Football Outsiders bashes Fin Ginn Pick

[JoeSixPat]

Not sure if this has been posted or not but I figured anything that mocks the Dolphins might help cheer up a mourning Patriots' Nation.

In reviewing the Dolphins pick of Ted Ginn they extrapolate on why they think they think the Fins used the #9 pick on a return specialist.

I generally agree with their assessment - I don't expect Ginn to do much more than return kicks this year, if indeed he's even healthy - but its too early to declare him a bust obvioulsy. They do say good things about Beck - which I tend to agree with as well - I think he's got good potential... though depending on how Brady Quinn shakes out the Dolphins have a good chance to have blown their first and 2nd round picks in this draft.

Here's an excerpt: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/05/16/ramblings/four-downs/5142/

Nine receivers have been drafted out of the Big Ten in the first round since 2000. Of those nine, Ginn’s numbers coming out of school are comparable to his fellow Buckeyes — Santonio Holmes (who averaged nearly five yards more per catch) and Michael Jenkins (who’s been a bust with Michael Vick in Atlanta). His numbers are better than Bryant Johnson, who has also been mediocre for Arizona. Players like David “The Bomb D” Terrell and Charles Rogers outproduced Ginn by a large margin and were colossal failures in the NFL. The argument can be made that that college production in the Big Ten has little to do with NFL success.

Looking at Ginn’s measurables, though, doesn’t offer up much hope. Ginn’s listed weight is 178 pounds; no one smaller than that from 1999 on has become anything more than a competent wide receiver at the NFL level, and even those guys (Dennis Northcutt and Todd Pinkston) wouldn’t be worth first-round selections. The guy who Dolphins fans would like Ginn to be similar to, Washington’s Santana Moss, weighed 180 pounds, but he also outstripped Ginn in other ways.

Ginn’s vaunted 4.28 40 time is the centerpiece of his case as a first-rounder. While he didn’t actually run the 40 at the combine, he was faster than Moss’s 4.31. In fact, Ginn’s numbers are eerily similar to that of another recent wideout. They ran the same exact 40 time and are the same height; our mystery receiver is three pounds heavier, has a vertical jump one inch higher, and outjumped Ginn by a foot on the broad jump. That receiver? Houston’s Jerome Mathis, who the Texans selected in the fourth round in 2005. Mathis was a Pro Bowl kick returner his rookie year but is unlikely to pay many dividends in the passing game. With Ginn’s struggles to break through press coverage and run the limited routes he was expected to in college, it looks like Miami used the ninth overall pick on a return specialist.

Basically I think WRs selected mainly because of their speed are always a HUGE risk. We've seen that first hand here with guys like Bethel and others.

The review of the Jets pick is an interesting read as well. While I think the Jets needed more quantity in this draft I continue to be impressed with the picks they did make - Revis, Harris - and although they don't mention it, trading their 2nd round pick for Thomas - a real coup - makes for a solid 1, 2, 3 pick in 2007. I still think they overachieved last year and will have a tough time making the playoffs again this year but all three of those players will contribute in big ways IMO.

 

[zippo59]

The thing with Ginn is that he didn't put up the kind of numbers you expect out of a wide receiver chosen in the top ten. His numbers pale in comparison to other top wideouts like Calvin Johnson, Sydney Rice, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Jarrett, and Craig Davis.

And Ginn played with the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and had a good running game so he was in an offense where he had every reason to put up big numbers if he was truly an elite wide receiver. His YPC isn't even that good. It's ok but you would expect a higher one out of a "gamebreaking" speedy wide receiver.

He did catch nine touchdowns, which is a good number, but I just don't know if his production as a receiver warranted the ninth overall selection.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Fin Ginn Pick, Fin Ginn Pick, Fin Ginn Pick - I can see this finely rhythmic non sequitur coming to a Zippy the Pinhead comic strip near you!

 

[Patriotic]

Fin Ginn Pick, Fin Ginn Pick, Fin Ginn Pick - I can see this finely rhythmic non sequitur coming to a Zippy the Pinhead comic strip near you!

