What to do with the 1st Pick overall

[BelichickFan]

Brady may go down as the best of all time so that's a ridiculous comparison.

I'm just saying, talent being equal you take the QB.

Russell vs. Thomas you take Russell. That was the question that was posed. Russell vs. Johnson is tougher because most think Johnson is a better talent but at a position of lesser importance.

 

[14thDragon]

Daunte Culpepper is more likely. And where is he now? Historically QBs taken 1st or 2nd overall have only about a 50/50 shot of becoming a solid NFL starter.

I'd take Calvin Johnson.

Well, if you fail to take Russell, likely he is going to be the new QB in Oakland. Right now they have no-one to deliver the mail. (actually, even if they do get Russell he might be the new QB in oakland, everything I have heard suggests Russel needs at least half a year to sit)

A great quarter-back can make JAG recievers look good, but the greatest reciever can not make an JAG quarterback look good. The QB has the ball in his hands 99% of all offensive plays and is the center of gravity for any offense. The value of the QB for the offense is greater then any other position on the O including the lineman, so when it comes time to rebuild, then you have to start with the QB.

1st round QBs maybe 50/50 but the odds go down considerably after that.

 

[bakes781]

1st round QBs maybe 50/50 but the odds go down considerably after that.

yeah but the odds of a 1st round WR bust are less IMO. Especially one that's being compared to the physical attributes of a Randy Moss/Terrel Owens with the personality of a Jerry Rice in a year where the WR class is very deep.

 

[Oswlek]

Here is a historical view of all offensive tackles taken since 1982. I see nothing there that indicates to me that OT is nearly as "safe" a pick as propaganda suggests. I think it is just a combination of factors:

1) QBs are visibly involved in every offensive play. I realize that OTs are just as involved, but it isn't so obvious how well they preform unless they are great or terrible.

2) Only one QB can play at a time. A medicore QB picked high looks like a failure. A mediocre LT can still be covered up with TE play or by switching over to RT.

It just comes down to the simple fact that QBs are easier to analyze than OTs.

 

[14thDragon]

yeah but the odds of a 1st round WR bust are less IMO. Especially one that's being compared to the physical attributes of a Randy Moss/Terrel Owens with the personality of a Jerry Rice in a year where the WR class is very deep.

Even if Johnson lives up to all of his potential, he would still be less value able to a team then a franchise quarterback. Thats why you see plenty of teams trade away star wide recievers. You do not trade away your franchise quarterback. The position is just too valuable. Being right on a quarterback is just a lot more important then being right on a reciever.

 

[bakes781]

Even if Johnson lives up to all of his potential, he would still be less value able to a team then a franchise quarterback. Thats why you see plenty of teams trade away star wide recievers. You do not trade away your franchise quarterback. The position is just too valuable. Being right on a quarterback is just a lot more important then being right on a reciever.

Yeah but being wrong on a QB is a LOT worse. You set your franchise back about 5 years when you pick the next Ryan Leaf or Rick Mirer.

 

[BelichickFan]

Yeah but being wrong on a QB is a LOT worse. You set your franchise back about 5 years when you pick the next Ryan Leaf or Rick Mirer.

You can't be scared to make a mistake.

There's only two reasons to pass on a stud QB :

- If you think he's just not that good.
- If you don't think your coaching staff can translate his talent into plays.

If you think he's that good then you have to trust your scouting ability. If you think your coaching staff is worth it's paycheck you have to trust them to turn ability into plays.

There's no other reason to pass on a QB. Being afraid to make a mistake CERTAINLY isn't a good reason.

 

[bakes781]

You can't be scared to make a mistake.

There's only two reasons to pass on a stud QB :

- If you think he's just not that good.
- If you don't think your coaching staff can translate his talent into plays.

If you think he's that good then you have to trust your scouting ability. If you think your coaching staff is worth it's paycheck you have to trust them to turn ability into plays.

There's no other reason to pass on a QB. Being afraid to make a mistake CERTAINLY isn't a good reason.

Well if the rumors are true I'd say Oakland is very scared. They've been inquiring about QBs like Tim Rattay & Josh McCown just so they can have an adequate excuse not to select Russell #1 overall.

 

[TMoney]

Oakland do need a QB, but is Russell the QB for them, probably not. in all honsety they should have taken leinart last year. They should draft Quinn this year if they are going to take a QB.

Calvin johnson is a good player, but the raiders are a few years away from being able draft a WR in the first round of the draft. A team like the pats could take the top rated player with the first pick in the draft, but the raiders need plug holes, they gotto find there guy and trade down for him.

I have to admit I have only recently started to watch american football, but I cannot believe all the hype that goes aling with it. You have a few good games and all of a sudden you GOD!! I look at the draft and all I see is hype, so many players are over rated and so many under rated. One of the reasons I love the pats so much is that they are so smart. They never buy into the Hype (I loved how the chargers bought into the hype and we smoked them). The pats will make the smart choice with there picks, they get good character guys,they type who have helped forged the pats into what they are today and the type who will keep they credo alive.

