It's been like this for the past few years. I've been guessing wrong for years, and now I've stopped guessing.
For the first rounder, any of the following are possible:
RB - It was a wake up when it became clear that Dillon was released based on a BB/SP plan, not at Dillon's request as originally reported. Fans and GMs always say a player has "lost a step" as a way to justify launching a player they dont like, but in the case of Dillon, it's actually true. Sure, Morris was signed, but I dont see him as a replacement for Dillon so much as a depth chart backfill for Patrick Pass. We're fine for the season with Moroney, Faulk, Evans and Morris, but there is room for one more.
TE - Sure, they signed Kyle Brady, but he cannot everything that Graham did. Even best case, he is not a solution for more than a year or two. Thomas and Mills are cut from a different cloth than Graham and Brady. Why do BB/SP like TE so much in the first round? Because the complete TE is the ultimate in versatility: power, speed, hands, routes, pass rush blocking, blocking downfield. Also, the Pats are trying to maintain and build on the 2-TE offense schemes that few teams can matchup against.
OLB - Thomas, Colvin, Vrable and Woods are a foursome as good as we've ever had. But Vrable brings inside/outside skills, and if the Pats fall in love with a player like Woodley, Spencer or Moss, they will bring the talent into camp, and figure out how to get all the talent onto the field. Given how hard it is to find young talent to fit the scheme, if BB/SP think they've got a guy, they will be opportunistic.
DT/NT - I could see the Pats drafting a NT in the first round, to split time with Wilfork and provide some insurance. I just dont see anyone in the draft class who fits the profile.
ILB - This position isn't solved, but it seems likely that the front office will fill with veterans like Seau, if they dont find a more lasting solution. BB is on record saying that they have reviewed their scouting profile for LBs, to see if they are being too strict in their draft target. Fact is, the Pats expect their LBs to be the complete package, and those guys only come by every few years. Hopefully this is the year. If not, BB is nothing if not patient.
CB - I've been thinking for years that "this is the year" we take a franchise corner. Sometime in the last few years, Astante transformed from a nickleback into an elite corner... and I actually think Hobbs is the better player. Neither one is a first rounder. BB has shown his willingness to spent big money on a corner, in bidding seriously for Ty Law last year. Again, if the right guy falls, there's room for him on the team.
S - Wilson is solid. Sanders is developing. Hawkins is capable. None are the type of field general Harrison was, or Milloy before him. Harrison hasn't been reliable the last two seasons, and is on the cusp of retirement, anyway. The key to drafting at this position is ability, but also (more importantly) on-field leadership.
The team doesn't have any urgent needs, but it has plenty of upgrade opportunities. Especially for the right person. Needs to be smart, physical, dedicated, mature, versatile and productive.
QB - spending a first rounder for a backup to Brady would be the ultimate luxury... and it would break the salary cap for no good reason.
OL - OT, OC and OG are all deep with youth and talent. BB has established a process of bringing mid and late rounders, and undrafted guys into Foxboro, and coaching them into NFL players. I expect we will continue to bring youth in, and then sending young veterans like Gorin and Ashworth to other teams for draft picks and compensatory selections.
WR - with the flurry of spending, we have speed, size, youth, hands... so much that we're going to have trouble getting Troy Brown on the field. The only roster space is on the Practice Squad.
DE - youth, talent and veteran experience. There really is nothing more to be wished for.
