Pioli on the #28 trade...

[Seneschal2]

Via Reiss, from the WEEI interview:

How much action did you have for a trade with that 28th overall pick?

“There was quite a bit. We had a number of calls. I want to say we had at least four or five clubs willing to move up to that spot that had made solid offers to us. That’s why it’s good, especially in the first round when you have 15 minutes to make a decision on a pick, you’re getting a lot of information in -- not only during that 15 minutes but prior to the 15 minutes you’re on the clock. We have a pretty organized process that we go through when we receive trade calls. We put them up on the board, we talk to them. We felt the offer from San Francisco was probably the best value at that time.”

---

It's always refreshing to get an insider's view on the draft process. When most on this board thought there was a chance of the Pats moving out of that slot because of it's potential value, along comes Pioli to confirm that yes, 4 or 5 teams made solid offers. We'll need to keep this likely scenario in mind next time we have two first round picks. When might that be I wonder?

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm going to infer from this that Belioli agree with me that SF's #1 could be quite high next year. A future #1 and a #4 (regardless of what we traded it for), isn't a GREAT deal. If we had multiple offers, it probably wasn't a "dump at any cost" move. Logically that results in my concluding that they also think this could be a fairly high #1 - I still say it's going to be top ten.

 

[cstjohn17]

Via Reiss, from the WEEI interview:

---

It's always refreshing to get an insider's view on the draft process. When most on this board thought there was a chance of the Pats moving out of that slot because of it's potential value, along comes Pioli to confirm that yes, 4 or 5 teams made solid offers. We'll need to keep this likely scenario in mind next time we have two first round picks. When might that be I wonder?

It is curious with 4 or 5 offers how they only got a future 1st and a 4th rounder. On the surface it doesn't seem like a lot, but listening to BB on WEEI it made more sense.

He put an economic spin on it, stating that the 28th pick is among the lowest in the draft (bottom 10%). He went on to say that based on averages it should be around 15 or a 10-15 jump. Finishing by saying that there is always a chance that it becomes a very high pick, worst case it is 28 or higher and they break even.

Something that he didn't say that I will add to the conversation on his behalf, he fully expects SF to finish . 500 or worse. This would be in the 13-17 range or better.

 

[pats63]

Yeah Dude,I am going for the SeaHawks fan this year...How about those Cards and Rams....I think BB&SP know a thing or two about this...I for one is not going to second judge them....

 

[BelichickFan]

Yeah Dude,I am going for the SeaHawks fan this year...How about those Cards and Rams....I think BB&SP know a thing or two about this...I for one is not going to second judge them....

It just cracks me up that we're all going from Seahawk haters to Seahawk fans

I am very confident the Seahawks and Rams will finish ahead of SF . . . maybe Arizona too depending how they respond to the new HC.

 

[cstjohn17]

It just cracks me up that we're all going from Seahawk haters to Seahawk fans

I am very confident the Seahawks and Rams will finish ahead of SF . . . maybe Arizona too depending how they respond to the new HC.

Seattle's kicker cost us big time last year. I think he had 3 or 4 last second game winners...

Go anyone but SF!

 

[The 12th Man]

It just cracks me up that we're all going from Seahawk haters to Seahawk fans

I am very confident the Seahawks and Rams will finish ahead of SF . . . maybe Arizona too depending how they respond to the new HC.

Very confident? I don't know. As much as I would like the 49ers to have a bad record, I just can't see that realistically. They were on the verge of making the playoffs last year and only got better, aquiring lots of good talent (granted they overpaid a lot of them too, but that's not the point). I wouldn't be surprised if they win the division this year, although it looks like it will be a close division race.

 

[BelichickFan]

Very confident? I don't know. As much as I would like the 49ers to have a bad record, I just can't see that realistically. They were on the verge of making the playoffs last year

They sucked last year, 5th worst point differential in the league. They were lucky to be 7-9.

