From Vic's pen to God's ears.....

[FreeTedWilliams]

His latest mock:

http://www.nflplayers.com/players/player.aspx?id=22529

I highly doubt this will happen, but it would be great if it did.

24. New England: Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
Willis shows excellent instincts and is a superb tackler, qualities that would seem to make him right at home in a complex scheme that needs some youth and depth at inside linebacker.



28. **New England: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Nelson, who has good speed and athleticism, fills an obvious need for the Patriots. With some added bulk and strength, he could be an exceptional player for many years to come.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Kiper has both going to the Patriots too.

But, I think we will have to trade up to get Willis.

 

[cstjohn17]

It will be interesting to see if Willis falls whether the Patriots are interested. I don't think he gets past the Giants but if he is there at 24 and the Patriots don't take him, it adds some additional drama to the process.

 

[PATSNUTme]

It will be interesting to see if Willis falls whether the Patriots are interested. I don't think he gets past the Giants but if he is there at 24 and the Patriots don't take him, it adds some additional drama to the process.

Actually, with the Bills losing Fletcher-Baker and now hearing Spikes is on the way out, I think they are the ones targeting Willis. We will have to talk nice to the 49ers to get ahead of the Bills.

 

[BelichickFan]

But, I think we will have to trade up to get Willis.

And what do you think the odds of that are ? I think it's 50-50 at best that we draft Willis at #24, let alone trading up for him. We all know the situation with drafting LB here; the chance that we'll go from not drafting one higher than Round 5 to using more than a first rounder is unreasonable.

 

[cstjohn17]

Actually, with the Bills losing Fletcher-Baker and now hearing Spikes is on the way out, I think they are the ones targeting Willis. We will have to talk nice to the 49ers to get ahead of the Bills.

If he drops to 20 then I am a little bit interested in trading up for him, moving up to 11 or 12 doesn't make sense.

He is a good (not great) LB with some serious size limitations (237 at his pro day). IMO he is not as good fit for the Patriots as Carpenter was last year and he was picked at 18.

 

[14thDragon]

Actually, with the Bills losing Fletcher-Baker and now hearing Spikes is on the way out, I think they are the ones targeting Willis. We will have to talk nice to the 49ers to get ahead of the Bills.

I figure that is the likely spot. Unless somehow Peterson falls like mana from the heavens to them. I figure it was a lot like last year hoping the Wimbley was going to fall to 21, never had a chance.

The question is, once Willis comes off the board, does that create a domino effect knocking more LBs off the board in a hurry. Thus negating the possiblities of Beason, Posluzny, or Timmons at 24 or 28.

And what do you think the odds of that are ? I think it's 50-50 at best that we draft Willis at #24, let alone trading up for him. We all know the situation with drafting LB here; the chance that we'll go from not drafting one higher than Round 5 to using more than a first rounder is unreasonable.

Well, based on past drafts, they should not have valued a guard or a running back high enough to pick in the first round either. So unless you are trying to say it is going to be DL or TE, history is not a great guide here. (I could live with another DL, but so help me if it is another TE....) If the value of Willis is deemed to be higher then that of guys they would expect to be there at 24 and 28, then go ahead and make the deal. I could certainly see such a case being made.

 

[BelichickFan]

Well, based on past drafts, they should not have valued a guard or a running back high enough to pick in the first round either. So unless you are trying to say it is going to be DL or TE, history is not a great guide here.

I've heard that argument before but I don't buy it.

RB ? That's completely different as we have one starting RB. That's ONE. 4.5% of the starting lineup. We have 4 starting LB, 18% of the starting lineup. So if picks were made regardless of position we would draft a starting LB 4 times as often as a starting RB.

Guard ? There's a little stronger argument there but if you look at Belichick's drafts in NE they're dotted with more OL than LB. OL . . . even before the 1 and 3 in 2005 we used a #2 and a #4 in 2001. Sure, it's not a lot and they were both OT not OG. Still, that's two OL in the first four rounds. How many LB ? Zero. Not just zero in the first 4 rounds but Belichick has only ever drafted ONE LB, Ryan Claridge. Count the conversion project Mincey if you like but only one college LB has ever been drafted here by Belichick.

Deby it all you want but the RB argument is weak and the Guard argument, while stronger, is still weak compared to the LB.

 

[sebman2112]

If he drops to 20 then I am a little bit interested in trading up for him, moving up to 11 or 12 doesn't make sense.

He is a good (not great) LB with some serious size limitations (237 at his pro day). IMO he is not as good fit for the Patriots as Carpenter was last year and he was picked at 18.

Here we go again. He has serious size limitations? So, a LB who came in at 242lbs at the combine has serious size limitations? You realize he has the frame to add another 10-15lbs right? Also, you realize most ILB's aren't really any bigger than 240-255lbs? It's usually OLB's who are 6'4"-6'6" and weigh 260-270lbs, not ILB's. Also, Bruschi is 6'1", and weighs 247lbs, has shorter arms, and is a lot slower than Willis, so I can't see your believing Willis is to small.

I mean really people since when is a fast 6'1 1/2" 242lbs LB with long arms to small? The guys about the same size as Harris, but he has longer arms, and is faster, yet I don't see people talking about Harris being to small.

Oh, and Carpenter was an OLB

 

[14thDragon]

I've heard that argument before but I don't buy it.

RB ? That's completely different as we have one starting RB. That's ONE. 4.5% of the starting lineup. We have 4 starting LB, 18% of the starting lineup. So if picks were made regardless of position we would draft a starting LB 4 times as often as a starting RB.

