Desperation Move....Not going to Work

[italia44]

This is a move of desperation by Asante and his agent.Here's why:

He knows that he will NEVER get a Clements'-type offer from the Patriots.

The Pats don't care if Asante gets a better offer from another team.......It WON'T markedly change their offer.

Ergo,his only viable strategy is to attempt to "force" a draft-day trade.This isn't going to work as there is only a NEED on one-side......Asante's.
There is no realistic NEED on the Patriots side.

Asante's fall-back strategy is the HOLDOUT.
This is the worst of his options...

Why?.......There is a perception,both here and around the League that Samuel MAYBE a one-year wonder....Now,I'm talking perception,true or not,this will seriously damage Asante's value AFTER the draft.

What will happen if Asante doesn't sign the tender by July 16?

1.BB/SP will draft a CB
2.BB will move Hobbs/Wilson/Gay/DraftCB to the LCB postion(this is the elite,money-CB position).
3.Upon his return(game 1-10),Asante will go back
to RCB or Nickleback.

Will this cause a total collapse of the Patriots defense?.....I think you know the answer.

Will this degrade Asante's value next year?
You betcha!.....BB knows this and so does Asante.

There is NO WAY,BB will pay the Franchise tender of 10-11M next year.

WHY?......because the "perception",mentioned above will become the "reality".

This strategy is desperate,it's not going to work,not
with a team as loaded as the Patriots are.

BB/SP will do nothing.....and unless they're offered a mega-trade,like TWO #1's,They don't NEED to do anything.

This is why Asante and his agent are "screaming in
the dark",a WHOLE MONTH before the Draft.

sorry Asante.....nobody's listening.IMHO

 

[Pats726]

This is a move of desperation by Asante and his agent.Here's why:

He knows that he will NEVER get a Clements'-type offer from the Patriots.

The Pats don't care if Asante gets a better offer from another team.......It WON'T markedly change their offer.

Ergo,his only viable strategy is to attempt to "force" a draft-day trade.This isn't going to work as there is only a NEED on one-side......Asante's.
There is no realistic NEED on the Patriots side.

Asante's fall-back strategy is the HOLDOUT.
This is the worst of his options...

Why?.......There is a perception,both here and around the League that Samuel MAYBE a one-year wonder....Now,I'm talking perception,true or not,this will seriously damage Asante's value AFTER the draft.

What will happen if Asante doesn't sign the tender by July 16?

1.BB/SP will draft a CB
2.BB will move Hobbs/Wilson/Gay/DraftCB to the LCB postion(this is the elite,money-CB position).
3.Upon his return(game 1-10),Asante will go back
to RCB or Nickleback.

Will this cause a total collapse of the Patriots defense?.....I think you know the answer.

Will this degrade Asante's value next year?
You betcha!.....BB knows this and so does Asante.

There is NO WAY,BB will pay the Franchise tender of 10-11M next year.

WHY?......because the "perception",mentioned above will become the "reality".

This strategy is desperate,it's not going to work,not
with a team as loaded as the Patriots are.

BB/SP will do nothing.....and unless they're offered a mega-trade,like TWO #1's,They don't NEED to do anything.

This is why Asante and his agent are "screaming in
the dark",a WHOLE MONTH before the Draft.

sorry Asante.....nobody's listening.IMHO

I agree...and the Patriots will put themselves in a better position if they come up with a CB in teh first few rounds..This is a solid move on many counts..if AS is NOT with the team,
they are in a position to replace him...and if he does get sense and play with the team, the team will be that much deeper.
One would think that AS would know that the team will NOT budge and that this press will just hurt him more..If he doesn't sign the tender..he sits out..a non accrued season and the Pats can spend his money..(I doubt he will hold out..) IF they do get a CB..and things work out...and he still is a problem if they see the money has dried up, the can remove the tag and he is a FA...but there may be NO takers aty that high price..
They are screaming in the dark out of desperation...but it is NOT helping him..BAD stratgey..esp going to the press...

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

This is a move of desperation by Asante and his agent.Here's why:

He knows that he will NEVER get a Clements'-type offer from the Patriots.