 

[The 12th Man]

They sucked last year, 5th worst point differential in the league. They were lucky to be 7-9.

Don't look too much into the stats. They played terrible at first, but then got hot. Being from the west coast, all I kept hearing from these Seahawks fans is how tough the 49ers play them every time. I mean, cmon, I want to be optimistic too, I'm on your side here, I'm just saying they got a lot better this year talent-wise and will push the division. I don't like when people say the word "sucked" or "lucky" when referring to football games.

 

[dryheat44]

Don't look too much into the stats. They played terrible at first, but then got hot. Being from the west coast, all I kept hearing from these Seahawks fans is how tough the 49ers play them every time. I mean, cmon, I want to be optimistic too, I'm on your side here, I'm just saying they got a lot better this year talent-wise and will push the division. I don't like when people say the word "sucked" or "lucky" when referring to football games.

I agree. I can see anybody winning that division. Of course, the draft order will be by record, and nobody's winning 10 games over there.

Honestly, I think Seattle might have the worst record this year.

 

[everlong]

If Seattle had just missed on of those FGs we would have ended up getting Cleveland's 2008 first and 2007 second like Dallas did and then we could have traded the 2nd or drafted David Harris at a better value.

SF added a lot of talent but it's hard in the NFL to take a major step forward two years in a row. They are probably a 8-8 team putting our pick in the mid-teens.

One big point however is Frank Gore was a monster for them last year. If not for his being ravaged by injuries he was more talented than Mcgahee, Portis or any of the other backs from the U. If you take Gore away this team is just not the same. Between his shoulders and knees alone they are one snap away from losing their best offensive weapon of last year. The reason the Hawks fans say the 49ers were so physical is a direct reflection of Gore who punished their smallish defense.

 

[dryheat44]

If you take Gore away this team is just not the same. Between his shoulders and knees alone they are one snap away from losing their best offensive weapon of last year.

I guess that's true enough, but that makes them no different than New England, Indy, San Diego, etc.

It's much easier to lose a starting RB than a starting QB.

 

[BelichickFan]

Don't look too much into the stats. They played terrible at first, but then got hot. Being from the west coast, all I kept hearing from these Seahawks fans is how tough the 49ers play them every time. I mean, cmon, I want to be optimistic too, I'm on your side here, I'm just saying they got a lot better this year talent-wise and will push the division. I don't like when people say the word "sucked" or "lucky" when referring to football games.

Well we'll see. I disagree with you.

Looking at their last eight, that was an impressive win at Denver to end the season. The other wins were against :

6-10 Minnesota
3-13 Detriot
Seattle without Hasselbeck
Seattle with everyone - solid win there although Seattle was struggling then, having lost to Arizona the week before.

Alex Smith was better in the first half of the year, 79.7 rating vs. 69.5. 9/7 TD/INT vs. 7/9.

Football Outsiders ranked them 29th in the league and also 29th over the final eight games.

Frank Gore was a beast, no doubt. But after a 312 carry / 61 reception season, will he be as strong this year ? Not sure.

They added Clements in the offseason - but lost Norv Turner. Solid draft but you know rookies.

I'd put my money on Seattle being better assuming Hasselbeck and Alexander stay healthy this year. Patrick Kearney was a big addition for them too.

Rams ? They've had a good offseason adding McMichael to add to their passing game and their top two, Carriker and Leonard, are just as impressive as the 49ers'.

Cardinals ? With Leiart no longer being a rookie they could be very interesting. Football Outsiders ranked them 20th over the second half of the season. And speaking of young QB, while Smith's rating went down from 80 to 70 from the first half to the second, Leinart's went up from 67 to 79.

This is why they play the games, we'll see. But until proven otherwise, SF is, TO ME, a flash in the pan as opposed to an up and coming team for this year.

 

[everlong]

I guess that's true enough, but that makes them no different than New England, Indy, San Diego, etc.

It's much easier to lose a starting RB than a starting QB.