Fins no Win with Ginn. Him no Quinn. Dim Fins no Swim and its a Sin.

 

[spacecrime]

So far the only two people who like the pick are Cam Cameron and AquaVelvaBoy4Ever.

Hmm.

Has anyone seen both of them at the same time in the same place? Do you think ...?

 

[tombonneau]

I remember in the weeks before the draft some mock I saw had us taking Ginn @24 and thought that was about the only pick that would really make me violently angry.

And that was at #24!

Can't imagine what I'd do if I were a Fin fan.

Actually, I know exactly what I'd do -- I'd go to the beach, scope out some talent and try to forget the whole thing.

 

[Born_a_Patriot]

So far the only two people who like the pick are Cam Cameron and AquaVelvaBoy4Ever.

Hmm.

Has anyone seen both of them at the same time in the same place? Do you think ...?

They are not the same person, but you were almost right. Siamese twins.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The thing with Ginn is that he didn't put up the kind of numbers you expect out of a wide receiver chosen in the top ten. His numbers pale in comparison to other top wideouts like Calvin Johnson, Sydney Rice, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Jarrett, and Craig Davis.

And Ginn played with the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and had a good running game so he was in an offense where he had every reason to put up big numbers if he was truly an elite wide receiver. His YPC isn't even that good. It's ok but you would expect a higher one out of a "gamebreaking" speedy wide receiver.

He did catch nine touchdowns, which is a good number, but I just don't know if his production as a receiver warranted the ninth overall selection.

Bringing up who Ginn played with raises an interesting point about Brady Quinn... who did he play with? Effectively no one.

His RB went undrafted as did all his receivers - and only one of his O Linemen got drafted in the 7th round ... And yet the guy STILL put up good enough numbers and showed enough talent to be considered as a #1 pick for a time, as well as a Heisman candidate.

So what can he do with an NFL caliber RB, receivers, and an OL? Time will tell but I know nearly every Dolphin fan is hoping he falls on his face.

 

[BelichickFan]

I remember in the weeks before the draft some mock I saw had us taking Ginn @24 and thought that was about the only pick that would really make me violently angry.

And that was at #24!

I agree with that, although his speed intrigued me a little he was WAY too much Bethel Johnson for my liking - especially after I saw how similar Ginn and Bethel's college numbers were.

 

[BelichickFan]

Bringing up who Ginn played with raises an interesting point about Brady Quinn... who did he play with? Effectively no one.

His RB went undrafted as did all his receivers.

Samardzija would have gone in the first two rounds had he stayed with football. Notre Dame also played a fairly benign schedule, I'm not sure how Quinn would have looked had Notre Dame been in the SEC in lieu of being a pseudo member of the crappy Big Eleven.

 

[Kontradiction]

So far the only two people who like the pick are Cam Cameron and AquaVelvaBoy4Ever.

Hmm.

Has anyone seen both of them at the same time in the same place? Do you think ...?

I don't really care for the Ginn pick. But I'll go on record right now of saying that I love the John Beck pick.

 

[BelichickFan]

I don't really care for the Ginn pick. But I'll go on record right now of saying that I love the John Beck pick.

That's what hurt Quinn was there was a group of about four second round QB. Like with Cleveland trading up, were they better with Quinn or one of Beck, Edwards, Kolb, etc and keeping their (likely high) #1 next year.

 

[njpatsfan]

Fins no Win with Ginn. Him no Quinn. Dim Fins no Swim and its a Sin.

That is fricken hilarious.

R

 

[primetime]

The Big Ten is a weak conference as a whole, so players tend to be overrated coming out of there. For linemen and defensive players, this isn't always the case, but I'd say there's a larger proportion of hyped Big Ten players who bust than any other conference.

 

[Welker83]

Honestly i love the Ginn Pick and most of the derision pointed at him is unwarranted.

