2007 vs.....

[MoLewisrocks]

I think Brady regressed slightly last year. Yes, he had a patchwork receiving corp which is largely to blame for his struggles, but I recall Brady missing open receivers far more frequently than in previous years. Surprisingly to me, looking at the numbers, it seems his completion percentage for last year was in line with previous seasons.

That's because he didn't regress, his weapons (which have never been spectacular to begin with) did.

And incredible as it may seem, occasionally HOF QB's miss wide open receivers. Although when proficient QB's like Brady miss what appear on TV to be open targets, it's usually because they weren't open on time. Coaches tape will show that while broadcast feeds simply can't.

Last year's WR core struggled to get open period, and when they did it was often too late for the throw that Brady would have had to make a few seconds earlier. If they aren't open when he reads them in his progression, he has to move on in search of another option in his progression or be guilty of staring them down - which tends to lead to picks. If he has the time to return to a receiver who is coming open late his split second choices are still usually to ignore that and throw it away or try to put the ball up in an area where only his receiver (and not fast closing coverage who sees the same thing) has a shot at it. Sometimes that means leading the receiver and sometimes it means trusting him to adjust and come back for the throw (as opposed to hitting him flatfooted which an open Watson often unfortunately is). The only receiver he truly had that kind of rapore with in 2006 was a 35 year old slot receiver who unfortunately has lost a step over the last 2-3 seasons and isn't always quick enough to make the physical adjustment he is still mentally in synch with.

Tom's never consistently had the kind of receivers who due to a combination of size, speed and hands can be trusted to just go up and get throws even against tight coverage, which is a role Moss and Stallworth have both excelled at in their past. Guys who can be a little less precise in working an area because they have the physical talent to compensate for that. Those are the kind of guys whose mere presence allows a QB to make the kinds of plays that break a defeses back while opening up all sorts of opportunities for guys working underneath and across the middle as well as the RB's. This year will be interesting to say the least as a result.

 

[BradyManny]

But taking into accout the learning curve I expect them to be well behind the 2004 group for the full season. I just want them to get where they're going by playoff time!

We have to get past this idea that the Patriots receiving playbook is tougher than astrophysics. We're talking about adding 3 quality receivers to the mix, the learning curve is going to be a whole lot shorter.

 

[PatsSteve1]

My memory is terrible, but I distinctly recall several occaisons where Brady over threw guys who were wide open. I forget which game it was, but he missed a wide-open Watson on a play that would have been a sure touch down.

* He's missed open recievers every year, usually most early in games. I don't know who does this for snap.stats.com but if it's the same guy(s) each year it gives some idea on how Tom does each year and how many poor throws they attribute to him:

2006 79
2005 88
2004 81
2003 79
2002 97

If they are correct, he tied with 2003 for the fewest porr throws last year.

 

[patchick]

We have to get past this idea that the Patriots receiving playbook is tougher than astrophysics. We're talking about adding 3 quality receivers to the mix, the learning curve is going to be a whole lot shorter.

This isn't about the playbook, it's about timing and understanding between the QB and his receivers. When Steve Young became the 49ers QB, at first Jerry Rice groused a lot that Young didn't get him the ball just-so the way he liked it, like Joe had. It took a while for them to become the Young-to-Rice combo we remember. So while I'd love to see instant lightning from Moss & co, I expect a more typical learning curve.

 

[BradyManny]

This isn't about the playbook, it's about timing and understanding between the QB and his receivers. When Steve Young became the 49ers QB, at first Jerry Rice groused a lot that Young didn't get him the ball just-so the way he liked it, like Joe had. It took a while for them to become the Young-to-Rice combo we remember. So while I'd love to see instant lightning from Moss & co, I expect a more typical learning curve.

I used to think like you on this issue, but if Belichick and co. put such a high value on experience in the system, then they would've overpaid for Branch & Givens, and they wouldn't have bothered to go out and get Moss, Stallworth and Welker (2 of those MIGHT be one year rentals, though I doubt that) pushing Caldwell and Gaffney - who have experience with Brady under their belt - down on the depth charts.

Based on BB's actions, you have to acknowledge he clearly values talent over experience in the system and he has confidence these guys will play well in the system and do it in 07, b/c that might be their only season here.

 

[patchick]

I used to think like you on this issue, but if Belichick and co. put such a high value on experience in the system, then they would've overpaid for Branch & Givens, and they wouldn't have bothered to go out and get Moss, Stallworth and Welker (2 of those MIGHT be one year rentals, though I doubt that) pushing Caldwell and Gaffney - who have experience with Brady under their belt - down on the depth charts.

Well, on signing Moss, Stallworth and Welker...I never, ever suggested that talented receivers aren't necessary, just that they aren't sufficient. It takes a combination of talent with hard-earned chemistry to create a Young-to-Rice, a Manning-to-Harrison, etc.

As for the argument that if BB valued experience he would have paid for it, then does it follow that he values nothing because he never overpays for anything?

Based on BB's actions, you have to acknowledge he clearly values talent over experience in the system and he has confidence these guys will play well in the system and do it in 07, b/c that might be their only season here.

No I don't. Seriously, the Patriots made a strong offer to Givens, but Tennessee blew him away with a ridiculous offer they now regret. Branch wasn't just asking for $$$, which the Pats DID offer, he was asking to rip up a year of his existing contract. I don't see how declining those two demands demonstrates anything about valuing talent over experience. Besides, Branch had plenty of talent AND experience, so what lesson does it really teach?

 

[BradyManny]

As for the argument that if BB valued experience he would have paid for it, then does it follow that he values nothing because he never overpays for anything?

Right, but it wouldn't be truly be overpaying b/c both Givens and Branch would have a value for the Pats which would be greater than their value to any other team.

Maybe Brady-Moss in 07 isn't Manning-Harrison or Young-Rice overnight, but BB seems to think it will be better than Brady-Caldwell. You're talking to a guy who thought Caldwell, Gaffney, (healthy) Jackson would be perfectly suitable for the Pats next season - I've since realized that BB has decidely put a premium on pure talent/ability at the wide receiving position this offseason, and that the year of experience and chemistry Caldwell & Gaffney gained with Brady is far outweighed by the fact that Moss and Stallworth are more talented receivers....Plus, I think the assumption is that the talent and experience Moss and Stallworth have will allow them to gain chemistry with TB much faster.

 

[patchick]

think the assumption is that the talent and experience Moss and Stallworth have will allow them to gain chemistry with TB much faster.

I do agree with this, and fervently hope it comes to pass!