dryheat44
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
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I think this is it, unless a pick gets traded between now and the draft. Enjoy:
1 Houston - TRADE TO ATLANTA. Atlanta's spending way to much time with Clowney, and I think they've made the decision to get him, cost be damned. Let's figure on next year's #1 going to Houston, as Atlanta will bet on themselves to be much improved, and will hang on to this years #2 pick in this deep draft. There will likely be other compensation irrelevant to this mock. The pick is Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina.
2 St. Louis - The Rams would love to trade down here, and if anybody is hot for Mack, this is the spot. Would the Bills want to keep him in Buffalo. They'd probably love to, but not at the cost involved. Would Houston go back up? It would probably cost them most of what they just acquired, so that seems unlikely. Forced to stay here, Jeff Fisher goes with the bloodlines over the post-season riser. Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
3 Jacksonville - This pick hasn't changed yet. At this stage, Jacksonville needs to try to win games with defense. Khalil Mack DE Buffalo
4 Cleveland - TRADE TO OAKLAND. Raleigh McKenzie makes a slight trade up to get his man - Greg Robinson OT Auburn
5 Cleveland (from Oakland) - TRADE TO BUFFALO. While obviously Sammy Watkins would improve Cleveland, as he would every other team in the league, he's a luxury they really can't afford. Buffalo, on the other hand, needs someone exactly like him. Sammy Watkins WR Clemson. Again, the compensation won't affect this mock, so I'll leave it out.
6 Houston (via Atlanta) - I've changed my thinking on QBs here. I'm putting the Texans on Blake Bortles QB Central Florida.
7 Tampa Bay - Doesn't matter who the QB is, they'll look a lot better with Jackson and Mike Evans WR Texas A&M bookending the field.
8 Minnesota - I don't think Minnesota was planning on taking a QB here, but I don't think they anticipated Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M to be available. That's 3 Aggies in the top 8 picks. Alabama who?
9 Cleveland (from Buffalo) - TRADE TO CHICAGO. Cleveland is playing this game so beautifully, I fear I'm over-estimating Ray Farmer. I think the Bears are eyeballing Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh, and figure it unlikely he'll make it to 14. In this scenario, they have many picks in the third-through-fifth rounds.
10 Detroit - I think Eric Ebron could fall until late in the first, but Detroit 1) Didn't want Pettigrew back this year, 2) Let leak their infatuation with Watkins and Evans, whom they were unable to get, 3) Didn't want Pettigrew back this year, 4) Couldn't improve on Pettigrew in the free agent market, 5) Didn't want Pettigrew back this year, and 6) Still have Pettigrew as their starting tight end. Eric Ebron TE North Carolina.
11 Tennessee - Regardless of who's behind center, fortifying the offensive line is a prudent move. Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
12 NY Giants - The Giants also need reinforcements in the interior line positions. This dovetails nicely with the availability of Zack Martin OL Notre Dame
13 St. Louis - The Rams defense is quite obviously the strength of the team, but they could use another good corner to make them an elite unit. Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma St.
14 Cleveland (from Chicago) TRADE TO DALLAS - There's no way Jerruh Jones is going to resist trading up to make headlines...even if there's no good reason for doing so. Anthony Barr LB UCLA
15 Pittsburgh - Blah, Blah, Blah, Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan St
16 Cleveland (from Dallas) - We all know that the Browns need a quarterback, and they've been closely tied to Derek Carr. I'm going in another direction, though, and giving them the guy who not only looks the part, but played in a Pro-Style offense. -- Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
17 Baltimore - I had Nix going here before, and now that Hakuna Matata, has turned down a lucrative extension, I feel more solid in this projection. Experts say he's slipping, but he's a fairly unique player in this draft. People say that a wide-body with limited pass-rushing ability is of diminishing value in today's "Passing League", and I say Bull. If you, as a defense, cannot stop an opponent from running up the middle, they will do it over, and over, and over again, regardless of their passing ability. Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
18 NY Jets - Awesome -- I can finally give the Jets a defensive player in the first. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S Alabama can join former teammate Millner in the secondary and the Jets can go back to trying to win games 9-7.
