AdamJT13 predicts comp picks (5th, 6th, 6th, 7th)

[Box_O_Rocks]

[BTW, why does Polian have to whine so much if he's on the damn committee.])

Political gamesmanship 101, he has been tabled or voted down in committee and is trying to influence his fellows through public channels. Like any spoiled child the bastich wants what he wants and he's going to get it through repitition and irritation.

 

[captain stone]

This is why I was so upset about Givens' season-ending injury. Firstly, because DG's a good kid who worked extra-hard to make himself a valued commodity, and, unlike Meion, he left NE with no hard feelings. Secondly, because his lack of production would adversely effect our compensatory renumeration.

p.s.: Why should the effin dolts receive a 3rd for Edgerrin James? He didn't do jack shyte for the Cardinals...while we only get a 6th for the Vinitraitor? Un-effin-believable. The NFL's love affair with the dolts continues.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

It's a pretty safe bet to say that the Pats will not be getting any comp picks next year. If you think about it, the spending spree makes sense, once you signed Thomas, you were pretty much not going to get any comp picks, so you might as well go out and sign as many FA as you can.

Look for some draft day trades which garner the Pats extra picks in the 2008 draft to compesate for the lack of comp picks next year.

 

[the taildragger]

Also disturbing is that our 2 biggest rivals - Indy and SD - are each projected to receive a 3rd.

wouldn't surprise me if SD got a low 2nd rounder for Brees...they probably deserve it....obviously that would give them leverage to get whoever they want this year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

wouldn't surprise me if SD got a low 2nd rounder for Brees...they probably deserve it....obviously that would give them leverage to get whoever they want this year.

It'd surprise a lot of other people, though, since the rules say comp picks start at the end of round 3.

 

[Lampshade]

This is why I was so upset about Givens' season-ending injury. Firstly, because DG's a good kid who worked extra-hard to make himself a valued commodity, and, unlike Meion, he left NE with no hard feelings. Secondly, because his lack of production would adversely effect our compensatory renumeration.

p.s.: Why should the effin dolts receive a 3rd for Edgerrin James? He didn't do jack shyte for the Cardinals...while we only get a 6th for the Vinitraitor? Un-effin-believable. The NFL's love affair with the dolts continues.

I'm intrigued to see what we get for Vinatieri. I can't think of a similar circumstance where a player was so highly valued around the league, so productive for his team, but due to being a kicker didn't register that high on contract average. On the other hand I guess if teams valued him more they would have paid him more!

His case should certainly prove one way or another whether contract size is BY FAR the most important consideration.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

wouldn't surprise me if SD got a low 2nd rounder for Brees...they probably deserve it....obviously that would give them leverage to get whoever they want this year.

The comp picks start at the end of the third round.

I used AdamJTs formula back in Feb and came up with this:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=50690&page=2

In the thread we assumed that not only will San Diego get a third for Brees, they should also land at least a fourth for Hallen, and Reche's number warrant another pick for them too.

 

[solman]

I'm intrigued to see what we get for Vinatieri. I can't think of a similar circumstance where a player was so highly valued around the league, so productive for his team, but due to being a kicker didn't register that high on contract average. On the other hand I guess if teams valued him more they would have paid him more!

His case should certainly prove one way or another whether contract size is BY FAR the most important consideration.

Teams pay players based on how important they think the players are to competitiveness. If having a better kicker could turn an average team into a great team, franchises would be willing to pay $5-6M/year to get a pro bowl kicker. Kickers don't make this much of a difference, and consequently franchises aren't willing to pay.

Also, I think that the data from previous years has been sufficient to establish that contract size is far and away the biggest determinant.

 

[Isaac]

The fact that a team can't trade these comp picks hurts a team like the Pats. The Pats are a deep team with realistic playoff aspirations. I don't understand why forcing teams to draft what may essentially be camp fodder is good for those players and good for the league. Many will get cut late in camp and have to drift around the league without the benefit of a full training camp with there new team. Allow market conditions to dictate the value of these extra picks by including them in the tradeable market.

I completely agree. Does anyone understand the justification for why they can't be traded? Someone had to have suggested it at some point, I don't see any reason for it.

 

[AdamJT13]

So it looks like if Givens was paid an extra $200K/yr we'd surely have a fourth.

Not necessarily. Givens missed a lot of time with injuries -- he played only 23 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps, played only one play on special teams and got placed on IR on Nov. 14.