The Pats don't care if Asante gets a better offer from another team.......It WON'T markedly change their offer.

Ergo,his only viable strategy is to attempt to "force" a draft-day trade.This isn't going to work as there is only a NEED on one-side......Asante's.
There is no realistic NEED on the Patriots side.

Asante's fall-back strategy is the HOLDOUT.
This is the worst of his options...

Why?.......There is a perception,both here and around the League that Samuel MAYBE a one-year wonder....Now,I'm talking perception,true or not,this will seriously damage Asante's value AFTER the draft.

What will happen if Asante doesn't sign the tender by July 16?

1.BB/SP will draft a CB
2.BB will move Hobbs/Wilson/Gay/DraftCB to the LCB postion(this is the elite,money-CB position).
3.Upon his return(game 1-10),Asante will go back
to RCB or Nickleback.

Will this cause a total collapse of the Patriots defense?.....I think you know the answer.

Will this degrade Asante's value next year?
You betcha!.....BB knows this and so does Asante.

There is NO WAY,BB will pay the Franchise tender of 10-11M next year.

WHY?......because the "perception",mentioned above will become the "reality".

This strategy is desperate,it's not going to work,not
with a team as loaded as the Patriots are.

BB/SP will do nothing.....and unless they're offered a mega-trade,like TWO #1's,They don't NEED to do anything.

This is why Asante and his agent are "screaming in
the dark",a WHOLE MONTH before the Draft.

sorry Asante.....nobody's listening.IMHO

didn't we learn from Deion that the squeaky wheel gets the grease. this is the beginning where he gets more vocal and wants to get traded to a team that will give him his money. He's looking to get himself out of town.

 

[ChoWZa]

This is a move of desperation by Asante and his agent.Here's why:

He knows that he will NEVER get a Clements'-type offer from the Patriots.

The Pats don't care if Asante gets a better offer from another team.......It WON'T markedly change their offer.

Ergo,his only viable strategy is to attempt to "force" a draft-day trade.This isn't going to work as there is only a NEED on one-side......Asante's.
There is no realistic NEED on the Patriots side.

Asante's fall-back strategy is the HOLDOUT.
This is the worst of his options...

Why?.......There is a perception,both here and around the League that Samuel MAYBE a one-year wonder....Now,I'm talking perception,true or not,this will seriously damage Asante's value AFTER the draft.

What will happen if Asante doesn't sign the tender by July 16?

1.BB/SP will draft a CB
2.BB will move Hobbs/Wilson/Gay/DraftCB to the LCB postion(this is the elite,money-CB position).
3.Upon his return(game 1-10),Asante will go back
to RCB or Nickleback.

Will this cause a total collapse of the Patriots defense?.....I think you know the answer.

Will this degrade Asante's value next year?
You betcha!.....BB knows this and so does Asante.

There is NO WAY,BB will pay the Franchise tender of 10-11M next year.

WHY?......because the "perception",mentioned above will become the "reality".

This strategy is desperate,it's not going to work,not
with a team as loaded as the Patriots are.

BB/SP will do nothing.....and unless they're offered a mega-trade,like TWO #1's,They don't NEED to do anything.

This is why Asante and his agent are "screaming in
the dark",a WHOLE MONTH before the Draft.

sorry Asante.....nobody's listening.IMHO

I agree here but I also think this is going pretty much as planned for the Patriots. Now they need to get compensation for him, get rid of that 7.8mil/yr cap hit and hopefully 3 1st rounders this year... Washington's 6th overall? You're telling me Asante's contract is up, and the Patriots somehow end up with 3 1st rounders out of the deal isn't a huge win for the Pats?

This also puts the Pats in great cap position again next year.

 

[italia44]

I agree here but I also think this is going pretty much as planned for the Patriots. Now they need to get compensation for him, get rid of that 7.8mil/yr cap hit and hopefully 3 1st rounders this year... Washington's 6th overall? You're telling me Asante's contract is up, and the Patriots somehow end up with 3 1st rounders out of the deal isn't a huge win for the Pats?

This also puts the Pats in great cap position again next year.

