Some Perspective on Samuel

[zippo59]

I think it would be stupid for him to hold out but I wouldn't put it past him because some of these players have so much damn pride. He might consider it a loss of face if he shows up after saying he would hold out until week 10. You can not underestimate this.

 

[patchick]

He might consider it a loss of face if he shows up after saying he would hold out until week 10.

This does worry me a bit. But if it comes to that, I'm hoping his agent steps in as the voice of reason/self interest: "Look kid, don't worry about losing face. For the extra $4.4 million you can buy a new face."

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I agree with AJ's points and that is why I think Asante's hold out will end the week before the first pre-season game. He will lose about $450,000 per game for each game he 'holds out" during the season. He just won't do that,IMO.

One point that hasn't been made is tha he is going to benefit this year by playing in back of what should be an awesome front seven. He should have a monster year playing in back of those guys. His value will be even greater to other teams in 2008 if he does.

That's not necessarily true though. His value to other teams this year is by most assessments here inflated due to his INT's. He may never get 10 again, and the attention that comes with that, and he may never again appear to be an impact playmaker on a team sorely lacking that on defense (god willing...) again. He may also get hurt or get jumped on the depth chart. All this too factors into his thought process.

I think Asante likes us, but he likes the idea of making the score of a lifetime RIGHT NOW because his stock and the market for it may never be higher. That's what this is all about. Does he want to do well and potentially to even better in a year or two, or does he want a max value deal right now because he knows that is an option. Just as his career being over in a heartbeat is an option.

I'd be fine with the former, but then I'm easy... I appreciate the difference between me at 55 (or even a 20 something QB who grew up playing golf with his successful business man dad) and a 26 year old from a hard scrabble background who did what it took to get this far when probably most of the guys he grew up with are dead or in jail or flipping burgers. Money often matters most to people who had less than nothing including hope or prospects before hard work and football presented them something almost beyond their wildest dreams. Often times in those cases, they can never have too much money going forward because when all this is gone it will be what continues to seperate them (and often entire extended families) from their less than heartwarming roots.

Tom did what he did because he aspires to greatness. Tedy did what he did because he aspires to play winning football and achieving comfort level happiness. Many guys in this league did what they did because they aspired not to end up living in an apartment over a crack house. It's fine for fans to sit back and say invest wisely and be grateful you have more than most of us ever will (you greedy jerk). Well, these guys want to have enough that nothing bad or misfortunate can overtake them or theirs ever again once their ability to play this game is history. They've seen what happened to the generation that came before them. And given the fact that more than half of them will leave this game with some form of disability or other potentially dogging them for the rest of their lives, I just can't blame them.

I wish they all felt about playing here they way we do as fans, but then they know all too well how fickle our devotion to any of them is in this day and age. Once they cease to serve our purposes, we're on to the next guy who can. And if something goes wrong or they made some mistakes we're all too quick to launch into diatribes about personal responsibility for their own lives after football. Well folks, that is what Asante believes he is doing right now, being responsible for his life after football as he sees fit.

 

[fgssand]

No one is saying anything is the Patriots fault.
remember, while the Patriots are following the rules, so is Samuel. He has done nothing in violation of his contract. IMO, he is simply posturing, by the way.
I don't know if Id say he has trashed the organization. I think he has said he is unhappy with their offer. Thats not trashing to me.
I dont think he should be obligated to want to play here for less, if other teams are offering more. I can understand the loyalty factor, and I would have it personally, but I don't begin to think that the standard of loyalty we are talking about is at all a reasonble expectation for most NFL players.

I do not blame Asante for exercising his rights under collective bargaining agreement to seek his best deal, nor do I feel the Patriots should be blamed for franchising the player and then trying to make the decision that will be in the best interest of the football club.

While perhaps "trashing" the Patriots isn't quite the level Asante has stooped to, he certainly has been less than flattering saying how the Patriots are not being fair with him:

From 6/07...http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2007/06/05/samuel_see_you_in_week_10/

I'm not coming to camp," he said. "I'm not showing up until the 10th week [of the season]. I feel unappreciated. The way they're treating me is just wrong."


From 4/07...http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/10108712

This is to let everybody know that I'm not happy anymore and things are not going well," Samuel said in his first public comments since the Patriots franchised him. "At first I thought it was going well, but it's not.
"We have a difference of opinion in my value. They think I'm worth one price and the other teams think I'm worth a lot more. If a long-term deal can't be done at fair numbers for me and New England, then Iwant to be traded."
If a long-term deal cannot get done with New England and a trade to another team does not happen, Samuel said he also is prepared to take steps he would rather not and sit out this season.
"If it's best for me and my family," Samuel said

Whereas BB continues to praise Asante as a player that has done a lot for the team, means a lot to the organization and hopeful that something can be worked out.

