Historically, The first round is a crapshoot

[PushnPencils]

I got bored today and decided to take a look at all the first rounds since 1990.

I found something interesting. Less than 25% of the 1st round picks during during that 17 year period actually panned out to be substantial contributors in the NFL. I'm not talking about, Pro-bowl level or Hall of famer level performers here. Just starters or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve, which should be less than expected from a 1st rounder.

Interestingly, I found much greater historical contribution from latter round players, especially 2nd and 3rd rounders.

What my point is, is that this 2007 draft is considered weak at the top end but that really shouldn't mean much since the majority of true contributors have been found after round 1 anyway.

Take a look at the 90-93 1st rounders. You'd puke.

 

[spacecrime]

the majority of true contributors have been found after round 1 anyway.

I wish you were in my fantasy league. I would give you a chance to prove this by taking your first round pick off your hands and giving you my last round pick.

But of course you are wrong. There are more true contributors from the first round than any other round.

I would also say that your thread title is wrong, or at best misleading.

Round 7 is the biggest crapshoot, followed by round 6.

Round one is the least crapshoot of all the rounds.

A player drafted in round one is much more likely to be a true contributor than a player drafted in any other round, which is the opposite of what you appear to be saying.

 

[captain stone]

"The draft [incl. first round] is just a crapshoot anyway" is a piss-poor excuse made by hometown apologists whenever their team effs-up by ignoring, e.g., Nathan Vasher in favor of Guss Scott, or Michael Turner for Cedric Cobbs. Those are just hypothetical examples, of course, that would never really happen...

 

[spacecrime]

I got bored today and decided to take a look at all the first rounds since 1990.

I found something interesting. Less than 25% of the 1st round picks during during that 17 year period actually panned out to be substantial contributors in the NFL. I'm not talking about, Pro-bowl level or Hall of famer level performers here. Just starters or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve, which should be less than expected from a 1st rounder.

Take a look at the 90-93 1st rounders. You'd puke.

I thought about this some more, and I think you made this whole thing up. Less than 25% means that 7 or fewere first round picks start "or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve" (your definition). This is silly, but I am as bored as you, so I looked at first rounders too.

http://www.drafthistory.com/rounds/round_1.html

I looked at the 90-93 1st rounders, the rounds you say are the worst, and a quick glance shows me that almost all started, never mind merely contribute a decent amount of time as a reserve. I don't know how to format it but here is the list (there were 111 players drafted those three years, including supplemental. 25% is only 27. Want to look again before saying there were only 27 starters on this list

