How much faith do you have in BB being able to pick the right DB in R1?

[tombonneau]

I think most of us would agree that there is at least a 90% chance that Pats are going DB with one of their R1 picks.

I'm not much of a draftnik, so I don't really have my favorite S or CB and will be thrilled with whoever they pick.

And that's because, basically, when it comes to Day 1 DBs and the draft, BB/Pioli are pretty much spot on.

Really, off the top of my head, the only guy that didn't pan out was Brock Williams (3rd round?), and that was because of injuries.

Other than that, they seem to have done real well with Wilson, Sanders, Hobbs, Asante.

This indicates to me that scouting DBs is BB/Pioli's strength, so just remember, whoever they decides is the DB of the Future in Round 1, put your own personal bias aside and just know that in all likelihood he is going to be a player.

Edit: I thought Draft Forum was for talking about specific players, draft trades, etc, and that overall draft talk was main board stuff? I mean honestly, the draft is less than a month away? What are we supposed to be talking about on the main board?

 

[biffman]

Edit: I thought Draft Forum was for talking about specific players, draft trades, etc, and that overall draft talk was main board stuff? I mean honestly, the draft is less than a month away? What are we supposed to be talking about on the main board?

I agree. I'd love to have these discussions on the main board, especially since I don't visit the draft forum all that often. In any event, this thread is more about BB's track record than about specific players/draftees.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I thought Asante was a 4th round pick. If BB can strike gold on second day, why not the first?

Yup he was a 4th rounder.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asante_Samuel

Not really concerned on if Piolichick can draft good guys. They have been consistently good over the years.
Just wondering if they will throw us a curveball in the draft.

 

[drpatriot]

when it comes to Day 1 DBs and the draft, BB/Pioli are pretty much spot on.

Really, off the top of my head, the only guy that didn't pan out was Brock Williams (3rd round?), and that was because of injuries.

Earlier on in the draft, they have messed up on Dexter Reid and Guss Scott along with Brock Williams.

Antwan Harris, Leonard Myers, and Christina Morton never panned out either.

Overall, they've had a 4 for 10 record, with Willie Andrews still up in the air. In Day 1, they've been 2 for 4 and before the 6th round they've been 4 for 7. So I see them having about a 50% chance of picking someone worthwhile early.

They are by no means "spot on."

 

[biffman]

Earlier on in the draft, they have messed up on Dexter Reid and Guss Scott along with Brock Williams.

Antwan Harris, Leonard Myers, and Christina Morton never panned out either.

Overall, they've had a 4 for 10 record, with Willie Andrews still up in the air. In Day 1, they've been 2 for 4 and before the 6th round they've been 4 for 7. So I see them having about a 50% chance of picking someone worthwhile early.

They are by no means "spot on."

While I agree that they are not "spot on," I think you're being a little overly critical here.

Dexter Reid was taken in the middle of the 4th round. I wouldn't call that "earlier in the draft."

Gus Scott was hurt, IIRC. While it goes down as a "miss," I don't know if that's an entirely fair tag.

Harris was taken near the end of the sixth round. How many of those players pan out? Ditto for Myers. Morton is still in the league as a ST player. He was picked in the 7th round. Do you really expect a starting CB when picking in the 200s?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Don't you know? BB really whiffed when he didn't pick that kid from Hofstra!

 

[spacecrime]

I agree. I'd love to have these discussions on the main board

No way. This is a great way to be able to see draft articles for those of us who obscess about the draft. Kudos the the moderators. Patsfans is much organized this year than last.

especially since I don't visit the draft forum all that often.

Come on over any time you wanrt to read about the latest draft stuff. It only takes a click of the mouse. Not too hard at all.

 

[biffman]

No way. This is a great way to be able to see draft articles for those of us who obscess about the draft. Kudos the the moderators. Patsfans is much organized this year than last.

Come on over any time you wanrt to read about the latest draft stuff. It only takes a click of the mouse. Not too hard at all.

Fair enough. To each his own.

 

[Fencer]

They've done a great job on CBs. Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, and Wilson add up to an outstanding track record. Plus they had one injury bust.

Safeties have been kind of blech in the mid rounds. I'd like them to take a high-round shot at safety.

Basically, I trust them on ANY first-round pick. They may not make the best choice, but they consistently make good ones. Every first-round pick they've made except the TEs gets legitimate mention as a "near Pro-Bowler" (or much better in Seymour's case), and I believe those were successful picks as well.

 

[drpatriot]

While I agree that they are not "spot on," I think you're being a little overly critical here.

Dexter Reid was taken in the middle of the 4th round. I wouldn't call that "earlier in the draft."

I guess we define that differently. He wasn't counted in my Day 1 chances because he wasn't Day 1. It's just semantics.