19 Miami - The Dolphins are pretty well built at their skill positions and defense. They could use a linebacker and some offensive tackle help, and could potentially trade back if somebody wants to draft a QB here. Or they could pull the trigger on Morgan Moses. But I think the right play here is a WR, perhaps Odell Beckham WR LSU
20 Arizona - The Cardinals could go many different ways here (LB, OT, QB), but to score points in the NFC West, they need another playmaker. Brandin Cooks WR Oregon St is the call.
21 Green Bay - Once upon a time, the Packers -- already possessing a future HOF quarterback -- spend a first round pick -- possibly even #21 -- to nab a free-falling quarterback. That's not going to happen here. Playmaker Charles Woodson out, playmaker Calvin Pryor S Louisville in.
22 Philadelphia - Chip Kelly's devotion to offense might be somewhat overstated. They might want to replace DeSean (French for Of Sean), but the logical move is Timmy Jernigan DT Florida St
23 Kansas City - TRADE TO JACKSONVILLE. Jacksonville is probably (justifiably) concerned that Cincinnati could go QB here or that those teams at the top of the second could trade up starting now. Now, it's possible that Jacksonville could sit tight and take whomever's left of Bridgewater, Carr, Garoppolo, Murray or Savage, but with Kansas City looking to take on of the next tier receivers, and not a lot of trade activity here, Jacksonville can get a good deal to move up and get their choice. Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
24 Cincinnati - What this defense is missing is Ryan Shazier LB Ohio St.
25 San Diego - Everybody loves tall corners these days. Tall corners are the new black. But I'd still rather have a good small corner than an average tall corner, so with apologies to Roby and Fuller, I'm taking the superior cover guy. Jason Verrett CB Texas Christian
26 Cleveland - I think that CJ Mosely LB Alabama would look good next to Dansby in the middle of the defense.
27 New Orleans - The defense having been largely rebuilt, it's time for the Saints to replenish the skill positions. Marquise Lee WR USC
28 Carolina - The Panthers are fairly desperate for a WR they can pull off the shelf and plug into the opening day lineup. In this draft, that's Allen Robinson WR Penn St
29 New England - Right now, I have three guys left with first round grades in Ealy, Hageman, and Roby, and I'd listen to arguments for Su'a-Filo, Ward, and maybe even Latimer. Derek Carr, among other QBs, is here for the taking, but the first team to have interest would be Oakland, and I'm not sure I would drop back that far without a significant premium. For me, this comes down to what type of player (Ealy or Hageman) would help more -- a rotational DE and designated pass rusher, or an unstoppable interior penetrator with maybe some schematic versatility, and how comfortable BB is with their character. I think both are valuable, but I think someone to come in and spell Jones and Ninkovich every so often and is squeaky-clean off the field wins. Kony Ealy DE Missouri I do also want to postulate that Derrick Morgan of the Titans, who was one of my favorite players his draft year, doesn't seem to fit in their new 3-4 defense. If BB trades a late pick for him, which I'd advocate, this pick would swing to Hageman.
30 San Francisco - They could use speed at receiver (Moncrief), a 5 technique (Hageman), some Aldon Smith insurance (Ford) and another cornerback (Roby). I guess if I'm the brain trust here, I go with the unique player in Rashede Hageman DL Minnesota, who can rotate with Justin Smith and ultimately take over for him and upholding that terrifying presence at that spot.
31 Denver - There are some interesting pieces on defense which the Broncos would benefit from, but I think some interior protection for Manning is the first order of business. Xavier Su'a-Filo G UCLA
32 Seattle - This pick should either go to an offensive lineman or a cornerback. I think the versatility and talent of Joel Bitonio OL Nevada pushes him into the first round.