True enough.

However I think Indy or NE can recover better than SD or SF from losing their top RB because of their QB and SF due to experience is in the toughest spot should they lose their top RB.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The satellite radio guys had an interesting discussion on the 2nd round and the percieved lack of value.

They said New England had a 2 chances to pick up a pair of second round picks for their #28 pick and turned down both teams. Also another team offered a #2 this year and a #2 next year for the #28 pick. We turned that down as well.

My guess is the that the #2 this year and next year might have been Dallas.

 

[BelichickFan]

The satellite radio guys had an interesting discussion on the 2nd round and the percieved lack of value.

They said New England had a 2 chances to pick up a pair of second round picks for their #28 pick and turned down both teams. Also another team offered a #2 this year and a #2 next year for the #28 pick. We turned that down as well.

My guess is the that the #2 this year and next year might have been Dallas.

Why they took the deal they did is very interesting as the #4 wasn't worth a lot until it was traded.

In the end I think it was just too tempting to get into the top half of next year's first round - how often does that happen for a playoff team - with the upside of top ten. It may not work out but the upside was too great.

 

[dryheat44]

The satellite radio guys had an interesting discussion on the 2nd round and the percieved lack of value.

They said New England had a 2 chances to pick up a pair of second round picks for their #28 pick and turned down both teams. Also another team offered a #2 this year and a #2 next year for the #28 pick. We turned that down as well.

My guess is the that the #2 this year and next year might have been Dallas.

If true, I guess they didn't think as highly of David Harris as we assumed they did.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If true, I guess they didn't think as highly of David Harris as we assumed they did.

It's pretty clear the Pats didn't like the value of players from #28 till the 4th round. Otherwise they would have taken the two second rounders. I also think that San Francisco's #1 having the possibility of being top 15 was a big factor in their decisionmaking process.

This draft was not a deep draft. Rather it had some cream at the top and a middle class (2nd to 4th round) that did not promise to be outstanding in the Patriots' eyes. The receivers did go as deep as round 2, but the Pats already addressed that issue in the offseason. And Randy Moss with a #4 well... he's better than any round 2 receiver and probably better than most of the round 1 receivers in this year's draft as well.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm going to infer from this that Belioli agree with me that SF's #1 could be quite high next year. A future #1 and a #4 (regardless of what we traded it for), isn't a GREAT deal. If we had multiple offers, it probably wasn't a "dump at any cost" move. Logically that results in my concluding that they also think this could be a fairly high #1 - I still say it's going to be top ten.

Now that's a slap your forehead read! DOH! I should have figured their draftroom probably has a forecast based on each team's 2007 schedule ready, just to help when sorting trade offers.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Now that's a slap your forehead read! DOH! I should have figured their draftroom probably has a forecast based on each team's 2007 schedule ready, just to help when sorting trade offers.

The SF Draft Room:

You want this guy? What do you think we should offer New England?

How about this year's fourth and next year's first?

Sounds good to me.

The Patriots Draft Room:

BB: OK, Scott, let's be quick here; we've got offers from Dallas and San Francisco. Dallas is offering their seconds this year and next year, the Niners are offering this year's fourth and next year's first. What've you got?

SP: (reaches for a big binder of information) Well, out of our simulations, the average pick for Dallas is 19.65. (flipping pages . . .) But about 90% of our simulations have the SF pick in the top half of round 1, with an average pick of 9.89.

BB: Good. I don't think we want a top-3 pick, but I'll take a 10.

SP: Only a 0.3% chance of them going top five, Bill.

BB: Good. Call the Niners and tell them we have a deal.

SP: Will do. Oh, BTW, Bill, right now our other simulations show a greater than 70% chance that we'll be able to convince the Raiders to part with a 4th for Moss, and to get Moss to reduce his salary.

BB: Excellent. . . . Josh--call Gillette and let them know we need an extra strength batch of Kool-Aid ready tonight!