Drew Bledsoe - - Patriots - - QB - - 1993
Rick Mirer - - Seahawks - - QB - - 1993
Garrison Hearst - - Cardinals - - RB - - 1993
Marvin Jones - - Jets - - LB - - 1993
John Copeland - - Bengals - - DE - - 1993
Eric Curry - - Buccaneers - - DE - - 1993
Curtis Conway - - Bears - - WR - - 1993
Willie Roaf - - Saints - - T - - 1993
Lincoln Kennedy - - Falcons - - T - - 1993
Jerome Bettis - - Rams - - RB - - 1993
Dan Williams - - Broncos - - DE - - 1993
Patrick Bates - - Raiders - - DB - - 1993
Brad Hopkins - - Oilers - - T - - 1993
Steve Everitt - - Browns - - C - - 1993
Wayne Simmons - - Packers - - LB - - 1993
Sean Dawkins - - Colts - - WR - - 1993
Tom Carter - - Redskins - - DB - - 1993
Ernest Dye - - Cardinals - - T - - 1993
Lester Holmes - - Eagles - - G - - 1993
Irv Smith - - Saints - - TE - - 1993
Robert Smith - - Vikings - - RB - - 1993
Darrien Gordon - - Chargers - - DB - - 1993
Deon Figures - - Steelers - - DB - - 1993
Leonard Renfro - - Eagles - - DT - - 1993
O.J. McDuffie - - Dolphins - - WR - - 1993
Dana Stubblefield - - 49ers - - DT - - 1993
Todd Kelly - - 49ers - - DE - - 1993
Thomas Smith - - Bills - - DB - - 1993
George Teague - - Packers - - DB - - 1993
Dave Brown - - Giants - - QB - - 1992s
Steve Emtman - - Colts - - DT - - 1992
Quentin Coryatt - - Colts - - LB - - 1992
Sean Gilbert - - Rams - - DT - - 1992
Desmond Howard - - Redskins - - WR - - 1992
Terrell Buckley - - Packers - - DB - - 1992
David Klingler - - Bengals - - QB - - 1992
Troy Vincent - - Dolphins - - DB - - 1992
Bob Whitfield - - Falcons - - T - - 1992
Tommy Vardell - - Browns - - RB - - 1992
Ray Roberts - - Seahawks - - T - - 1992
Leon Searcy - - Steelers - - T - - 1992
Marco Coleman - - Dolphins - - DE - - 1992
Eugene Chung - - Patriots - - T - - 1992
Derek Brown - - Giants - - TE - - 1992
Johnny Mitchell - - Jets - - TE - - 1992
Chester McGlockton - - Raiders - - DT - - 1992
Kevin Smith - - Cowboys - - DB - - 1992
Dana Hall - - 49ers - - DB - - 1992
Troy Smith - - Falcons - - RB - - 1992
Dale Carter - - Chiefs - - DB - - 1992
Vaughn Dunbar - - Saints - - RB - - 1992
Alonzo Spellman - - Bears - - DE - - 1992
Chris Mims - - Chargers - - DE - - 1992
Robert Jones - - Cowboys - - LB - - 1992
Tommy Maddox - - Broncos - - QB - - 1992
Robert Porcher - - Lions - - DE - - 1992
John Fina - - Bills - - T - - 1992
Darryl Williams - - Bengals - - DB - - 1992
Russell Maryland - - Cowboys - - DT - - 1991
Eric Turner - - Browns - - DB - - 1991
Bruce Pickens - - Falcons - - DB - - 1991
Mike Croel - - Broncos - - LB - - 1991
Todd Lyght - - Rams - - DB - - 1991
Eric Swann - - Cardinals - - DE - - 1991
Charles McRae - - Buccaneers - - T - - 1991
Antone Davis - - Eagles - - T - - 1991
Stanley Richard - - Chargers - - DB - - 1991
Herman Moore - - Lions - - WR - - 1991
Pat Harlow - - Patriots - - T - - 1991
Alvin Harper - - Cowboys - - WR - - 1991
Mike Pritchard - - Falcons - - WR - - 1991
Leonard Russell - - Patriots - - RB - - 1991
Huey Richardson - - Steelers - - LB - - 1991
Dan McGwire - - Seahawks - - QB - - 1991
Bobby Wilson - - Redskins - - DT - - 1991
Alfred Williams - - Bengals - - LB - - 1991
Vinnie Clark - - Packers - - DB - - 1991
Kelvin Pritchett - - Cowboys - - DT - - 1991
Harvey Williams - - Chiefs - - RB - - 1991
Stan Thomas - - Bears - - T - - 1991
Randal Hill - - Dolphins - - WR - - 1991
Todd Marinovich - - Raiders - - QB - - 1991
Ted Washington - - 49ers - - DT - - 1991
Henry Jones - - Bills - - DB - - 1991
Jarrod Bunch - - Giants - - RB - - 1991
Rob Moore - - Jets - - WR - - 1990s
Jeff George - - Colts - - QB - - 1990
Blair Thomas - - Jets - - RB - - 1990
Cortez Kennedy - - Seahawks - - DT - - 1990
Keith McCants - - Buccaneers - - LB - - 1990
Junior Seau - - Chargers - - LB - - 1990
Mark Carrier - - Bears - - DB - - 1990
Andre Ware - - Lions - - QB - - 1990
Chris Singleton - - Patriots - - LB - - 1990
Richmond Webb - - Dolphins - - T - - 1990
Ray Agnew - - Patriots - - DE - - 1990
Anthony Smith - - Raiders - - DE - - 1990
James Francis - - Bengals - - LB - - 1990
Percy Snow - - Chiefs - - LB - - 1990
Renaldo Turnbull - - Saints - - DE - - 1990
Lamar Lathon - - Oilers - - LB - - 1990
James Williams - - Bills - - DB - - 1990
Emmitt Smith - - Cowboys - - RB - - 1990
Tony Bennett - - Packers - - LB - - 1990
Darrell Thompson - - Packers - - RB - - 1990
Steve Broussard - - Falcons - - RB - - 1990
Eric Green - - Steelers - - TE - - 1990
Ben Smith - - Eagles - - DB - - 1990
Bern Brostek - - Rams - - C - - 1990
Rodney Hampton - - Giants - - RB - - 1990
Dexter Carter - - 49ers - - RB - - 1990

 

[PushnPencils]

When you're picking in the first round, what you're looking for is a solid perrenial starter at the very least and hopefully a pro-bowl caliber player.