1 Houston - TRADE TO ATLANTA. Atlanta's spending way to much time with Clowney, and I think they've made the decision to get him, cost be damned. Let's figure on next year's #1 going to Houston, as Atlanta will bet on themselves to be much improved, and will hang on to this years #2 pick in this deep draft. There will likely be other compensation irrelevant to this mock. The pick is Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina.
2 St. Louis - The Rams would love to trade down here, and if anybody is hot for Mack, this is the spot. Would the Bills want to keep him in Buffalo. They'd probably love to, but not at the cost involved. Would Houston go back up? It would probably cost them most of what they just acquired, so that seems unlikely. Forced to stay here, Jeff Fisher goes with the bloodlines over the post-season riser. Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
3 Jacksonville - This pick hasn't changed yet. At this stage, Jacksonville needs to try to win games with defense. Khalil Mack DE Buffalo
4 Cleveland - TRADE TO OAKLAND. Raleigh McKenzie makes a slight trade up to get his man - Greg Robinson OT Auburn
5 Cleveland (from Oakland) - TRADE TO BUFFALO. While obviously Sammy Watkins would improve Cleveland, as he would every other team in the league, he's a luxury they really can't afford. Buffalo, on the other hand, needs someone exactly like him. Sammy Watkins WR Clemson. Again, the compensation won't affect this mock, so I'll leave it out.
6 Houston (via Atlanta) - I've changed my thinking on QBs here. I'm putting the Texans on Blake Bortles QB Central Florida.
7 Tampa Bay - Doesn't matter who the QB is, they'll look a lot better with Jackson and Mike Evans WR Texas A&M bookending the field.
8 Minnesota - I don't think Minnesota was planning on taking a QB here, but I don't think they anticipated Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M to be available. That's 3 Aggies in the top 8 picks. Alabama who?
9 Cleveland (from Buffalo) - TRADE TO CHICAGO. Cleveland is playing this game so beautifully, I fear I'm over-estimating Ray Farmer. I think the Bears are eyeballing Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh, and figure it unlikely he'll make it to 14. In this scenario, they have many picks in the third-through-fifth rounds.
10 Detroit - I think Eric Ebron could fall until late in the first, but Detroit 1) Didn't want Pettigrew back this year, 2) Let leak their infatuation with Watkins and Evans, whom they were unable to get, 3) Didn't want Pettigrew back this year, 4) Couldn't improve on Pettigrew in the free agent market, 5) Didn't want Pettigrew back this year, and 6) Still have Pettigrew as their starting tight end. Eric Ebron TE North Carolina.
11 Tennessee - Regardless of who's behind center, fortifying the offensive line is a prudent move. Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
12 NY Giants - The Giants also need reinforcements in the interior line positions. This dovetails nicely with the availability of Zack Martin OL Notre Dame
13 St. Louis - The Rams defense is quite obviously the strength of the team, but they could use another good corner to make them an elite unit. Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma St.
14 Cleveland (from Chicago) TRADE TO DALLAS - There's no way Jerruh Jones is going to resist trading up to make headlines...even if there's no good reason for doing so. Anthony Barr LB UCLA
15 Pittsburgh - Blah, Blah, Blah, Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan St
16 Cleveland (from Dallas) - We all know that the Browns need a quarterback, and they've been closely tied to Derek Carr. I'm going in another direction, though, and giving them the guy who not only looks the part, but played in a Pro-Style offense. -- Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
17 Baltimore - I had Nix going here before, and now that Hakuna Matata, has turned down a lucrative extension, I feel more solid in this projection. Experts say he's slipping, but he's a fairly unique player in this draft. People say that a wide-body with limited pass-rushing ability is of diminishing value in today's "Passing League", and I say Bull. If you, as a defense, cannot stop an opponent from running up the middle, they will do it over, and over, and over again, regardless of their passing ability. Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
18 NY Jets - Awesome -- I can finally give the Jets a defensive player in the first. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S Alabama can join former teammate Millner in the secondary and the Jets can go back to trying to win games 9-7.