No...it's not better.Why?because it's too soon.

We don't need The possible #6 pick in the draft and the financial cost of such a move

Why not now? because,again,it's too soon.

After the draft,Asante will see his only two viable options.....Which are:

1.sign the Franchise tender by July 16,come to training camp and,most importantly....play like the
elite corner he purports to be.

2.Sign a reasonable 3-5 contract with the Patriots,play like an elite corner and get another huge contract when he's 30-32 yrs old and the salary cap is liable to be 150M per team.

Once the draft is over.....Asante will see this and all this acrimony will disappear.

We don't need any more draft choices.We have young players we need to develop...including Asante Samuel.

 

[solman]

This is a simple matter of negotiating leverage.

Asante can't afford to sit out 2007, while the Patriots CAN afford to allow him sit out. That's a pretty lousy negotiating position.

So Asante has to ask himself: "What CAN I do to put pressure on the Patriots and encourage them to give me a favorable deal?"

His options:

1. Say negative things in the press.
2. Hold out from training camp and the pre-season.

Alternatively:

3. Negotiate a favorable deal with a third team which is willing to give the Patriots enough value in a trade that the Patriots will want to do a deal.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

what's the value of playing on a superbowl contender every year as opposed to playing on one of the nfl's loser franchises. five hundred thousand/year ? one mil. i don't know what it's worth to asante but if he continues to belly ache i say we send him to cleveland or detroit or how 'bout houston. some place where he'll never see the light of day during the playoffs again. see what he thinks about "getting paid" after that.

 

[sebman2112]

This all sounds well and good, but I remember people saying basically the same thing about Deion Branch last year.

To be honest I think NE would trade Asante in a heart beat if some team comes offering their first rounder. NE's only offering Asante 6M/per so that tells you they don't think he's actually worth the franchise tag. Also, we can say "NE can afford him sitting out" all we want but I don't think many organizations and team owners like paying players 7.79M for 10 games of service, especially when that player is healthy and the full amount counts toward the salary cap. If we get down to draft day and Asante still hadn't softened his stance I would trade him then, instead of waiting. That was the only problem with the Deion Branch deal, the pick didn't come until this year so it didn't help the '06 Patriots. If NE could trade him before the draft whatever player they select will impact this year.

I also don't understand playing Asante at nickle CB just to lower his totals, and '08 market value. NE's going to pay Asante Samuel 7.79M and play him at nickle CB? Does that sound like getting the best value out of your investment? This would also make placing the tag on Samuel in '08 somewhat laughable, and he wouldn't have any trade value. Basically what you're advocating is paying Samuel 7.79M this year (no matter how many games he plays) to play nickle CB, then in '08 he won't have the same market value so you will have shown him, and all others how the big boys play. That's a bad idea.

First, Samuel wouldn't resign after this season if NE treated him like crap, and since you will have decreased his market value you wouldn't be able to use the tag and trade method to garner anything of substance.

This means we'd be paying him 7.79M this year (to play nickle CB) then getting nothing when he leaves in '08, and FA's who thought about signing with NE will think twice. Why would those free agents think twice, you ask? Would you want to sign with a team who played their best CB at nickle just to prove something, and harm his market potential? Samuel would probaby start complaining about it, as well. We already know he complained about BB putting Hobbs on Lee Evens. That's not really the type of distraction I want on a championship hopeful team.

 

[DarrylS]

Samuel MAYBE a one-year wonder....Now,I'm talking perception,true or not,this will seriously damage Asante's value AFTER the draft.

What will happen if Asante doesn't sign the tender by July 16?

1.BB/SP will draft a CB
2.BB will move Hobbs/Wilson/Gay/DraftCB to the LCB postion(this is the elite,money-CB position).
3.Upon his return(game 1-10),Asante will go back
to RCB or Nickleback.