So your list is full of wonderful names but let's base it on whether they lived up to their first round potential. The asterisk designates they fit the bill.

Drew Bledsoe - - Patriots - - QB - - 1993*
Rick Mirer - - Seahawks - - QB - - 1993
Garrison Hearst - - Cardinals - - RB - - 1993*
Marvin Jones - - Jets - - LB - - 1993
John Copeland - - Bengals - - DE - - 1993
Eric Curry - - Buccaneers - - DE - - 1993
Curtis Conway - - Bears - - WR - - 1993
Willie Roaf - - Saints - - T - - 1993*
Lincoln Kennedy - - Falcons - - T - - 1993*
Jerome Bettis - - Rams - - RB - - 1993*
Dan Williams - - Broncos - - DE - - 1993*
Patrick Bates - - Raiders - - DB - - 1993
Brad Hopkins - - Oilers - - T - - 1993*
Steve Everitt - - Browns - - C - - 1993
Wayne Simmons - - Packers - - LB - - 1993
Sean Dawkins - - Colts - - WR - - 1993
Tom Carter - - Redskins - - DB - - 1993
Ernest Dye - - Cardinals - - T - - 1993
Lester Holmes - - Eagles - - G - - 1993
Irv Smith - - Saints - - TE - - 1993
Robert Smith - - Vikings - - RB - - 1993*
Darrien Gordon - - Chargers - - DB - - 1993
Deon Figures - - Steelers - - DB - - 1993
Leonard Renfro - - Eagles - - DT - - 1993
O.J. McDuffie - - Dolphins - - WR - - 1993
Dana Stubblefield - - 49ers - - DT - - 1993*
Todd Kelly - - 49ers - - DE - - 1993
Thomas Smith - - Bills - - DB - - 1993
George Teague - - Packers - - DB - - 1993
Dave Brown - - Giants - - QB - - 1992
Steve Emtman - - Colts - - DT - - 1992
Quentin Coryatt - - Colts - - LB - - 1992
Sean Gilbert - - Rams - - DT - - 1992*
Desmond Howard - - Redskins - - WR - - 1992*
Terrell Buckley - - Packers - - DB - - 1992*
David Klingler - - Bengals - - QB - - 1992
Troy Vincent - - Dolphins - - DB - - 1992*
Bob Whitfield - - Falcons - - T - - 1992*
Tommy Vardell - - Browns - - RB - - 1992
Ray Roberts - - Seahawks - - T - - 1992*
Leon Searcy - - Steelers - - T - - 1992*
Marco Coleman - - Dolphins - - DE - - 1992*
Eugene Chung - - Patriots - - T - - 1992
Derek Brown - - Giants - - TE - - 1992
Johnny Mitchell - - Jets - - TE - - 1992
Chester McGlockton - - Raiders - - DT - - * 1992
Kevin Smith - - Cowboys - - DB - - 1992*
Dana Hall - - 49ers - - DB - - 1992
Troy Smith - - Falcons - - RB - - 1992
Dale Carter - - Chiefs - - DB - - 1992*
Vaughn Dunbar - - Saints - - RB - - 1992
Alonzo Spellman - - Bears - - DE - - 1992*
Chris Mims - - Chargers - - DE - - 1992
Robert Jones - - Cowboys - - LB - - 1992
Tommy Maddox - - Broncos - - QB - - 1992
Robert Porcher - - Lions - - DE - - 1992*
John Fina - - Bills - - T - - 1992*
Darryl Williams - - Bengals - - DB - - 1992
Russell Maryland - - Cowboys - - DT - - 1991*
Eric Turner - - Browns - - DB - - 1991*
Bruce Pickens - - Falcons - - DB - - 1991
Mike Croel - - Broncos - - LB - - 1991
Todd Lyght - - Rams - - DB - - 1991*
Eric Swann - - Cardinals - - DE - - 1991
Charles McRae - - Buccaneers - - T - - 1991
Antone Davis - - Eagles - - T - - 1991
Stanley Richard - - Chargers - - DB - - 1991
Herman Moore - - Lions - - WR - - 1991*
Pat Harlow - - Patriots - - T - - 1991
Alvin Harper - - Cowboys - - WR - - 1991
Mike Pritchard - - Falcons - - WR - - 1991
Leonard Russell - - Patriots - - RB - - 1991
Huey Richardson - - Steelers - - LB - - 1991
Dan McGwire - - Seahawks - - QB - - 1991
Bobby Wilson - - Redskins - - DT - - 1991
Alfred Williams - - Bengals - - LB - - 1991
Vinnie Clark - - Packers - - DB - - 1991
Kelvin Pritchett - - Cowboys - - DT - - 1991
Harvey Williams - - Chiefs - - RB - - 1991
Stan Thomas - - Bears - - T - - 1991
Randal Hill - - Dolphins - - WR - - 1991
Todd Marinovich - - Raiders - - QB - - 1991
Ted Washington - - 49ers - - DT - - 1991*
Henry Jones - - Bills - - DB - - 1991
Jarrod Bunch - - Giants - - RB - - 1991
Rob Moore - - Jets - - WR - - 1990s
Jeff George - - Colts - - QB - - 1990
Blair Thomas - - Jets - - RB - - 1990
Cortez Kennedy - - Seahawks - - DT - - 1990
Keith McCants - - Buccaneers - - LB - - 1990
Junior Seau - - Chargers - - LB - - 1990*
Mark Carrier - - Bears - - DB - - 1990*
Andre Ware - - Lions - - QB - - 1990
Chris Singleton - - Patriots - - LB - - 1990
Richmond Webb - - Dolphins - - T - - 1990*
Ray Agnew - - Patriots - - DE - - 1990
Anthony Smith - - Raiders - - DE - - 1990
James Francis - - Bengals - - LB - - 1990
Percy Snow - - Chiefs - - LB - - 1990
Renaldo Turnbull - - Saints - - DE - - 1990
Lamar Lathon - - Oilers - - LB - - 1990*
James Williams - - Bills - - DB - - 1990
Emmitt Smith - - Cowboys - - RB - - 1990*
Tony Bennett - - Packers - - LB - - 1990
Darrell Thompson - - Packers - - RB - - 1990
Steve Broussard - - Falcons - - RB - - 1990
Eric Green - - Steelers - - TE - - 1990
Ben Smith - - Eagles - - DB - - 1990
Bern Brostek - - Rams - - C - - 1990
Rodney Hampton - - Giants - - RB - - 1990*
Dexter Carter - - 49ers - - RB - - 1990

