's up).

As much as I would love for Mirabelli to go, I'm not too confident it will happen considering the FO passed on signing a decent backup this past offseason despite a pretty decent crop of them (Greg Zaun, Rod Barajas). As long as Wakefield is a starter Mirabelli will be on the team. And Wakefield will be a starter until he no longer gives league average innings and is thus no longer a bargain at $4M a season. Unless he retires (which is never out of the question) than there is no reason for the Sox to get rid of him or move him to the pen. He may not be great and usually hovers around league average, but as long as he continues to do that than he is he is a bargain.

I know its nice to project a rotation with lots of homegrowns in it, but that is still a while away. Buchholz has yet to pitch in AAA and likely needs a year or so once he does, and Bowden has yet to really pitch that well in AA. Bowden won't smell AAA until the start of next season at the earliest, so he probably won't be in Boston until mid-2009. If Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester and Buchholz all pitch well in Boston come 2008-2009, than leaving Wakefield in the rotation pitching league average innings is not a problem unless Bowden is wowing in AAA and really deserves a call-up. But mid-2009 is still a ways away. And as far as ignoring FA pitchers... great, they are too expensive as it as and being able to ignore them is a luxury.