This is why Asante and his agent are "screaming in
the dark",a WHOLE MONTH before the Draft.

sorry Asante.....nobody's listening.IMHO

I agree, three mediocre years followed by one outstanding year, IMO he is still playing for a contract.. Clements et al have played at a high level for a few years, Assante and his agent have lofty views of themselves.. don't sign the tender, do not play.. he will be labeled as a "problem player" and still will not have proven himself as anything more than a 1 year wonder... perhaps I simplify this stuff, but for Assante it is a loose loose situation and probably not the best move this guy can make. Most fans will view this simply, he is being offered 7.79 M per year and does not want to play for that??? There is a lot of money on the table right now, take it, play well again and then hit the market.

 

[Pats726]

Do you also think he wishes he didn't go public?? THAT is a tactic...a ploy that players do to garner support against the organization...isn't that usually WHY the press enters into it?? Here, it has NOT helped him at all...maybe fan's thoughts will get some sense into it all. I do agree that after Draft Day, he is even in a worst position...so if anything I would be talking to ALL these teams that supposedly would pay him a boatload of money AND convince them to trade with the Pats. My thought is there MAY be one or two, but I bet the bulk are just feeding teh flames and most likely would NEVER pay him the money. When push comes to shove, he MAY need to fall back abd re-think it all out. I agree it's not a great place a player is in as a Franchise player to negotiate for more, but shouldn't a player BE SATISFIED by being in the top bunch of players...even though IT IS only for a year??

 

[patpatriot]

we can say "NE can afford him sitting out" all we want but I don't think many organizations and team owners like paying players 7.79M for 10 games of service, especially when that player is healthy and the full amount counts toward the salary cap.

If he were healthy and only played 10 games he would only collect 10 game checks, not 16. I suppose he could do that. Kind of minimizes his chances of proving that last year wasn't just a fluke though doesn't it?

 

[satz]

I think people are shooting too high.I would bet if the redskins off their 2nd which is the 38th overall pick the patriots will be all overit.
you get a impact player for way less money at 38 .

 

[italia44]

This all sounds well and good, but I remember people saying basically the same thing about Deion Branch last year.

To be honest I think NE would trade Asante in a heart beat if some team comes offering their first rounder. NE's only offering Asante 6M/per so that tells you they don't think he's actually worth the franchise tag. Also, we can say "NE can afford him sitting out" all we want but I don't think many organizations and team owners like paying players 7.79M for 10 games of service, especially when that player is healthy and the full amount counts toward the salary cap. If we get down to draft day and Asante still hadn't softened his stance I would trade him then, instead of waiting. That was the only problem with the Deion Branch deal, the pick didn't come until this year so it didn't help the '06 Patriots. If NE could trade him before the draft whatever player they select will impact this year.

I also don't understand playing Asante at nickle CB just to lower his totals, and '08 market value. NE's going to pay Asante Samuel 7.79M and play him at nickle CB? Does that sound like getting the best value out of your investment? This would also make placing the tag on Samuel in '08 somewhat laughable, and he wouldn't have any trade value. Basically what you're advocating is paying Samuel 7.79M this year (no matter how many games he plays) to play nickle CB, then in '08 he won't have the same market value so you will have shown him, and all others how the big boys play. That's a bad idea.

First, Samuel wouldn't resign after this season if NE treated him like crap, and since you will have decreased his market value you wouldn't be able to use the tag and trade method to garner anything of substance.

This means we'd be paying him 7.79M this year (to play nickle CB) then getting nothing when he leaves in '08, and FA's who thought about signing with NE will think twice. Why would those free agents think twice, you ask? Would you want to sign with a team who played their best CB at nickle just to prove something, and harm his market potential? Samuel would probaby start complaining about it, as well. We already know he complained about BB putting Hobbs on Lee Evens. That's not really the type of distraction I want on a championship hopeful team.

Playing Asante at nickleback is not for punishment

It is the third option,if ,after holding out,he would be out of shape.

The second option would be RCB,the position Hobbs has,as of now.

Do you think the Pats would just drop Asante back into the LCB position after holding out?
We would have moved on from this during training camp.It's not punishment,It's just common sense.

This is about timing.....DON'T TRADE Asante,SIGN HIM,......after the draft,when he will see this picture more clearly.

 

[14thDragon]

1.sign the Franchise tender by July 16,come to training camp and,most importantly....play like the elite corner he purports to be.