Guard ? There's a little stronger argument there but if you look at Belichick's drafts in NE they're dotted with more OL than LB. OL . . . even before the 1 and 3 in 2005 we used a #2 and a #4 in 2001. Sure, it's not a lot and they were both OT not OG. Still, that's two OL in the first four rounds. How many LB ? Zero. Not just zero in the first 4 rounds but Belichick has only ever drafted ONE LB, Ryan Claridge. Count the conversion project Mincey if you like but only one college LB has ever been drafted here by Belichick.

Deby it all you want but the RB argument is weak and the Guard argument, while stronger, is still weak compared to the LB.

Are you trying to say there was ample evidence that a RB or a Guard was going to be the overall first selection in the last two drafts? Based soley on previous draft history? Color me a bit skeptical. But if you look at the choices in context, it makes perfect sense. In both cases they had an aging veteran and wanted to draft the replacement.

From my POV, LB has come due for some upgrade. Perhaps I am completely wrong and the FO does not trust college LBs. Or perhaps they were simply happy with who they had. But I am not going to say they are not going to do something because they have not done it before. I do know there pattern is that if they want a guy, they will go and get him.

 

[BelichickFan]

Are you trying to say there was ample evidence that a RB or a Guard was going to be the overall first selection in the last two drafts? Based soley on previous draft history?

No I'm not. I'm saying there was more evidence that we might take an OL high in 2005 than there is that we'll take a LB high in 2007. And I didn't even mention that on draft day 2005 we'd already had Andruzzi, a starting OL, move on whereas this year we've lost no starters except the one who's been upgraded.

 

[BelichickFan]

One more thing. The Mankins pick was the 32nd of the first round. Willis would be 24 or higher. First round does not equal first round. Not only are we less likely to use a #1 on a LB in 2007 than we were to use a #1 on a OL in 2005, we would be using a 25% higher on the LB.

It could happen. But the Mankins and Maroney examples are poor reasons to say not to look at history.

 

[14thDragon]

One more thing. The Mankins pick was the 32nd of the first round. Willis would be 24 or higher. First round does not equal first round. Not only are we less likely to use a #1 on a LB in 2007 than we were to use a #1 on a OL in 2005, we would be using a 25% higher on the LB.

It could happen. But the Mankins and Maroney examples are poor reasons to say not to look at history.

Then from your "historical" analysis what would be the expected direction? I would assume DB since they have picked plenty of DBs ranging from the second down to the seventh and so have shown a value on the position? I would not say that it is an unlikely possiblty. A strong case could be made for the value to be there.

On the other hand, the biggest hole is at the ILB position and it something that needs to be addressed. So far free agency, trades, and low round draft picks have failled to address this. (Beisel, Brown, Claridge, Alexander) I figure our FO guys will leave no stone unturned and this one has come due. (Simlar to I see how the RB situation went down. Low round picks, cheap free agents, trade, then finally Rd 1 pick.)

 

[cstjohn17]

Here we go again. He has serious size limitations? So, a LB who came in at 242lbs at the combine has serious size limitations? You realize he has the frame to add another 10-15lbs right? Also, you realize most ILB's aren't really any bigger than 240-255lbs? It's usually OLB's who are 6'4"-6'6" and weigh 260-270lbs, not ILB's. Also, Bruschi is 6'1", and weighs 247lbs, has shorter arms, and is a lot slower than Willis, so I can't see your believing Willis is to small.

I mean really people since when is a fast 6'1 1/2" 242lbs LB with long arms to small? The guys about the same size as Harris, but he has longer arms, and is faster, yet I don't see people talking about Harris being to small.

Oh, and Carpenter was an OLB

He was 242 at the combine and then 237 at his pro day, dropping 5 pounds improved his 40 time but indicates he will have to work hard to carry the weight. The ability to carry 10-15 pounds and actually weighing 250 pounds are entirely different things. If he actually weighed 250 then he would be an ideal fit at ILB.

If it makes you happier remove the word serious from the sentence maybe it sounds better to you, new sentence reads "he has size limitations" instead of "serious size limitations". So do almost all college LBs.

Carpenter played Stongside LB in college, his size and versatility would allow him to play inside or outside in the Pats scheme much the same way Bradley and deOssie may be able to this year.

Going back to the original point, if Willis is available at 24 it is not a slam dunk that the Patriots would draft him. I don't have anything against the guy but also don't think he is so fantastic that he is worth trading up for.

 

[BelichickFan]

Then from your "historical" analysis what would be the expected direction? I would assume DB since they have picked plenty of DBs ranging from the second down to the seventh and so have shown a value on the position? I would not say that it is an unlikely possiblty. A strong case could be made for the value to be there.

On the other hand, the biggest hole is at the ILB position and it something that needs to be addressed. So far free agency, trades, and low round draft picks have failled to address this. (Beisel, Brown, Claridge, Alexander) I figure our FO guys will leave no stone unturned and this one has come due. (Simlar to I see how the RB situation went down. Low round picks, cheap free agents, trade, then finally Rd 1 pick.)

I'm not saying I can predict what they'll do. Just that the pick of Mankins doesn't alter what history says about LB. That's it.

 

[Warren94]

I think Willis is over-rated. He is part of the ESPN Hype machine.

 

[sebman2112]

I think Willis is over-rated. He is part of the ESPN Hype machine.

And I think you're on crack

 

[Warren94]

On my corn flakes every morning.

I just think he is part of the ESPN Hype machine. He has had many injuries in college and I just don't think he is a good for us. I think Harris is a better fit. JMO.

 

[Handel]

Oh, and Carpenter was an OLB

So a ILB in 3-4.

 

[sebman2112]

So a ILB in 3-4.

Bobby Carpenter was one of my favorite players for NE last year, but he's a better OLB, sorry. Also, last time I checked he was playing OLB in the Cowboys 3-4