AFC East Analysis by FootballOutsiders 4/9

[italia44]

Reasoned analysis of AFC East:
(hint:they don't think much of the Pats LB's)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/09/ramblings/four-downs/5059/

 

[mosi]

Reasoned analysis of AFC East:
(hint:they don't think much of the Pats LB's)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/09/ramblings/four-downs/5059/

That is a good balanced assessment. And they are right about the draft. What ever the Patriots do, it is not going to be something that anybody expects.

 

[ironwasp]

I think it's a pretty fair and accurate assessment of where we are and what we need. The ILB situation is the one that keeps me awake at night.

 

[WhiZa]

It's interesting that he says anything less than a season like last for AD would be a disappointment. I've thought of it as if he upgrades our last years production at the position then it was a success. What do people expect from AD?

Another interesting excerpt was the Jets drafting Leonard. He'd fit very well for them and it will be interesting if they try drafting him in the first or wait till the 2nd.

 

[ironwasp]

It's interesting that he says anything less than a season like last for AD would be a disappointment. I've thought of it as if he upgrades our last years production at the position then it was a success. What do people expect from AD?

Another interesting excerpt was the Jets drafting Leonard. He'd fit very well for them and it will be interesting if they try drafting him in the first or wait till the 2nd.

I don't think it makes much sense to compare what AD might do for us with what he did with Baltimore. He's likely to de deployed in a different way in a different scheme. I'm looking for him to inject some dynamism into our pass rushing, to set the edge better than TBC managed and to put a bit of speed into coverage.

As for the Jets and Leonard. The first's a bit of a reach, but if he's what they need, then why not?

 

[Oswlek]

It's interesting that he says anything less than a season like last for AD would be a disappointment. I've thought of it as if he upgrades our last years production at the position then it was a success. What do people expect from AD?

Another interesting excerpt was the Jets drafting Leonard. He'd fit very well for them and it will be interesting if they try drafting him in the first or wait till the 2nd.

Essentially, he is saying that Pats fans are too stupid to understand that a season devoid of sacks could still be a success.

That wasn't that bad, but Bill Barnwell also writes for the round table part of GDRV on bostonsportsmedia.com and I loathe his contributions. 90% of what he says is off base and he generally comes across as your average, uninformed, non-Pats fan.

 

[stinkypete]

That is a good balanced assessment. And they are right about the draft. What ever the Patriots do, it is not going to be something that anybody expects.

I'm not so sure about that. During the 2002, we realized that the defensive tackle position was a glaring weakness. We responded by drafting 3 defensive linemen and then trading for another.

It could be argued that the 2006 playoffs exposed a new glaring weakness, the run defense of our linebackers. If the front office feels that is also a glaring need, then we will draft there.

 

[dryheat44]

Essentially, he is saying that Pats fans are too stupid to understand that a season devoid of sacks could still be a success.

That wasn't that bad, but Bill Barnwell also writes for the round table part of GDRV on bostonsportsmedia.com and I loathe his contributions. 90% of what he says is off base and he generally comes across as your average, uninformed, non-Pats fan.

He's definitely the weak link in an otherwise outstanding team of writers.

 

[Patstopia]

Seemed unbiased until the Jets analysis.

 

[PatriotsRiot93]

An alternate move would be to draft a safety like Reggie Nelson or Michael Griffin to eventually replace Rodney Harrison in the secondary, with “eventually” likely meaning “sometime around Week 5.”

That's probably the truest line there....and scariest...

 

[Don Kipines]

An alternate move would be to draft a safety like Reggie Nelson or Michael Griffin to eventually replace Rodney Harrison in the secondary, with “eventually” likely meaning “sometime around Week 5.”

That's probably the truest line there....and scariest...

Rodney hasn't looked good in a while, but he's still kind of a mystery because of the injuries. I thought he was starting to round into shape by the end of last season, though.

 

[Fixit]

An alternate move would be to draft a safety like Reggie Nelson or Michael Griffin to eventually replace Rodney Harrison in the secondary, with “eventually” likely meaning “sometime around Week 5.”

That's probably the truest line there....and scariest...

It's not even like the guy's the textbook version of injury prone. He's not blowing out hammies, or rolling his ankle, or just sad on gamedays. He had one guy "blocked" into his knee during the Pittsburgh game, tearing the hell out of it; he broke his clavicle when a guy he was tackling fell on top of him just right; and a dirty Tennessee bastard cheap-shotted him on his knee, just before the playoffs.

Three freak injuries over two seasons. Rodney may just be cursed.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He's definitely the weak link in an otherwise outstanding team of writers.

#30 - Welker was 47th in the league by DVOA last year. There are plenty of receivers ahead of him.

:: Bill Barnwell — 4/9/2007 @ 1:51 pm

He kinda lost me on the slot receiver analysis. Are there really that many guys just dying to go over the middle who can also actually catch the ball, let alone rank 47th among WR in a 32 team league with what he apparently now acknowledges as flotsum and jetsum at QB and WR surrounding them in Miami? Where did our slot receiver rank in the league in 2006 and where Welker ranked among other slot receivers (including factoring in any ST contributions) might provide more illuminating statistical analysis of the move than his feeble I think the Pat's obviously overspent on an FA acquisition...which we so often see them do.

It will be interesting to see what happens to his analysis if we end up with a 2nd rounder courtesy of the "quiet" JETS who are in such a great position with their lone 1st and 2 2nds, let alone if we end up without the good/bad Asante scenario but with 3 1st or the equivalent in compensation on a trade.

I have no problem with stat geeks investing countless hours to attempt to quantify individual performance. Even though they too seldom have a clue what the player and his teamates on any given play were supposed/expected to be doing - which injects a dash of subjectivity into the quantification. But when it comes to the final analysis of what significance all that quantification represents, I take them all with a grain of salt. As the Bill whose opinion on player personnel I give more credence to says, it doesn't matter what a player did in another system so much as what he can do in this system.

And obviously you would say the same for Thomas, who likely will be used quite differently here. And at the end of the day all Pat's fans will care about is did we win? Save those among us who engage in fantasy football, Pat's fans have been conditioned to to see the sum of the parts as the whole and suiting up for championship games as the lone significant goal.