Trading down: what's in it for the other guy?

[patchick]

So the Pats are on the clock at #24 or #28, aren't thrilled with their options, and are entertaining trade offers. Who is likely to be on the board at that point who would trigger a deal? The player should be:

- Significantly more valuable to another team than to the Patriots
- A significant step above the next couple of players at the position

The first name that leaps to mind is TE Greg Olsen if he's there. It's a weak year for TE's, and if you have a hole at the position he's your man. For extra incentive at #24, the Jets could easily take him with the next pick. (Top trading partner prospects: Carolina, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Miami)

Next up, QB. If you rate a guy like Stanton or Edwards as a strong third to Russell and Quinn, you have to be nervous heading into the top of the second round. As many as 6 of the first 10 teams could use a QB, and only 2 of them will have filled the need with their first pick. What's more, that cheap 5th year on the rookie contract looks especially attractive on a QB, making #28 a reasonable spot to "reach" for a playcaller. (Minnesota, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami)

And how about LT? If you're sore at missing Joe Thomas, you'd have to be awfully tempted if Joe Staley is still around late in the first. The Pats can legitimately threaten to take him themselves unless an offer looks sweet. (Arizona, Houston, Oakland, Baltimore and, as usual, Miami)

Finally DT. There are just too many teams in dire need of a tackle, and too few premium players. A guy like Justin Harrell could be the beneficiary. (Washington, San Francisco, Kansas City, Denver, NY Giants, Green Bay, Dallas, Houston. Whew!)

Thoughts?

 

[BelichickFan]

On Staley I would probably take him and keep him.

Edwards is interesting. On a Browns board, there was a post from a guy who talked to an NFC team GM who said his team, though not interested in a QB, had Edwards as the top rated QB in the draft. We can only hope he becomes this year's Kyle Boller or JP Losman.

 

[c_nice_37]

I'd also throw in CB. If Revis is there, and for some reason we don't want him, someone will.

 

[italia44]

So the Pats are on the clock at #24 or #28, aren't thrilled with their options, and are entertaining trade offers. Who is likely to be on the board at that point who would trigger a deal? The player should be:

- Significantly more valuable to another team than to the Patriots
- A significant step above the next couple of players at the position

The first name that leaps to mind is TE Greg Olsen if he's there. It's a weak year for TE's, and if you have a hole at the position he's your man. For extra incentive at #24, the Jets could easily take him with the next pick. (Top trading partner prospects: Carolina, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Miami)

Next up, QB. If you rate a guy like Stanton or Edwards as a strong third to Russell and Quinn, you have to be nervous heading into the top of the second round. As many as 6 of the first 10 teams could use a QB, and only 2 of them will have filled the need with their first pick. What's more, that cheap 5th year on the rookie contract looks especially attractive on a QB, making #28 a reasonable spot to "reach" for a playcaller. (Minnesota, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami)

And how about LT? If you're sore at missing Joe Thomas, you'd have to be awfully tempted if Joe Staley is still around late in the first. The Pats can legitimately threaten to take him themselves unless an offer looks sweet. (Arizona, Houston, Oakland, Baltimore and, as usual, Miami)

Finally DT. There are just too many teams in dire need of a tackle, and too few premium players. A guy like Justin Harrell could be the beneficiary. (Washington, San Francisco, Kansas City, Denver, NY Giants, Green Bay, Dallas, Houston. Whew!)

Thoughts?

This is a very interesting question and well-written
by patchik.

IMHO,it is the WR and TE prospects who are most likely to drop in the first round.

Also,as mentioned by patchik,the one-year longer
contract option is really going to come into play at the end of the first round.

This contract-length differential hasn't gotten much talk,however,I believe it is a significant thing
among the GM's around the league.

I would dump the #28 pick,in a heartbeat,if the Pats could get something in the 2008 draft.

I think BB/SP feel the same way and I would look
for Wash.or TB to be potential trade partners.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

DE would be a consideration for teams looking for those explosive first step guys like Spencer and Moss. (Detroit, Tennessee, Washington (2008 pick), Denver, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, NY Jets are all reported visiting with DEs http://www.newerascouting.com/index.php?c=33&a=103)

RB if Lynch were to drop, though it's hard to see him getting by Shanahan.

I'd think DT is less of a concern, if you want penetrators take big DEs (McBride, McDonald, Johson, Alama-Francis, Crowder, Abiamiri), run stuffers are easy to find in later rounds.

