A recent trend and the 2008 AFC East

[TomBrady'sGoat]

So I came up with this while browsing Jets Insider. I posted my thoughts, but not a single person responded. They instead only responded to their resident Pats troll, calling him names and blaming him for dragging down their site. The irony was not lost on me.

Well, since those Jets fans were useless I turn to my PatsFans brethren:

Why were the 2006 Jets necessarily a prelude to a juggernaut? How are they different from other recent AFC East teams that had a great year?

I'm looking at NFL.com's standings here: http://www.nfl.com/standings They have easily browsed standings back to 2001. We'll jump to 2003, because the trend start there.

In '03 NE dominates at 14-2, Miami is strong at 10-6 and the other two have poor 6-10 seasons.

In '04 Miami plummets to 4-12. That's a big drop-off by the second place team. Of note is the Jets improving to 10-6 and the playoffs.

in '05 The Jets (let's use the word again since it fits) plummet to 4-12. Miami jumps back up to 9-7.

Then last year, we all know happens. Miami falls to 6-10 while the Jets jump ahead to 10-6.

So the last 3 years the second place team from the previous year fell down to last place. In each of those years the last place team jumped to second (the Jets making the playoffs twice). NE has held the top spot, while the Bills have languished in 3rd watching it happen.

So what makes the '07 Jets necessarily different? The schedule is tougher and teams are gunning for you as a playoff team. Yes the Jets have a great young coach, but didn't the '06 Dolphins have one of those (you can't just discount Saban, because 1 year ago today he was viewed as a great newcomer coach and for all we know Mangini can fall apart too)?

Please let me know if there is something I'm missing here. A trend like this is far from a rule, and in no way guarantees a regression by the Jets. I guess my point is that it provides ample evidence that just because the Jets took 2nd place last year doesn't necessarily mean they're destined for #1.

In a previous thread I predicted the Jets to fall to 7-9 while Miami rises to 9-7. After looking up these stats I found some basis for my earlier prediction.

What does everyone think? Are the Jets any different, or will they suffer the same fall? Will Miami jump back up to playoff contention? Is NE pretty much guaranteed the division title? Would 3rd place be a successful season for buffalo (I say yes)?

 

[TheSeymonsta]

I do think the Jesters fall back this year. I just dont see any teams coming up to replace them.

Buffalo lost too much.
Miami still doesent have a QB.
The Jesters schedule and I am sure Penny will get a bruise again so that alone will kill them.

 

[mgcolby]

So I came up with this while browsing Jets Insider. I posted my thoughts, but not a single person responded. They instead only responded to their resident Pats troll, calling him names and blaming him for dragging down their site. The irony was not lost on me.

Well, since those Jets fans were useless I turn to my PatsFans brethren:



In a previous thread I predicted the Jets to fall to 7-9 while Miami rises to 9-7. After looking up these stats I found some basis for my earlier prediction.

What does everyone think? Are the Jets any different, or will they suffer the same fall? Will Miami jump back up to playoff contention? Is NE pretty much guaranteed the division title? Would 3rd place be a successful season for buffalo (I say yes)?

To me the Jets are tied to Pennington and his health (which applies to most teams and their starting QB). Think about it with a healthy Pennington they usually win 9 or 10 games without a healthy Pennington they win about 25% of their games.

So IMO if Chad stays healthy they win 9 or 10 games this season if isn't then I guess we'll find out if Clemens is ready.

 

[Pujo]

I like our three-team division.

Though I'm seeing a very, very bad season for Miami.

 

[oldrover]

Simple explanation for what happened:

You finish last, and next year you play the last place teams.

You finish second, and next year you play the second-place teams.

That would make teams who are not truly improving, but merely treading water, bounce up and down in the standings.

 

[Mooch]

Biggest problem for the Jets last year was stopping the run. They ranked #24 in the league in rushing yrds allowed and a dismal 27th overall in yards allowed per carry.

As far as I can tell, they haven't done anything to improve in that area and it will kill them in 2007.

They also had one of the luckiest seasons in recent NFL history with regard to injuries to starting players. They were unbelievably healthy all last season. That's unlikely to happen two years in a row.