 

[fgssand]

By that reasoning, doesn't it follow that this is NOT the fault of Asante Samuel, he's playing the rules and that is the way things were agreed to by the NFL owners?

You can have conflict without fault. Based on the current state of rumors, it sounds like Samuel has a couple of offers to his liking and MAYBE an offer of a first-round pick in trade to boot. The Patriots would prefer their starting CB, but won't pay him what team X has offered. That's a naturally ugly and acrimonious situation, leading to a lot of growling and posturing. Once the season's underway, though, that offer likely disappears and all Samuel gets from sitting out is a huge financial loss. I'd be astonished if his agent let him sit out more than a game.

Yup...agreed.....see my response to AJ....I feel both team and player are exercising their rights under the collective bargaining agreement.

I hapen to feel Asante is overvaluing his worth and underestimating what playing for this team is all about (then again he has two rings and is now looking for the big payday and I cannot fault him for that).

I feel BB will always make the best possible choice for what is in the best interest of the New England Patriots football club. (wouldn't ever want it any other way).

I think this will end up with Asante playing for the 7.9MM tag as it seems to be the best solution, period.

 

[spacecrime]

We do need perspective, as does Asante. The problem with your assessment Andy is that he's not going to get $13M this year in a long term deal. He's likely going to get $20M or more in guarantees. So for him the equation is <$8M vs. >$20M. 8..20...8...20 You don't have to be a mathmatical genius to figure this out.

I must be a mathematical moron because no matter how I work the numbers, Asante ALWAYS makes more in two years by being franchised and then signing a long term contract next year than by signing a long term deal this year. A LOT more.

I also cannot figure out, and no one has been able to explain, what Asante gains by holding out. What does he get for that $5 mil he is giving up?

He certainly can't force the Pats to sign a long term deal by holding out. Once July 15 passes, all he can do is play the one year.

Is the hold-out to force a trade? Or what? There must be some benefit to holding out of ten games and losing the money, else why would he threaten to do it?

 

[patfanken]

a couple MORE points:

1. Moe, your point are well reasoned, but they don't seem to take into concideration the Pats side to this debate. It is very clear, and I've said it many times, is that the difference in this negotiation is the $20MM Assante wants in Guarantees over the first 2 years, and the $8MM he would get being franchised, and the $12-14MM offered in the LT deal.

What I don't see, though its always reported as fact, are those "several" teams who Samuel's camps say are willing to pony up that kind of money. I think it is time that THOSE teams be identified...at least to the Pats. How real are those offers, and how many are just there it tweak the Pats.

2. Regardless of the impass, I STILL contend that sitting out the season or even 10 games has no real value for Samuel...other than the threat to do so. He is ONLY hurting himself

3. I think there are 2 compromised that can be offered. One would be for Samuel to split the costs of an insurance package that would protect him from injury. Splitting the costs would be a sign of good faith by the Pats, and would get him into camp on time....as I mentioned earlier in this thread.

4. The other one would be to review the initial long term offer (average of $6MM/yr and around $12MM in guarantees) and up the Guarantees. Inother words, give him a $10MM signing bonus and Guarantee 18-20MM over the 5 year deal.

5. I think the $9.5MM figure that is floating around here if the Pats franchise him again is low. $9.5MM is 120% of the franchise number TODAY ($7.87MM). The only thing we know about what the franchise figure will be NEXT year, is that it will be HIGHER. So if the Pats were to franchise Samuel a second year it would be at 120% of that HIGHER number, and more likely to be between $10-11+MM than $9.5.

6. Thus if Samuel IS franchised those 2 years he would end up making as much if not more than Clement will over those 2 years. The only difference would be that Samuel was made to actually EARN those dollars, while Clement COULD, if he chose, rest on his laurels.

7. IMHO, the ball is totally in Samuel's court to either broker the deal, sign the tender, or never play for the Pats again. I think the Pats have essentially moved on. If he comes back under their terms (the Bly deal, or the franchise tender) they are fine with it. IF he doesn't then they will have already moved on, like he was hurt.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

A couple of points:

1. GJAJ, That is an excellent point that isn't brought out enough. Granted Samuel did the work and became the player he is because of hard work and developing his talent. HOWVER, you cannot discount the contributions made to his play by the coaching staff and his teammates. They aren't the REASON he became the player he is now; they are PART of the reason.

Players discount this every day. It's human nature. It's why Lawyer and Ty aren't here any more - they bristled at the notion of the system making the player and therefore devaluing his talent.

