How 2008 influences 2007 drafting

[ctpatsfan77]

Schedule factors, etc., don't really factor in much, I would think. However, there are two players who, I think, WILL have an impact on how Belioli draft this year:

* QB Matt Cassel. At the moment, he's the only QB behind Brady, so I find it highly unlikely the Pats will trade him this season, unless they get an absurdly good offer (e.g., the Raiders offering a 2007 3rd and a 2008 1st). That said, though, he will almost certainly be trade bait next year, his contract year.

* DL Mike Wright. Wright will be the Pats' lone RFA next year. As such, they can either extend him (as they did with Billy Yates), or give him an RFA tender. If they don't put the 1st-and-3rd tender on him, I can see a number of teams being interested in him. (They will not tender him at the lowest level, as they would lose him and get nothing in return.) So, in other words, it's a win-win-win situation: either the Pats keep Wright and solidify the DL, or the Pats get an extra year to negotiate with Wright on a long-term deal, or Wright gets a big pay day and the Pats get first-day picks from a UDFA.

While my crystal ball is rather hazy, I think the odds are extremely likely that the Pats will have at least one, if not two, extra day one picks in 2008 as things stand now--and I suspect that, to a small extent, will play a role in how Belioli use their 10 picks this year. At the very least, I don't expect them to trade out of day one altogether, but I could see them, for example, flipping one of their 6s for a 5th next year.

Thoughts?

 

[Seymour93]

How does Cassel warrant a 3rd round pick, let alone a 1st? He's hardly played and the times he has he hasn't exactly lit up the field. I know you're doing a what if here, but I think we get a lone 6th rounder for him, max.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

How does Cassel warrant a 3rd round pick, let alone a 1st? He's hardly played and the times he has he hasn't exactly lit up the field. I know you're doing a what if here, but I think we get a lone 6th rounder for him, max.

Atlanta got 2 seconds and moved up two spots in 2007 for Matt Schaub. Somehow, I think Cassel could fetch at least a third (especially if the Raiders actually take Calvin Johnson instead of a QB).

 

[patchick]

I like the creative thinking! The trick is that you have to project not only what the Pats will do but what other teams will do, and to some extent how this season goes. Will Cassel actually take the field this season, and how will he do? (Matt Schaub would be a nobody if Vick had stayed healthy.) If the Pats draft a QB in 2007 will he be ready to take the #2 job in 2008, or will the team opt for an extra year of Cassel regardless of offers? Etc.

 

[Seymour93]

Atlanta got 2 seconds and moved up two spots in 2007 for Matt Schaub. Somehow, I think Cassel could fetch at least a third (especially if the Raiders actually take Calvin Johnson instead of a QB).

Schaub has played more than a few garbage time snaps in the regular season. He also started a game against us where he looked like Carson Palmer. Cassel has played in the preseason and that's about it. Ask yourself would you give up a 3rd rounder for Cassel and would you feel confident in giving him the starting position?

 

[patchick]

Atlanta got 2 seconds and moved up two spots in 2007 for Matt Schaub. Somehow, I think Cassel could fetch at least a third (especially if the Raiders actually take Calvin Johnson instead of a QB).

Schaub was this year's Scott Mitchell Award Winner for a backup who looked good in a fill-in role and reaped the benefits. Cassel hasn't had the opportunity to show that yet, thank goodness. But IF he had to make a couple of starts and IF he looked impressive, then it's a fair bet that the rest of the league would suddenly notice his prototype QB frame, strong, accurate arm and excellent athleticism. But that's two big IFs away.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Add me to the list of those who think Cassel will have few suitors unless he gets a couple starts and plays well. Let's hope he never starts.

Wright is a factor if you're looking at long term draft strategy. If they can land Carriker in this draft, I can see Wright carrying a 2nd round tender to tempt other clubs. That assumes the wild fantasy I keep having of Wright at ILB never comes to pass!

 

[Remix 6]

wasnt Schaub a 2nd rounder? He did well in some games too

i think Houston got ripped off..no way is Schaub worth that much . His stats arent even that good to begin with

Cassell will never be a worth higher than a 4-5th depending on how much he plays

 

[mgteich]

We can tender Wright at $1.8M for next year; there is no real issue here.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We can tender Wright at $1.8M for next year; there is no real issue here.

I assume you mean $2M for a first-rounder. In any case, the Pats are not required to tender him (they could sign him long-term, as they did with Billy Yates), but what the Pats will do here is, if not an "issue", certainly a question worth some thought. (Hmm, a 26-year-old who probably would start here if it weren't for the three first-rounders in front of him. I can't imagine any team being interested. )

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

wasnt Schaub a 2nd rounder? He did well in some games too

i think Houston got ripped off..no way is Schaub worth that much . His stats arent even that good to begin with

Cassell will never be a worth higher than a 4-5th depending on how much he plays

IIRC, Schaub was drafted in the 3rd round out of Virginia.

 

[spacecrime]

* QB Matt Cassel. At the moment, he's the only QB behind Brady, so I find it highly unlikely the Pats will trade him this season, unless they get an absurdly good offer (e.g., the Raiders offering a 2007 3rd and a 2008 1st). That said, though, he will almost certainly be trade bait next year, his contract year.

Where does the almost certainly come from? Not only is it not "almost certainly" but in my opinion highly unlikely.

If we feel good about Cassel as a backup, why would be trade him? In hopes of getting someone as good? If we didn't think he was good enough, we would have tried to replace him already. Why wouldn't we keep him another year then try to resign him?

Lots of backups have been kept around by the Pats. In fact, very few are traded after three years, Dante's Scarnecchia's oline factory being the main exception.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Where does the almost certainly come from? Not only is it not "almost certainly" but in my opinion highly unlikely.

If we feel good about Cassel as a backup, why would be trade him? In hopes of getting someone as good? If we didn't think he was good enough, we would have tried to replace him already. Why wouldn't we keep him another year then try to resign him?

Lots of backups have been kept around by the Pats. In fact, very few are traded after three years, Dante's Scarnecchia's oline factory being the main exception.

You raise a good point. The issue is not that BB doesn't want to keep Cassel as a backup; I'm sure he does. The question is . . . does Cassel want to spend that much of his career as just a backup, and does BB think that's what's best for Cassel?

If Cassel hopes to be a starter--or, similarly, if BB thinks Cassel probably should be a starter--then everything I've said is correct, because it's unlikely he will ever become "the" guy here. If, OTOH, Cassel has decided that being a backup is what he wants to do, then you are absolutely correct.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, I would tender him at $2M.

I just meant that we are not in any danger of losing Wright until after the 2008 season. It is certainly worth discussing whether we expect him to be here long-term. Personally, I am in favor of signing him to a long-term contract now. I would think he would be likely to do so now than next year.

I assume you mean $2M for a first-rounder. In any case, the Pats are not required to tender him (they could sign him long-term, as they did with Billy Yates), but what the Pats will do here is, if not an "issue", certainly a question worth some thought. (Hmm, a 26-year-old who probably would start here if it weren't for the three first-rounders in front of him. I can't imagine any team being interested. )