 

[zippo59]

To me the Jets are tied to Pennington and his health (which applies to most teams and their starting QB). Think about it with a healthy Pennington they usually win 9 or 10 games without a healthy Pennington they win about 25% of their games.

So IMO if Chad stays healthy they win 9 or 10 games this season if isn't then I guess we'll find out if Clemens is ready.

I agree that it comes down to Pennington. Every year that he has played the majority of the games they have come in either second or first in the division. Every year that he hasn't they have come in last. So really the question for the Jets next year is can Pennington stay healthy? If I were a Jet fan I would not be very confident that he can.

 

[zippo59]

Biggest problem for the Jets last year was stopping the run. They ranked #24 in the league in rushing yrds allowed and a dismal 27th overall in yards allowed per carry.

As far as I can tell, they haven't done anything to improve in that area and it will kill them in 2007.

They also had one of the luckiest seasons in recent NFL history with regard to injuries to starting players. They were unbelievably healthy all last season. That's unlikely to happen two years in a row.

They did draft David Harris who seems to be a pretty good run stopper.

 

[Mooch]

They did draft David Harris who seems to be a pretty good run stopper.

Linebacker play against the run wasn't really the issue. It was weakness at the point of attack, particularly defensive tackle.

 

[zippo59]

Linebacker play against the run wasn't really the issue. It was weakness at the point of attack, particularly defensive tackle.

Part of the problem is that they were trying to stuff DeWayne Robertson into the NT position, which he had never played before. I think they need that true stud NT for their defense to become legitimate.

 

[Mooch]

I agree. They don't have anybody big enough to play traditional two-gap NT. Those guys aren't readily available out there.

The other issue is that their defense seems to be poorly structured for the 3-4 in general. I like Vilma as a player but he's not big enough to be a run plugger in the 3-4. Harris's problem seems to be the opposite: Looks like he has the size to play ILB in this scheme but he's not nearly quick enough to cover the middle of the field in passing situations.

All in all, the Jets defense got by on good fortune last year. One or two injuries to their front 7 and they might be a very bad defense this coming year.

 

[Welker83]

I like our three-team division.

Though I'm seeing a very, very bad season for Miami.

Oops...must be a typo..cause you obviously mean buffalo...you know the team that lost it's RB, 2 LB's, and #1 CB, while adding only 2 linemen castoffs and a running back in the draft that would have been a late first round pick a year ago...

 

[zippo59]

Oops...must be a typo..cause you obviously mean buffalo...you know the team that lost it's RB, 2 LB's, and #1 CB, while adding only 2 linemen castoffs and a running back in the draft that would have been a late first round pick a year ago...

They also added Posluszny and Wendling.

 

[TheSeymonsta]

and they might be a very bad defense this coming year.

Wait until they have to line up against

Moss
Stallworth
Welker
Washington
Watson

Maroney in the Backfield.....

 

[Pujo]

Oops...must be a typo..cause you obviously mean buffalo...you know the team that lost it's RB, 2 LB's, and #1 CB, while adding only 2 linemen castoffs and a running back in the draft that would have been a late first round pick a year ago...

I already covered Buffalo with the "three team division" comment. Nevermind winning it, Buffalo doesn't even make the AFC East this year.

 

[Pujo]

Wait until they have to line up against

Moss
Stallworth
Welker
Washington
Watson

Maroney in the Backfield.....

Umm, all that lineup would be good for is a penalty for too many receivers on the field...

 

[zippo59]

Umm, all that lineup would be good for is a penalty for too many receivers on the field...

Not if we have Maroney playing QB.

 

[BTTA]

Umm, all that lineup would be good for is a penalty for too many receivers on the field...

There's a penalty for too many recievers on the field?

The real problem would be that one of those guys would have to play OL.

 

[Pujo]

There's a penalty for too many recievers on the field?

The real problem would be that one of those guys would have to play OL.

Yeah, I knew I was oversimplifying it, but I couldn't get what I said to flow well otherwise.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The "surprise" element that the Jets enjoyed last year is gone. Teams will be ready for them this year, but tI think the Jets will be prepared for that. Mangini saw what happened in 2002 the year after New England won their first SB and I think he's going to do a marvelous job of avoiding that trap.

However as someone said earlier, Pennington's health is key for the Jets.

Look for a big year from Brad Smith.