More likely, if he is going to sign the franchise tender would be to wait until after the first couple of preseason games. There is really no incentive for him to sign earlier then the first game of the season when he would start losing game checks. The only way to get him to camp will be to promise not to franchise him next year.

2.Sign a reasonable 3-5 contract with the Patriots,play like an elite corner and get another huge contract when he's 30-32 yrs old and the salary cap is liable to be 150M per team.

All depends on your concept of reasonable. I can certainly see him deciding he is worth more and not budging and inch on his demands. While I doubt he will forgo 4.5 million dollars in game checks to hold out until week 10, he is not going to think his value has dropped because the draft has gone by. If the patriots draft a corner to replace him, they will not move up to where he wants and if they don't then he has them over a barrell.

Once the draft is over.....Asante will see this and all this acrimony will disappear.

We don't need any more draft choices.We have young players we need to develop...including Asante Samuel.

If you figure he is going to be a hassle, no reason not to get what you can for him while you can.

 

[upstater1]

I was all for selecting a CB regardless.

Put it this way: if Leon Hall drops to 24, we better take him.

 

[italia44]

More likely, if he is going to sign the franchise tender would be to wait until after the first couple of preseason games. There is really no incentive for him to sign earlier then the first game of the season when he would start losing game checks. The only way to get him to camp will be to promise not to franchise him next year.



All depends on your concept of reasonable. I can certainly see him deciding he is worth more and not budging and inch on his demands. While I doubt he will forgo 4.5 million dollars in game checks to hold out until week 10, he is not going to think his value has dropped because the draft has gone by. If the patriots draft a corner to replace him, they will not move up to where he wants and if they don't then he has them over a barrell.



If you figure he is going to be a hassle, no reason not to get what you can for him while you can.

Wow....my fingers are cramping....gonna let someone else handle this melange of brain cramps.

 

[BlitzFritz]

I dont think this is desperation, it is calculation.

He tells the whole league that he is IN PLAY now before the draft. It helps smoke out anyone who might not have been dreaming about snagging him.

Makes sense. If no one offers enough to BB, then he has to rethink his options.

so maybe youre right, its desperation and calculation

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

More likely, if he is going to sign the franchise tender would be to wait until after the first couple of preseason games. There is really no incentive for him to sign earlier then the first game of the season when he would start losing game checks. The only way to get him to camp will be to promise not to franchise him next year.



All depends on your concept of reasonable. I can certainly see him deciding he is worth more and not budging and inch on his demands. While I doubt he will forgo 4.5 million dollars in game checks to hold out until week 10, he is not going to think his value has dropped because the draft has gone by. If the patriots draft a corner to replace him, they will not move up to where he wants and if they don't then he has them over a barrell.



If you figure he is going to be a hassle, no reason not to get what you can for him while you can.

You think he'll have them over a barrel in that scenario? Why would you think that?

One of two things are going to happen - either he is going to play for them, or not. There is nothing else.

If he holds out, and then comes back in week 10, he's cost himself a ton of money. Once he hits the field, he won't be in week 10 game shape, so his performance will most likely suffer, no matter where they put him.

As a result, his value for '08 will take a serious hit. One, he won't be viewed as the "elite" corner he sees himself as, and he hopes others will see him. Two, he'll be viewed by most front offices as a malcontent, a possible cancer, which contending teams aren't really in to. Sure, you can name the big name exception to that, but how long does that last?

Alternatively, if he waits till the start of the regular season to sign the tender, he will doubtless be PUPed (without signing the tender, he won't be in camp and in exhibition games), which means he won't be back till week six at the earliest. Figure for a game or two his minutes are down as he works himself into shape. Figure also that whoever they draft/sign to replace him will be seeing the bulk of minutes, as BB works to integrate the new guy into a cohesive whole.

In any event, Samuel won't have the stats or the wherewithal to claim "elite" status next off season. That's gonna cost him, too. So given your scenario I don't see how he "has them over a barrel".