111 total picks. 33 guys in my opinion who met their 1st rounders potential. Some of those 33 I'm stretching on too. That calculates out to 28%. Pardon me as I was off by 3%.

 

[DaBruinz]

Pushn -
How is it that your list of players that supposedly didn't live up to their 1st round billing includes players like:

Eric Green, Cortez Kennedy, Marvin Jones, Curtis Conway, Eric Swann, Lester Holmes, Kelvin Pritchett.

That's another 7 players and I really didn't get too in depth in researching the list.

So that is 40 out of 111. And, that is about 36%. Which is 11% more than your claimed 25%.
​

 

[PushnPencils]

Pushn -
How is it that your list of players that supposedly didn't live up to their 1st round billing includes players like:

Eric Green, Cortez Kennedy, Marvin Jones, Curtis Conway, Eric Swann, Lester Holmes, Kelvin Pritchett.

That's another 7 players and I really didn't get too in depth in researching the list.

So that is 40 out of 111. And, that is about 36%. Which is 11% more than your claimed 25%.
​

DB, I'll give you Cortez Kennedy. But guys like Green, Marvin Jones, Curtis Conway, Swann, Holmes and Pritchett had above average careers but in no way would I catergorize them as having fulfilled 1st rounder potential.

I'll give you this snippet on Green from Pro-football-reference.com:

Eric Green never finished in the top 10 in any major category.

Eric Green is not in the all-time top 50 in any major category.