As for his college production there is a simple reason why those other guys had better numbers than him...all of them didn't have another 1st round pick WR on the same team with him...for 2 season's in a row. (santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez)

As for press coverage. PLEASE USE IT AGAINST HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you jam him 10 times at LEAST once he wil break it, and that's all it will take for 6 points and the kicking team. The guy ran a 4.28 at 75%... Talk is most scouts felt he could have rivaled Deon sanders old record. when scouts were scouting santonio for the 2006 draft they were amazed that Ginn was literally FLYING past the guy.

The lack of routes is a very valid point. At ohio Ginn prolly only ran 6 different routes. And most of them we types of Go's, and post patterns. As for the mathis comparison...lets just say the "texans" and "offensive mastery" have never been put in the same sentence by a person who was not on LSD.

Honestly i'm expecting ginn to come in in spot roles on offense for specially designed plays, and that next year he might push for the starting Z spot. Since 2000 rookie 1st round WR's have average 35 catches, 485 yards and 3 Td's there rookie years. so it is unfair to expect a lot from a position that routinely takes 2-3 years to adjust to the NFL.

However i do expect him to make an immediate impact as a return man. His numbers in that area are Very comparable to the like of Reggie bush and Devin hester...which is a tad scary.

 

[Referee]

Not sure if this has been posted or not but I figured anything that mocks the Dolphins might help cheer up a mourning Patriots' Nation.

In reviewing the Dolphins pick of Ted Ginn they extrapolate on why they think they think the Fins used the #9 pick on a return specialist.

I generally agree with their assessment - I don't expect Ginn to do much more than return kicks this year, if indeed he's even healthy - but its too early to declare him a bust obvioulsy. They do say good things about Beck - which I tend to agree with as well - I think he's got good potential... though depending on how Brady Quinn shakes out the Dolphins have a good chance to have blown their first and 2nd round picks in this draft.

Here's an excerpt: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/05/16/ramblings/four-downs/5142/



Basically I think WRs selected mainly because of their speed are always a HUGE risk. We've seen that first hand here with guys like Bethel and others.

The review of the Jets pick is an interesting read as well. While I think the Jets needed more quantity in this draft I continue to be impressed with the picks they did make - Revis, Harris - and although they don't mention it, trading their 2nd round pick for Thomas - a real coup - makes for a solid 1, 2, 3 pick in 2007. I still think they overachieved last year and will have a tough time making the playoffs again this year but all three of those players will contribute in big ways IMO.

In Miami, we have a part of the world which is called "South Beach" or otherwise known as "Sodom and Gommorah." What happens here doesn't always necessarily stay here...

Brady Quinn and his entourage may have found some of the ladies here and the acoutrements a little tempting... South Beach can define what you don't want to see from a first rounder...

John Beck is a mature guy, high learning curve, just had a newborn and the brass here seem to believe that Cam Cameron can mould him in 2-3 years as the other fine quarterbacks in San Diego developed...

I wanted to see Brady Quinn in Miami and beleive that Charlie Weiss groomed him as well as any other QB... Why did the other NFL teams pass on Quinn I wonder...?

 

[VJCPatriot]

LOL. You saying Ginn would run a 4.0 40 if healthy?
Miami Dolphins just spent a top 10 pick on a punt returner that doesn't run very good routes and has never produced much in college.
I'm glad you love this pick, unlike the hundreds of Fin fans booing the GM on draft day, you obviously must know better.

Honestly i love the Ginn Pick and most of the derision pointed at him is unwarranted.

As for his college production there is a simple reason why those other guys had better numbers than him...all of them didn't have another 1st round pick WR on the same team with him...for 2 season's in a row. (santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez)

As for press coverage. PLEASE USE IT AGAINST HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you jam him 10 times at LEAST once he wil break it, and that's all it will take for 6 points and the kicking team. The guy ran a 4.28 at 75%... Talk is most scouts felt he could have rivaled Deon sanders old record. when scouts were scouting santonio for the 2006 draft they were amazed that Ginn was literally FLYING past the guy.

The lack of routes is a very valid point. At ohio Ginn prolly only ran 6 different routes. And most of them we types of Go's, and post patterns. As for the mathis comparison...lets just say the "texans" and "offensive mastery" have never been put in the same sentence by a person who was not on LSD.