Sorry I went off on a tangent. what would I do with the Number on over all pick.......(this is the point I wanted to get across) trade down, there is always some fool who will take the over rated guy, you can take more picks and equally good guys when you trade down. I suppose Belichick fan does have a point if you think you got your guy take him, but you gotto be as sure as hell that he is your guy. Personally I don't think Russell is that guy, only time will tell if I am right or wrong. He doens't seem to have that fire in him, i don't get the impression that he is the kinda guy who wants to win it all over and over again. I watched an interview with Jarvis Moss, he seems like a guy who is going to do well, I think her has the hunger (I am not saying anything about where he should go in the draft(don't wanna open another kettle of ishh)).

Anyways the draft is only a few days away and I can't wait for 12hrs of sports talk!!

 

[Patriot Missile]

Yeah but, more to the point, would you trade Culpepper for him? Or Carr? I would. Ridiculous to suggest that Russell or Quinn are sure to be the next Brady or Manning. They each represent one shot in the dark for the team that drafts them. Gold mine if they hit.

Anyway, Brady way a 6th rounder. So the idea that you cant afford to pass up a first round QB when you're presented with one... well... that doesn't really hold water. What round was Favre taken?

It's a crapshoot. You're betting on horses running different races on different tracks.

Completely agreed. The whole draft is mining for gold but if you look at the QB's drafted the last twenty years in the first round you will find some very discouraging results if you are looking for a Super Star QB Manning type player. The safer picks are Calvin Johnson,Gaines Adams, Joe Thomas. That's my opinion mixed in with some radio I've listened to.

 

[BelichickFan]

Completely agreed. The whole draft is mining for gold but if you look at the QB's drafted the last twenty years in the first round you will find some very discouraging results if you are looking for a Super Star QB Manning type player. The safer picks are Calvin Johnson,Gaines Adams, Joe Thomas. That's my opinion mixed in with some radio I've listened to.

QB mistakes are just tougher to find.

Talent and need being equal you take the QB.

Now, if you think Russell and Quinn are mediocre and Thomas or Johnson is great, take the talent. But in the case of Thomas, there is no consensus at all that he is any more talented at his position than Russell so he's crossed off. Johnson is different, most think he's a more talented WR than Russell is a QB - but there's a big gap in value of QB over WR; that makes it a tough call. Russell vs. Thomas is no issue.

 

[14thDragon]

Completely agreed. The whole draft is mining for gold but if you look at the QB's drafted the last twenty years in the first round you will find some very discouraging results if you are looking for a Super Star QB Manning type player. The safer picks are Calvin Johnson,Gaines Adams, Joe Thomas. That's my opinion mixed in with some radio I've listened to.

Yeah, there might be safer options to go with, but all that gets you is back into the top ten next year and the year after. The safe picks are not safe because they have a greater chance of being right, but because it is harder to tell that it was wrong. If you get a tackle that becomes a bit of a bust, it takes a while to see that because not a lot of people are watching the tackle or the DE. You take a reciever, if he just gets out on to the field then it is easy enough to mask if he is not the Jerry Rice. But having a bad QB you can't cover-up. The position is just too important.

You are not trying to get Peyton Manning with that first pick, you are trying to get a Drew Brees. You need a guy who can stablize the offense and stablize the team and then you can put pieces around him.

 

[14thDragon]

Now, if you think Russell and Quinn are mediocre and Thomas or Johnson is great, take the talent.

The question is not so much the difference between Russell and Quinn vs Thomas and Johnson, but Russell and Quin and Drew Stanton and Beck.

For the Raiders, they need a quarterback to build around, the Lions as well. That means sometime they need to get one. It is pretty rare that you can get a franchise quarterback in free agency. Neither of these teams were able to do that. You can occasionally get a frachise quarterback in a trade, provided the other guy has some-one better. But there is no-one really on the block to build around. So that leaves drafting a guy. So if it is not Quinn or Russell you need to then say who is going to be avaible next go round. Martz and Millen have said that they believe that Staton is a better fit for thier offense. So they are willing to pass on Quinn and Russell and come back in rd. 2. Dangerous proposition, but it might work. But if you look at the past few draft, you get a whole lot more starting qualty qbs in rd 1 then you do later on in the draft.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Kolb and Beck could be Drew Brees type players. I know that there is a possibility CJ or Thomas busts. Look at Robert Gallery and Charles Rogers. But to me Calvin Johnson is worth it if he is as good as everyone thinks he is. I would go CJ and Kolb or trade down and get Thomas and Kolb if I were the Raiders. If they are going to go with a QB? My opinion is Quinn will be better than Russel.

 

[dhamz]

Completely agreed. The whole draft is mining for gold but if you look at the QB's drafted the last twenty years in the first round you will find some very discouraging results if you are looking for a Super Star QB Manning type player. The safer picks are Calvin Johnson,Gaines Adams, Joe Thomas. That's my opinion mixed in with some radio I've listened to.

QB busts just get way more publicity than other positions because QB is the most high profile position - Ryan Leaf's name somehow still gets thrown around a decade later as the reason to be scared of Russell or Quinn. When talking about Thomas no one mentions the enormous bust that is Robert Gallery who was a much more highly rated T from the same college conference just a couple years ago. Same could go for Adams/Courtney Brown or Johnson/pick your bust at WR where there have been too many to list.

The truth is there is no safe position - there are busts at the top of the draft at every position.