All those guys had productivity, but lacked the long-term consistant production and impact a 1st rounder should have.

Ask yourself this question. When you think of the long list of 1st round selections that have been as advertised, where does Eric Swan show up on your list?

I think my problem may be I'm looking for too much from a first rounder. Two or three good years just seems like underachieving to me.

 

[DaBruinz]

DB, I'll give you Cortez Kennedy. But guys like Green, Marvin Jones, Curtis Conway, Swann, Holmes and Pritchett had above average careers but in no way would I catergorize them as having fulfilled 1st rounder potential.

I'll give you this snippet on Green from Pro-football-reference.com:

Eric Green never finished in the top 10 in any major category.

Eric Green is not in the all-time top 50 in any major category.

All those guys had productivity, but lacked the long-term consistant production and impact a 1st rounder should have.

Ask yourself this question. When you think of the long list of 1st round selections that have been as advertised, where does Eric Swan show up on your list?

I think my problem may be I'm looking for too much from a first rounder. Two or three good years just seems like underachieving to me.

I use pro-football-reference.com as well at times. However, I take their comments about not finishing in the top 10 in categories with a grain of salt, honestly. I look at Green and I see that he was a 2 time Pro-Bowler. I also look and see that injuries cost him big. But that doesn't mean he didn't meet the Steelers expectations. I think being a 2 time pro-bowler would fit that.

How do you figure that Marvin Jones didn't live up to his 1st round potential?

One of the things that may be leading to the mis-understanding between us is the definition of "long term." I consider anything over 5 years to be long for a frootball career. O-linemen tend to have longer careers. Wide receivers and RBs tend to have very short careers. Yes, you get the anomolies like Troy Brown and Jerry Rice, but they are not the norm.

When I look at a Lester Holmes, I see that he had one injury year in 1995, but that he was a consistent starter beyond that.

When I think of Eric Swann, I think of a guy who played on lousy Cardinal teams, but still managed to put up a sack every 3 games (or so). Some might consider him a let down because he got injured during his 3rd season, but his best years came AFTER that season, anyways. From 1994-1997 he averaged 7 sacks, 68 tackles (52 solo). Now, I agree that injuries in 1998 and 1999 ended his career, but I don't consider him to be a bust by any stretch of the imagination. And, well, when you consider the Cardinal teams, I can guarantee you that opposing teams were keying in on Swann during game-planning.

 

[patchick]

PushNPencils, I think your criteria for "panning out" look awfully high. If a player has a long career in which he is a significant contributor to his team, that's a solid draft pick. Marvin Jones played for a decade, with a career year in 2000 where he logged 135 tackles and was named a first-team All-Pro. Curtis Conway totaled over 8000 receiving yards. Etc....

I found much greater historical contribution from latter round players, especially 2nd and 3rd rounders.

You really found that a large percentage of later round players contributed more than the likes of Marvin Jones and Curtis Conway? Or do you just mean that rounds 2-7 put together contribute more?

(EDIT: had a messed-up number in the last paragraph.)

 

[PushnPencils]

PushNPencils, I think your criteria for "panning out" look awfully high. If a player has a long career in which he is a significant contributor to his team, that's a solid draft pick. Marvin Jones played for a decade, with a career year in 2000 where he logged 135 tackles and was named a first-team All-Pro. Curtis Conway totaled over 8000 receiving yards. Etc....



You really found that more than three quarters of later round players contributed more than the likes of Marvin Jones and Curtis Conway? Or do you just mean that rounds 2-7 put together contribute more?

I think the majority of fans and most importantly the teams themselves look at players taken in round one optimumly as franchise impacting players. The is reinforced by the level of salary given to 1st rounders as opposed to later rounds.

Marvin Jones racked up some decent, workman-like numbers. But did he fulfill the promise of the 4th pick overall? I don't think so.

Curtis Conway, was the 7th overall pick. He had a productive career stat-wise, but did his longevity and and 8000 yards receiving make him worthy of when he was taken?

Also, the argument I've heard regarding the fact that they've been drafted by a bad team doesn't work for me. Great players rise above their circumstances and still produce prolific numbers.

Steve Largent (4th rounder) played with an average to below average team his whole career and what did he accomplish?

