Stick a fork in the Yanks

[sdaniels7114]

Since everyone knows that Tavarez is Spanish for "9th inning 3-1 meatball that gets knocked into Kenmore Square," I'm sure this news will brighten just about every member of RSN's day.

 

[dalero]

That doesn't suck.

 

[Foley]

I don't understand how everyone views this as a penominal idea. A starter who can win 14-16 games with an ERA in the low 4s is more valuable than a reliever who converts a save 85% of the time.

And assuming he spends the entire year as a closer it will be about 2 and a half years since he last started a game (ST aside). Is it really a wise idea to keep him out of that role just because Pineiro blowing 10 saves would be too much to cope with? Or do they really plan on wasting a talent and keeping him a closer for the rest of his days in Boston?

 

[sdaniels7114]

Well phenomenal would be if Hansen or Lester were mowing down everyone they faced in whatever 'save' simulation the Sox could manufacture in spring and yeah, this definitely cuts into Pap's potential output for the year. Top flight starters are certainly more valuable and he's clearly got the potential to be one; but closer was the biggest hole this team had and now it appears to be filled.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I hate this move. Delaying Paplebon's transition back to starter is short-sighted and a panic move considering the other guys haven't even had a chance to fail yet.

If it is temporary and they just want to buy time to see who can earn the job then I am ok with it. If papelbon doesn't start at any point this year I'll be very disappointed.

 

[patriotspride]

I don't understand how everyone views this as a penominal idea. A starter who can win 14-16 games with an ERA in the low 4s is more valuable than a reliever who converts a save 85% of the time.

And assuming he spends the entire year as a closer it will be about 2 and a half years since he last started a game (ST aside). Is it really a wise idea to keep him out of that role just because Pineiro blowing 10 saves would be too much to cope with? Or do they really plan on wasting a talent and keeping him a closer for the rest of his days in Boston?

pineiro blowing ten saves is the difference between winning and losing the division

 

[patsfan55]

pineiro blowing ten saves is the difference between winning and losing the division

very true 10char

 

[KevinAbq]

very true 10char

Not to mention that Paps wants to close.

 

[Foley]

Well phenomenal would be if Hansen or Lester were mowing down everyone they faced in whatever 'save' simulation the Sox could manufacture in spring and yeah, this definitely cuts into Pap's potential output for the year. Top flight starters are certainly more valuable and he's clearly got the potential to be one; but closer was the biggest hole this team had and now it appears to be filled.

And by filling that hole they just made one thats a lot bigger. Do you really feel more comfortable with Julian Tavarez as a fifth starter than you would with Piniero as a closer? Unless Lester somehow manages to comprehend control than whoever they get to replace Papelbon in the rotation will be vastly inferior to him.

pineiro blowing ten saves is the difference between winning and losing the division

So Pineiro blowing 10 saves loses them the division but Papelbon blowing 6 is miles better? I can guarentee that whoever replaces Papelbon in the rotation will lose a lot more than 4 games as a starter than Papelbon would.

 

[patriotspride]

wow you guarantee it .

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

If Pineiro blows 10 versus paplebon blowing 5, but paplebon's replacement wins 7 where paps would have won 12, you're right back where you started.

The problem is that people pull out their hair over a blown lead yet don't have much difficulty accepting a 6-3 loss where the starter gives up 5 runs in 5 innings. they're both losses and count the same in the standings. this move decreases the likelihood of the former but increases the likelihood of the latter. at the same time it prevents paplebon from becoming a starter, where he would better serve the team over the course of a career.

every time he comes in with a 1 run lead in the 9th against good hitters I'll be glad he's in the pen. how often does that happen, maybe once a week? whenever he enters with a 3 run lead, or to face the 6-7-8 hitters (on a team other than the Yanks) I'll think about the fact he could be pitching more important innings as a starter.

 

[Foley]

wow you guarantee it .

Yes. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. It doesn't say a lot about your confidence in Papelbon as a starter if you think that Tavarez will only be a slight downgrade from him.

every time he comes in with a 1 run lead in the 9th against good hitters I'll be glad he's in the pen. how often does that happen, maybe once a week?

Last year he came into a 1 run lead 19 times. He successfully converted that save opportunity 13 times. So as much as everyone wants to talk about how amazing he was in close games he was only successful with a one run lead 68% of the time.

 

[sdaniels7114]

Don't forget about the side benefits that go with having a closer the team has confidence in. There's got to be a boost that you're playing an 8 inning game while the other team is playing 9. There's also the fact that it was hard enough for Tito to pry the ball out of Schilling's hand in the 7th or 8th with a reliable closer, take the closer away and add Dice K, who regularly stayed in for 150 pitches in Japan, and you can forget it.