 

[sebman2112]

See, this is also what I've been thinking about. We've been talking about how the back end of the first round isn't as good this year, and a lot of players of simular talent should be available early-mid second, so it would be smart to trade down. Thing is, if the back end of the first round isn't much better than the early-mid second why would they want to trade up? It's a pretty interesting question and one I've asked myself a lot when saying NE should trade down. The back end first rounders being allowed to sign 5 year deals instead of the four year deals second rounders are limited to might help this, though.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

See, this is also what I've been thinking about. We've been talking about how the back end of the first round isn't as good this year, and a lot of players of simular talent should be available early-mid second, so it would be smart to trade down. Thing is, if the back end of the first round isn't much better than the early-mid second why would they want to trade up? It's a pretty interesting question and one I've asked myself a lot when saying NE should trade down.

Scheme/win now is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[PATSNUTme]

If we don't trade up to get Willis:rocker: , there will probably be a player of interest for another team sitting there at 24 or 28.

I guess the question will be is the player good enough and the need strong enough to give up what we are asking. The Buc's have 2 second rounders. Will they be willing to part with one this year and a 2nd or 3rd next year?

The Falcons have 2 second rounders and 3 4th rounders. so there are possible trading partners out here.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/nickelpackage/draftorder.shtml

 

[SamBamsFan]

If we don't trade up to get Willis:rocker: , there will probably be a player of interest for another team sitting there at 24 or 28.

I guess the question will be is the player good enough and the need strong enough to give up what we are asking. The Buc's have 2 second rounders. Will they be willing to part with one this year and a 2nd or 3rd next year?

The Falcons have 2 second rounders and 3 4th rounders. so there are possible trading partners out here.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/nickelpackage/draftorder.shtml

Since I am the honorary GM of the Falcons in our draft game, I guess it would be my duty to report that they also have two 2nd round picks in '08 as a result of the Schaub trade. Historically McKay wasn't an active player re: draft day trades, but he has made two in each of the last two years...

 

[dryheat44]

So the Pats are on the clock at #24 or #28, aren't thrilled with their options, and are entertaining trade offers. Who is likely to be on the board at that point who would trigger a deal? The player should be:

- Significantly more valuable to another team than to the Patriots
- A significant step above the next couple of players at the position

The first name that leaps to mind is TE Greg Olsen if he's there. It's a weak year for TE's, and if you have a hole at the position he's your man. For extra incentive at #24, the Jets could easily take him with the next pick. (Top trading partner prospects: Carolina, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Miami)

Next up, QB. If you rate a guy like Stanton or Edwards as a strong third to Russell and Quinn, you have to be nervous heading into the top of the second round. As many as 6 of the first 10 teams could use a QB, and only 2 of them will have filled the need with their first pick. What's more, that cheap 5th year on the rookie contract looks especially attractive on a QB, making #28 a reasonable spot to "reach" for a playcaller. (Minnesota, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami)

And how about LT? If you're sore at missing Joe Thomas, you'd have to be awfully tempted if Joe Staley is still around late in the first. The Pats can legitimately threaten to take him themselves unless an offer looks sweet. (Arizona, Houston, Oakland, Baltimore and, as usual, Miami)

Finally DT. There are just too many teams in dire need of a tackle, and too few premium players. A guy like Justin Harrell could be the beneficiary. (Washington, San Francisco, Kansas City, Denver, NY Giants, Green Bay, Dallas, Houston. Whew!)

Thoughts?

Great question, and I agree with all of your possibilities. Allow me to add Marshawn Lynch. If Green Bay passes him up, and with all their needs, they might (Notice how the decline of Bubba Franks is killing Farve?). In which case Lynch could easily slip to 24. Then it's on.

 

[Seneschal2]

So the Pats are on the clock at #24 or #28, aren't thrilled with their options, and are entertaining trade offers. Who is likely to be on the board at that point who would trigger a deal? The player should be:

- Significantly more valuable to another team than to the Patriots
- A significant step above the next couple of players at the position

Sure, that's how it's done -- which is why you posted it.

The first name that leaps to mind is TE Greg Olsen if he's there. It's a weak year for TE's, and if you have a hole at the position he's your man.

May I suggest you pm Box a copy of this post, but whatever you do -- don't mention "we". :bricks:

Thoughts?

Yes. As the board unfolds, we'll have a clearer picture as to who represents an enticing target for others. The player really could come from any position, when you consider that teams not only scout the prospects, but become enamoured by them. And of course, the moveup occurs because that team isn't willing to risk losing that player. Having two firsts always represents more than face value.

Good post.

 

[ayjackson]

Well bad teams usually have bad Olines. So teams picking at the beginning of the second round might look to one of the Pats' picks to acquire a Staley, Blalock, Grubbs or Kalil.