Last year, I didn't lower players' values enough when they had a low percentage of playing time, even because of injuries. So I went back over the past few seasons to try to pinpoint how much to lower them, and I came up with a percentage range (I should be able to narrow it somewhat after this year's comps are announced). Anyhow, Givens' playing time dropped his value below the other fifth-round picks. It would take about another $600,000 per year to put him above the other fifth-round picks, which may or may not be enough to put his comp in the fourth round.

But like I said in my post, the NFL might not have raised the value ranges as much as I think they will, and Givens (and other projected fifth-round comps) might be worth a fourth-round pick anyway.

 

[AdamJT13]

I'm intrigued to see what we get for Vinatieri. I can't think of a similar circumstance where a player was so highly valued around the league, so productive for his team, but due to being a kicker didn't register that high on contract average. On the other hand I guess if teams valued him more they would have paid him more!

His case should certainly prove one way or another whether contract size is BY FAR the most important consideration.

I think the cases of Priest Holmes and Kyle Vanden Bosch already proved that.

Holmes led the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage and went to the Pro Bowl in his first season after signing with Kansas City, but all Baltimore got for him was a sixth-round pick. Vanden Bosch had 12.5 sacks and played in the Pro Bowl in his first season with Tennessee, but Arizona didn't even get a comp pick for him because his contract was so small.

Unless the NFL completely changed the formula during the CBA negotiations, contract value is the biggest factor.

 

[Fixit]

The lesson to be learned by fans who salivate over compensatory

picks is that you get less than 50 cents on the dollar for the players

that you lose. The Pats will be lucky if they get one player who

can make the 53 man roster from these picks. The picks do provide a little

flexibility in trading away a late round non- compensatory pick to move

up in a round or obtain a 2008 pick.

Additional picks are never a bad thing.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Adam:
any thoughts on Vinateri's pick going up a round due to him being the highest paid player at his position and two prior Pro-Bowls, or does that stuff not count.

 

[AdamJT13]

In the thread we assumed that not only will San Diego get a third for Brees, they should also land at least a fourth for Hallen, and Reche's number warrant another pick for them too.

Hallen retired during training camp, so he's out of the equation. And I projected San Diego getting a comp for Caldwell -- unless Jamar Fletcher doesn't qualify -- as well as Justin Peelle (and Brees).

 

[Oswlek]

I completely agree. Does anyone understand the justification for why they can't be traded? Someone had to have suggested it at some point, I don't see any reason for it.

You received the pick because you lost a player. Now the league says we will give you a freebie (yes, he likely won't be as good as the guy lost) as long as you pick someone. It seems a little antiquated, but if you follow the logic it makes some sense.

BTW, it is very easy to trade a comp pick. Just make a deal with a team. Call them when you are on the clock. Pick who they want, and then trade the rights to that player as part of the deal.

 

[Lampshade]

I think the cases of Priest Holmes and Kyle Vanden Bosch already proved that.

Holmes led the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage and went to the Pro Bowl in his first season after signing with Kansas City, but all Baltimore got for him was a sixth-round pick. Vanden Bosch had 12.5 sacks and played in the Pro Bowl in his first season with Tennessee, but Arizona didn't even get a comp pick for him because his contract was so small.

Unless the NFL completely changed the formula during the CBA negotiations, contract value is the biggest factor.

Thanks for the info Adam. Much appreciated, even if it's not what I wanted to hear.

 

[Isaac]

You received the pick because you lost a player. Now the league says we will give you a freebie (yes, he likely won't be as good as the guy lost) as long as you pick someone. It seems a little antiquated, but if you follow the logic it makes some sense.

BTW, it is very easy to trade a comp pick. Just make a deal with a team. Call them when you are on the clock. Pick who they want, and then trade the rights to that player as part of the deal.

I hear your argument, but in the grand scheme of things it still doesn't make sense to me.

As for trading comp picks, doesn't the NFL do something to prevent this practice? It doesn't seem to happen.

 

[AdamJT13]

Adam:
any thoughts on Vinateri's pick going up a round due to him being the highest paid player at his position and two prior Pro-Bowls, or does that stuff not count.

Nothing in the previous comp picks (1993-2006) leads me to think that would be the case.

 

[DaBruinz]

there is no way all these guys can make the team...we should trade some of them for a higher pick or for next year. then again none of these picks are worth very much, 1 5th, 2 6ths, and 1 7th roughly = 1 4th

You can't trade Comp picks.

 

[DaBruinz]

I've been saying 5, 6, 6, 7 for a while now (around 1 month), but for some reason people didn't believe me.

Gee, maybe because I've been saying a 4th, 2-6ths and a 7th since last September and because Pioli mentioned he felt the Pats would get a 4th rounder as well.