3. BFan, you also make a great point that should be concidered. To take the injury situation out of the equation here is what he and the Pats should do. As part of the one year agreement, Samuel AND the Pats will share the expense of an insurance policy that would give Samuel 12 million dollars if he got a perment injury in 2007. That would probably cost between $500,000, and a million. Lets say its a million. The Pats up up $500K, and Sameul puts up one game check. Now, when he signs the deal, he is guaranteed $7.2MM net, and another 12 millon if he gets hurt. That's very close to the 20 million he wanted guarateed.
Now he gets the best of both worlds.

The Pats how good faith by putting up half the money, with the only stipulation that Samuel shows up to training camp on time. It makes great sense to the Samuel camp, and helps the Pats get him to camp ontime. He is protected against catistrophic injury, yet will still be a YOUNG FA for the coming season.

I don't think that would fly under the cap or with the NFLPA who would likely see it as a means to circumventing player long term contracts and movement. Whatever the team paid for the policy (or perhaps even what they required the player to assume) would be considered guaranteed compensation under the cap, and perhaps the value of the insurance policy would be some sort of NLTBE. This would also set a precedent, which is what fans so often fear in any deal short of the player capitulating to the team.

As for upping the offer, well that goes without saying is a compromise - but one the team may to entirely unwilling to make if they think he is in fact a $6M player period. The way teams get in cap trouble is overpaying for questionable talent. They've pegged him where they've pegged him, and it isn't as a Champ Bailey type talent. Something they also don't really need if they continue to focus on the front 7 and a SS formula.

His tag figure for 2008 would be the higher of the average of the top 5 in 2007 (not including his tag salary) OR 120% of his salary this season under the tag. The 120% bump is usually the greater figure. Only scenario that might change that landscape would be if Champ and a couple of the other top 5's get big deals this season.

And it would be a stretch to assume that the team would re-tag him, particularly if the price was a double digis payment, except to trade him. Because beyond that the tag goes to average of the top 5 highest paid players in the league - usually QB's, and the trade compensation goes from a 1st and 3rd to a lone 1st.

As for the reports of interest from other teams, they don't have to go public to convince fans. Asante and his agent know what they know, and the team probably has an inkling who may be interested too. And at the end of the day that's all that matters.

Why not just agree to let him go in 2008 in exchange for showing up in 2007.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I must be a mathematical moron because no matter how I work the numbers, Asante ALWAYS makes more in two years by being franchised and then signing a long term contract next year than by signing a long term deal this year. A LOT more.

Not this year he doesn't. And if he gets hurt maybe he never does.

 

[patchick]

I must be a mathematical moron because no matter how I work the numbers, Asante ALWAYS makes more in two years by being franchised and then signing a long term contract next year than by signing a long term deal this year. A LOT more.

Ah, but not ALWAYS...only if the market still perceives him as an elite corner a year from now! Lots of people here claim Samuel's a one-year wonder, right? Suppose he comes in and plays the season as the clear #2 corner behind Hobbs? This is a "strike while the 10-INT iron is hot" situation.

I also cannot figure out, and no one has been able to explain, what Asante gains by holding out. What does he get for that $5 mil he is giving up?

Looks to me like he gets bubkes. But that's from actually holding out. The potential gain from threatening to hold out is pretty sweet, if the Pats fall for it. The trick is that it's tough to make a credible threat when you'd suffer from the result even more than the other guy. Pretty much the only way is to convince them that you're beyond rationality into passion/vengence/etc. Classic brinksmanship. But would he really push himself over the brink (taking his agent along for the ride?) I don't buy it, and apparently the Pats don't either.

 

[fgssand]

Why not just agree to let him go in 2008 in exchange for showing up in 2007.

Because, we should be able to have our cake (Asante in 2007) and eat it too (value for him in 2008). He plays this year under the franchise and next year we trade him for a #1 in 2009 or a #2 in 2008.

I do not think we can afford to pay him next year anyway, considering we will have Warren to consider along with to a lesser extent, Paxton, Gay ,Wilson, Bruschi, Moss & Stallworth to think about.

 

[Triumph]

This does worry me a bit. But if it comes to that, I'm hoping his agent steps in as the voice of reason/self interest: "Look kid, don't worry about losing face. For the extra $4.4 million you can buy a new face."

If I'm not mistaken, the agent doesnt get a penny of that franchise tag.

Samuel is better off holding out to get more money.

 

[BelichickFan]

Why not just agree to let him go in 2008 in exchange for showing up in 2007.