Gus Scott was hurt, IIRC. While it goes down as a "miss," I don't know if that's an entirely fair tag.

Is Andy Katzenmoyer not a bust because he got injured? I realize Guss was a 3rd rounder, not a 1st, but injury busts are still busts.

Harris was taken near the end of the sixth round. How many of those players pan out? Ditto for Myers. Morton is still in the league as a ST player. He was picked in the 7th round. Do you really expect a starting CB when picking in the 200s?

I agree with you. However, that doesn't make them any more successful than Brock Williams, Dexter Reid or Guss Scott. If you don't think it's realistic, don't look at the overall draft results, only look at the Day 1 results.

 

[Patriot Missile]

It's not a matter of faith,it's a matter of trust. If we go back over NE's 1st round track record, you will find Pioli and BB are pretty accurate at getting players that produce.

To my knowledge the Pat's haven't drafted a CB in the first round since the Bioli regime has been around. It is completely unfair to base possible failure of picking a CB in the 1st rd due to failures from 3rd to 6th round picks in previous years.

Some may consider someone like Dexter Reid a bust but in reality he contributed to a NFL franchise. Of course not like Harrison or Milloy,Law etc but enough to put his name out there that he is par to somewhat ok sub. Many 3rd, 4th, 5th round players never see the field in their entire careers for other teams. I would venture to say over the last 5yrs more than 1/2 of the cbs drafted regardless of round contributed to winning games for this team in some type of way whether it be nickel,dime or special teams etc.

I trust in the front office to choose us a capable CB to compliment this team if they choose to go that route in the first round this draft. You can bank on it.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Need to get my post number to 667 in a hurry. Bad karma and all.

 

[rookBoston]

To start, I disagree with the criticisms of the Harris and Myers picks as duds. Those guys each gave us a number of years of successful service in SB years-- very analogous to Tully Banta-Cain type of service, who was also a late round pick. I dont think anyone considers TBC as a wasted pick.

I also disagree, strongly, that the Pats are 90% likely to draft a DB in the first round. I think the likelihood is closer to 30%, and that's including both picks.

I was convinced that 2006 was the year of the LB, after losing McGinest. And 2005 was the year of the CB, after losing Ty. Not so.

Partly, I think the general public doesn't think as highly of our starting secondary as the staff does. Hobbs, Sanders, Wilson and Samuel are a young nucleus which will be in place in 2007. Add Harrison, Gay, Scott, Hawkins... and it's a very deep and servicable group. Just because they aren't household names doesn't mean they aren't players. As recently as last offseason, posters on this board were looking to bring Ty Law back so Asante could go back to his "natural position" as the nickleback. Now, suddenly, he's one of the elite CBs in the NFL, and someone we cant do without.

Personally, I think a fair probablistic breakdown for likelihood is something more like:

RB - 10%
TE - 10%
WR - 5%
OL - 5%
DL - 10%
LB - 30%
DB - 30%
QB, K, P - <1%

Offense is a real possibility. Losing Graham leaves a spot, KBrady notwithstanding. Losing Dillon leaves a need, Moris notwithstanding. None of the WR signings other than Welker are truly long term solutions. If good value at any of those positions presents itself (e.g Lynch, Meachum), BB wont hesitate to pull the trigger. The roster still doesn't have solid depth at NT. And the idea of losing Warren to UFA in a few years has to be daunting-- someone like Okoye might seem like a worthy investment.

BB/SP will not force themselves to pick a CB or pick a S in the first round. I think a class headlined by...

24 - RB Lynch, WR Rice, WR Meachem, OLB Moss, OLB Spencer
28 - TE Olsen, LB Posluszny, RB Leonard, OT Staley, LB Beason

... should not be all that surprising.

 

[Fencer]

rookBoston,

For at least two reasons, you IMO should rethink that post.

First, your probabilities should add up closer to 200% than to 100%.

Second, you comment on the WRs not being long-term solutions while ignoring how many of the DBs will be UFAs in the near future.

 

[biffman]

Is Andy Katzenmoyer not a bust because he got injured? I realize Guss was a 3rd rounder, not a 1st, but injury busts are still busts.

But Katzenmoyer was not a bad pick. Him being a "bust" should not reflect poorly on Grier. The best players in the world can and do get hurt; sometimes permanently. That doesn't mean they were bad picks at the time. That's all I'm saying in Scott's case. I trust BB and Pioli's ability to pick good players, not the ability to see into the future and know that those players won't get hurt.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I trust BB and SP to pick players than ANYBODY on the is Board.

Period.

I also find it somewhat offensive and definitely Presumptuous, for any one here to question that based on past record. OTOH, There are plenty of posters here who could out do Bobby Grier though.