To me, the baseline for a first rounder is a guy like Al Wilson taken by Denver as the last pick in the first round. Every year was productive for him and also he brought leadership and cohesion to his team. Was a pro bowler 5 times. Will he be a Hall of Famer? Probably not. He had decent players around him for most of his career, but you know for a fact he would have excelled wherever he played.

He won't have the longevity of some players, but the years he did play, there was consistant production.

A guy like him is the least you should expect from a first rounder.

 

[GoWesleyan]

It seems like PnP's criteria for counting a player is changing over the course of this thread. The initial post implied that included in the 25% were reserve players that contributed significant playing time ... now PnP is saying that guys that made the probowl a few times don't count if they were drafted high in the first round.

PnP, can you please clariify your claim? What was your methodology for counting and what is your conclusion?

 

[patchick]

I think the majority of fans and most importantly the teams themselves look at players taken in round one optimumly as franchise impacting players. The is reinforced by the level of salary given to 1st rounders as opposed to later rounds.

Marvin Jones racked up some decent, workman-like numbers. But did he fulfill the promise of the 4th pick overall? I don't think so.

OK, if your claim is that most 1st-round picks don't live up to the dreams teams (and fans) hold for their potential as "franchise impacting players," no arguments. But that's very different from the criteria you defined to begin with:

I'm not talking about, Pro-bowl level or Hall of famer level performers here. Just starters or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve, which should be less than expected from a 1st rounder.

Even assuming we switch to the new criteria, did you really find a much higher percentage of "franchise impacting players" in the later rounds? If you look at the players who are routinely cited as among the league's best, round-one picks are wildly overrepresented --- guys like Manning, Champ Bailey, Tomlinson, Seymour, Marvin Harrison, Urlacher, Merriman, etc. Brady's 6th-round status is legendary because it's so unusual.

 

[MosisMooses]

To me, the baseline for a first rounder is a guy like Al Wilson taken by Denver as the last pick in the first round. Every year was productive for him and also he brought leadership and cohesion to his team. Was a pro bowler 5 times. Will he be a Hall of Famer? Probably not. He had decent players around him for most of his career, but you know for a fact he would have excelled wherever he played.

If Al Wilson's 5 Pro Bowl apperances is the baseline, then besides Seymour, have any other Belichick first rounders met your standard?

 

[PushnPencils]

It seems like PnP's criteria for counting a player is changing over the course of this thread. The initial post implied that included in the 25% were reserve players that contributed significant playing time ... now PnP is saying that guys that made the probowl a few times don't count if they were drafted high in the first round.

PnP, can you please clariify your claim? What was your methodology for counting and what is your conclusion?

That was never my implication.

My point was that after 17 years, overall only 25% or less actually made some kind of contribution in the league, ranging from HOF caliber to substantial reserve contributer.

Let's look at the 2002 draft. I chose it because a good enough time has past to gauge what these guys are all about. Look at the names and you tell me how many are living up to there first round billing. I'll highlight who I think has performed to expectations, namely high impact players worthy of their salaries.

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams SS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee 10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State
11 Indianapolis Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse 12 Arizona Wendell Bryant DT Wisconsin
13 New Orleans Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee
14 N.Y. Giants Jeremy Shockey TE Miami
15 Tennessee Albert Haynesworth DT Tennessee
16 Cleveland William Green RB Boston College
17 Oakland Phillip Buchanon CB Miami
18 Atlanta T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State
19 Denver Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii
20 Green Bay Javon Walker WR Florida State
21 New England Daniel Graham TE Colorado
22 N.Y. Jets Bryan Thomas DE Ala.-Birmingham
23 Oakland Napoleon Harris MLB Northwestern
24 Baltimore Ed Reed FS Miami 25 New Orleans Charles Grant DE Georgia
26 Philadelphia Lito Sheppard CB Florida
27 San Francisco Mike Rumph CB Miami
28 Seattle Jerramy Stevens TE Washington
29 Chicago Marc Colombo T Boston College
30 Pittsburgh Kendall Simmons G Auburn
31 St. Louis Robert Thomas MLB UCLA
32 Washington Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane

That's 28%. My criteria has never changed from my first comment of the thread. Aside from a total bust, you'd hope to get at least a solid everday player. But that to me is not what a first rounder is. A first round talents contribution should be equivalent to their salary.