Almost certainly, the Pats are going to invest in at least one corner in the draft. For '08, they'll doubtless scour both free agency and the waiver wire, as well as look at possible trades (they do happen occasionally, you know). In any event, if the above scenario plays out this season, the Pats will simply choose to let him go, and cut their losses. Zero impact, cap-wise.

Just like in poker, the key to success is knowing when to hold 'em, and knowing when to fold 'em. They let Samuel go "for nothing", but sometimes that is the proper price to pay, and I think the Pats would do that without batting an eye.

 

[italia44]

You think he'll have them over a barrel in that scenario? Why would you think that?

One of two things are going to happen - either he is going to play for them, or not. There is nothing else.

If he holds out, and then comes back in week 10, he's cost himself a ton of money. Once he hits the field, he won't be in week 10 game shape, so his performance will most likely suffer, no matter where they put him.

As a result, his value for '08 will take a serious hit. One, he won't be viewed as the "elite" corner he sees himself as, and he hopes others will see him. Two, he'll be viewed by most front offices as a malcontent, a possible cancer, which contending teams aren't really in to. Sure, you can name the big name exception to that, but how long does that last?

Alternatively, if he waits till the start of the regular season to sign the tender, he will doubtless be PUPed (without signing the tender, he won't be in camp and in exhibition games), which means he won't be back till week six at the earliest. Figure for a game or two his minutes are down as he works himself into shape. Figure also that whoever they draft/sign to replace him will be seeing the bulk of minutes, as BB works to integrate the new guy into a cohesive whole.

In any event, Samuel won't have the stats or the wherewithal to claim "elite" status next off season. That's gonna cost him, too. So given your scenario I don't see how he "has them over a barrel".

Almost certainly, the Pats are going to invest in at least one corner in the draft. For '08, they'll doubtless scour both free agency and the waiver wire, as well as look at possible trades (they do happen occasionally, you know). In any event, if the above scenario plays out this season, the Pats will simply choose to let him go, and cut their losses. Zero impact, cap-wise.

Just like in poker, the key to success is knowing when to hold 'em, and knowing when to fold 'em. They let Samuel go "for nothing", but sometimes that is the proper price to pay, and I think the Pats would do that without batting an eye.

Thanks!......well said(i was running out of spit to reply)

 

[14thDragon]

You think he'll have them over a barrel in that scenario? Why would you think that?

Alternatively, if he waits till the start of the regular season to sign the tender, he will doubtless be PUPed (without signing the tender, he won't be in camp and in exhibition games), which means he won't be back till week six at the earliest. Figure for a game or two his minutes are down as he works himself into shape. Figure also that whoever they draft/sign to replace him will be seeing the bulk of minutes, as BB works to integrate the new guy into a cohesive whole.

As I said, I seriously doubt he would hold out to week 10, but he would certainly hold out to opening day. And they can't put him on the PUP for failure to show up. And why would they hurt thier chances in the first 6 weeks just to spite Samuel? That makes no sense what-so-ever. If he comes back on opening day then he will play. Once he signs that sheet, you are paying him the money, so you better damn play him. He will certainly be in game shape, given it is his tecket to get paid. But if you want to get the most out of him you need him in camp. If you do not have someone to fill that viod then you are going to have to make a deal with Samuel, my prediction being an agreement not to franchise him next year.

Almost certainly, the Pats are going to invest in at least one corner in the draft. For '08, they'll doubtless scour both free agency and the waiver wire, as well as look at possible trades (they do happen occasionally, you know). In any event, if the above scenario plays out this season, the Pats will simply choose to let him go, and cut their losses. Zero impact, cap-wise.

If they draft a corner to eventually step into the role then will not need to lock up Samuel long term and will just do what it takes to get him into camp. But that would also mean that a high enough offer would make trading Samuel now and getting value for him also a good bet.

Doing that before the draft would get you the best value for this season, if you intend to deal him this year. If you deal him after the draft, you are taking a shot on where the other team might end up. If you intend to keep Samuel, you better get the deal, in principle, done before the draft so you know what your real needs are. If you wait until after, then you are relying only on what is left in the free agent market and what you have to trade for and lose value next year.