19 Miami - The Dolphins are pretty well built at their skill positions and defense. They could use a linebacker and some offensive tackle help, and could potentially trade back if somebody wants to draft a QB here. Or they could pull the trigger on Morgan Moses. But I think the right play here is a WR, perhaps Odell Beckham WR LSU
20 Arizona - The Cardinals could go many different ways here (LB, OT, QB), but to score points in the NFC West, they need another playmaker. Brandin Cooks WR Oregon St is the call.
21 Green Bay - Once upon a time, the Packers -- already possessing a future HOF quarterback -- spend a first round pick -- possibly even #21 -- to nab a free-falling quarterback. That's not going to happen here. Playmaker Charles Woodson out, playmaker Calvin Pryor S Louisville in.
22 Philadelphia - Chip Kelly's devotion to offense might be somewhat overstated. They might want to replace DeSean (French for Of Sean), but the logical move is Timmy Jernigan DT Florida St
23 Kansas City - TRADE TO JACKSONVILLE. Jacksonville is probably (justifiably) concerned that Cincinnati could go QB here or that those teams at the top of the second could trade up starting now. Now, it's possible that Jacksonville could sit tight and take whomever's left of Bridgewater, Carr, Garoppolo, Murray or Savage, but with Kansas City looking to take on of the next tier receivers, and not a lot of trade activity here, Jacksonville can get a good deal to move up and get their choice. Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
24 Cincinnati - What this defense is missing is Ryan Shazier LB Ohio St.
25 San Diego - Everybody loves tall corners these days. Tall corners are the new black. But I'd still rather have a good small corner than an average tall corner, so with apologies to Roby and Fuller, I'm taking the superior cover guy. Jason Verrett CB Texas Christian
26 Cleveland - I think that CJ Mosely LB Alabama would look good next to Dansby in the middle of the defense.
27 New Orleans - The defense having been largely rebuilt, it's time for the Saints to replenish the skill positions. Marquise Lee WR USC
28 Carolina - The Panthers are fairly desperate for a WR they can pull off the shelf and plug into the opening day lineup. In this draft, that's Allen Robinson WR Penn St
29 New England - Right now, I have three guys left with first round grades in Ealy, Hageman, and Roby, and I'd listen to arguments for Su'a-Filo, Ward, and maybe even Latimer. Derek Carr, among other QBs, is here for the taking, but the first team to have interest would be Oakland, and I'm not sure I would drop back that far without a significant premium. For me, this comes down to what type of player (Ealy or Hageman) would help more -- a rotational DE and designated pass rusher, or an unstoppable interior penetrator with maybe some schematic versatility, and how comfortable BB is with their character. I think both are valuable, but I think someone to come in and spell Jones and Ninkovich every so often and is squeaky-clean off the field wins. Kony Ealy DE Missouri I do also want to postulate that Derrick Morgan of the Titans, who was one of my favorite players his draft year, doesn't seem to fit in their new 3-4 defense. If BB trades a late pick for him, which I'd advocate, this pick would swing to Hageman.
30 San Francisco - They could use speed at receiver (Moncrief), a 5 technique (Hageman), some Aldon Smith insurance (Ford) and another cornerback (Roby). I guess if I'm the brain trust here, I go with the unique player in Rashede Hageman DL Minnesota, who can rotate with Justin Smith and ultimately take over for him and upholding that terrifying presence at that spot.
31 Denver - There are some interesting pieces on defense which the Broncos would benefit from, but I think some interior protection for Manning is the first order of business. Xavier Su'a-Filo G UCLA
32 Seattle - This pick should either go to an offensive lineman or a cornerback. I think the versatility and talent of Joel Bitonio OL Nevada pushes him into the first round.