 

[Foley]

Don't forget about the side benefits that go with having a closer the team has confidence in. There's got to be a boost that you're playing an 8 inning game while the other team is playing 9. There's also the fact that it was hard enough for Tito to pry the ball out of Schilling's hand in the 7th or 8th with a reliable closer, take the closer away and add Dice K, who regularly stayed in for 150 pitches in Japan, and you can forget it.

Papelbon never proved that he was in the echelon of pitchers that would merit a team feeling like they only had 8 innings. Guys like Joe Nathan (95% save success last year) or Mariano Rivera (92%) or Francisco Rodriguez (92%) deserve that destinction. Papelbon, with a good but not great 85%, didn't lock it down as much as a good number of closers.

And that really shows how flukey the role of a closer is. Papelbon, unquestionably the best closer last year in terms of his peripherals, ranked in the middle of the pack last season in save success. While guys like Brad Lidge and Bobby Jenks, who outside of strikeouts had atrocious peripherals, each had a comperable or higher success rate when closing out games than Papelbon did (84% for Lidge, 91% for Jenks).

The fact that a guy with a 5.28ERA and 1.40WHIP closed out games with a similar success rate than a guy with a 0.92ERA and 0.78WHIP shows me that the closers role is largely a crapshoot.

 

[patriotspride]

Yes. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. It doesn't say a lot about your confidence in Papelbon as a starter if you think that Tavarez will only be a slight downgrade from him.

i never said that .are you back on crack cocaine again?

 

[Foley]

i never said that .are you back on crack cocaine again?

Well if you think that Papelbon is a significant upgrade to Tavarez than making the assumption that Tavarez would lose more than 4 games than Papelbon is not a stretch. And certianly not a claim that merits a "wow".

 

[patriotspride]

Well if you think that Papelbon is a significant upgrade to Tavarez than making the assumption that Tavarez would lose more than 4 games than Papelbon is not a stretch. And certianly not a claim that merits a "wow".

you don't decide what merits a wow and what doesnt.making stupid guarantees like you did always merits a wow

 

[BradyManny]

I don't understand how everyone views this as a phenominal idea. A starter who can win 14-16 games with an ERA in the low 4s is more valuable than a reliever who converts a save 85% of the time.

I'm with you completely. I absolutely HATE this move.

How can someone say something like "oh, it's just the fifth starter, it doesn't matter".

I challenge anyone to do either of the following:

- Prove there is a reason why a "fifth starter" matters less than any of the other four starters
- Prove to me why the 9th inning is more important than the 8th, 7th, 6th, and so on
- Prove why a closer is more important than that fifth starter
- Prove why 75 innings is more important than 200.
- Explain to me how many of those 75 innings actually matter (how many times did Papelbon come in with a 1 run lead?)

I really hate this move. I hate the FO for doing this for so many reasons. I think it makes them a bunch of F-ing cowards, risking a guy's shoulder b/c they're too afraid to go into the season without a "lights out" closer.

It would be one thing if Papelbon had been drafted and developed with the intention of being a closer, but thats not it. The aim has always been for him to be a starter, and a good one. People say "oh, he only has one good pitch, he should be a closer." BULLSHYT, he has always been developed to be a starter. Now we'll never know how good he could have been.


Does a closer really need to have a .92 ERA to be effective?! Give me a ****** break, what a waste of an amazing arm.

Here's a list of a few guys who had MORE saves than Papelbon last season & their ERAs...

Borowski: 3.75
Street: 3.31
Jones: 3.94
Jenks: 4.00

Between Pineiro, Tavarez, Donnelly, or anybody or any AVERAGE closer, you're probably talking about a difference of 4-6 blown saves in a season versus Papelbon. Of that, we probably lose 3.

Essentially, I'm saying Papelbon as a closer is worth about 3 wins above average.

Does anyone recall the stat of how are fifth starter did last season and how bad it was? It was well below .500. Papelbon as a starter would've been worth a hell of a lot more than 3 wins versus Tavarez, Gabbard, Hansack and whatever else they throw out there until they go ahead and rush Lester out there.

PS. if any one of our FOUR starters gets injured for any amount of time, and thats all we have now, the season is F'd and we're back into the situation we were last season.

 

[PatsMyBoyz!]

I'm with you completely. I absolutely HATE this move.

How can someone say something like "oh, it's just the fifth starter, it doesn't matter".

I challenge anyone to do either of the following:

- Prove there is a reason why a "fifth starter" matters less than any of the other four starters
- Prove to me why the 9th inning is more important than the 8th, 7th, 6th, and so on
- Prove why a closer is more important than that fifth starter
- Prove why 75 innings is more important than 200.
- Explain to me how many of those 75 innings actually matter (how many times did Papelbon come in with a 1 run lead?)

I really hate this move. I hate the FO for doing this for so many reasons. I think it makes them a bunch of F-ing cowards, risking a guy's shoulder b/c they're too afraid to go into the season without a "lights out" closer.