Honestly i'm expecting ginn to come in in spot roles on offense for specially designed plays, and that next year he might push for the starting Z spot. Since 2000 rookie 1st round WR's have average 35 catches, 485 yards and 3 Td's there rookie years. so it is unfair to expect a lot from a position that routinely takes 2-3 years to adjust to the NFL.

However i do expect him to make an immediate impact as a return man. His numbers in that area are Very comparable to the like of Reggie bush and Devin hester...which is a tad scary.

 

[DaBruinz]

Honestly i love the Ginn Pick and most of the derision pointed at him is unwarranted.

As for his college production there is a simple reason why those other guys had better numbers than him...all of them didn't have another 1st round pick WR on the same team with him...for 2 season's in a row. (santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez)

How does having Holmes or Gonzalez opposite him translate into him having a slightly above average YPC? His career YPC average was 14.4. With his best being as a sophomore at just under 15.75 YPC.

How do you explain that his kick return numbers were DOWN this year. Down from nearly 30 yards per return to 24.4?

As for press coverage. PLEASE USE IT AGAINST HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you jam him 10 times at LEAST once he wil break it, and that's all it will take for 6 points and the kicking team. The guy ran a 4.28 at 75%... Talk is most scouts felt he could have rivaled Deon sanders old record. when scouts were scouting santonio for the 2006 draft they were amazed that Ginn was literally FLYING past the guy.

Ginn did NOT run a 4.28 while at 75%. His Pro-Day time was a 4.38 and that was at 75%, supposedly. The 4.28 was done in CAMPUS drills prior to the start of the 2006 season.

Also, Ginn is light for his size. At 177 lbs, a 195 lb. CB will be able to chuck him at the line and basically take him out of the play, or slow him down enough that he won't be a viable option for the pass.

The lack of routes is a very valid point. At ohio Ginn prolly only ran 6 different routes. And most of them we types of Go's, and post patterns. As for the mathis comparison...lets just say the "texans" and "offensive mastery" have never been put in the same sentence by a person who was not on LSD.

Honestly i'm expecting ginn to come in in spot roles on offense for specially designed plays, and that next year he might push for the starting Z spot. Since 2000 rookie 1st round WR's have average 35 catches, 485 yards and 3 Td's there rookie years. so it is unfair to expect a lot from a position that routinely takes 2-3 years to adjust to the NFL.

However i do expect him to make an immediate impact as a return man. His numbers in that area are Very comparable to the like of Reggie bush and Devin hester...which is a tad scary.

My picks or 1st round busts prior to the draft were Marshawn Lynch and Tedd Ginn. That hasn't changed. I don't think that Ginn will be nearly the returner that people expect unless the entire Miami special teams corps has an epiphany because they were downright horrible with their blocking last year. I wouldn't be surprised if Ginn, because of his slight build, ended up underperforming because he wasn't on the field.

 

[DaBruinz]

I wanted to see Brady Quinn in Miami and beleive that Charlie Weiss groomed him as well as any other QB... Why did the other NFL teams pass on Quinn I wonder...?

Why did which other teams pass on Quinn? The only ones who really NEEDED a QB were Oakland, Cleveland, and Miami. Cleveland also needed O-line, particularly a LT and Thomas is much more likely to be able to step in right away. Oakland took Jamarcus Russell. So that left Miami. Oh, and Cleveland did end up moving back up to take Quinn when they saw him still available right before the Chiefs pick.

 

[patchick]

W93, Ginn could very well be a good player -- certainly a weapon on returns. But that doesn't, IMO, make him a good pick. Not in the top 10, not with an injury, not with a college game that's hard to project to the pros.

Which brings up...

As for his college production there is a simple reason why those other guys had better numbers than him...all of them didn't have another 1st round pick WR on the same team with him...for 2 season's in a row. (santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez)

Hold on a second. All the time you hear about players being hampered by a lack of talent around them. But Ginn wasn't able to reach his full potential because he had a Heisman winner throwing to him and a 1st-round pick running opposite? Poor guy.