That's a viable option but the Patriots chose not to do it with Branch so they probably would do the same this year. Of course, every year and circumstance is different but I doubt one year of Samuel is worth as much to Belioli as 5 years of who we could draft with a draft pick we would trade him for. Or, even more likely, we could get half a season of Samuel + 5 years of who we trade him for after Franchising him again in 8 months.

 

[patchick]

If I'm not mistaken, the agent doesnt get a penny of that franchise tag..

Ouch, totally forgot that. Kindly disregard all my previous agent-related comments.

That provision is a mistake by the NFLPA, IMO. I understand the idea but it can create a gulf between the player's interests and the agent's, which is always a danger. ("Go ahead Asante, you stick it to those lousy bums, you sit out until they agree to a trade! Doesn't cost me a penny.")

 

[Pats Fanatic]

If I'm not mistaken, the agent doesnt get a penny of that franchise tag.

Samuel is better off holding out to get more money.

You mean his agent not Samuel himself.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

If I'm not mistaken, the agent doesnt get a penny of that franchise tag.

Samuel is better off holding out to get more money.

You're mistaken. Agents are limited by the NFLPA who licenses them to a flat fee of 3% of the players contract as it is paid out (they don't get a % of anything until he gets it). Their fee for franchise and transition tag tenders is 2% the first year, 1.5% if the player is tagged a second year and 1% if he is tagged a third time.

 

[dhamz]

When the got the best I was indebted, when the got the worse I was a sore... I know it is about the money, but do not understand the childish behavior of more, more, more.. I know it is the system, but from my pea brain I think loyalty to the organization is paramount particular if they made me a better employee and increased my value.

I think fans are very selective about who this applies to.

David Givens - yes. Samuel - yes. A.Thomas - no. Welker - no.

 

[njpatsfan]

We do need perspective, as does Asante.

The REAL perspective necessary here is this: earning the average of the top 5 players at his position, Samuel will earn 11x the salary of the average U.S. worker at each game. Put another way, Samuel this year will earn as much as nearly 180 average Americans put together.

And he thinks that is an insult.

The problem with your assessment Andy is that he's not going to get $13M this year in a long term deal. He's likely going to get $20M or more in guarantees. So for him the equation is <$8M vs. >$20M. 8..20...8...20 You don't have to be a mathmatical genius to figure this out. Same with signing a long term deal here on the terms he's likely been offered to date. $6M vs. upwards of $9M, 6...9...6...9...

The problem with this assessment is that you are comparing two choices of which one, "likely to get $20M or more" is impossible, because he's been franchised. He plays for the Patriots, or he plays for no one. Regardless of any media speculation or team manipulation (Jets), you can't seriously believe that someone is going to fork over 2 1sts AND overpay.

The decision RIGHT NOW is between 8M for this year and risking getting the tag again, holding out 10 games and making only 3M, or signing a long term offer. So by your logic, 8 vs 3 vs 13 (or whatever) .... 8 ...3 ... 13, should be a no brainer right ?

Remember two other factors play into this. First, the longer it goes on, the more cap money gets locked up in trades and teams redoing deals. Second, if he decides to play the holdout card, it can only damage his overall value to other teams. Leaving the reduced stats and being off for a year. For if he thinks getting paid 8M this year is an insult, what's to stop him from holding out a year or two down the road when some other team overpays for another DB ?

The problem here is, much as it was with Deion,is there are teams reportedly willing to pay him what he wants at least absent trade compensation. He's not risking $8M for a pipe dream contract - it's out there. What most of us believe, including apparently this FO, is that represents a substantial overpay. And we would like Asante to acknowledge that and forego the chance to be wildly overpaid and just take a fair offer. Not going to happen. Realistically it ain't gonna happen with 7 out of 10 players.

7 out of 10 don't sign their franchise sheets and hold out ? Huh ? The reason most observers agree that he will play or sign is because holdout franchise players are so rare.

R

 

[PromisedLand]

Threatened holdouts in the NFL are common, actual holdouts rare....

I was intrigued by this statement, Andy. I realize no one keeps stats on "threatened holdouts", but you must have some basis for your statement. How many franchised players have ever held out until week 10? What is your estimate on the number of threatened holdouts per year?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://www.cantonrep.com/index.php?ID=359173&Category=17&subCategoryID=0

POOR ASANTE

Asante Samuel is being a bit of a, well ... . The former Round 4 pick out of Central Florida wants out of New England now that he has broken through as a solid starter. Within the NFL pay system, it's not as if the Patriots are treating him like cheap help. The team basically promised him almost $8 million for 2007 by designating him as a franchise player.

Tedy Bruschi, who has done far more for the Patriots' defense than Samuel during the current golden era, is in the final year of a four-year, $8.1 million contract. Bruschi hasn't whined. Teammates have noticed the difference.