It would be one thing if Papelbon had been drafted and developed with the intention of being a closer, but thats not it. The aim has always been for him to be a starter, and a good one. People say "oh, he only has one good pitch, he should be a closer." BULLSHYT, he has always been developed to be a starter. Now we'll never know how good he could have been.


Does a closer really need to have a .92 ERA to be effective?! Give me a ****** break, what a waste of an amazing arm.

Here's a list of a few guys who had MORE saves than Papelbon last season & their ERAs...

Borowski: 3.75
Street: 3.31
Jones: 3.94
Jenks: 4.00

Between Pineiro, Tavarez, Donnelly, or anybody or any AVERAGE closer, you're probably talking about a difference of 4-6 blown saves in a season versus Papelbon. Of that, we probably lose 3.

Essentially, I'm saying Papelbon as a closer is worth about 3 wins above average.

Does anyone recall the stat of how are fifth starter did last season and how bad it was? It was well below .500. Papelbon as a starter would've been worth a hell of a lot more than 3 wins versus Tavarez, Gabbard, Hansack and whatever else they throw out there until they go ahead and rush Lester out there.

PS. if any one of our FOUR starters gets injured for any amount of time, and thats all we have now, the season is F'd and we're back into the situation we were last season.[/QUOTE]
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I'm glad to see others hate this move as much as I do. You pretty much said it all.

In order for this move to be successful,several things would have to happen. 1. no injuries to the other 4 (Wake's already had some kind of cramping situation in early March-I don't know if he's back yet. He had problems last year and he's 40 something-chances are good he'll have them again down the road)
2. The pen has to be strong enough so that Papelbon doesn't come in at the top of the 8th so often (and Timlin's already on the DL I believe,so he's probably not going to be 100% reliable)
3.They'll have to rush Lester-no wait,there's Matt Clement...
4.No more surprise problems from Beckett later in the season causing him to get pulled in the 4th
5. 7 innings from those 4 starters on a fairly consistent basis. 162 games is a long season,and 2 starters are 40+.

This was a short-sighted,reactionary decision and it just blows my mind that we're back to the revolving door at 5th starter after the debacle that ensued last year.
Yes,good closers are hard to find,but one reason they're so good is that they're used appropriately(see Mo Riveria's longevity-he didn't last this long by being overused),and unless most of those things listed above actually happen,Francona will have to use him in a similar fashion as last year.

FWIW,I've found myself supporting most all Epstein's decisions and I pretty much adopt a wait and see attitude because it's such a long season. But this announcement was very disappointing.

 

[BradyManny]

FWIW,I've found myself supporting most all Epstein's decisions and I pretty much adopt a wait and see attitude because it's such a long season. But this announcement was very disappointing.

This decision goes well beyond Theo, I think. Heck, it's Paps preference, but frankly, that doesn't matter. You have to do what's best for the team, and what's best for the team is for Papelbon to start.

Looking to the future, a rotation that has Dice-K, Paps, Beckett, Lester and then any one of the youngsters coming up in the next few years (Bowden, Buchholz, Bard) is going to be just amazing, not to mention cost-effective and wrapped up long term.

I peruse SOSH and somebody was saying this was best for building the pen long term. That seems silly to me, as Hansen and Cox both project as potential closers.

Another thing people are forgetting is that whoever this fifth starter is, or whatever combination of starters it is, they will likely combine for somewhere between 30-40 less innings than Papelbon would have.

That's 30-40 innings that the bullpen has to pitch instead. That's about half of the innings Papelbon will contribute to the pen.

The idea that his mental toughness and all that make him suited for a closer, BS. As Foley pointed out, Papelbon was only 13/19 in 1 run lead situations. Just strictly based on memory, nearly all of the runs Paps gave up came with 1-run leads. If you ignore his ridiculous ERA for a moment and just look at SV/SO/BS stats, Paps is just an above average closer. If anything, you could make an argument that since this guy gives up SO FEW RUNS and that most of the very few runs he does give up somehow happen to come with a 1-run lead, he is more suited to be a starter than to be a closer.

I think a lot of the positive reaction to this stupid move (see Glen Ordway) is predicated on the fact that Red Sox nation has this completely asinine belief that a bullpen should not give up ANY runs. If Schill goes 6 and gives up 3 runs, that's fine and dandy - but if he leaves with a 1 run lead and any member of the bullpen gives up that 1 run, you'll read something like the following on boston.com/sports message boards: "OH MY GOD, R BULLPEN SUX, CAN U BELEEVE THEY GAVE UP A RUN?! OH GEEZ. R PEN SUX SO MUCH. WHY DID TITO PUT HIM IN. PUT PAPELBON IN FOR EVERY INNING IN THE PEN. GEEZUS."