 

[PushnPencils]

If Al Wilson's 5 Pro Bowl apperances is the baseline, then besides Seymour, have any other Belichick first rounders met your standard?

Ty Warren is gradually fulfilling the promise. Let's give Wilfork and Mankins another year or two. But so far so good.

Graham was a nice player for sure. Great blocker but his career shows him having very average hands. He was touted as the complete package coming out of college.

Watson has shown flashes of special play. But those flashes don't make me consider him great 1st rounder.

Maroney's situation is similar to Watson's. This season will be a nice litmus test.

 

[PushnPencils]

OK, if your claim is that most 1st-round picks don't live up to the dreams teams (and fans) hold for their potential as "franchise impacting players," no arguments. But that's very different from the criteria you defined to begin with:



Even assuming we switch to the new criteria, did you really find a much higher percentage of "franchise impacting players" in the later rounds? If you look at the players who are routinely cited as among the league's best, round-one picks are wildly overrepresented --- guys like Manning, Champ Bailey, Tomlinson, Seymour, Marvin Harrison, Urlacher, Merriman, etc. Brady's 6th-round status is legendary because it's so unusual.[/QUOTE]

I'm glad you threw Marvin Harrison in there. A first rounder from 1996!

Around 347 players were taken in the first round from 1996 to 2006. How many Marvin Harrisons do you have?

 

[patchick]

I'm glad you threw Marvin Harrison in there. A first rounder from 1996!

Around 347 players were taken in the first round from 1996 to 2006. How many Marvin Harrisons do you have?

PnP, you keep climbing the ladder with your criteria! First it was: "Just starters or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve." Then it became "franchise impacting players" or multi-probowl players like Al Wilson. Now it's "Marvin Harrisons" -- i.e., first-ballot hall-of-famers!

Whichever criteria you choose, just go ahead and address the fundamental claim of this whole thread: that such players are more likely to be found in later rounds, while the 1st round is a crapshoot.

To get it started, let's look at the recent HOF inductees from the modern NFL era:

2007
Irvin -- round 1
Thomas -- round 2
Matthews -- round 1

2006
Aikman -- round 1
White -- round 1 (supplemental)
Moon -- CFL

2005
Marino -- round 1
Young -- round 1 (supplemental)

I really, really don't think your claim is true.

 

[PushnPencils]

PnP, you keep climbing the ladder with your criteria! First it was: "Just starters or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve." Then it became "franchise impacting players" or multi-probowl players like Al Wilson. Now it's "Marvin Harrisons" -- i.e., first-ballot hall-of-famers!

Whichever criteria you choose, just go ahead and address the fundamental claim of this whole thread: that such players are more likely to be found in later rounds, while the 1st round is a crapshoot.

To get it started, let's look at the recent HOF inductees from the modern NFL era:

2007
Irvin -- round 1
Thomas -- round 2
Matthews -- round 1

2006
Aikman -- round 1
White -- round 1 (supplemental)
Moon -- CFL

2005
Marino -- round 1
Young -- round 1 (supplemental)

I really, really don't think your claim is true.

Here's what I'll do and it'll be a little wekend project of mine.

I'll compile a list of all first round picks that didn't pan out. Although I'm sure I presented my original post incorrectly as to what the criteria were, the base criteria will be "solid contributor/even as a reserve".

Let's see what I come up with.

 

[patchick]

Here's what I'll do and it'll be a little wekend project of mine.

I'll compile a list of all first round picks that didn't pan out.

Oh dear, please don't waste your weekend on that! Nobody would ever disagree with the claim that many first round picks disappoint. The disagreement was over the claim that the first round is a "crapshoot" compared to other rounds that more reliably yield strong performers. If you still think that rounds 2-3 have a higher hit rate, I'd be interested in seeing that data. If not, there are lots of better ways to enjoy your weekend.

 

[PushnPencils]

Oh dear, please don't waste your weekend on that! Nobody would ever disagree with the claim that many first round picks disappoint. The disagreement was over the claim that the first round is a "crapshoot" compared to other rounds that more reliably yield strong performers. If you still think that rounds 2-3 have a higher hit rate, I'd be interested in seeing that data. If not, there are lots of better ways to enjoy your weekend.

You'd think so, but I pretty much have no life so this will be the highlight of my weekend.